Ryan Bradley NEEDS a New LP!

[Mathman]

What does a federation do to promote the fortunes of their designated "anchor guy?" Will they lobby the judges to give lower scores to Bradley and transfer the excess over to Dornbush?

 

[Bluebonnet]

Thanks, Doris! That was a valuable analysis, like many of your posts!

Agree that Bradley is the top quad guy in US right now.

However, he is hardly a consistent skater. Consistency wise, I think Abbott is even better than Bradley. Other than quads, what does Bradley do better than Jeremy? Obviously none. And in the a few accasions that Bradley competed internationally, he has never pulled off anything that Jeremy has pulled off. Granted, Jeremy has had many more chances than Bradley internationally. But why? Ryan and Jeremy are competing at the same level, even under the same coach for many years. Jeremy went up, Ryan didn't. What has prevented Ryan from rising higher? Consistency, if not considering all other technical weaknesses.

Just one competition like US Nationals, it doesn't mean much. It cannot be concluded that Ryan is a more reliable skater than Jeremy.

The reason I'm comparing Ryan with Jeremy is to point out that inconsistency monster in Ryan's skating.

Wish Ryan a good luck!

 

[pangtongfan]

What does a federation do to promote the fortunes of their designated "anchor guy?" Will they lobby the judges to give lower scores to Bradley and transfer the excess over to Dornbush?

If they are smart they will. Dornbush has a better shot to place top 10 and atleast secure the U.S 2 spots than Bradley does. Bradley is getting get hammered with terrible PCS at Worlds, his non jump elements are poor for international standards, and he rarely is consistent landing all his jumps in a big event.

And by the way Kevin Van Der Perren gets MUCH higher PCS than he ever deserves due to his "experience". Bradley who has no rep will simply get the PCS he deserves unlike the grossly overscored "paid my dues" Van Der Perren, so their scores cant be compared.

And since some posters were comparing Dornbush to Brezina, a top form Brezina would crush Van Der Perren even with his inflated PCS.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Pangtongfan, I think you missed Mathman's snark. His point was on "how" rather than "why".

The proper response to his post is

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Let's try the analysis:

From Japan - Takahito, Takahashi and Oda excpected

From Europe - Amodio, Joubert and Verner expected

From Canada - Chan expected

If the expectations of the above become a reality then 7 places are already occupied.

We will need to bust into the group of 7 and hit a 5th place so that the US can take an 8th place and total 13. However the one from the group of 7 may get that 8th place and cause the US total to become 14.

What do you think?

 

[dorispulaski]

Not necessarily. Numbers don't lie.

And since some posters were comparing Dornbush to Brezina, a top form Brezina would crush Van Der Perren even with his inflated PCS.

Fact is, Brezina did not skate badly at all at Europeans in the LP. And he finished behind van der Perren.

Of course, the Ryan who shows up in Japan may not be the Ryan who came to Nationals...Entirely possible.

What does a federation do to promote the fortunes of their designated "anchor guy?" Will they lobby the judges to give lower scores to Bradley and transfer the excess over to Dornbush?

There was an old shaggy dog story where a young fellow is the janitor's son in a seminary. There is a locked room there. Through the door, he can he hear the sounds of laughter and the clinking of glasses. He asks many people what's going on and all of them tell him that only priests can go in there, and they can't tell him because they are not a priest. The boy grows up, goes to seminary, becomes a priest and enters the locked room that is for priests only. The joke teller stops. The listener asks, "but what was going on in the room?" And the joke teller tells him, "I'm not a priest "

Just so, I'm not in the inner circle. I don't know what USFS does to promote the fortunes of one skater over another. Everyone seems to agree that all countries politick on behalf of their favored skaters. But How? "I can't tell you; I'm not a priest." My assumption of the method is that they call attention to the pluses of the favored skater, in case the judge might have missed them. Or to the inadequacies of the skater's near rivals. Or they say I will swap you this bottle of vodka for 1 extra PCS point, or I will gladly pay you Thursday for two hamburgers today.

Thanks, Doris! That was a valuable analysis, like many of your posts!

