Predictions on Worlds in each discipline

[Coltrocks12]

I have looked through the forum and don't see a prediction thread. I just want your thoughts on who to watch for. I watched Nationals but my sister had just died from cancer and with her last couple of months to live I didn't watch much of any of the Grand Prix and did not watch the GPF. Thanks in advance.

 

[HanDomi]

I’m so sorry for your loss Coltrocks :no:



My thoughts on worlds

In ladies it will be battle between Elena and Liza

In dance I predict battle between W/P and P/C

In pairs.... Duhamel / Radford seems to be favourites, Stolbova/ Klimov and Kavaguti/Smirnov for 2nd, but I hope Sui/Han will strike the worlds with huge quad throw and will be in mix for title

In men ... for gold I predict battle between Hanyu and Hanyu's preparation/health state, 2nd should be Javier and 3rd is wide open. But Denis Ten as always will bang with LP from nowhere and take 3rd.

 

[amc987]

Sending my condolences for your loss, Coltrocks.

Here are my thoughts:

Ladies': Some combination of Liza, Elena, Ashley, and Gracie will be on the podium. I guess Pogorilaya could be up there too, but her components are justifiably lower than the other contenders', and I don't see the judges facilitating a Russian sweep. I think 2 Russians and an American is the smart bet.

Men's: If Hanyu skates, he should take it. Javier and Denis Ten are also threats for the podium. I'd rather not put this into the universe lest it come true, but Voronov and Kovtun also have a good chance at 3rd place.

Pairs: Duhamel/Radford, Stolbova/Klimov, and Kavaguti/Smirnov will be on the podium unless one of the Chinese teams plays spoiler.

Dance: Whoever has the more politically savvy coaches of Weaver/Poje, Papadakis/Cizeron, and Chock/Bates. Cappellini and Lanotte could also be up there if they pull their lives together in time for Shanghai.

 

[kresslia]

Ladies: Liza (the favourite) vs Elena for gold, Ashley vs. Gracie vs. Anna for bronze.
Men: Hanyu for gold if he's healthy, Javier for silver, who knows about the rest. Ten? Another Japanese man? Maybe even Voronov/Kovtun? (
Pairs: D/R (the favourite) vs. S/K for gold, Pang/Tong have an outside shot. Other favourites would be Kavaguti/Smirnov and Sui/Han.
Dance: W/P (the favourite) vs. P/C vs. C/B

 

[MaxSwagg]

Ladies: Liza for gold, Elena silver, Gracie for bronze

Men: Hanyu for gold (probably has a 2-3 fall buffer in the FS alone), Javi silver, a number of people for bronze

Pairs: D/R gold rolleye, S/K silver, a Chinese team for bronze; K/S will probably bomb.

 

[Sandpiper]

My condolences, Coltrocks.

As for your question...

Men: Hanyu should take it. Who knows what state he's in after surgery, but none of the other men are stepping it up. Javi should be good for the podium, as his GOE and PCS remain high; however, his performances at Europeans were far from convincing. Denis Ten hasn't yet gotten it together, but he never seems to early in the season, so I expect him on the World podium anyway. Otherwise, Voronov or Kovtun could take a spot.

Ladies: Probably Elena Radionova and Elizaveta Tuktamysheva fighting for the gold. Ashley Wagner won't be far behind, after her incredible LPs from GPF and Nationals. Other challengers include Gracie Gold and Anna Pogorilaya.

Pairs: Duhamel/Radford will likely win. Stolbova/Klimov and Kavaguti/Smirnov will duke it out for silver, but both of them have messed up at various times, and if they do one of the Chinese teams could be on the podium (most likely Sui/Han, who are the most consistent).

Ice Dance: I see Weaver/Poje winning barring a big error, and Papadakis/Cizeron fighting for silver with Chock/Bates.

 

[meem]

I'm so sorry for your loss, Coltrocks.

With regard to predictions for Worlds, since I've done so poorly re: US Nationals (except for Ashley winning gold and the easy one--Chock/Bates for gold) I'm only going out on a limb for Ice Dance and predict W/P...fingers crossed; I've always enjoyed their skating skills and their look altho' I must confess I'd be thrilled to see the Shib Sibs win (but I know that won't happen).

 

[TontoK]

Here are mine:

Woman: 2 Russians and an American on the podium. Does it really matter which ones? None of them will be remembered as great in 10 years. They're the best currently, but nothing to get overly excited about.

Men: Hanyu is the obvious choice, but I'm not getting the love for Javi. If he performs as he did for most of the season and at Euros, he won't make the podium. Dennis Ten is a bigtime, big event skater. I think he's more likely choice for silver. I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I also don't see it as out of the question for an American to sneak onto the podium... provided the hit their programs when it really matters. Farris and Rippon have the technical goods to contend, especially if the event is as sloppy as most of the men's events have been late in the season.

Pairs: Les Canadiens.

