Sports gene ...quads, men's vs women's, teens vs adults

[thedude]

So I stumbled upon the TED talk by David Epstein and read his book "The Sports Gene".

One of the things I don't think people realize how different men and women differ in not only athletic performance but in how they develop. There's several academic researches performed about the performance gap between men and women. When it comes to development, girls and boys essentially have the same athletic performance until 12 -14 yrs old. If you tested them in sprinting or jumping, they're results are very similar. So a Stephen Gogolev isn't that much different physically than Trusova or Shcherbakova.

Now here is where things get sobering. After 12-14 yrs, the performance gap between boys and girls widens and stays that way through adult Olympic performance. Even more sobering is that for most women they've reached their plateau, especially in things that require power like sprinting or jumping. Unlike men, who continue to see significant improvements into adulthood. On average based on the research, men perform about 10% better in running, jumping, swimming, etc. That performance gap has stayed the same since the 1980s, elite women athletes have not closed that gap.
10% doesn't seem that much but in the sports world that's night and day.

That's why I am skeptical about women's quad becoming a new standard. It doesn't really matter how hard they train, technique they use, or how fierce and determined they are. If top men just land their quads just over 50%, then it's going to take incredible women skater to achieve even something remotely close to that.
I'm also skeptical about any female skater over 16 getting a 3A or quad later in their skating career, if they don't have it already.

Google "athletic performance gap men women", if you want to read more.

 

[Mathman]

I'm also skeptical about any female skater over 16 getting a 3A or quad later in their skating career, if they don't have it already.

Mirai Nagasu, age 24.

 

[Interspectator]

Mirai Nagasu, age 24.

And at the recent Japan Nationals, Ayaka Hosoda at 23 years old. -Landed 3 very clean 3As. She didn't have it as a teenager, but trained it in the same group as Rika Kihira.

 

[sx98423]

the same argument could've been used when ladies started doing triples. i do think the ladies field will always be a bit behind mens because of the reasons you cited but at the same time both men and women are improving with each generation. In any sport the mens field seems to be a bit faster, stronger, and more difficult than women but it's not like the men get better over time and women just stop progressing. for example in swimming sure the guys are faster than the girls but new world records for both men and women are being broken.

same for figure skating the guys started doing doubles then women followed, same story for triples, i don't see how quads will be any different. I'm sure the success rate for men would also be a lot higher if they only attempted one quad per competition. Multiple quads per program has never really been a thing until recently for men but one or two per program has been a thing for a while now, it's been more than enough time for the ladies to catch up

 

[andromache]

I think even while women might be biologically/physically prone to "plateaus" or "stagnation," improvements in technique and training methods can still lead to giant strides forward.

Eteri has successful trained prepubescent girls to have quads. It will probably be some time before technique/training methods advance further for grown women to be able to jump quads, but I don't think it's impossible. It's just a matter of time.

 

[thedude]

Yes, there are some exceptions, there always going to be some, but will it be the norm. Did Mirai have a big 2A when she was younger? It didn't look like her 3A was very reliable but more of a swing for the fences attempt to maybe get on the podium with some luck. Was Mirai a better skater at 16? How did the rest of her jumps age, like combo's and triples?

Swimming is actually a sport where women actually might benefit a bit better as they age because fat floats better and wide hips aren't as detrimental. If you've read the book or watched the video, swimming records are a bit misleading because of improvements in swimming pool design to minimize turbulence and swimsuit technology that is now banned.

One of the arguments that Epstein makes is that although records have been broken, it isn't because of how modern athlete trains or so much physically improvement but things like technological improvements in equipment. Yes, athletes have improved just not as much as we think. Assuming that's true, there's no reason to believe that Orser or Boitano couldn't have done a quad in their prime. But because figure skating is subjective and the scoring system changes, a quad really wasn't necessary.

What I've read is that a quint is essentially impossible based off of computer models. I'm assuming quads came about because the men landing landing a triple was essentially a given, and that best way to get more points and differentiate yourself was to land a quad. The article I read said that on average men skaters jump 20 inches and women 16 inches. Unfortunately, there isn't much research data on figure skaters, but there is some on other college athletes like basketball and volleyball. Extrapolating on what I've read, a women has to be in the top 5% of jumpers to be at the average of men. That's why even women professional basketball players hardly ever dunk. So even if top men can't reliably land quads, and the average man lands it even less, what does that mean for an exceptional women.

Figure skating is a bit of a weird sport, being faster or physically stronger isn't as important as other sports. And I would argue figure skating doesn't attract the athletes who skates the fastest or jumps the highest.

 

[Mathman]

Was Mirai a better skater at 16?

