U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[R.D.]

These are not the days of Kwan and Cohen. No one- and I mean NO ONE- is a lock for anything.

 

[Layfan]

Who around here is saying Rachael's a non-factor? I haven't seen anyone say that in this forum.

It's true, everyone has sort of forgotten about Caroline (except Polymer ) ... it'll be interesting to see how she does at nationals. Anyone know anything about her practices are going? And Ashley too. Let's not forget about Ashley.

 

[samba]

It's sad to say Caroline has very slim chance to make to the podium, IMO. It was quite painful watching Caroline skated at Skate America, she tried so hard, my heart broke for her. Do not write off Rachael or Ashley. I think Nationals will be very interesting. I hope all of them skate well.

 

[Mathman]

If the judges don't judge what they see on the ice, quite frankly I do not see much difference between these two scenarios.

To me, there is a tiny bit of difference. The judging at Nationals, whether good or bad, is all out there on public display. At least we can throw tomatoes at the judges.

 

[silverlake22]

I'm still hoping the GPF results have lit a fire in Christina's belly and she'll come to nationals in top form and ready to fight

 

[bigsisjiejie]

I'm still hoping the GPF results have lit a fire in Christina's belly and she'll come to nationals in top form and ready to fight

Well, that may happen, but from what I saw at the JGPF, Christina Gao is simply not that good of a skater yet. Either that, or the promise she showed last year has been temporarily derailed by body changes and i-don't-know-what. I do not expect her to be on the US podium. But even if she is, the USFS would be insane to send her to Senior Worlds--she simply can't be competitive there and by my rough estimation, even skating well, is unlikely to place higher than 10th and maybe more like 12-15th. Even Junior Worlds is going to be a challenge for her to podium, given the competition she's likely to be up against. What bothers me most is not her TES issues, but the PCS side, where she is noticeably off the pace of the best of the intl junior ladies. I find her skating somewhat bland and colourless in general, and I thought that last year also. I think it's just not her time yet.

 

[silverlake22]

Well, that may happen, but from what I saw at the JGPF, Christina Gao is simply not that good of a skater yet. Either that, or the promise she showed last year has been temporarily derailed by body changes and i-don't-know-what. I do not expect her to be on the US podium. But even if she is, the USFS would be insane to send her to Senior Worlds--she simply can't be competitive there and by my rough estimation, even skating well, is unlikely to place higher than 10th and maybe more like 12-15th. Even Junior Worlds is going to be a challenge for her to podium, given the competition she's likely to be up against. What bothers me most is not her TES issues, but the PCS side, where she is noticeably off the pace of the best of the intl junior ladies. I find her skating somewhat bland and colourless in general, and I thought that last year also. I think it's just not her time yet.

I think PCS on junior competitions tend to be a whole lot lower than at senior competitions - case in point, Ksenia Makarova. She was on the JGP and her TES and PCS scores were not very high at all, and then she went on to Euros, the Olympics, and Senior Worlds and her scores were much better, especially the PCS side of things. Her scores on the JGP were on average quite a bit lower than what Christina has been putting up this season, but she was still able to crack the top 10 at Euros, the Olympics, and Worlds and that was with her doing no lutz and 1 flip in her LP.

Also, look at Kanako's scores this season compared to last season - the content she is doing hasn't really changed but her scores have gone up a lot.

The other thing is at domestic competitions in Russia the Russian juniors are putting up way, way higher scores than they earn on the JGP, Adelina scored over 130 points for her FS at a Cup of Russia event and even Polina Shelepen scored 115 for her FS at a Cup of Russia event.

So basically, I think if Christina were to go to 4CC or Worlds and hit 7 triples in her FS, her score would be much higher than 101. And at nationals she's probably looking at around 120 if she hits her jumps, considering Rachael Flatt got 130 last season.

 

[silverlake22]

Well, that may happen, but from what I saw at the JGPF, Christina Gao is simply not that good of a skater yet. Either that, or the promise she showed last year has been temporarily derailed by body changes and i-don't-know-what. I do not expect her to be on the US podium. But even if she is, the USFS would be insane to send her to Senior Worlds--she simply can't be competitive there and by my rough estimation, even skating well, is unlikely to place higher than 10th and maybe more like 12-15th. Even Junior Worlds is going to be a challenge for her to podium, given the competition she's likely to be up against. What bothers me most is not her TES issues, but the PCS side, where she is noticeably off the pace of the best of the intl junior ladies. I find her skating somewhat bland and colourless in general, and I thought that last year also. I think it's just not her time yet.

