The Risky Skaters and the Non-Risky Skaters.

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Going by and agreeing with Evgeni's statement that he is concerned only by the risk taking competitors.

The risk takers: Evgeni. He goes for it
Joubert - He, too will go for the quads
Stephane - Undoubtedly he didn't have to at World but he went for the quads anyway.
Emmanuel - Will try the quad.
Tim will try the quad(s)
Michael - maybe. He seems to be slowing down.
Li will definitely go for the quads.

Irina No problem. She'll do as many 3x3s as she is allowed
Kimmie She'll do the 3A. At her age. It is ok.
BeBe - She's working on the 3A and will risk it.
Carolina - She will 3x3x2or 3.
Shizuka - Another 3x3x2 and determined.

The rest of the competitors will not take risks and rely soley on their past performances and established styles. The non riskerswill try to skate their very best, avoid falling and expect huge score in pcs. am I correct?

Joe

 

[attyfan]

How do you define "risk-takers" vs. "non-risk-takers"? Is it the chances of success in doing the move? For example, whether Plushy is or is not taking risks in his jumps depends (IMO) on the chances of injury -- because his chances of landing them are very good -- so if he tries a jump and he is healthy, he isn't really taking a lot of risks. If the "risk" concerns only the effect on the competitive results, without regard to health, than Michelle Kwan (for example) will be taking a big risk (of losing) if she doesn't get a 3/3. The third possiblity (that "risk takers" are doing things that they know will endanger the health but are doing it anyway) merely indicates that some skaters have (IMO) a really weird set of priorities.

 

[Ptichka]

Joe, it's an interesting questoin. On the one hand, for example, I agree with you that Irina is a risk taker. On the other hand, I think it was not taking the risk that largely cost her the gold in SLC. I think of the skaters you analyze only Plushy is a true risk taker in the sense that he'll take a risk even if he doesn't have to, just for the sake of the risk itself.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

First of all I think the quad for a guy is risky no matter who. I think Plushy is one heluva jumper and while one expects him to make the quad, we have to wait to be sure because it is a risky jump. He's been working on a quad lutz, so I hear. If he takes that risk, ya gotta give him da gold. But ok, a healthy Plush may not need more than one quad.

Stephane had a quad in the SP and in the LP plus one in combo. All quad toes. He will not hold back on that jump and that combo in future events. He takes chances even when he doesn't have to. If he gets that quad sal. Whoa Plushy. He outspins you.

Joubert had a bad skate in Moscow, but if you look at that faulty LP, he was showing some rythym and body language. That is what is going to make him more competitive for gold. His quad is basically secure, and if he gets another one, and continues to move with finesse over the ice, he will be competitive for gold.

Irina is definitely the Queen of the Technical. Although 3x3s are risky, I don't see her having too much trouble, but hey, ya never know. What I don't like about Irina is her skating appears to me to be too cautious. She should let loose more and that would be risky for her.

Carolina is about the right age to tug at your heart and if she comes up with 3x3x3 - a very risky move - she just may do it for gold in her home town.

Kimmie, if she goes, will take the risk of a 3A and be the only one there to do it. If she hits, then her scores will go up just as her age will tug at your heart.

The above are just my top risk takers whom I think will exploit big jumps whether they win or not.

The non risk skaters, as I said, will not take risks but will skate their best. However, the above named will get the audience going wild, and the roar of the crowd will definitley influence the judging. JMO

Joe

 

[Doggygirl]

IMO, the biggest risk is in the SP for Ladies and Men

I personally think it is a much bigger risk to try a quad (men) or 3/3 or 3A (ladies) in the SP. So that's the part of the event I will be watching most closely to see who the REAL risk takers are.

At this stage, I can easily see Plush, Joubert, and Lambiel (and maybe E-man) coming out next season with a quad attempt in the SP.