Agree that Bradley is the top quad guy in US right now.

However, he is hardly a consistent skater. Consistency wise, I think Abbott is even better than Bradley. Other than quads, what does Bradley do better than Jeremy? Obviously none. And in the a few accasions that Bradley competed internationally, he has never pulled off anything that Jeremy has pulled off. Granted, Jeremy has had many more chances than Bradley internationally. But why? Ryan and Jeremy are competing at the same level, even under the same coach for many years. Jeremy went up, Ryan didn't. What has prevented Ryan from rising higher? Consistency, if not considering all other technical weaknesses.

Just one competition like US Nationals, it doesn't mean much. It cannot be concluded that Ryan is a more reliable skater than Jeremy.

The reason I'm comparing Ryan with Jeremy is to point out that consistency monster in Ryan's skating.

Wish Ryan a good luck!

Yes, Ryan has not been consistent. But then, Jeremy is not at Worlds. The question is whether Dornbush is a better horse to bet on than Ryan, not whether Jeremy is a better horse to bet on than Ryan. pangtongfan says yes. However, Dornbush blew the SP at Nationals. And for me, he is Brandon Mroz v.2.0-dull as drying paint. Kevin without the jumps, Ryan without the jumps and without the charm.

As to the last few years, USFS had Evan and Johnny, and lots of time to guess who was the 3rd best US guy was. And in those years, Ryan's triple axel went west. I'm still wondering whether it was a physical problem, because suddenly, following foot surgery, it's back. But with no Evan and no Johnny, and a new set of rules favoring quads, the US probably won't get 3 spots. Relying on Dornbush to get them is a nonstarter.

Oh--an another Ryan factoid. Ryan does a fairly balanced program, rather than either a front loaded or back loaded one, as to jumps:

First half
4t3t
4t
3A
3Lz
---------
Second half
3A3T
3Lo
3S2T2T
3F

I saw no sign of him tiring at the end of the program. All of those last 4 sets of jumps were fully rotated. So I don't think stamina is a problem.

In fact, he is not comparably slow to Caroline Zhang vs. the women. If he were, he would not be able to get the audience to their feet after missing his first 2 big jumps. A better comparison would be Sasha Cohen, who was not a speedster, but who had some unique things she could do that entertained the audience. In fact, he's significantly faster than the last time I saw him skate live, which was summer before last.

 

[Violet Bliss]

You have to go with the scenario that half of the top 7 non-Americans (3 1/2 ? ) underperform and at least 2 Americans perform well or even flawlessly. Not impossible but not highly probable. Or it sounds better to say not highly probable but not impossible. Stars need to align just right on that slippery ice on that day.

Don't forget the possibility of 2nd tier non-Americans bringing their games to take advantage of slip ups by the top guys too.

eta This post is a response to Joesitz' question.

 

[Layfan]

Let's try the analysis:

From Japan - Takahito, Takahashi and Oda excpected

From Europe - Amodio, Joubert and Verner expected

From Canada - Chan expected

If the expectations of the above become a reality then 7 places are already occupied.

We will need to bust into the group of 7 and hit a 5th place so that the US can take an 8th place and total 13. However the one from the group of 7 may get that 8th place and cause the US total to become 14.

What do you think?

Yikes. Plus the other European guys - Brezina and that new Russian guy. True we don't know what to expect from their but I'm sure they'll be trying their best and their goal will certainly be to break the top 7.

I love Ryan's LP and I'm amazed at the backlash about it. I wasn't as enthralled with his SP as the others are, to be honest. I suspect that's because it was so evident how painfully slow his footwork and spins were. I enjoyed his performance and his 4-3 but if I'm perfectly honest with myself, his slowness really took away from the program in the same way that Caroline Zhang's did even when she was clean a couple of years ago.

Ryan desperately needs to build up his stamina and speed before worlds. I think he can do it to some extent. Hope he's aware of the problem. And no matter how entertaining he is, he needs to hit his quads. THAT I know he is aware of. He said after his FS that he was sure he was fighting to stay on the podium after missing his quads. He said he knew who he was as a skater.