Mirai at 16. (The famous "Carmen's Little Sister" program. She got 4th at the 2010 Olympics.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rJX0_QqCTE

 

[Charlotte 71]

the same argument could've been used when ladies started doing triples. i do think the ladies field will always be a bit behind mens because of the reasons you cited but at the same time both men and women are improving with each generation. In any sport the mens field seems to be a bit faster, stronger, and more difficult than women but it's not like the men get better over time and women just stop progressing. for example in swimming sure the guys are faster than the girls but new world records for both men and women are being broken.

same for figure skating the guys started doing doubles then women followed, same story for triples, i don't see how quads will be any different. I'm sure the success rate for men would also be a lot higher if they only attempted one quad per competition. Multiple quads per program has never really been a thing until recently for men but one or two per program has been a thing for a while now, it's been more than enough time for the ladies to catch up

The argument definitely was made as late as the early 80s that triples were beyond the physical capability of women and should be banned. I have a Skating Magazine from around 1980 on my bookshelf with an article - I think it might be a review of Nationals - making just this argument about the "terrible toll" triples were taking on the women, both physically - citing evidence that certain ladies missed Nationals because of injury (presumably they were injured trying to master the evil triples) - and also in sacrificing the sacred artistry of ladies skating for the sake of triples. The writer stated that all jumps beyond the double Axel should be banned in ladies competition. A lot of the commentary from that time seemed to focus on the threat to artistry if the free skating became "just a jumping contest," and anxiety about whether athleticism and artistry could ever really coexist again, with so much emphasis on triples. History doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme, as they say!

 

[lzxnl]

The argument definitely was made as late as the early 80s that triples were beyond the physical capability of women and should be banned. I have a Skating Magazine from around 1980 on my bookshelf with an article - I think it might be a review of Nationals - making just this argument about the "terrible toll" triples were taking on the women, both physically - citing evidence that certain ladies missed Nationals because of injury (presumably they were injured trying to master the evil triples) - and also in sacrificing the sacred artistry of ladies skating for the sake of triples. The writer stated that all jumps beyond the double Axel should be banned in ladies competition. A lot of the commentary from that time seemed to focus on the threat to artistry if the free skating became "just a jumping contest," and anxiety about whether athleticism and artistry could ever really coexist again, with so much emphasis on triples. History doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme, as they say!

Except one day, we really will hit a physical limit as to what the human body can tolerate. Now, I don't believe that limit is quads; women should be capable of landing quads given it's been done before and triple axels have become more common now, but I do expect a quad axel to really be beyond the capabilities of any woman, and probably nearly all men too.

 

[Sam L]

Except one day, we really will hit a physical limit as to what the human body can tolerate. Now, I don't believe that limit is quads; women should be capable of landing quads given it's been done before and triple axels have become more common now, but I do expect a quad axel to really be beyond the capabilities of any woman, and probably nearly all men too.

I agree. We live within the laws of physics. You can’t travel faster than light as an example.

 

[Mathman]

You matter.

But if you travel at the speed of light, you energy.

 

[Sam L]

You matter.

But if you travel at the speed of light, you energy.

You sound like Yoda.

 

[Triple loop]

Oh yes

The argument definitely was made as late as the early 80s that triples were beyond the physical capability of women and should be banned. I have a Skating Magazine from around 1980 on my bookshelf with an article - I think it might be a review of Nationals - making just this argument about the "terrible toll" triples were taking on the women, both physically - citing evidence that certain ladies missed Nationals because of injury (presumably they were injured trying to master the evil triples) - and also in sacrificing the sacred artistry of ladies skating for the sake of triples. The writer stated that all jumps beyond the double Axel should be banned in ladies competition. A lot of the commentary from that time seemed to focus on the threat to artistry if the free skating became "just a jumping contest," and anxiety about whether athleticism and artistry could ever really coexist again, with so much emphasis on triples. History doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme, as they say!

I remember this time. It was so ridiculous because women were very capable. How else was skating going to progress. The introduction of the triple jumps in the 1980's sparked my interest in the sport. I know back then females could only do 2-3 triples but now we do every single one of them. Great job, ladies.

 

[hanyuufan5]

One of the arguments that Epstein makes is that although records have been broken, it isn't because of how modern athlete trains or so much physically improvement but things like technological improvements in equipment. Yes, athletes have improved just not as much as we think. Assuming that's true, there's no reason to believe that Orser or Boitano couldn't have done a quad in their prime. But because figure skating is subjective and the scoring system changes, a quad really wasn't necessary.

The equipment certainly helps, but is the equipment really that much different from 20 years ago? (That's a serious question, not rhetorical or sarcastic; I really don't know.)