Ladies? Not sure who might come with a 3/3 in the short other than maybe Carolina, and some of the "up and comers" (i.e. Mao, Kimmie, etc.) who have "nothing to lose." I will be MIGHTILY impessed if some of of the seasoned Sr. Ladies such as Irina (possibly for point advantage in an Oly year - might want to "go for broke" and she's had reasonable success recently with 3/3), Shiz (to try to capitalize point wise on such a risk and prove she "can"), etc. I will owe some betting person at least $10 if seasoned ladies such as SC or MK take such a risk, because I have a hard time imagining that from either one of them. That's understandable since a fall or other disaster could potentially have more negative impact in the SP relative to the possible gain for succeeding.

Under the 04/05 scale of values as an example, a 2 Loop is worth 1.5 base value, but a 3 Loop is worth 5 in base value. Gaining a lead in the SP is something I think the "gutsy" younger or "non-favorite" skaters can do to gain some real advantage. (an extra 3.5 points by doing a 3 something/ 3 Loop v. 3 somthing 2 Loop). The content of the SP's for the top ladies is typically pretty similar, so grabbing the extra points (and taking the extra risk) to try a 3/3 (or even 3A for people like Kimmie) seems worthwhile since they have Nothing To Lose.

Joe, this is a great speculative topic, and just makes me DYING even more for the season to begin!

DG

 

[hockeyfan228]

Rochette has been attempting and landing 3T/3T, but I'm not sure if that's considered a risky 3/3.

 

[gezando]

Risk is one side of the coin, benefit is the other.

Generally, high risk implies high reward. I don't know how coaches work this out with their skaters. IIRC, Frank set that at a consistency of 70 - 80% in practice before he recommends his skaters to put that in competition,

I imagine Miki Ando will continue to take the high risk of the 4s, and Mao will continue to take the high risk of 3a, or 3/3/3

 

[mzheng]

I personally think it is a much bigger risk to try a quad (men) or 3/3 or 3A (ladies) in the SP. So that's the part of the event I will be watching most closely to see who the REAL risk takers are.

DG

IMO, that's the old way of thinking in 6.0 system. In CoP you got basically the same points on these elements in SP or LP. There is no such thing, under CoP, as if you missed one in SP you got more severe deduction than in LP.

If one only has to do one of these elements in whole competetion, my advise to them would be put into the SP than in LP. If you are going to do both, that's another story. In SP, since it is short, less staminia issue, less risky on losing concentration such that doing the difficult jump pass but messed up with the easy one late. Thus, IMO, if you are going to risk those jump elements, risk it in SP instead of LP!

 

[Doggygirl]

IMO, that's the old way of thinking in 6.0 system. In CoP you got basically the same points on these elements in SP or LP. There is no such thing, under CoP, as if you missed one in SP you got more severe deduction than in LP.

If one only has to do one of these elements in whole competetion, my advise to them would be put into the SP than in LP. If you are going to do both, that's another story. In SP, since it is short, less staminia issue, less risky on losing concentration such that doing the difficult jump pass but messed up with the easy one late. Thus, IMO, if you are going to risk those jump elements, risk it in SP instead of LP!

Actually, the reason the SP risk is so interesting to me has not to do with the length of the program (although stamina is certainly a factor) - it is the opportunity to potentially gain a decent lead following the SP into the LP. In the old 6.0 days, a "lead" in the SP only meant you were one place ahead of the next guy. These days, the amount of the lead can potentially matter a great deal. That's why I'm thinking those competitors with "nothing to lose" (different things to different competitors) might just take more risk in the SP to gain advantage.

Who knows... we shall all see next season!

DG

 

[screech]

There are ways other than jumps to be risky. Like Jeff choreographically and musically with Naqoyqatsy (a risk that definitely worked for him). Or Mishelle taking a risk with Bolero (a risk that didn't turn out quite so well). Plushy risking his health to keep skating this season rather than to let himself rest and heal, and Irina's determination to keep on keeping on with her health issues. A skater doesn't have to attempt a quad to be risky - in fact, it can be risky not to do so, because it can be a risk to rely on other aspects of skating to help you with your marks than to rely on a jump.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Who knows... we shall all see next season! DG

Next season is upon us and in three months at Skate America it will be this season.

