(somewhat gloomy) Article: U.S. skating prospects dim

[R.D.]

It's certainly POSSIBLE but no reason to "panic" at this point. Let's see if after the GP the doom and gloom will get worse or disappear...

 

[slutskayafan21]

I think it all depends on Kwan and/or Cohen being healthy. I have already stated I personaly believe a healthy Slutskaya, Kwan, and Cohen, are a total lock to sweep the podium in SLC in some order, nothing any of the Japanese has done of late has particularly impressed me, nor did Kostner at Worlds last year.
The men wont medal unless others mess up as I said. Belbin/Agosto? If they get their citizenship in time, the U.S has their certain medal, so no need to worry anymore.

 

[R.D.]

I personaly believe a healthy Slutskaya, Kwan, and Cohen, are a total lock to sweep the podium in SLC in some order, nothing any of the Japanese has done of late has particularly impressed me, nor did Kostner at Worlds last year.

This type of thinking may be OK for other events, but this is dangerous thinking for the Olympics. People are just ASKING for something to happen.

 

[attyfan]

This type of thinking may be OK for other events, but this is dangerous thinking for the Olympics. People are just ASKING for something to happen.

I don't think people need to ASK for something weird to happen at Olys; I think it happens naturally. (I would like to see Kwan, Liashenko and Slutskaya on the podium -- any order -- and wearing T-shirts that say "Old Broads Kick A** when they get their medals)

 

[slutskayafan21]

This type of thinking may be OK for other events, but this is dangerous thinking for the Olympics. People are just ASKING for something to happen.

I dont know, we will see in time I guess. I heard alot about how Arakawa was rejuvenated, and ready to make a real bid to be a serious contender again, how she had regained focus, hunger, and enthusiasm in her skating again. I am still waiting on that, and watching her at the Campbells cheesefest, not just her mistakes, but her overall skating, I thought :no: :no: :no: . Suguri's career may have already peaked out, she showed at Four Continents she can push for a medal if she puts it together and some others dont, but she never brings that to the big events anymore. Ando seems to be in regress not progress, Onda will never be medal potential material, and Asoda is obviously ineligable. Kostner ended up virtualy tied with Kwan at worlds, but if she is reasonably healthy I could not imagine Kwan showing up as unprepared as she was last year, and at the least she would be safe to beat the likes of Kostner I would believe. Who knows though, maybe Kostner will be motivated from that success enough to greatly improve her maturity, suspect endurance in the long program, and musical sense, which she greatly needs to have any chance vs an even reasonably COP-comfortable Kwan. As for Sokolova, 2003 was her career peak IMO, and she is riding out the wave of the remainder of her career happily, with no big goals in mind IMO, seeing her Skate America win, the thought of her as a serious Oly medal contender left me thinking .

 

[R.D.]

It sure may appear that way, but remember, that ice sure is slippery

 

[kyla2]

Hmmmmm.......

I think both Sasha and Michelle can give Irina a real run for her money at the Olympics in terms of performance, content and style. What truly worries me is this: will the ISU judges give them a fair shake if they don't compete in any Grand Prix competitions? Sure they may let them land in 2nd or 3rd, but will they really have a shot at the gold?

 

[mzheng]

I think both Sasha and Michelle can give Irina a real run for her money at the Olympics in terms of performance, content and style.

I like your positive thinking.

 

[Rgirl]

Rgirl, to me, your post reinforces what Frank Caroll is saying. Just because something is difficult does not mean you should do it. I'm sure it is very difficult to spin with your finger up your nose. Maybe that change of position with raise your spin from a level 2 to a level 3, under the New Judging System.

I think Caroll's point is, all that creative choreography that you mention -- yes, it is possible under the NJS, but it is not rewarded in the point totals, so why waste your time doing it?

About Michelle's spiral, while I don't feel sorry for Michelle about it, I feel sorry for us. We don't get to see the second most spectacular move in the history of skating any more.

It should be, if you consider choreography not as something separate from the tricks but part and parcel of them. For example, to me, choreography includes the way Michelle, for a few years in the late '90s, would hold the landing edge after her jump for a loooong time with her free leg in an arabesque position horizontal to the ice and doing some kind of arm movement. Choreography can be the way a skater enters his/her jumps, with steps, 3-turns, Ina Bauer, whatever, as well as how s/he exits the jump. Nancy Kerrigan used to go directly into a 3flip from a shoot-the-duck position with no steps or strokes between being in the full sit position, standing up (with no help from the free leg), and having to jump from that leg. VERY tough technically (higher GOE) and interesting choreography (high component scores for choreography, providing the rest of the program holds up as well).

The reason I went into detail about all that choreography I "mentioned" is that, if used with an understanding of the COP, it will be rewarded in the point totals.

As for your "I feel sorry for us" quote re Michelle's change/edge spiral--BAH-loney! Michelle need only shorten the first part of her change-edge spiral, the forward outside edge, by one second and add that second onto the forward inside edge of her spiral. And in every exhibition and every COI performance she does, she can hold both parts of that spiral as loooooong as she wants.