He needs those quads if he has any prayer of being top 5. With the quads maybe there's a chance he could beat Amodio and Verner who can always be expected to make mistakes and who was looking meh at Euros. Amodio said he would try a quad at worlds. We'll see.

 

[Nadine]

ISU judges, including European judges, AFAIR, are used at 4CC's. However, Ryan will not be going to 4CC's.

As to whether his LP is a gay parody or Amadeus, here's what his ISU bio says:
http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00003278.htm
Music Free Skating / Free Dance as of season 2009/2010 Amadeus - Mozart Medley

I don't think international judges will be particularly kind to Ryan--I'm not predicting him to beat Joubert, either. If you recall, I said top ten.

But Mathman, Just so, I agree he won't be in any severe problems for keeping 2 spots if he lands both 3A and both 4ts--here's why:

Here's why:

When assessing Ryan's skating/skating skills, one should consider, that although his edges are not deep, and he skates with relatively few transitions:

He does 4t3t in the short. No US guy goes this. Van der Perren does, however.
He attempts 4t3t and 4t in the long, and has landed it from time to time. Likewise Van der Perren attempted this.
This year he has 3a3t and threw it in as an extra freebee in the LP. This year, he has his 3a back (missing a long time, and I do wonder if when the surgeon fixed his foot, he also fixed something that had been wrong a long time. Ryan says he has the xrays of an 80 yr old man. He had a great 3A as a junior, and then it went missing, although he had the quad. It's always puzzled me.) His landing it leaned forward more than I would like (sort of Stojko-ish), but consistently landing it.
He has 3S2t2t
He has 3Lz, not a flutz, and did it in the LP at Nationals. Tim Goebel flutzed. Ryan does the 3F in the SP because when he set the program up, he couldn't do 3Lz because the outside edge of his take off foot was the one that was still pinned togehter, and he couldn't stress it yet.
He has 3F, not a lip. Johnny Weir lipped. So do Brian Joubert, Tomas Verner, Pieter Liebers, and Florent Amodio (check out the Europeans LP results this year.
His 3Lo is perhaps his best jump, and it's a jump that has been the Nemesis of a number of skaters. Including Gachinski. He does it while waiting for the previous skater's score to come up, Along with a single axel.
He can tack a 3T on anything, and do one in the middle of a puddle on the ice. (Menshov struggles with the second jump in combination)
He doesn't underrotate stuff (cf. Schultheiss and Jeremy)
He can do an exhibition that people will pay to see. In Russia...at least according to Evgeni Plushenko:

He does not make pig faces in the KnC.
He can't do a 4S (or at least I've never seen him try one) Tim Goebel could do one.
And when he's on, the jumps are HUGE, which gets good GOE on jumps.

How long is it since we had a skater in the USA who can do all that?

Evan and Johnny never had a reliable 4T
Evan has a scratchy, rather nasty axel take off.
as a result, very often his planned 3a3t is a 3a2t.
Tim Goebel flutzed, and the height on his jumps was good, not great. He made it up by being very slender and so getting fast rotation.
Johnny Weir lipped and couldn't decent flow in a 3 jump combo and often left it out entirely.
Jeremy? Well, AFAIR he has never done 2 quads in a program, nor can he do a quad combo of any sort.

So let's look at Ryan's SP:
4t3t
3a
ccsp3
3f
ffsp3
slst2
cocsp4
Base value, as skated at US Nationals, 39.40; this is not "planned"; this is as executed.
Ryan's Base Value exceeds all but Amodio's & Brezina's total TES

As executed base values at Europeans:
Amodio's base is 36.10
Brezina's base is 35.90
Gachinski's base is 37.10, with a 4t3t, 3a, but he completely blew a spin, and does a loop for his extra jump.
van der Perren's base is 37.20, with a 4t3t and a 3a. It's lower than Ryan's because he does 3S and he got level 1 on a spin. Kevin got 33.96 total in PCS, a fair guess for what Ryan skating Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy will score at worlds, if he skates it as he did in Greensboro, which he very well may not do. However, I think Ryan would be underscored if he gets vdP's PCS scores. They are about the same in skating skills and transitions, but Ryan should crush Kevin in choreography and performance-won't happen, but that's how it should go, IMO.

