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- Jan 10, 2014
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Today's Men's SP provides a great example of how the New Judging System is much fairer than the old 6.0 System. Or is it...??
To compare the Old vs. New Judging SYSTEM (irrespective of the actual judging), today's SP scores were entered into the tables below to demonstrate the different impact of each system to the 'spread' (or how close each competitor is to one another). The first table compares everyone's scores to Yuzuru's high score of 101.45; whereas the second table focuses on the bronze medal race, and how close the group-of-11 is to Javier's 86.98 score.
Old vs. New Judging System (relative spread/distance of competitors to 1st place)
Old vs. New Judging System (relative spread/distance of competitors to 3rd place)
What impact would the Old vs. New System have on the current standings?
The most notable observation from the tables above is that the current 11-way race for the bronze medal would NOT exist if the ordinals & factor placements from the 6.0 System were still being used:
For example, in the 6.0 System, the two CZE skaters would need to rank 5 places ahead of Javier in the LP to win the bronze; as compared to scoring just 5 and 6 points higher respectively in the LP (the equivalent of ~1 triple jump) with the New System. On the other hand, Daisuke or Peter Liebers would just need to simply beat Javier in the LP to claim 3rd (which seems more in line with the actuality of the New System being used in Sochi).
Apples and Oranges?
Admittedly, comparing the Old vs. New System in this way is like comparing apples to oranges, as it ignores all kinds of complexity inherent within both judging systems. For example, the tables emphasize the relative 'spread' or 'distance' between the competitors (e.g. how close they rank to one another; or how much further ahead one is to another). By design, the 6.0 System evenly and systematically 'spread' factor placements out between skaters based on their ranking in each portion of the event (the SP & LP). While these 'artificial' placements seem completely unfair to the CZE competitors (given how close we know the scoring was between 3rd to 13th place) it is important to remember it can also have the exact opposite effect:
Using today's results again as example: given Yuzuru and Chan's huge lead, many media have reported that it's mostly just a question of the colour of the medal for Yuzuru and Chan. However, it is doubtful such predictions would be made under the 6.0 System - certainly not in Canada - since an extra bunny-hop by Javier and Daisuke at the last second of their programs (in what would otherwise have been 3 equally skated & scored LP's) and Chan would return home without any hardware. Yuzuru too would have similar need to worry (although, in this scenario, Daisuke would need Chan or Javier to finish between himself and Yuzuru).
In other words, under the New System, the substantial 15-point spread that now exists between the [1st & 2nd] and the [3rd, 4th, 5th, ...] group of skaters would disappear under the 6.0 System; replaced by an easily surmountable 0.5 factor placements.
The long and the short of it: sometimes factor placements can work for you, and sometimes against you (...but that balance is what makes it fair).
Different Systems = Different Outcomes
It is exceedingly rare that so many competitors (>10) at any skating event would be scored so closely that for all intents and purposes they can be considered as being tied. Even moreso, since this 11-way tie is not just at any competition, but an Olympic Games for a spot on the podium! It is clear however that the dynamics that currently exist in the Men's event (and likely the final outcome tomorrow) would be completely different if the old 6.0 System were still utilized.
The existence of this dead heat competition, for the Olympic bronze medal, between 11 skaters, heading into the LP is a true anomaly; but interestingly is an anomaly that could ONLY have been born out of the current New Judging System! Does this make the New Judging System fairer than the Old 6.0 System? Regardless of whether you agree or disagree - I think we all can admit to being truly excited the New System will allow all of us to witness perhaps the greatest skating battle of all time for an Olympic medal!
Get your battle gear on!
Happy viewing!
Steve
.
Today's Men's SP provides a great example of how the New Judging System is much fairer than the old 6.0 System. Or is it...??
To compare the Old vs. New Judging SYSTEM (irrespective of the actual judging), today's SP scores were entered into the tables below to demonstrate the different impact of each system to the 'spread' (or how close each competitor is to one another). The first table compares everyone's scores to Yuzuru's high score of 101.45; whereas the second table focuses on the bronze medal race, and how close the group-of-11 is to Javier's 86.98 score.
