U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[Layfan]

Yep, I now predict Alissa Czisny will either win Nationals or place second, either way she's on the team, even if she only lands 3 triples like she did at 2009 US Nationals against a 7-triple Rachael Flatt. Btw, I think she will land more than that this time around, she's on an upward momentum! :thumbsup:

This is her year, and I honestly hope she makes the most of it at Nationals & Worlds. At least redeem herself by earning back 3 spots for Worlds, as it was her that lost 3 spots for the Olympics. No, that I don't forget, but my anger at her has lessened.

It remains to be seen if she's a team player, as hopefully in the future the Olympics does include a Team Event, which has been much talked about. ^)

Actually, it was Kimmie, Bebe and Ashley who lost the third spot.

Are you blaming Alissa for not winning it back? Because in the case are you also angry at Rachael and Mirai for not winning it back last year? Angry seems like an awfully strong word. I mean I'm sure Alissa didn't mean to personally offend anyone by skating badly at worlds - or Rachael or Mirai last year. I'm sure they are annoyed enough at themselves.

 

[R.D.]

Czisny now tops the season's best list with an 180+ score (beating the two junior wunderkids). This is getting very interesting. It seems she is gaining momentum. She's looking good for Nationals.

It appears so...but she still has to deliver. Coming off a GPF victory, expectations will be higher than usual. I wish her luck because she's gonna need it.

I still think it's VERY possible that she bombs at least one segment of Nats- or at least, doesn't skate up to her potential.

 

[Layfan]

With only two spots for the world team, of course Alissa will have to deliver.

I hope her victory today gives her confidence - not more nerves. But this season, Alissa has seemed more relaxed and confident all along. At least, her game face has been better. Even after she made mistakes in her GP events she continued to sell her programs and finished off with a big smile. Usually, with Alissa it's either skate amazingly finish high or get buried in the standings. But this season, she has showed a lot of grit and has fought to stay on the podium even when she makes a mistake.

And her programs are my absolute favorites of the U.S. ladies this season.

 

[R.D.]

But this season, [Czisny] has showed a lot of fight and has fought to stay on the podium even when she makes a mistake.

That right there, may be the difference.

 

[Nadine]

Actually, it was Kimmie, Bebe and Ashley who lost the third spot.

Are you blaming Alissa for not winning it back? Because in the case are you also angry at Rachael and Mirai for not winning it back last year? Angry seems like an awfully strong word. I mean I'm sure Alissa didn't mean to personally offend anyone by skating badly at worlds - or Rachael or Mirai last year. I'm sure they are annoyed enough at themselves.

No, I don't care what anyone says, how they try to justify such & such for not earning 3 spots for the Olympics. It was Alissa, plain & simple, all's she needed to do was place 8th, but no, she wiped the floor with her skate and came in 11th place. I even thought the USA would only get 1 spot after her performance at Worlds.

So I was glad they placed her 12th at 2010 US Nationals. And the gushing about her is a huge turn off for me, as I simply have never been enraptured/entranced/or whatever with how she skates, though I acknowledge she's like Angela Nikodinov after the transformation. I don't get her, never have. She's been on the international scene for almost 10 yrs., since 2002, and her rise to me just proves how far down not only the USA has dropped, but also this new COP scoring system. Alissa never stood out when Michelle, Sarah, Sasha and some others were skating, but she does now thanks to the COP.

I acknowledge her win at the GPF, but I still haven't forgotten how many eggs she's laid, and if she makes the World Team and lays another egg just like her teammate Abbott I won't be so forgiving this time. And as a fan of USA figure skating I can be angry as much as I want, at her or whatnot, so don't preach to me.

That said, GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ALISSA!!!!!!!!!! AND RACHAEL, MIRAI, ASHLEY, CAROLINE, ET AL!!!!!

 

[samba]

Alissa is totally different skater ths season, she needs to build up her confidence which seemed to be her case now. I got the feeling that she will do well at Nationals and very likely will make the US Worlds team. She has many skills that many skaters do not have, her grace and spin have helped put her on the podium. Eventually, her confidence will help secure her jumps as well.

 

[Layfan]

No, I don't care what anyone says, how they try to justify such & such for not earning 3 spots for the Olympics. It was Alissa, plain & simple, all's she needed to do was place 8th, but no, she wiped the floor with her skate and came in 11th place. I even thought the USA would only get 1 spot after her performance at Worlds.

So I was glad they placed her 12th at 2010 US Nationals. And the gushing about her is a huge turn off for me, as I simply have never been enraptured/entranced/or whatever with how she skates, though I acknowledge she's like Angela Nikodinov after the transformation. I don't get her, never have. She's been on the international scene for almost 10 yrs., since 2002, and her rise to me just proves how far down not only the USA has dropped, but also this new COP scoring system. Alissa never stood out when Michelle, Sarah, Sasha and some others were skating, but she does now thanks to the COP.

