Which American Will be on the Podium

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Well Emily did say she was working on a 3/3 for Worlds.

Good for Emily but I don't think that will get her on the podium.

 

[Spun Silver]

she doesn't really need it any more, IMO

You mean Kimmie, I take it? Emily does need a 3/3 for podium. You think Kimmie will beat Mao's 3 Axel without one? :think:

 

[R.D.]

Yes I mean Kimmie. And I agree that Emily needs all the help she can possibly get for even a shot at the podium...and she definitely can't do it without at least two of the top contenders messing up majorly.

Is Asada landing that Axel regularly in practice? has she landed it in competition? I think Meissner is better off just sticking with the two 3-3's and focusing on doing both of them successfully. I mean, at 4CC she landed only one of them and still got 120 points (9 behind her PB). I refuse to believe anyone is immune to making any kind of errors, and this includes Mao.

The key for Kimmie is the SHORT program. This is where Mao (and Yu-na, and Miki) can put some distance between them. If she botches up the short then it's that many more points to make up in the free. But I think she'll get a medal of SOME color.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The key for Kimmie is the SHORT program. This is where Mao (and Yu-na, and Miki) can put some distance between them. If she botches up the short then it's that many more points to make up in the free. But I think she'll get a medal of SOME color.

Good point, RD. There are LP skaters and SP skaters. I think Kimmie and Evan have a hard time in the SP. I think Joannie and Emily have a hard time in the LP.

We'll soon see if they can overcome that.

Joe

 

[chuckm]

Well Emily did say she was working on a 3/3 for Worlds.

At the beginning of the season, before Campbell's, Emily said she intended to have two 3/3s in her FS: a 3F3T and a 3Z3L. Then she started popping the 3Z and 3F, both at Campbell's and Skate America, because she couldn't handle both Wilson's choreography and the more difficult technical elements. So gradually, the elaborate choreography got stripped out. But still there were no 3/3s, and at 4CC, there were even no 3Z or 3F combos.

I think Emily knows she needs a 3/3, but the risks may far exceed any potential reward. One 3/3 is not going to put Emily on the podium, but falling on it might keep her very far away from it.

To Emily, the 3/3 is out there like Kimmie's 3A. But Kimmie has at least been partly successful with the 3A, while Emily has never even tried a 3/3 in competition. Kimmie wants to try 3A again, but her coach (quite correctly) says no.

OTOH, Emily made it very plain in a 4CC interview that she is planning on going to college, presumably next year. So who knows, maybe she will try for a 3/3 at this Worlds, because it could possibly be her last.

 

[Spun Silver]

has she [Asada] landed it in competition?

Yes, in Japan this season. She's gotten 130 and 140 points for her FS. Sure, Kimmie can get on the podium but she can't beat Mao's triple A if she doesn't have one herself.

I wonder why Emily doesn't just put off college for a year. What's so urgent about college, compared with being one of the world's top figure skaters? And no, I'm NOT saying education doesn't matter so don't interpret me that way!

 

[chuckm]

I think the Hugheses strongly urge their children to stress education over everything else. I think if Emily had a string of wins on the GP circuit and a World medal, her family might be persuaded that she deserved a shot at continuing to skate with the 2010 OGM as her goal. Unlike Sarah, who started skating as a Senior at the age of 12, Emily got off to a really late start (at 16). It took 3 years of Worlds for Sarah to get to the point where she made the World podium, and Emily is only on her second try this year. But Sarah was a GPF medalist before winning that World medal, and Emily hasn't even yet made it to the Final.

Who knows, Emily may try to keep up her skating and do US Nationals next year, since she won't have to do Regionals and Sectionals, and just try for a Kwan-type schedule while in college. But the chances are if she does that, she won't make the World team next year or thereafter.

 

[satorare]

Ladies
Meissner's PCS at 4CC shows apparent desperation of the US(FSA) to grab a medal, and they have enough polical resources to push Kim aside.
Anyway, she must be extemely luck to win this time.

Men
Lysacek has a chance for a silver or bronze. Again, the US will put huge pressure on the judges to ratify his underrotated quad.

Dance & Pairs
Their country doesn't have resources to spare for them.

 

[Spun Silver]

Well, I will say this:

If Mao does land her 3A and Kimmie is hungry enough for that repeat title to attempt one herself... and if she manages to land it -

I will add that young lady to my siggie!

That would be an exciting competition. :yes:

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Ladies
Meissner's PCS at 4CC shows apparent desperation of the US(FSA) to grab a medal, and they have enough polical resources to push Kim aside.
Anyway, she must be extemely luck to win this time.

Men
Lysacek has a chance for a silver or bronze. Again, the US will put huge pressure on the judges to ratify his underrotated quad.

Dance & Pairs
Their country doesn't have resources to spare for them.