So, anyhoo:
PCS guess 33.96
Base value of elements, with 0 GOE, 39.40
total score 73.36
If we give him van der Perren's GOE (and vdp had negative GOE's on 2 spins), then let's add
2.45
(Justified because Ryan's spins, while not creative, are decently quick and well centered, his straight line, while easy, is exciting, and his jumps were huge, if not entered from transitions. Somewhere in there he should get some positive GOE)
Total 75.81

So where would that have put him in the SP at Europeans?
In third place, but effectively tied with Brezina for second.

Probably skating in the second to last group for the LP, given that the 3 Japanese men and Patrick Chan will be in the first group with Brezina and Amodio--or Joubert or Verner, depending on how those guys do. Maybe 6th in the last group, but I doubt it, because USFSA will not be treating Ryan as the "anchor guy". They will be going with Dornbush, IMO, although for me he is the least of the 3 guys we are sending to Worlds. Stupid on their part, but there it is.

You will note that 3 Europeans can do, on their good days 4t3a in a short program: Brian, Gachinski, and van der Perren. On a really good day, Verner. And Menshov can do 4t2t, and two quads in the LP. Verner can do a 4T not in combination, and occasionally Fernandez does a stand alone 4T in the long. So does Schultheiss. If you don't think European judges, particularly Russians, will be touting the importance of quads in the SP and LP, think on. Likewise, Patrick Chan now does 4t in the SP and two quads in the LP. Canadians will also be pushing the importance of having a quad. A bellwether indicator of shifting winds is that a pretty good performance by Brezina in the LP only finished 10th there.

Now let's look at Ryan in the LP:
And here we have to do a best/worst case-does the Ryan of the practices show up, or the Ryan of last year's Nationals LP? or the Ryan of the Greensboro LP?

Again, let's look at his two base values, and let's give him a UR for the first of the 2 quads (it was marginal, and so gets 7.2 base rather than 4.1 for severely UR or 10.3 for fully rotatation), and bracket it with his base value, if he skates it as he did at practice:

84.80 (as at Practice)
78.64 (as at Nationals)
(as at nationals with the downgrade on the 4t, and the sequence penalty on the second 4t)
75.54 (obviously this is not an epic disaster, but drops him down..)
PCS of vanderPerren at Europeans
68.64
GOE of van der Perren (vdP skated an excellent LP)
5.13

So that leaves us with an estimate for Ryan of between 149 and 159 for the LP.

Coupled with 75.81 for the SP, I have him at a total score of between 225 and 234. Giving him a little benefit of the doubt on PCS, he medals at Europeans.

Amodio 226.86
Joubert 223.01
Verner 222.60
van der Perren 216.59 (Yes. Not Brezina, who didn't really skate that poorly in the LP)

If USFS takes a look at this analysis, and takes the lesson of the way Brezina dropped behind van der Perren at Europeans, they will push Ryan as their anchor guy. There's much more upside with Ryan than with Dornbush, who at best is a Brezina level kind of guy, and therefore at best is also top ten, at best. And if he flubs his SP, as at nationals, lower.

The quadless COP skater as a winner is in the process of becoming an endangered species again.

As always you are the voice of reason, Dorispulaski.

What you said makes sense, especially the very last sentence.

I still say Ryan should go with the "Willy Wonka" program, and neither will he be the first one debuting a new program at Worlds, so is Yuna Kim. ^)

Btw, late last night I finally was able to re-watch most of the men, as I wasn't paying attention to any of them on Sunday. And I'm not impressed with Richard Dornbush....boring & hunched over....though he does have nice basics. Ross Miner I liked a heck of a lot more, and to a lesser extent Armin M., but the former had unique spins & that gorgeous spread eagle down the ice, he reminded me of an elegant skater from the past and that's why he had my vote. But all in all they looked like junior skaters. Whom impressed me were the following:

Adam Rippon ~ he has it all, just needs to put it together when it counts, will also need a quad in his arsenal before Sochi. But right now he needs to work on consistency.