Dance: Going against form here. I'm calling it for the French. Ice Dance has become very NA-centric, and I just don't think the judges are going to continue that trend. Neither the Americans nor the Canadians can hold a candle to to V/M or D/W, so the time to shift some of the focus back to Europe is sooner rather than later.

 

[Coltrocks12]

Thanks everyone for the heads up to who to watch and for the condolences. Nationals was tough because my sister was even a bigger skating fan than me and we used to watch together.

 

[Sk8erGeek]

I'll post for each US Championships winner my predictions.

Ashley Wagner: SP 4th place minimum FP 3rd place minimum Final Result 3rd Place minimum Combined Total Score: about 198 minimum

 

[Snow63]

P/C will win ID gold medals. Shocker.
Wagner will be on ladies podium.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

My condolences for your loss too, Coltrocks12.

Men: Hanyu is the obvious choice, but I'm not getting the love for Javi. If he performs as he did for most of the season and at Euros, he won't make the podium. Dennis Ten is a bigtime, big event skater. I think he's more likely choice for silver. I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I also don't see it as out of the question for an American to sneak onto the podium... provided the hit their programs when it really matters. Farris and Rippon have the technical goods to contend, especially if the event is as sloppy as most of the men's events have been late in the season.

Pretty sure when people say 'the bronze is wide open', the possibility of an american man making the podium is included. IMO, Javi should get silver if he skates up to his potential, but I'm not very optimistic about it. Denis is very inconsistent too. I wouldn't even be that surprised if both wouldn't make the podium.
Also, both in 2011 and 2012 the bronze went to a man skating at his 1st worlds (Artur and Yuzu). And to a lesser extent, Tatsuki in 2014 (he was at the Olys before and was a senior for longer than Artur and Yuzu, but it was still his first (and only ) worlds experience). Denis in 2013 had been to worlds before, but it was still a very huge surprise that he came so close to even winning. Given that trend, it would surprise me more if we didn't have a 'nobody-saw-him-coming' guy on the podium.
How about world newcomers Jason, Josh or Nam for bronze? Or someone from the more experienced guard like Rippon, Mura, Voronov or Kovtun to get as far as silver? Han Yan is also skating at home and has scored 90+ in the SP before, that could happen too.

 

[nguyhm]

Coltrocks12 I'm very sorry for your loss. My condolences to you and your family!
I'm most excited on watching the ladies this year. Liza and Elena will be fighting for the gold. I hope Liza can deliver a similar program as the one in EC, absolutely amazing. Anna, Gracie and Ashley will be fighting for bronze, my personal wish would be Ashley. Yuzu will probably win gold. The podium placements for silver and bronze will be fought between Javi, Sergei, Maxim and the americans. I hope Kavaguti and Smirnoff will medal, no matter which color. The contenders for pairs will be Duhamel/Radford, Stolbova/Klimov and K&S. As for Ice dance the gold would probably W/P. P/C, C/B, I/Z and C/P will fight for the other two medals.

 

[Mrs. P]

Pretty sure when people say 'the bronze is wide open', the possibility of an american man making the podium is included. IMO, Javi should get silver if he skates up to his potential, but I'm not very optimistic about it. Denis is very inconsistent too. I wouldn't even be that surprised if both wouldn't make the podium.
Also, both in 2011 and 2012 the bronze went to a man skating at his 1st worlds (Artur and Yuzu). And to a lesser extent, Tatsuki in 2014 (he was at the Olys before and was a senior for longer than Artur and Yuzu, but it was still his first (and only ) worlds experience). Denis in 2013 had been to worlds before, but it was still a very huge surprise that he came so close to even winning. Given that trend, it would surprise me more if we didn't have a 'nobody-saw-him-coming' guy on the podium.
How about world newcomers Jason, Josh or Nam for bronze? Or someone from the more experienced guard like Rippon, Mura, Voronov or Kovtun to get as far as silver? Han Yan is also skating at home and has scored 90+ in the SP before, that could happen too.

Yeah, that's why I'm avoiding playing any predictions games for the men, LOL.

Honestly given the score averages/medians/etc for the men this season, honestly places 2-12 could go in any order.

So I've been keeping a list of median/average scores for ISU competitions (GP and Euros) here's what I got so far:

Average
Fernandez: 256.57
Hanyu: 251.84
Mura 241.87
Vovnov: 241.56
Kovtun: 241.21
Brown: 234.87
--
Ten 230.51
Menshov 229.13
Ge: 228.67
Nguyen: 227.49
Brezina 223.19
Rippon 213.57

Median (middle score; often same as average)
Fernandez: 258.20
Kovtun 242.91
Voronov 240.59
Hanyu 237.55
Mura 235.37
Brown 234.87
--
Ten 230.51
Menshov 230.51
Ge 228.67
Nguyen 227.05
Brezina 220.11
Rippon 213.67

Personal Best

Hanyu 288.16
Fernandez 265.01
Mura 255.81
Voronov 252.00
Ten 249.94
Kovtun 243.35
--
Brezina 241.23
Ge: 238.05
Brown: 237.17
Menshov:233.22
Nguyen: 232.24
Rippon 225.42


Not included in Top 12 lists, but also factors: Liebers, Yan, Kozuka, Farris, Amodio

tl;dr: I would be hard pressed to predict anything. I say Yuruzu for gold and super wild fun adventure for placements 2 to 24.