I really think there is so much talent in Singles skating both Men and Ladies. I think Taking Risks will be the main factor in deciding a winner provided, of course, the risk was fruitful. We know how they all skate at their best. Now we must look to see if the 'off season' got them some consistency with a first time higher level element.

Those who do their standard programs without any risk taking, imo, will win only if the risk takers miss. That kind of strategy, though, is also risky. Think Kwan/Lipinski. Playing it cautiously can be risky.

I think fans should forget their favorite skaters and watch closely and realisticly the GPs.

Joe

 

[attyfan]

Next season is upon us and in three months at Skate America it will be this season. ...

Those who do their standard programs without any risk taking, imo, will win only if the risk takers miss. That kind of strategy, though, is also risky. Think Kwan/Lipinski. Playing it cautiously can be risky.

I think fans should forget their favorite skaters and watch closely and realisticly the GPs.

Joe

Two points. One is that you need to remember there are different risks.. Kwan took one risk (i.e, playing it cautious); she lost gold, but is still skating. Tara took a different risk; she won, but is injured.

Second, the GP will be revealing, but not necessarily a good predictor. Was there anything in the GP that pointed to the results at Worlds for Lysacek, Lambiel, or Joubert? Or for Rochette, Cohen, or Arakawa?

 

[Crizzy]

Joubert can have a quad and even risk another one but his spins is subpar and that's where he is hurting. Shiz took the risk of having a 3/3 which was downgraded and lost major points. Sometimes the risk can backfire. Actually, Buttle and Weir don't even have the mighty 4s for now and their doing pretty well under CoP. Now when Plushy returns, the quads will be necessary but not a must. OTOH Plushy don't even take risks with quads, he's been doing it for so long that sometimes I think it's second nature to him which is scary.

Tim G. formerly known as The Quad King hasn't been doing fairly under CoP. He can have the quads back next season but his PCS and NJS will be low unless he does a major overhaul.

I'm hoping Michelle would have at least one 3/3 under her arsenal but above all the 3/3s, quads, 3axel risks, I'm more hoping for a chock full of choreography risk taking from EVERYONE. Right now, many of the lay out or the foundation of the program look like they came out of the Ford Factory. Jeez, enough with the Twizzles and COE camel spins already. :frown2:

 

[Ladskater]

Going by and agreeing with Evgeni's statement that he is concerned only by the risk taking competitors.

The risk takers: Evgeni. He goes for it
Joubert - He, too will go for the quads
Stephane - Undoubtedly he didn't have to at World but he went for the quads anyway.
Emmanuel - Will try the quad.
Tim will try the quad(s)
Michael - maybe. He seems to be slowing down.
Li will definitely go for the quads.

Irina No problem. She'll do as many 3x3s as she is allowed
Kimmie She'll do the 3A. At her age. It is ok.
BeBe - She's working on the 3A and will risk it.
Carolina - She will 3x3x2or 3.
Shizuka - Another 3x3x2 and determined.

The rest of the competitors will not take risks and rely soley on their past performances and established styles. The non riskerswill try to skate their very best, avoid falling and expect huge score in pcs. am I correct?

Joe

You forgot to mention Jeff Buttle - he is becoming a risk taker. He is working on his quad and knows he will need it in upcoming events.

 

[nymkfan51]

Just a couple of things Joe.

I wouldn't put Bebe in this category of risk takers yet. Just because she's working on it, is in no way an indication that she will do it. That's yet to be seen.

As as for Michelle in Nagano, please remember she was still recovering from a stress fracture in her foot. She had been doing a 3/3, but could not train it in the months leading up to the Olympics. Some may call her not trying it in Nagano as being cautious, I would say that trying it would have been pure idiocy.

