Which lady has the best competitive record over the last four years?

[Mathman]

Everyone has an opinion about who's the best skater, but who has the strongest competitive record? The results of competitions are right there in black and white, so this ought to be a matter of fact, not opinion, right?

Here are the placements in 2003 worlds, 2004 worlds, 2005 worlds, 2006 Olympics and 2006 worlds, for the top ladies who were in at least three of these contests.

Ando * 4 8 15 *
Arakawa 8 1 9 1 *
Cohen 4 2 2 2 3
Slutskaya * 9 1 3 *
Sokolova 2 10 7 14 4
Kostner 10 5 3 9 12
Kwan 1 3 4 * *
Liashenko 7 11 10 17 *
Liu * * 21 11 16
Meier 19 13 14 8 6
Poykio * 12 8 13 9
Rochette 17 8 11 5 7
Sebestyen 14 6 12 18 22
Suguri 3 7 5 4 2

Amid all this yoyo-ing up and down, off-again on-again, Sasha stands forth as a shining beacon of consistency (to guide the storm-tossed sailor home across th' uncaring sea.)

 

[SeaniBu]

That would certainly appear to be a rhetorical question. Particularly if you look at it from a golfers point of view, Sasha is constant - well constancy would be a sign of many good things from any athlete doing fairly well. I guess the complaint there would be she is particularly constant in her LP "element."

Particularly interesting that there is a coach change in there. I am not in to astrology, but she is quite the Scorpio profile.

So I am wondering now if there will be a reason for the question mark on the topic......anyone...anyone.....Bueller.....

 

[MKFSfan]

Hmmm...it's hard to judge because, yes, Sasha has been in the top 3 in every competition since her 4th place finish at 2003 Worlds. To me, that shows she has the goods, but the fact that she has finished 1st at a major competition once in that time span, well, 2 if you consider 2003 GPF...I don't know. If you take into consideration their Nationals, GP events and Euros, I think Irina's record is most impressive.

Irina has: Russian Nationals-Gold and Silver, Worlds Gold, 2 Euro Golds, Olympic Bronze, GPF Gold and Silver, plus 3 GP wins.

Sasha has: 1 National Title and 3 silvers, 1 GPF win and a silver, Worlds 2 silvers and bronze, and Olympic bronze, plus 3 GP wins.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

For what it's worth, I added up the placements of each skater and divided by the number of competitions entered. Sasha definitely has the lead.

If you add the 2002 Worlds, I think it would change.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

If you add the 2002 Worlds, I think it would change.

Right. Then it's Michelle.

 

[Mathman]

So I am wondering now if there will be a reason for the question mark on the topic......anyone...anyone.....Bueller.....

Actually, the question is more tongue-in-cheek than rhetorical.

No one on the Internet will ever agree about anything. There are already suggestions that, although Sasha is consistent (consistently second best), that doesn't make her record the best. That Irina actually has the best record when you broaden the statistical base to include Nationals, Grand Prix events and especially Europeans (which she won 7 times, eclipsing the records of Sonia Henie, Katarina Witt and Surya Bonaly). That Michelle has the best record if you figure the 4-year period as being from Olympics to Olympics (i.e., the new four-year period ought to start with 2002 Worlds and end with 2006 Olympics). Plus someone is sure to say that Olympic medals ought to be weighted more heavily that world placements.

More generally, yes, here are some numbers, now what should we do with them? Add them up and divide by 5? By the number of events actually contested?

Would Shizuka trade her record for Sasha's "superior" one?

So I think there are a lot of question marks despite Sasha's solid ledger.