Hi Satorare - Have no problem with your opinions but please elucidate on how much power the USFS has over the Japanese and Canadian judges. There is only one US judge in the competition.

Are the Japanese and Canadian sucking up to the US? If so why?

Joe

 

[Tinymavy15]

the top ladies will be landing triple triples in the short. Mao has an amazing short with a triple flip, triple LOOP. and edge over the triple toe of kimmie. Mao will probably come out as the top in the short. that program is unbeatable. Kimmie will have to do a clean short and emily... she tends to get overmarked... but she will need a triple triple and a CLEAn skate in the long to get a medal.. i don't think that's gonna happen. She may be working on them and landing them beautifully but i REALLY doubt that we will see one by worlds. Maybe next season. maybe.

this said, if mao or the other ladies with the triple triples fail to land them.. or mess up in the long, and aren't too far ahead.. the non-triple triple landing ladies have just as good a shot as anybody.

 

[Mathman]

If Mao does land her 3A and Kimmie is hungry enough for that repeat title to attempt one herself... and if she manages to land it

I think Mao is 2 for 4 in landing the 3A in major competitions this year. Kimmie is 0 for 1.

At Skate America Mao popped her triple Axel into a single and finished fourth in the free skate.

At NHK she landed the 3A (but with -2 GOEs) and won.

At the Grand Prix final her 3A was downgraded to a double and she fell. She finished fourth in the LP.

At Japanese nationals she landed it and got huge scores for her LP.

Kimmie's lone attempt was at Eric Bompard. She did not complete the revolutions, she fell, it adversely affected the rest of the program and she finished fourth in the LP.

I think there is a pretty good chance that Mao will land it in Tokyo. If she does, it is hard to see (by the numbers) how anyone can beat her.

 

[R.D.]

...possibly. It's a huge risk to go for it and assuming Asada goes for it and lands it, and Kimmie skates after her, she (KM) might be forced to go for it as well. But it's not that she'll be lacking the firepower even if she doesn't go for it.

 

[evenstar]

I don't think Emily can make to the podium w/o a 3-3. Kimmie should not attempt the axel, it will most likely affect the program in a negative way.

 

[chuckm]

Ladies
Men
Lysacek has a chance for a silver or bronze. Again, the US will put huge pressure on the judges to ratify his underrotated quad.

The judges don't ratify quads---the 3-person technical panel, from 3 different federations, decides whether a jump is fully rotated.. If the two tech specialists don't agree on a call, the technical controller resolves the disagreement.

 

[satorare]

The US doesn't need to pressure particular judges.
ISU just can't afford to offend the biggest sponsor.
American skaters are always overmarked, especially ladies national champions.
The history tells itself.

 

[Hsuhs]

ISU just can't afford to offend the biggest sponsor.

ITA.

 

[temperboy28]

The U.S will win only a dance medal at Worlds this year.

Asada, Kim, and Ando are so powerful in jumps and good enough in style to keep Meissner off the podium.

Lysacek needs one of Joubert, Oda, and Takahashi to absolutely bomb to have a medal shot, and that is even if Lambiel doesnt show up somewhat prepared.

Belbin/Agosto have the best shot of all. The politics in dance is not as bad with the new system, their new free dance looked pretty good at Four Continents, if it improves more by Worlds they could win a medal. The French always seem to fall just short, maybe winning Europeans will change their luck, the Bulgarians
had bad Europeans which kills their momentum, the Russians are strong, the Canadians have turned in shaky performances lately with mistakes although they survived to get good results they show vurnerability.

Anyway their biggest hope is dance. Lysacek and Meissner are at the mercy of others, 1 of the big 3 favorties must self destruct for them to have a chance especialy when you factor in the overscoring the Japanese will get with it being in Japan(sorry if that offends anybody but it is the truth, look at events in Japan).

 

[slutskayafan21]

My odds are:

Evan Lysacek-

30% chance of medal
15% of top 2 medal
5% of gold

Johnny Weir-

5% chance of medal
4% chance of top 2 medal
3% of gold



Kimmie Meissner-

65% of medal
35% of top 2 medal
20% of gold

Emily Hughes-

10% of medal
5% of top 2 medal
0.5% of gold

Alissa Czisny-

4% of medal
3% of top 2 medal
2% of gold


Inoue/Baldwin-

5% of medal
0.5% of top 2 medal
0.0001% of gold


Belbin/Agosto-

35% of medal
25% of top 2 medal
10% of gold

 

[Jaana]

I think that these are the US skaters that might be on Tokyo podium

- Lysacek
- Meissner
- Belbin & Agosto

I know that Evan tends to have problems with short programme, but in US Nationals he succeeded perfectly as he very apparently really wanted to be the US champion 2007. I don´t think that his desire to become Four Continents champion was that obvious, but I´m sure that he wanted to win though. For the Worlds I have the feeling Evan really wants to be at the top of his game.