Also if you feel this way about Christina, do you also feel the same about Agnes - that is would be crazy for the USFSA to send her to senior worlds if she places 1st or 2nd because her scores this season haven't been that high?

I actually think there is a strong possibility that both Christina and Agnes could probably finish ahead of Rachael and Ashley if they were sent to Worlds and skated well. It just wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[bigsisjiejie]

Also if you feel this way about Christina, do you also feel the same about Agnes - that is would be crazy for the USFSA to send her to senior worlds if she places 1st or 2nd because her scores this season haven't been that high?

Yes, somewhat the same for a 2nd place finish (I think if she ends up in 1st place, rules say she gets to go so USFS has no choice). Except Agnes has at least competed on the Senior international circuit now, while Christina has been limited to Juniors. But I don't think Agnes has yet earned her chops with the intl judges at the Senior level. She's another one still baking in the oven, not quite done yet.

 

[silverlake22]

Yes, somewhat the same for a 2nd place finish (I think if she ends up in 1st place, rules say she gets to go so USFS has no choice). Except Agnes has at least competed on the Senior international circuit now, while Christina has been limited to Juniors. But I don't think Agnes has yet earned her chops with the intl judges at the Senior level. She's another one still baking in the oven, not quite done yet.

While I agree with this and to an extent about Christina, the reality is that those two girls are probably the most reliable jumpers we have at the moment. They rarely get issued URs and can do all the triples and 3-3 combinations. So I tend to think if either girl were to hit all the jumps at Worlds, they'd do just fine and have no trouble breaking the top 10. And similarly, if they land all their jumps at nationals (which doesn't seem impossible because they are, or at least used to be, very consistent with their triples) I could see them finishing in 1st or 2nd if others make mistakes, and not even neccessarily big mistakes, just due to TES.

 

[R.D.]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Silverlake's relentless defending of Gao here actually brings up a valid point often forgotten: you cannot count someone out after ONE bad performance. People are doing the same thing re. Flatt, and to a lesser extent, Wagner. All the talk is on Czisny and Nagasu. Arguably rightfully so- but remember Asada last year? Who would have thought she would win the Olympic Silver Medal after the eggs she laid early in the season? Flatt and Wagner are probably the two strongest competitors (keyword: competitors) in the US field and the ones most likely to be a threat anyway. Nagasu is an honorable mention.

This upcoming Nationals is probably the fork in the road for Czisny's career. If it doesn't work out here it probably never will. At least she can enjoy the GP victory. No small feat.

 

[Layfan]

I agree and I'VE been saying all along not to count out Rachael or Ashley. Nobody ever listens to me. just kidding...

I don't agree that Ashley is a better competitor than Mirai and the results of their careers don't support that. Regardless, everyone seems to have forgotten about Ashley - she could very well be a factor at nationals.

ETA: Leaving aside all the speculation on this board, I'm certain none of the USA ladies are counting each other out or have forgotten about each other

 

[silverlake22]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Silverlake's relentless defending of Gao here actually brings up a valid point often forgotten: you cannot count someone out after ONE bad performance. People are doing the same thing re. Flatt, and to a lesser extent, Wagner. All the talk is on Czisny and Nagasu. Arguably rightfully so- but remember Asada last year? Who would have thought she would win the Olympic Silver Medal after the eggs she laid early in the season? Flatt and Wagner are probably the two strongest competitors (keyword: competitors) in the US field and the ones most likely to be a threat anyway. Nagasu is an honorable mention.

This upcoming Nationals is probably the fork in the road for Czisny's career. If it doesn't work out here it probably never will. At least she can enjoy the GP victory. No small feat.

You are totally right. Nobody should be counted out, including Rachael, Christina, Agnes, Ashley, etc, etc - even Caroline or some OAS because anything can happen at nationals.

 

[R.D.]

I don't agree that Ashley is a better competitor than Mirai and the results of their careers don't support that.

I'm looking at this from a mental toughness/consistency standpoint- which is why I used the word COMPETITOR over SKATER.

but they are very close.