 

[MKFSfan]

Of course it's also hard to compare the Euros titles since there are the top skaters are not eligible to compete. If we are talking overall records, I really believe any win at a Championship HAS to weigh more than muliple silvers and bronzes, even if a skater only has 1 or 2 wins, and that's it. If we were to do the entire Quad (Jan. 2002-March 2006), I'd pick Michelle for Olympic Bronze, 1 Gold, Silver and Bronze at Worlds, Silver at GPF and 4 National Titles. Irina and Shiz would be next, leaving Sasha in 4th. Yes, it is VERY impressive that Sasha has stood on the podium every time but twice during that span, but still, only 2 Champion titles to her name. Now that I think about it, where would Fumie fit??? She has won Nationals, what, 2 times, 4CC, a Grand Prix title, 1 Silver and 2 Bronze at Worlds. So, with the glaring miss of an Olympic medal, her record rivals or bests Sasha's.

And to answer your question: I highly doubt Shiz would trade her resume for Sasha's anymore than Tara would trade for Michelle's. I believe Michelle would have to think about if she'd trade her career for Tara's, but I would guess Sasha would in a heart beat.

 

[SeaniBu]

No one on the Internet will ever agree about anything.

I totally disagree

I guess it does come down to how you view the meaning of best competitive record. I would look at that as a consistency issue regarding what placements went on your record.

Accomplishments on the other hand would be a different story - to me anyway. If it were to say best accomplishments on their record, Irina would fit that I feel.

Accomplishment by itself would be way subject to opinion.

Even just consistency by it's self would lead me to say Fumie, but you take placements / record into consideration and I think Sasha.

Best record by itself could also be viewed as add them up (not attending would give you a 20 or more) and see who has the smallest score - indicating the highest placements. Also subject to interpretation would be having to say the most events and best placements as well. that just would not really be a definitive way to try and accomplish the task.

The thing that perplexes me the most here is a thread that was started by a "person of the numbers" would consider there being any other answer that was not defined by numbers. I guess that threw me off.

Here is my definition of the thread in my head.
Four years = only AND all of what has happened in 4 years is eligible.
Record = scores by judgment / placement over the specific time.
Best Competitive = highest placement in all competitions over the time period. Not competing would mean you get the "number assigned" that is larger than the number of participants in the competitions that are in consideration.

That is just my take on what this was, and from that view I believe Sasha takes that based on the chart that MM supplied.

Now I am thinking that there would be more placements over that time frame anyway. ?? wouldn't there?

 

[Mathman]

Well, the trouble with putting too much emphasis on consistency is that you could be consistently bad, and that wouldn't be anything to brag about.

Now I am thinking that there would be more placements over that time frame anyway. ?? wouldn't there?

Yes, because I only included people who had competed in at least three of the five chosen events. Viktoria Volchkova, for instance, was 5th in 2003, 15th in 2004, but did not compete in the 2005 and 2006 events because of injuries.

I believe Michelle would have to think about if she'd trade her career for Tara's, but I would guess Sasha would in a heart beat.

I kind of hope not. I think, at the end of the day, the Popeye syndrome comes to the fore: "I yam what I yam."

Or do I mean, the "My Way" POV: "Regrets? I've had a few...but then again, too few to mention."

I hope these skaters can look back on their careers with pride and satisfaction at their accomplishments, and with gratitude about the opportunities that the sport has afforded them. If other performers -- their erstwhile competitors -- accomplished something, too, hey, good for them.

 

[R.D.]

The placements are consistent. The performances that she put out to earn those placements, however, contained a fall or some kind of MAJOR mistake. This leads some to the thought that she could do better. Well, let me make that most.

 

[SeaniBu]

I usually don't like doing this, but a comparison of Tiger Woods comes to mind. The guy is always making some kind of big mistake during a match, yet still considered one of the best with a top "record."

Now I understand why the "whole list" of wasn't in, I was just writing as I thought there. Thanks MM.

Now that brings the question, do you take into consideration a "record" if the skater didn't make it for whatever reason? Injury in my mind could be considered in deducting how well a skater did in a period of time. JAT

... contained a fall or some kind of MAJOR mistake.

Isn't a mistake the same thing as a circumstance that happens due to an action? That appears to be the same thing as and injury or decision to not do or do. JA'NT. I think that should also be put in the equation. After all a theory is based on what really happened isn't it? Other wise it would be a pure bias fiction? So Failing to show is the same as not performing to fullest capabilities. ?