Old vs. New Judging System (relative spread/distance of competitors to 1st place)
| ~~~~ New System ~~~~ | ~~ 6.0 System~~ | |||||||
| Score | š¯¯™ (1st) | % (1st) | Factor | % (1st) | ||||
| 1 | HANYU Yuzuru | JPN | 101.45 | 0.00 | 100% | 0.5 | 100% | |
| 2 | CHAN Patrick | CAN | 97.52 | -3.93 | 96% | 1.0 | 50% | |
| 3 | FERNANDEZ Javier | ESP | 86.98 | -14.47 | 86% | 1.5 | 33% | |
| 4 | TAKAHASHI Daisuke | JPN | 86.40 | -15.05 | 85% | 2.0 | 25% | |
| 5 | LIEBERS Peter | GER | 86.04 | -15.41 | 85% | 2.5 | 20% | |
| 6 | BROWN Jason | USA | 86.00 | -15.45 | 85% | 3.0 | 17% | |
| 7 | JOUBERT Brian | FRA | 85.84 | -15.61 | 85% | 3.5 | 14% | |
| 8 | YAN Han | CHN | 85.66 | -15.79 | 84% | 4.0 | 13% | |
| 9 | TEN Denis | KAZ | 84.06 | -17.39 | 83% | 4.5 | 11% | |
| 10 | MAJOROV Alexander | SWE | 83.81 | -17.64 | 83% | 5.0 | 10% | |
| 11 | MACHIDA Tatsuki | JPN | 83.48 | -17.97 | 82% | 5.5 | 9% | |
| 12 | BREZINA Michal | CZE | 81.95 | -19.50 | 81% | 6.0 | 8% | |
| 13 | VERNER Tomas | CZE | 81.09 | -20.36 | 80% | 6.5 | 8% |
Old vs. New Judging System (relative spread/distance of competitors to 3rd place)
| ~~~~ New System ~~~~ | ~~ 6.0 System~~ | |||||||
| Score | š¯¯™ (3rd) | % (3rd) | Factor | % (3rd) | ||||
| 1 | HANYU Yuzuru | JPN | 101.45 | 14.47 | 117% | 0.5 | 300% | |
| 2 | CHAN Patrick | CAN | 97.52 | 10.54 | 112% | 1.0 | 150% | |
| 3 | FERNANDEZ Javier | ESP | 86.98 | 0.00 | 100% | 1.5 | 100% | |
| 4 | TAKAHASHI Daisuke | JPN | 86.40 | -0.58 | 99% | 2.0 | 75% | |
| 5 | LIEBERS Peter | GER | 86.04 | -0.94 | 99% | 2.5 | 60% | |
| 6 | BROWN Jason | USA | 86.00 | -0.98 | 99% | 3.0 | 50% | |
| 7 | JOUBERT Brian | FRA | 85.84 | -1.14 | 99% | 3.5 | 43% | |
| 8 | YAN Han | CHN | 85.66 | -1.32 | 98% | 4.0 | 38% | |
| 9 | TEN Denis | KAZ | 84.06 | -2.92 | 97% | 4.5 | 33% | |
| 10 | MAJOROV Alexander | SWE | 83.81 | -3.17 | 96% | 5.0 | 30% | |
| 11 | MACHIDA Tatsuki | JPN | 83.48 | -3.50 | 96% | 5.5 | 27% | |
| 12 | BREZINA Michal | CZE | 81.95 | -5.03 | 94% | 6.0 | 25% | |
| 13 | VERNER Tomas | CZE | 81.09 | -5.89 | 93% | 6.5 | 23% |
What impact would the Old vs. New System have on the current standings?
The most notable observation from the tables above is that the current 11-way race for the bronze medal would NOT exist if the ordinals & factor placements from the 6.0 System were still being used:
For example, in the 6.0 System, the two CZE skaters would need to rank 5 places ahead of Javier in the LP to win the bronze; as compared to scoring just 5 and 6 points higher respectively in the LP (the equivalent of ~1 triple jump) with the New System. On the other hand, Daisuke or Peter Liebers would just need to simply beat Javier in the LP to claim 3rd (which seems more in line with the actuality of the New System being used in Sochi).
Or, to illustrate another way, consider if tomorrow both CZE competitors skate phenomenal LP's, each scoring over 200 points (setting new world records) and both 20+ points ahead of their nearest competitors. The duo would leave Sochi proudly wearing the gold & silver medals! But, under the 6.0 System, they would instead leave with only memories of what could have been... The reason: despite world record breaking LP performances, the current leaders (Yuzuru, Chan, Javier & Daisuke) would also ALL have to place outside the top-5 in the LP (with, the former two placing no higher than 7th). Anyone want to place a bet...?
Apples and Oranges?
Admittedly, comparing the Old vs. New System in this way is like comparing apples to oranges, as it ignores all kinds of complexity inherent within both judging systems. For example, the tables emphasize the relative 'spread' or 'distance' between the competitors (e.g. how close they rank to one another; or how much further ahead one is to another). By design, the 6.0 System evenly and systematically 'spread' factor placements out between skaters based on their ranking in each portion of the event (the SP & LP). While these 'artificial' placements seem completely unfair to the CZE competitors (given how close we know the scoring was between 3rd to 13th place) it is important to remember it can also have the exact opposite effect:
Using today's results again as example: given Yuzuru and Chan's huge lead, many media have reported that it's mostly just a question of the colour of the medal for Yuzuru and Chan. However, it is doubtful such predictions would be made under the 6.0 System - certainly not in Canada - since an extra bunny-hop by Javier and Daisuke at the last second of their programs (in what would otherwise have been 3 equally skated & scored LP's) and Chan would return home without any hardware. Yuzuru too would have similar need to worry (although, in this scenario, Daisuke would need Chan or Javier to finish between himself and Yuzuru).
In other words, under the New System, the substantial 15-point spread that now exists between the [1st & 2nd] and the [3rd, 4th, 5th, ...] group of skaters would disappear under the 6.0 System; replaced by an easily surmountable 0.5 factor placements.
The long and the short of it: sometimes factor placements can work for you, and sometimes against you (...but that balance is what makes it fair).
Different Systems = Different Outcomes
It is exceedingly rare that so many competitors (>10) at any skating event would be scored so closely that for all intents and purposes they can be considered as being tied. Even moreso, since this 11-way tie is not just at any competition, but an Olympic Games for a spot on the podium! It is clear however that the dynamics that currently exist in the Men's event (and likely the final outcome tomorrow) would be completely different if the old 6.0 System were still utilized.
The existence of this dead heat competition, for the Olympic bronze medal, between 11 skaters, heading into the LP is a true anomaly; but interestingly is an anomaly that could ONLY have been born out of the current New Judging System! Does this make the New Judging System fairer than the Old 6.0 System? Regardless of whether you agree or disagree - I think we all can admit to being truly excited the New System will allow all of us to witness perhaps the greatest skating battle of all time for an Olympic medal!
Get your battle gear on!
Happy viewing!
Steve
.