Jeremy Abbott ~ ditto, except the difference between Jeremy & Adam is that Adam is more creative and innovative. But whomever gets that quad first should dominate.

Jason Brown ~ the female version of Sasha Cohen to a "t". But if he wants to compete with the big guns he *needs* a 3axel and a quad!

Keegan Messing ~ ah, I love this kid, but that childish/juniorish "Incredible Hulk" program has got to go pronto! After the SP, and after seeing his FS, I was hopeful that he would stay in the top 5, but I knew he wouldn't when I saw the way better constructed FS of his competitors (please see above). His SP was magic, but the FS doesn't even belong in seniors, somebody from his camp dropped the ball on that one. :disagree: But his JUMPS & DRIVE/ATTACK/POWER were simply amazing, he doesn't give up, and he goes for everything, even the quad! :thumbsup: Also, he had my heart when during the warmup he watched & applauded Ryan Bradley twice -- when he landed a clean solo quad and then a minute later when he landed a clean 4/2 combo.


Back on topic:

GOOOOOOOOOO RYAN!!!!!

 

[Violet Bliss]

The quadless COP skater as a winner is in the process of becoming an endangered species again.

When someone who doesn't need a quad to win has quads, nobody can win without it.

 

[seniorita]

Fact is, Brezina did not skate badly at all at Europeans in the LP. And he finished behind van der Perren.

Wait! Brezina skated a great sp, but he gave the podium away in Lp!

He fell on 3lutz, doubled the second lutz, fell on flip , doubled the 4s, well that! How much worse could it have been??
he is one more skater who needs to change the Lp.
First time it was great, second time it was good, now for second season it doesnt work, and judges dont love him much yet!

And for me, he is Brandon Mroz v.2.0-dull as drying paint. Kevin without the jumps, Ryan without the jumps and without the charm.

Ouch.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Doris, Bradley does a 4T-2T in the LP, not a 4T-3T (either that or he doesn't do the 3A-3T). He can't repeat the 3T twice.

 

[seniorita]

The quadless COP skater as a winner is in the process of becoming an endangered species again.

WWF is in the process of adopting them
But it is true, this season I have seen already as many quads as the last 3 seasons together.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Boy, this thread has a lot of different views.

Eine Kleine Nachmusique (sp) is not one of major importance in the works of Mozart, therefore easier for skating programs.

My post was not predicting winners - just those I thought would fill up certain spaces on the results, and since this thread is about Bradley, I thought about the possible loss of 3 places for next season given we do not have Abbott around. We have 2 newbies for Senior international competition.

The 7 non American skaters I have named have all been in Senior international competition before, and all have some sort of medals for it(except Amodio). The US has only Bradley. I assumed he would skate well enough to place 5th knocking out one of the 7 and bringing that unfortunate skater to 8th place whoever he may be. This leaves the 2 American newbies to fight for that 8th place. Can they do it?

Given the scenario, do you agree? Of course, this is everyone concerned skates well. The ice is slippery is a factor also.

Brezina didn't skate at all this past season due to injury and it showed up in his LP. C'est la vie. He's not included in the scenario but Verner is.

 

[Layfan]

whole post

You have given me much hope, Doris! Of course, it all comes down to him hitting the quads but why not? I'm also heartened that Ryan seems more comfortable with the 3a this year.

As for the quadless win, well Amodio did it at Euros and and I have no doubt that Jeremy would have done at US nationals had he not had a meltdown. The rules have made the quad more valuable but still not a must.

Daisuke's quads are not reliable so it's not impossible that a quadless guy could beat him in any given competition. I guess the quadheads don't like that but it remains unwise for a someone whose quads are just not there yet to try them at competition. Go with what you have and see what happens.

I agree with Skatefiguring though that Patrick Chan _ of all people _ has changed the game considerably. If Patrick hits his quads no way Daisuke can beat him without one. If Jeremy were on the team, I would also say he would have a hard time beating Patrick or Dai without his quad, although he could medal.