I acknowledge her win at the GPF, but I still haven't forgotten how many eggs she's laid, and if she makes the World Team and lays another egg just like her teammate Abbott I won't be so forgiving this time. And as a fan of USA figure skating I can be angry as much as I want, at her or whatnot, so don't preach to me.

That said, GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ALISSA!!!!!!!!!! AND RACHAEL, MIRAI, ASHLEY, CAROLINE, ET AL!!!!!

You can be as angry as you want - fair enough. We all have different ways of enjoying figure skating and being fans. If the three spots are a big part of what you are watching for - fair enough. Sorry to have even gotten into this.

I remember you saying in an earlier post that Alissa's programs this year were among your favorites. I agree. Good luck to her at nat and I hope Rachael and Mirai do well too and are over their injuries and how that affected their training.

 

[silverlake22]

Yep, I now predict Alissa Czisny will either win Nationals or place second, either way she's on the team, even if she only lands 3 triples like she did at 2009 US Nationals against a 7-triple Rachael Flatt. Btw, I think she will land more than that this time around, she's on an upward momentum! :thumbsup:

This is her year, and I honestly hope she makes the most of it at Nationals & Worlds. At least redeem herself by earning back 3 spots for Worlds, as it was her that lost 3 spots for the Olympics. No, that I don't forget, but my anger at her has lessened.

It remains to be seen if she's a team player, as hopefully in the future the Olympics does include a Team Event, which has been much talked about. ^)

I still say Alissa needs to deliver at nationals to make the World Team. If we had 3 spots, I'd agree and say she's a lock, but with only 2 spots, if she tanks and 2 other girls skate well then the 2 girls who skated well will be on the team and Alissa will be out of luck. I also still think Mirai has better odds to medal at Worlds, pretty much all of Alissa's triples are 1/4 turn cheated, so it's a fine line and depends on the caller if her jumps get downgraded or not. Mirai also seems to be a tougher competitor and can probably score higher in the FS than Alissa can if she skates well, Alissa max FS score seems to be 115-120 range, but with Yuna coming back, Miki skating well, Kanako on the rise, Laura possibly being a factor by then, and the possibility that Mao will bounce back, it's likely a FS score of 120-130+ will be needed to land on the podium at Worlds.

 

[R.D.]

Look, even with 3 spots, Alyssa's bombing potential can take her right out of the running from the get-go. The key for her is to set the tone with her SP, build a lead- a cushion for herself so she can afford a mistake or two in the FS and still win overall.

 

[janetfan]

Look, even with 3 spots, Alyssa's bombing potential can take her right out of the running from the get-go. .

A certain skater went beyond "bombing potential" today. Very sad and hope she does better next time.

Alissa won the GPF.

Is that clear - or are you still confused by what actually happened?

 

[herios]

I still say Alissa needs to deliver at nationals to make the World Team. If we had 3 spots, I'd agree and say she's a lock, but with only 2 spots, if she tanks and 2 other girls skate well then the 2 girls who skated well will be on the team and Alissa will be out of luck. I also still think Mirai has better odds to medal at Worlds, pretty much all of Alissa's triples are 1/4 turn cheated, so it's a fine line and depends on the caller if her jumps get downgraded or not..

Hm, and who's jumps get more often downgraded? It is Mirai actually and not Alissa. Mirai has demonstraded that she is also able to bomb or several of her jumps get downgraded.

 

[R.D.]

A certain skater went beyond "bombing potential" today. Very sad and hope she does better next time.

Alissa won the GPF.

Is that clear - or are you still confused by what actually happened?

No need to be a smart aleck about it- I know exactly what happened, and I know exactly what both skaters are capable of. Sometimes it works out; other times it doesn't.

Congrats to Alyssa for the victory- I'm glad a US lady FINALLY wins something major internationally. As for Flatt, hope she does better next time. Simple as that.

 

[bekalc]

It was Alissa, plain & simple, all's she needed to do was place 8th, but no, she wiped the floor with her skate and came in 11th place. I even thought the USA would only get 1 spot after her performance at Worlds.

NO its not Alissa's fault. It was the fault of the USFSA judges. The USFSA judges KNEW Alissa was inconsistent, and when you have an inconsistent skater, you should make said skater deliver 2 solid skates before you put them in a qualifying situation. That didn't happen at that nationals.

People keep on asking if Meissner and company is blamed for losing the spots to begin with, or if Nagasu/Flatt are blamed. And I'd argue that the difference is that nobody doubts that all of those girls pretty much were the correct team to take. I mean one could argue Nagasu/Wagner but Mirai did out skate Ashley at Nationals. And Mirai's skate at the Olympics seals that deal. And so cest la vie. The reason people were so upset about 2009 was because Zhang and Flatt were clearly at the time the more consistent skaters, and they showed that at Nationals, and the judges instead choose to roll the dice on inconsistent Alissa. When sending their consistent skaters probably would have done the trick.