I'm sure you're right that many of these skaters will go for it in Torino, and probably many of them will fail. Who knows? I will be very interested to see if one of these young stars skates a clean program with a "big element" landed cleanly, will they beat, say a favorite going in, who also skates cleanly (but a bit cautiously) with no big element.

 

[attyfan]

Just a couple of things Joe ... .

I'm sure you're right that many of these skaters will go for it in Torino, and probably many of them will fail. Who knows? I will be very interested to see if one of these young stars skates a clean program with a "big element" landed cleanly, will they beat, say a favorite going in, who also skates cleanly (but a bit cautiously) with no big element.

Isn't that what happened to Sarah Hughes in SLC? IIRC, Irina was a favorite; she was clean, (at least she didn't fall) but over cautious -- not even trying her 3/3.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Just a couple of things Joe.

I wouldn't put Bebe in this category of risk takers yet. Just because she's working on it, is in no way an indication that she will do it. That's yet to be seen.

As as for Michelle in Nagano, please remember she was still recovering from a stress fracture in her foot. She had been doing a 3/3, but could not train it in the months leading up to the Olympics. Some may call her not trying it in Nagano as being cautious, I would say that trying it would have been pure idiocy.

I'm sure you're right that many of these skaters will go for it in Torino, and probably many of them will fail. Who knows? I will be very interested to see if one of these young stars skates a clean program with a "big element" landed cleanly, will they beat, say a favorite going in, who also skates cleanly (but a bit cautiously) with no big element.

Nymkfan51 - Please feel free to say the ones I picked as risk takers are not all they should be and the ones I just left can be moved into the risktakers spot.

BeBe, As I said in another thread has spunk. Two things here: She has to make it to the Olys - not easy. Then to 3A or not to 3A. I think she will if she qualifies.. She has nothing to lose. She'll definitely be back. Also I think if the 3A is ready we will see it at Nats, I am sure.

Risk as has been pointed out is a double edge sword. If one hits a quad or 3A successfully then there will lots of points to get. If one misses the quad or 3A it could be downgraded (and still get points) or missed entirely and get zilch.

The no-risker has to rely on others making mistakes. The no-risker is not in control of what the competitor will do.

Joe

 

[nymkfan51]

attyfan, yes that did happen in SLC. The only difference now will be COP. So maybe a cautious skater could rack up extra points with spins and spirals, and maybe only 6 clean triples ... but still place ahead of the skater with the big element? That is what I am wondering.

Joe, I like Bebe a lot. But you are right ... she will have her hands full just making the team. From what I have heard, Emily Hughes has started her season off very well at the Liberty comp. Not to mention Kimmie. So you are probably right ... Bebe might really need to go for the 3A just to make the team.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

attyfan, yes that did happen in SLC. The only difference now will be COP. So maybe a cautious skater could rack up extra points with spins and spirals, and maybe only 6 clean triples ... but still place ahead of the skater with the big element? That is what I am wondering.

nymkfan51 - Imo, the only time spins get the crowd going is when they are continuous beyond the minimum required. This is a big advantage for Stephane, who in reality does not spin any more special than Buttle but Stephane spins and spins and spins and that's why people eat it up (and the judges, too).

I know we are both fans of MK but she is not the world's best spinner, and her arabesque change of edge is fine, but what I call 'fans' are not the greatest. She jumps well, but she needs a combo(s) to take risks. Much depends on whether she appears in Atlantic City, will we know she is motivated. Otherwise, I for one, will not be expecting a 'surprise' in Torino. But she will skate beautifully.

I believe my theory about the crowd influencing the judges, especially at the Olys works well. Can MK get those Europeans to give her a blast?

Joe

 

[attyfan]

...
I believe my theory about the crowd influencing the judges, especially at the Olys works well. Can MK get those Europeans to give her a blast?

Joe

I thought MK got the audience to give her a blast in Dortmund, but that might have been prompted by the streaker. However, that same streaker also disrupted a diving competition in the Athens Olys -- so he might try Torino. (The crowd, however, might take him for a terrorist -- if, so MK can jump on his face)