I appreciate Gracie for her strengths and am rooting for her, but I too think the projections that she will overtake Ashley is premature. The fact is that Gracie has yet to beat Ashley in a competition and out of all their face-to-face meet ups, both short programs and free programs, they are in a dead heat:
World Team Trophy 2012 - 1-1 (Gracie, SP; Ashley, FS)
Nationals 2012 - 1-1 (Ashley SP; Gracie FS)
Worlds 2012 - 1-1 (Ashley SP; Gracie FS)
Worlds Team Trophy 1-1 (Gracie SP; Ashley FS)
Also in personal bests
SP: Ashley (66.44 [GPF 2012]vs. 62.16 [COR 2012]
SP TES: Ashley (35.60 at NHK Trophy 2008 vs 35.32 at JGP Tallinn Cup 2011)
SP PCS: Ashley (31.49 at GPF 2012/13 vs 28.62 at 2013 Worlds)
FS: Ashley (128.83 vs 127.05 [Both 2013 WTT)
FS TES: Ashley (66.61 4CC 2012 vs 65.28 at WTT 2013)
FS PCS: Ashley (65.09 WTT 2013 vs 61.77 at WTT 2013)
Overall: Ashley 192.41 (2012 4CC) vs 188.03 (2013 WTT)
Ashley's biggest buffer right now in PCS. But Ashley for sure will need to upgrade her content given that she barely beats error-prone Gracie programs.
World Team Trophy 2012 - 1-1 (Gracie, SP; Ashley, FS)
Nationals 2012 - 1-1 (Ashley SP; Gracie FS)
Worlds 2012 - 1-1 (Ashley SP; Gracie FS)
Worlds Team Trophy 1-1 (Gracie SP; Ashley FS)
Also in personal bests
SP: Ashley (66.44 [GPF 2012]vs. 62.16 [COR 2012]
SP TES: Ashley (35.60 at NHK Trophy 2008 vs 35.32 at JGP Tallinn Cup 2011)
SP PCS: Ashley (31.49 at GPF 2012/13 vs 28.62 at 2013 Worlds)
FS: Ashley (128.83 vs 127.05 [Both 2013 WTT)
FS TES: Ashley (66.61 4CC 2012 vs 65.28 at WTT 2013)
FS PCS: Ashley (65.09 WTT 2013 vs 61.77 at WTT 2013)
Overall: Ashley 192.41 (2012 4CC) vs 188.03 (2013 WTT)
Ashley's biggest buffer right now in PCS. But Ashley for sure will need to upgrade her content given that she barely beats error-prone Gracie programs.