I think it's more the coaching. Someone figured out how to do quads, then figured out how to teach them. I totally agree about Orser or Boitano, if they had a coach who knew how to teach quads. They could have the best of the best modern equipment, but without the knowledge, they probably would have just done what they already did better, not done anything much, much harder like a quad.

 

[ribbit]

...there's no reason to believe that Orser or Boitano couldn't have done a quad in their prime.

I totally agree about Orser or Boitano, if they had a coach who knew how to teach quads. They could have the best of the best modern equipment, but without the knowledge, they probably would have just done what they already did better, not done anything much, much harder like a quad.

Actually...they could and did.

Brian Orser and Jozef Sabovcik jumping quad toes during a Skate Canada practice in 1985:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2IaPXg6DaE

A piece on Brian Boitano's quad toe attempts in 1987-88:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CMxbx4A0fk

and a slow-motion video of one of his better attempts:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PjwxfkNnCA

Given how heavily a fall was penalized under 6.0, and how incredibly rare successful quads were in the mid- to late 1980s, there was really very little incentive for either of them to attempt a quad in competition. If they were skating in today's climate and under IJS, they might well have chosen differently.

 

[gkelly]

Boitano attempted quads in competition.

Orser in public practice.

If they had felt the need to include them in order to win (e.g., if Sabovcik and Fadeev had been healthy and landing cleanish quads in competition, and if figures had been removed from competition four years earlier than they were), they would have trained them more and quite possibly landed some clean ones, even with the equipment and training techniques at the time.

But even in that hypothetical alternate 1980s, the number of quad men would probably have remained in single digits.

 

[Sugar Coated]

So I stumbled upon the TED talk by David Epstein and read his book "The Sports Gene".

One of the things I don't think people realize how different men and women differ in not only athletic performance but in how they develop. There's several academic researches performed about the performance gap between men and women. When it comes to development, girls and boys essentially have the same athletic performance until 12 -14 yrs old. If you tested them in sprinting or jumping, they're results are very similar. So a Stephen Gogolev isn't that much different physically than Trusova or Shcherbakova.

Now here is where things get sobering. After 12-14 yrs, the performance gap between boys and girls widens and stays that way through adult Olympic performance. Even more sobering is that for most women they've reached their plateau, especially in things that require power like sprinting or jumping. Unlike men, who continue to see significant improvements into adulthood. On average based on the research, men perform about 10% better in running, jumping, swimming, etc. That performance gap has stayed the same since the 1980s, elite women athletes have not closed that gap.
10% doesn't seem that much but in the sports world that's night and day.

That's why I am skeptical about women's quad becoming a new standard. It doesn't really matter how hard they train, technique they use, or how fierce and determined they are. If top men just land their quads just over 50%, then it's going to take incredible women skater to achieve even something remotely close to that.
I'm also skeptical about any female skater over 16 getting a 3A or quad later in their skating career, if they don't have it already.

Google "athletic performance gap men women", if you want to read more.

I'll have to watch the full Ted talk but I'm highly skeptical of some of the conclusions you are jumping to. I've heard the 10% gap many times before and I don't doubt this. But I'm having trouble with this idea that women's performance plateaus at 12-14 in regards to power, speed, and strength. Perhaps their improvement's represent a relative plateau compared to men who have significant improvements for several more years? But the top female sprinters, jumpers, swimmers, power lifters, etc are not 12-14 year old girls. The relative improvement seen in a 12 vs. 18 year old girl may be small compared to what you see between 12 vs. 18 year old man. But an 18 year old female is going to be better than a 12 year old in most athletic measures related to power/speed/strength, at least by my understanding (I'll try to watch the Ted talk and get some links tomorrow). Sometimes you see girls lose speed (such as long distance running) with changes in body composition due to puberty. But most elite long distance runners peak in their twenties and even early thirties.

This idea that women can't do quads based on the 10% gap also doesn't make sense to me. Quads were rare for men a couple decades ago. Men's athletic abilities weren't any different, the goals of the sport and training approach has changed resulting in more quads. I'd assume this has more to do with off ice plyometric training as well as using the harness for training. I think its too early to tell what is going to happen for women. I agree that women will likely not be able to jump as high (10% as high). But I'm not sure how much different rotation speed is between men and women. I get that strength wise, you'd think they'd be 10% less powerful and thus 10% slower but I'm not sure that this is a pure strength/speed issue considering aerodynamics and other possible factors. Maybe it is. But even if that is true, it still remains to be seen if 10% height and 10% slower rotation speed is enough for the average elite skater to land a quad given adequate training. I could see it possibly that we will not see any females over 16 gaining quads in the next few years - but that may be due to not having started training them when younger and not necessarily due to their inability to do them with age. If the current group of novice (or younger) skaters starts doing work toward quads, they may build the foundations needed to acquire and maintain them later.