 

[janetfan]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Silverlake's relentless defending of Gao here actually brings up a valid point often forgotten: you cannot count someone out after ONE bad performance. People are doing the same thing re. Flatt, and to a lesser extent, Wagner. All the talk is on Czisny and Nagasu. Arguably rightfully so- but remember Asada last year? Who would have thought she would win the Olympic Silver Medal after the eggs she laid early in the season? Flatt and Wagner are probably the two strongest competitors (keyword: competitors) in the US field and the ones most likely to be a threat anyway. Nagasu is an honorable mention.

This upcoming Nationals is probably the fork in the road for Czisny's career. If it doesn't work out here it probably never will. At least she can enjoy the GP victory. No small feat.

How can you compare Mao with Rachael and Ashley

Are you trying to create an international incident

Mao skates in a different universe than Flatt and Wagoner.
Mao won Natls last season and then won 4CC leading into the Olympics and then won Worlds.

I expected her to atleast win Silver in Vancouver because she a not just a great skater but also can rise to the occassion.

Alissa has won three GP gold medals which is three more than Flatt and Wagoner combined.

How does that make them stronger than Alissa :think:

 

[Layfan]

I'm looking at this from a mental toughness/consistency standpoint- which is why I used the word COMPETITOR over SKATER.

but they are very close.

I knew exactly what you meant and I don't agree.

I find a little puzzling how many times Rachael and Ashley can mess up in competition and yet you and some others still can't let go of the idea that they are the best competitors among the U.S. ladies. I think they are good competitors but hardly as reliable as many believe. Has Ashley even ever had two back-to-back clean programs in a major senior competition? :think:

All four of the leading U.S. ladies have been worlds.

Ashley was 15th at hers.

Rachael was 5th and 9th.

Alissa was 15th (or something, can't remember) and 11th

Mirai was 7th.

Whoopie. They've ALL laid eggs at worlds. Mirai's finished highest among them even though she did lay an egg so that's something but not much.

Alissa has been the best of all of them this season. So far...

Anyway, we both seem to agree on the basic point: None of these ladies should be counted out at nationals.

 

[FlattFan]

How can you compare Mao with Rachael and Ashley

Are you trying to create an international incident

Mao skates in a different universe than Flatt and Wagoner.
Mao won Natls last season and then won 4CC leading into the Olympics and then won Worlds.

I expected her to atleast win Silver in Vancouver because she a not just a great skater but also can rise to the occassion.

Alissa has won three GP gold medals which is three more than Flatt and Wagoner combined.

How does that make them stronger than Alissa :think:

Pure luck.
Alissa should not have won in the GPF. Her jumps in both SP and LP are not called.
She was competing for a long time.
Rachael should have won SA this year.

 

[R.D.]

I knew exactly what you meant and I don't agree.

I find a little puzzling how many times Rachael and Ashley can mess up in competition and yet you and some others still can't let go of the idea that they are the best competitors among the U.S. ladies. I think they are good competitors but hardly as reliable as many believe. Has Ashley even ever had two back-to-back clean programs in a major senior competition? :think:

How do they compare to Czisny? to Zhang? to Gao, Zawadzki, Gilles even? They all have bombed, yes. But some bomb more than others. That's really my point. It's all RELATIVE.

Flatt didn't get the nickname "Reliable Rachel" for no reason. Up until recently (when the judges began to take her apart) you practically never saw her fall or 1x/2x jumps.

It's probably pretty clear now we won't see eye-to-eye on this issue, though, so I'll stop pressing it.

 

[Layfan]

How do they compare to Czisny? to Zhang? to Gao, Zawadzki, Gilles even? They all have bombed, yes. But some bomb more than others. That's really my point. It's all RELATIVE.

Flatt didn't get the nickname "Reliable Rachel" for no reason. Up until recently (when the judges began to take her apart) you practically never saw her fall or 1x/2x jumps.

It's probably pretty clear now we won't see eye-to-eye on this issue, though, so I'll stop pressing it.

It's true they have stayed on their feet more often than the above mentioned skaters. I really only disagreed that Ashley was a tougher competitor that Mirai. In any case, it doesn't matter. We'll see what happens at nationals. They have a great chance. I wouldn't be surprised to see anything of them win.

 

[dwiggin3]

Wow, really? I guess I just don't see what you and other see in Christina and Agnes. I've watched them move through the ranks and they have some talent but to think they'll medal at Nationals much less be in the top 5...Different strokes for differnt folks.