 

[noskates]

Wow Mrs. P - thank you! That really makes it interesting.

I don't think Hanyu is going to podium. I think his body has been through way too much recently. Not saying he'll never win again, I just think Worlds is too soon for him. I really, really wish Javi would put together 2 great programs. I love watching him skate. And I would dearly like to see Rippon get in the top 5. I think it would do so much for his confidence. (and of course I always want Jason to do well......)

 

[Krislite]

Here are mine:

Woman: 2 Russians and an American on the podium. Does it really matter which ones? None of them will be remembered as great in 10 years. They're the best currently, but nothing to get overly excited about.
[...]

Ouch. A little too soon to declare them as forgettable, no? Don't we still mention Surya Bonaly around here once in a while? ;-)

Anyway, this year's Worlds podium could be more remarkable in that it may be the first Worlds to not have any Asian lady since 2005! :shocked:

 

[aa456]

Ouch. A little too soon to declare them as forgettable, no? Don't we still mention Surya Bonaly around here once in a while? ;-)

Anyway, this year's Worlds podium could be more remarkable in that it may be the first Worlds to not have any Asian lady since 2005! :shocked:

I would love for Satoko to prove this wrong but alas..her jumps are tinyyyy and she doesn't get much PCS love

 

[xibsuarz]

Since I only know about singles, I'll just predict those two:

Women: Tukstamysheva and Radionova will battle for 1st and 2nd (rotting for Liza, her FS is mindblowing, although Elena's eye-catching SP could give her a good head start). I'll say Pogorilaya, Wagner or Gold for 3rd place, but I'm betting on Ashley (I like her skating at Nats).

Men: Hanyu's surgery was a minor one, he's back at training and landing his quads. So I think he'll most likely take the gold, I dare to say he can have a couple of falls in the FS and still win. And unless something really extraordinary happens, Fernandez will take silver. Yeah he struggles with consistency, but let's be honest, everyone at the men's field is struggling with that right now (you could rule out the Americans from that, but they are still below Javier in both TES and PCS). Javier has one of the highest TES right now (I dare to say, only second to Yuzuru) so I doubt he will have someone threatening to take that spot from him (if he skates decent enough). For bronze, I'd say Kovtun has the best chance, his FS and SP are very ambitious (but I doubt his GOEs will do him any favor, his jumps are not as clean). Voronov is also in a good position if he doesn't pop his jumps like in Euros, and even the Americans but they would need to have the skates of their lives (Nats level or above) to pose a threat to the Russian guys.

 

[Rissa]

I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I also don't see it as out of the question for an American to sneak onto the podium... provided the hit their programs when it really matters. Farris and Rippon have the technical goods to contend, especially if the event is as sloppy as most of the men's events have been late in the season..

I was about to ask why nobody takes into consideration American men. If Farris or Rippon have good two days, they have as much chances for podium as anyone. They could even beat Javi who is far from infallible, although Hanyu is probably out of reach (he would have to be in a really bad form not to get onto the podium but it could happen) and they seem to have the wherewhitals to go had to head with Kovtun and Voronov.

Oddly enough, whoever podiums, I hope Denis Ten will be able to pull off his trick and get there. I have such a weakness for his skating.

So I've been keeping a list of median/average scores for ISU competitions (GP and Euros) here's what I got so far:

< snip>

tl;dr: I would be hard pressed to predict anything. I say Yuruzu for gold and super wild fun adventure for placements 2 to 24.

By your averages, it's Javi for the gold!

I dare to say he can have a couple of falls in the FS and still win.

Heh, I think no more than two and that only if other guys have a few major screw-ups too. But realistically speaking, they will, so.

Javier has one of the highest TES right now (I dare to say, only second to Yuzuru)

With Yuzuru's simplified layout, isn't Javier's TES actually higher?

And unless something really extraordinary happens, Fernandez will take silver. Yeah he struggles with consistency, but let's be honest, everyone at the men's field is struggling with that right now

Isn't that true.

I kinda like that situation though, despite all the mess-ups. The uncertainty makes it exciting for me. Who will fall on what today and will they manage to make up for it tomorrow?

 

[HanDomi]

With Yuzuru's simplified layout, isn't Javier's TES actually higher?

Yuzuru simplified layout has the highest BV in the field
He scored 104 TES in GPF with fall on last lutz, and Javier scored 85 with some mistakes ( i don't remember which one it was ).

He has mistakes buffer over others even if they skate perfectly, but it depends on what elements those mistakes happen. He has two huge 3A combos late in program that are giving him a lot points