 

[A.H.Black]

I'm a little bit surprised that I haven't seen much concern about Ryan's short program. Worlds are in Japan and Ryan is skating to American music with a military theme from World War II. I'm not saying that he will be booed or that the Japanese audience will even be insulted. However, Ryan really feeds off of the crowd and he almost depends on great crowd reaction to skate his best. I just don't thnk a Japanese audience is going to love this program.

 

[Layfan]

^ I hadn't really thought of that. I hope it's not an issue... I can't say that I can provide much insight.

 

[Serious Business]

While I agree with Doris' analysis of Ryan's plusses as a skater (quads are worth a bucket of points this season, and landing them in the SP is a boon in so many ways), I don't agree that Dornbush is worthless. The numbers speak for themselves: Dornbush has the 9th highest total score of all the male skaters this season, and that's with a junior score (the FS is 30 seconds less, no second choreographic footwork sequence in FS, PCS are generally lower). That score would've been good enough for 4th at Europeans (probably would've podiumed with the higher PCS and the second footwork sequence put in).

I'm not fond of Dornbush's posture and I outright hate his SP. But since a relatively disastrous skate at JGP Austria at the beginning of the season in September where he came in 4th, Dornbush has been delivering at every competition (1st at JGP Germany, 1st at JGP Final, 2nd at US nationals). Dornbush is pretty darn reliable. Maybe if everybody skates brilliantly, Dornbush will get buried. But chances are, they won't, and Dornbush's consistency will help the US secure some of those spots.

 

[Serious Business]

I'm a little bit surprised that I haven't seen much concern about Ryan's short program. Worlds are in Japan and Ryan is skating to American music with a military theme from World War II. I'm not saying that he will be booed or that the Japanese audience will even be insulted. However, Ryan really feeds off of the crowd and he almost depends on great crowd reaction to skate his best. I just don't thnk a Japanese audience is going to love this program.

Nevermind the WWII connotations, the American GIs stationed in Japan currently cause quite a bit of consternation and there are lots of (mostly negative) stereotypes associated with them in Japan. There have been a couple of high profile incidents where US soldiers raped Japanese women/girls. It's gotten to the point that some Japanese bars will outright ban American soldiers from entering.

However, that doesn't mean the Japanese audience will confuse Ryan Bradley for a US soldier, or think that he is supporting them. I've seen depictions of bumbling, comically brash American soldiers in Japanese media. I think that's what the Japanese audience will take Ryan Bradley's skate as. The program doesn't strike me as jingoistic in any way. He portrays a harmless character doing a bit of slapstick, which goes over well with audiences anywhere. The Japanese audience may be particularly delighted to see an American play up and be in on some of the more benign jokes and stereotypes the Japanese themselves have about American soldiers. I don't foresee that it will be a problem.

 

[dorispulaski]

When someone who doesn't need a quad to win has quads, nobody can win without it.

Yes, when Patrick Chan got a quad, the world changed. The

Doris, Bradley does a 4T-2T in the LP, not a 4T-3T (either that or he doesn't do the 3A-3T). He can't repeat the 3T twice.

I'm sure you're correct--I don't keep as close track of the rules for singles as the rules for dance and pairs.

Certainly, his planned elements, as shown on IN, are very different than what he actually did, including 4t2t, and no second 3a-no relation to what he actually did, nor what he practiced.
However, originally it was the 3S that had the 3t.
In the executed version, the 3S had 3s2t2t

BTW, I'm only making a case for Ryan to make top 10, not to medal, nor to hit top 6.

However, with everyone, including now Amodio trying quads, in response to Chan having multiple quads, I predict a lot of splatting will occur at Worlds-unavoidable when people first start doing jumps they haven't normally done before, or that aren't consistent for them.

I'm interested in Serious Business's analysis of Ryan's SP content-if Ryan were in a military uniform, skating in a serious mode to the Full Metal Jacket soundtrack or the theme from Victory at Sea (which was a US 1950's TV program which continually celebrated killing the Japanese in the Pacific) or the Star Spangled Banner, there might be a problem.

Delobel and Schoenfelder had no problems skating to Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy, AFAIR, year before last.