As for it being "the second most spectacular move in the history of skating" of course you're entitled to your opinion, but we've been seeing that move since 1998 when, IIRC, Michelle first did it during her Rach SP. I'm sure someone will correct me when I'm wrong about that. With Michelle's edge-control, I think there is virtually no limit to what she can do with her step spiral sequence. A 180-degree turn from a FOE to a BIE spiral. Or better yet, and I bet Michelle could do it, a 540-degree turn (a full turn and a half) from a FOE to a BIE spiral. Or a change edge from a FOE arabesque position to a BIE catch-foot Y position. I could go on and on.

I realize there is controversy about the point I'm about to bring up, but some feel that a skater should only get so much credit for a signature move in competition if she does it year in and year out. How often have I read people complain about Irina's same-old-same-old final spin combination? Lots! And I agree with them! If I were a judge, I'd feel like, "Okay, Irina, we've been watching you do the Beillmann on both feet since 1996. That's 10 years, babe. We KNOW you can do it. We're not telling you to dump the Beillmann altogether, but please a little creativity if you're going to keep using it."

I'm sure Michelle was not motivated to take a whole new approach to her FW sequence, designed and taught to Michelle by choreographer Morozov, but aren't we glad she did? She could have kept doing her same style of FW, which wasn't really any different than anybody else's, but her FW never got people screaming and jumping out their seats before "Aranjuez." Unfortunately, the only feedback we have for Michelle under the COP is from a relatively weak LP, choreographically and technically, at '05 Worlds. Sadly, because of Michelle's injury, we don't know if Tarasova was able to work her magic and create both an aesthetically beautiful LP and one maxed-out for points.

If Tarasova could create beautiful and point-jammed programs for Sasha (B&W "Swan Lake"), Shizuka (her '04 World title LP), and Johnny Weir ("Otonal") then, I repeat, the fault is with the coaches and choreographers, not with the NJS.

Finally, I think some skaters may be unintentionally trying to pad their landing in case they fail big-time under the NJS. Notice I said SOME skaters, not one. If a top skater, ladies or men, or team, pairs or ice dance, has a bad go of it in Italy, then, as I said, some may unintentionally be laying the groundwork with statements about how the COP doesn't let them concentrate on "how the program works as a whole," "how it's not all about counting up points," or that they have to dilute certain moves because they don't get anymore points for doing it the way they've always done it. This way, if they complain now and do poorly later, SOME skaters can say, "Well, I tried. But the COP just cuts me off at the knees. I don't get any points for emoting and that's what sets my skating apart. Never mind that I had easy entrances to all my jumps and that my spins left much to be desired. It's not that my skating isn't as well-rounded as other skaters. It's the COP that's wrong, just like I said at the beginning of the season."

Here comes Mean Ol' Rgirl because I say "Boo-flippin'-hoo." EVERY generation of skaters has to cope with something new. The ice dancers get a whole new book of rules every dang season, forget the COP. For singles skaters; first it was a SP in addition to the school figures; then no school figures but the advent of six triple-jump LPs. So if jumping wasn't some skaters' forte they cry, "Unfair! Unfair! I'm not just a jumping bean. My skating is all about edging, speed, and spins. So now I can never show my best skating and win? And what about my FANS! They're the ones who'll really suffer. They'll never get to see me do my edging, speed, and spins because now I have to spend all my time learning triple jumps."

However, having just made my SUCK IT UP pledge, I will spin towards the end of this LP (Long Post) and say that since you think my previous post reinforces Frank Carroll's arguments, that you are, as always, entitled to your opinion. My opinion is that Frank wants a way out of this that doesn't make him look like what he's really thinking is, "I've been fighting the ISU over one thing or another for 50 years. I'd like to coach a few more years, but the COP is just too much for me to learn and incorporate into my coaching and still live up to my standards as a coach." Besides, who's to say someone with the stature of Frank Carroll kvetching about certain things in the COP isn't a good thing? I think we all agree the COP is a work in progress. Perhaps what Frank has to say will help guide the COP towards improvements.

In the meantime, I say we agree to disagree while I try to perfect that spin with my finger up my nose. After all, I'm already a master at half of it. Can you get a higher level if you pick and flick a boogar right into the lens of the ABC sky-cam? Now THAT would be worth doing, extra points or no extra points!

Mean Ol' Rgirl

 

[Jaana]

Kostner ended up virtualy tied with Kwan at worlds, but if she is reasonably healthy I could not imagine Kwan showing up as unprepared as she was last year, and at the least she would be safe to beat the likes of Kostner I would believe. Who knows though, maybe Kostner will be motivated from that success enough to greatly improve her maturity, suspect endurance in the long program, and musical sense, which she greatly needs to have any chance vs an even reasonably COP-comfortable Kwan. As for Sokolova, 2003 was her career peak IMO, and she is riding out the wave of the remainder of her career happily, with no big goals in mind IMO, seeing her Skate America win, the thought of her as a serious Oly medal contender left me thinking .

