While looking over the standings for all four disciplines, I noticed that with the exception of the ladies, there are two spots open in each. I have decided to make an analysis of at least Men, Pairs, and Ice Dance, though Ladies might give me too much of a headache. First, the Men:
Locked:
1. Patrick Chan
2. Takahiko Kozuka
3. Brian Joubert
4. Jeremy Abbott
Right now Tomas Verner is fifth in the standings, Alban Preaubert sixth. There are four men competing next week capable of passing them, though it is impossible for all four to do so: Johnny Weir, Stephen Carriere, Yannick Ponsero, & Kevin Reynolds.
In order to get into the top six, Ponsero & Reynolds must win; if either does so, he's in(if either comes in second, he passes Preaubert, but in all probability one of the other three will go ahead of him).
If either Johnny or Carriere make the top two, they pass Tomas. If, however, either wins bronze with a score of 211 or lower, or finishes off the podium Tomas will stay ahead, and will make the Finale, provided neither Ponsero nor Reynolds wins.
The rogue element here, of course, is Nobunari Oda, who cannot qualify for the Finale himself, but if very capable of preventing someone else from doing so.
Prediction:
Johnny & Oda are the top two, in some order. Carriere wins bronze with a high enough score to pass Tomas. Final line-up:
1. Patrick Chan
2. Takahito Kozuka
3. Johnny Weir
4. Brian Joubert
5. Jeremy Abbott
6. Stephen Carriere
Locked:
1. Patrick Chan
2. Takahiko Kozuka
3. Brian Joubert
4. Jeremy Abbott
Right now Tomas Verner is fifth in the standings, Alban Preaubert sixth. There are four men competing next week capable of passing them, though it is impossible for all four to do so: Johnny Weir, Stephen Carriere, Yannick Ponsero, & Kevin Reynolds.
In order to get into the top six, Ponsero & Reynolds must win; if either does so, he's in(if either comes in second, he passes Preaubert, but in all probability one of the other three will go ahead of him).
If either Johnny or Carriere make the top two, they pass Tomas. If, however, either wins bronze with a score of 211 or lower, or finishes off the podium Tomas will stay ahead, and will make the Finale, provided neither Ponsero nor Reynolds wins.
The rogue element here, of course, is Nobunari Oda, who cannot qualify for the Finale himself, but if very capable of preventing someone else from doing so.
Prediction:
Johnny & Oda are the top two, in some order. Carriere wins bronze with a high enough score to pass Tomas. Final line-up:
1. Patrick Chan
2. Takahito Kozuka
3. Johnny Weir
4. Brian Joubert
5. Jeremy Abbott
6. Stephen Carriere