I don't blame Alissa for losing the spots because while her short program stunk, her long program was pretty much what she had been delivering all season long and at Nationals. Its not fair to gamble on an inconsistent competitor and then blame the inconsistent skater when she skates how she normally skates. The USFSA IMO put Alissa in a situation she wasn't ready for. And heck maybe if they had put Zhang and Flatt ahead of her in 2009, Alissa would have switched coaches sooner.

This being said I've always thought if Alissa skated well at Nationals, she'd deserve to make teams, and I feel even stronger about that now.

 

[R.D.]

^ That, and also the fact that 2009 Worlds dictated our spots for the OLYS in 2010 made it even more intense. Bad idea to gamble on Czisny then, imo.

This season I see a somewhat different Alyssa though. She's pacing herself better, not peaking too soon, and even looks more confident than she has been in the past. She's fighting for the program and not giving up after she makes a mistake. This is translating into decent scores even when she isn't at her best. And not melting down after most of her top competitors did so well, and being the leader? Maybe she's finally starting to gain some mental toughness. (Or maybe it's just a fluke, which we'll find out at Nationals.)

 

[silverlake22]

One thing regarding peaking. Knowing a skater like Alissa, if she skates lights out at nationals like she did at the GPF, my fear is that she would have peaked too early and goes onto Worlds and does not skate/do so well there. Classic Jeremy Abbott situation the past 2 seasons. So in a way, the best scenario would probably be Alissa coming in 2nd at nationals and not skating perfect there so then she can deliver her best at Worlds.

 

[silverlake22]

NO its not Alissa's fault. It was the fault of the USFSA judges. The USFSA judges KNEW Alissa was inconsistent, and when you have an inconsistent skater, you should make said skater deliver 2 solid skates before you put them in a qualifying situation. That didn't happen at that nationals.

I feel this is right. Caroline landed 7 triples in her FS at nationals and had been skating pretty consistently all season, whereas Alissa had skated inconsistently all season, landed 3 triples in her FS at nationals and yet still finished ahead of Caroline IN THE FS PORTION, and obviously overall. It was stupid judging, Alissa should have been 3rd, Caroline and Rachael should have gone to Worlds and based on Caroline's 4th place finish at 4CC that season, she probably could have managed to finish in the top 8 and we'd have had 3 spots for the Olympics and maybe Czisny could have been on the team because she wouldn't have had the pressure of coming in as reigning champ.

 

[R.D.]

Even if we had 3 spots for Vancouver I don't think we would have had a medalist there. Assuming no X-Factor, Wagner would have had that last spot. Not sure if she would have topped Nagasu in point totals even if she was clean in both portions.

 

[Mathman]

NIt was the fault of the USFSA judges. The USFSA judges KNEW Alissa was inconsistent, and when you have an inconsistent skater, you should make said skater deliver 2 solid skates before you put them in a qualifying situation. That didn't happen at that nationals.

I disagree with that completely. The judges at Nationals -- as at any skating competition -- had no further responsibility than to judge the performances that they saw that night to the best of thier abilities.

It would be absolutely wrong for the judges ever to say, "Well, Alissa deserved a +2 GOE for her combination spin and 7.25 for her Interpretation. But she has been inconsistent in the past so I will give her just +1 GOE and 6.50."

Judge the contest before you. That is the sole duty of a figure skating judge.

 

[janetfan]

Judge the contest before you. That is the sole duty of a figure skating judge.

Yes, that seems to be pretty basic ....

Of course when in doubt we can always fall back on the trusted words of Mr Skating USA, Olympic and World champion Scott Hamilton:

"You want it for her so badly" :yes:

"she is the greatest skater to ever come out of Bowling Green"

and my favorite -

"to know this girl is to love this girl."

What more do we need to know

 

[bekalc]

I disagree with that completely. The judges at Nationals -- as at any skating competition -- had no further responsibility than to judge the performances that they saw that night to the best of thier abilities.

It would be absolutely wrong for the judges ever to say, "Well, Alissa deserved a +2 GOE for her combination spin and 7.25 for her Interpretation. But she has been inconsistent in the past so I will give her just +1 GOE and 6.50."

Judge the contest before you. That is the sole duty of a figure skating judge.

Well sure judge the competition before you but the point is that Alissa's free skate score at that nationals was VERY questionable. Here are some obvious things, she wasn't called on her lip even though, she clearly lips (of course Zhang and Flatt were called on her flutzs.

She was given a huge PCS boast, her Pcs scores were higher than they were in the short even though Alissa skated much better in the short. Alisa wasn't scoring in the 58/59s range on PCS internationally that year, so why did she get those scores at nationals. Flatt and Zhang's PCS weren't inflated at all in contrast. Once again its not right to inflate one person's scores but not the others. Sure Alissa has a PCS advantage over those two internationally back then but not nearly as much as she got at nationals.

There were some of her jumps that were questionably rotated that were given to her.

If Alissa had one through a squeakier, I think everyone would have been a bit more okay with it. But Flatt barely beat her in the free.

I.e based on Alissa's actual skate, nobody would have screamed if she was placed below Zhang or Flatt. Alissa gave the judges more than enough justification.