I saw the broadcast of recent Turin gala and thought that Kostner was really awesome. That is something that I have not seen in her earlier...

 

[R.D.]

I saw the broadcast of recent Turin gala and thought that Kostner was really awesome. That is something that I have not seen in her earlier...

What do you mean by "awesome"? Did she just skate mistake free or did she make a marked improvement in a certain element of her skating? It seems our NJS is only going to reward tricks.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I think both Sasha and Michelle can give Irina a real run for her money at the Olympics in terms of performance, content and style. What truly worries me is this: will the ISU judges give them a fair shake if they don't compete in any Grand Prix competitions? Sure they may let them land in 2nd or 3rd, but will they really have a shot at the gold?

Irina has set herself going into the Olympics as the "one to beat" based on her performances of last year, and if neither Sasha or Michelle compete in the GP series they will have done nothing to change that. Thus to beat Irina one of them will have to deliver a "knockout punch". However that is not unfair IMO, Irina deserves that as the Olympic gold medal favorite, and should absolutely should get the benefit of the doubt in a very close decision. After all Michelle had that luxury as favorite in 98, somebody had to deliver a knockout punch to beat her, and her own cautious performance and Tara's lights out skate did that. Katarina had that luxury going into 88, and in retrospect obviously Oksana did in 94. Irina is not being afforded a luxury other pre-Olympic favorites were not awarded.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I saw the broadcast of recent Turin gala and thought that Kostner was really awesome. That is something that I have not seen in her earlier...

Thanks for the info. I even more look foward to seeing Kostner for the first time this season now. As I said perhaps she will use the surprise bronze from Worlds to build from, and mature her pleasent but rather childish skating look. Does she look like she has endurance to complete a long program strongly now?
That is something that has been a problem for her in the past as well.

 

[kyla2]

slutskayafan21

That's absolute rubbish that Irina should get the benefit of the doubt at the Olympics. It should be the best skate wins period. Michelle has NEVER EVER been given the benefit of the doubt. She has simply won the competition hands down. Your kind of thinking is exactly what disturbs me. The fact that you think Irina (or anyone for that matter) is owed something because they showed up for the Grand Prix Series or is "favored" to win. Favored by who, you?

 

[SkateFan4Life]

I'm cautiously optimistic about the chances for the US Olympic team. If Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen are in top shape and both skate clean programs, with all of their triples, I believe that both will be on the podium. Whether or not one of them will win the gold medal is another matter, but I would not be surprised to see both of them on the Olympic podium, if they both skate their best.

As for the men, I think that Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir have realistic chances to win silver or bronze medals, if they, too, skate great programs with all of their triples (and quads, if possible). They have to be outstanding, however, given the depth of the men's field, if they want to win Olympic medals.

If Tanith Belbin gets her dual US citizenship (please, please), I think she and Ben Agosto are solid candidates for the Olympic silver medal in ice dance. They are so outstanding, and they have the resume to win that medal.

As for pairs -- well -- that will have to wait for another Olympics. Not this time around. The US teams are good, but they aren't in the same class as the Russians and Chinese, who I believe will win all of the medals.

 

[R.D.]

That's absolute rubbish that Irina should get the benefit of the doubt at the Olympics. It should be the best skate wins period. Michelle has NEVER EVER been given the benefit of the doubt. She has simply won the competition hands down. Your kind of thinking is exactly what disturbs me. The fact that you think Irina (or anyone for that matter) is owed something because they showed up for the Grand Prix Series or is "favored" to win. Favored by who, you?

Not just that...maybe a few judges, too. :scowl:

 

[slutskayafan21]

Slutskaya should not be given the gold as a gift, but if it is a toss up and she gets it, it makes alot of sense. She does go into the Olympics as the favorite, not by me, but by skating experts and insiders, based on her dominance of last year. Michelle has gone into competitions she was certain to win if it was a toss up, Irina this time goes in with the same circumstances.
Michelle never winning competitions that were virtual toss ups? 96 Worlds comes to mind, where many people still think Chen should have won comes to mind, but of course Kwan came in off an undefeated season and Chen off an inconsistent season, so a virtual tie was always going to be Kwan's, and understandbly so in a way.

 

[R.D.]

To me, it seems obvious that certain skaters will be favored in close calls. That's just the nature of judging.

 

[RealtorGal]

History Lesson: Salt Lake City 2002. Michelle and Irina co-favored for gold. Well, we all know how THAT turned out.

 

[Mathman]

Thanks for the info. I even more look foward to seeing Kostner for the first time this season now. As I said perhaps she will use the surprise bronze from Worlds to build from, and mature her pleasent but rather childish skating look. Does she look like she has endurance to complete a long program strongly now?

If you don't mind being spoiled, Carolina is competing at Skate Canada right now. You can check out her SP in the Events folder, if you havent already.