One final thought about the "athletic performance gap" between men and women - the Biellmann spin. Who is better on average at performing this move? Why is this not talked about as a performance gap? So much of how we view athletics is defined by men. For centuries men have been the ones competing and defining what is and isn't sport/athletics. Men and women are physiologically different. But we often judge sport based on power/speed and not on flexibility/balance - an area that women may on average be superior given their physiology. What if we as a world defined rhythmic gymnastics or certain elements of artistic gymnastics (balance beam) as the most important sporting events? Would men still dominate? Just to challenge this notion about performance "gaps" between men and women; there are differences but some of what we measure and define as athleticism may be viewed through a male lens.

 

[dobrevaria]

There is definitely a difference physically, physiologically and genetically between men and women, that's for sure, and people denying that are fooling themselves for the sake of political correctness. That's one of the reason I don't think women are going to have free programs with for example 4 or 5 quads anytime soon. And it's normal that women and men have the same "performance" until 12/14 years old. I suppose it's because they didn't go trough puberty yet. Men don't have hips, so their center of gravity stays the same during all their career (except some extreme growth spurt or weight gain) and it's easier for them to master quads young, and do them afterwards in the senior ranks. Ladies don't look like sticks all their lives, so of course, they face more harships, and having (and keeping) a triple axel or a quad is going to be harder for them.
However, I do think that the evolution of the ladies fied is inevitable. As I said, I don't see ladies doing 5 quads in their free programs à la Chen, but one or two is definitely something possible. If it's done with the right technique, these talented ladies can definitely do 3A or quads into their adulthood (Mirai Nagasu or Asada being examples).

 

[Miller]

This is a list of the various age records for the high jump for boys and girls from age 8 through to 18, plus the ultimate world records. Think it's very interesting as you can see the relative gap is quite small until age 12, at which point boys records increase much more quickly than girls. However from age 16 things slow down, but ultimately the records keep on increasing (men's world record was set at age 26 and women's 21).

From a figure skating perspective this seems to tie in very well with what we see with junior female skaters able to compete equally well with male skaters in terms of jumps and specifically jump rotations until a certain point, at which point male height of jumps and lack of slowing down in rotational speeds seems to kick in - the latter is probably the key to it all i.e. how much extra air time do you get for the higher height compared with any slowing down in rotation speed - over to any physicist out there who can really explain what's going on - my guess is that you don't get an extra lot for the increased height compared with the slower rotation speed and this is why a lot of female skaters in particular 'lose their jumps'.

I also note that the ultimate men's and women's world high jump records are still somewhat higher than those at age 18 and that this should mean, theoretically, that women skaters as well as men, should be able to do bigger/more revolution jumps once they’re aged 18 plus. However this is not what you tend to see in practice. Is this because women's bodies keep on developing meaning that the extra height/distance is negated by slower rotational speed, or is it just that people accept that you can't 'improve' jumps-wise once you're past a certain age, but in fact you probably can if you really go for it - see Mirai Nagasu's 3A, plus I would suggest the quad revolution in general - men have probably always been capable of multiple quads for example, they've just not gone for it for one reason or another, but once someone else does suddenly everyone else does (or at least the ones that are athletically capable).

Boys/girls

Age 8 - 1.38m/1.34m
Age 9 - 1.55m/1.45m
Age 10 - 1.63m/1.56m
Age 11 - 1.76m/1.69m
Age 12 - 1.89m/1.75m
Age 13 - 2.04m/1.81m
Age 14 - 2.17m/1.89m
Age 15 - 2.20m/1.93m
Age 16 - 2.33m/1.95m (boy's = Javier Sotomayor, the ultimate world record holder and holder of all age records from now on)
Age 17 - 2.34m/1.96m (girl's = Vashti Cunningham, daughter of NFL quarterback, and fantastic athlete, Randall Cunningham - there's a gene thing for you).
Age 18 - 2.36m/2.01m

Ultimate world records - men's 2.45m, women's 2.09m

Source of age data http://age-records.125mb.com/

 

[Tsurara]

The equipment certainly helps, but is the equipment really that much different from 20 years ago? (That's a serious question, not rhetorical or sarcastic; I really don't know.)

Some retired skaters do talk about how heavy the old skates used to be. Minoru Sano the other day explained a bit in detail on a TV show regarding Rika(Kihira)'s issue with her boots at her SP, about some liquid-plastic material being used and it's way lighter while it takes time for fitting. I remember some others explaining how legendary Midori Ito was for doing incredible 3As while wearing the super-heavy skates, not having the relatively lighter ones we have now.