 

[Jaana]

Everyone has an opinion about who's the best skater, but who has the strongest competitive record?

To me that is definetely the same thing, LOL. One cannot be best skater without wins/ good placements. Certainly the best skater is the one who in a specific periode of time has the strongest competitive record.

Good, that a whole Olympiade including 4 World competitions was chosen for this, that was well thought out, Mathman. It seems - unless I missed somebody - that the best ones are:

1. Cohen
2. Kwan
3. Slutskaya
4. Arakawa

I wonder if the result would have been a bit different, if there would have been scores for a win, silver and bronze and of course the special scores for an Olympic win, silver and bronze.

 

[SeaniBu]

Arakawa, past 4 years?

Kwan, same dif.

 

[anything_for_skating]

I think it's important to say that Ira broke ISU record winning her 7th European title.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think it's important to say that Ira broke ISU record winning her 7th European title.

With no North Americans or Asians, she did just fine.

 

[Mathman]

Arakawa, past 4 years?

Kwan, same dif.

That's really the point I am getting at. To me, "the best" is in the mind of the beholder. I think Yukina Ota is a better skater than most of the ladies on this list, but she never won anything at all.

I think someone could look at these numbers and say, obviously Arakawa has the best record -- she peaked at the right time and won the Big Lollapalooza. Everything else is "who cares?".

Someone could say about Kwan, she put up some OK numbers at the beginning, but faded fast and was out of the show in 2006. The "best record" prize should go to someone who got better and better, not worse and worse.

 

[Mathman]

The placements are consistent. The performances that she put out to earn those placements, however, contained a fall or some kind of MAJOR mistake. This leads some to the thought that she could do better. Well, let me make that most.

Yes, every time out she gave an excellent performance marred by one or two glaring misyakes (rather like this sentence). Every time out. That's consistency!

Could she do better? To me, the answer is, "obviously not." If she could have skated error free she would have. It's not like she fell down on purpose just to give the skating forums something to talk about.

I, of course, have an "edit" button. The skaters don't.

 

[Mathman]

OK, I worked up some totals. Figures don't lie, but liars figure, LOL.

I agree with Sean that a no-show has to be severely penalized in any account of the "best competitive record." I have never lost a set at Wimbledon, but I do not therefore consider myself to be the world's greatest tennis player (Go Venus!).

On the other hand, we don't want to penalize, say, Shizuka and Irina so much for skipping the post-Olympic worlds that they are completely taken out of the running. (BTW, there is a substantial literature in statistical journals about various strategies for compensating for missing data.)

So here is how I weighted the placements: gold = 1, silver = 2, bronze = 3, 4th-6th = 4, 7th-12th = 5, below 12th = 6, no score = 6. I also weighted the Olympics twice as heavily as the results from each world championship.

Here's how it turned out.

Cohen 15
Arakawa 19
Suguri 22
Kwan 26
Kostner 27
Slutskaya 28
Sokolova 28
Rochette 29
Meier 32
Ando 33
Sebestyen 33
Liashenko 33
Poykio 33
Liu 34

 

[slutskayafan21]

Possably Cohen since she has medaled in 4 major events(World and Olympics)even though she did not deserve an Olympic medal of any color this year, the judges still gave her the silver gift, so it still exists. Combine that with strong GP performances in both 02-03 and 03-04, and strong GP finals in 03 and 04 I would have to go with her. Slutskaya missed almost the whole season of 03-04, and had a so-so 02-03 aside from also missing Worlds. Arakawa has not consistent enough success outside her two big wins to make her the best of the quadrennial.

 

[Mathman]

On the other hand...

Maybe we should go with the "Olympic cycle" rather than with "4 seasons." This would mean worlds 2002-2005 and 2006 Olympics, saving 2006 worlds for the next go-round. In that case we have

Cohen 16
Arakawa 19
Kwan 22
Slutskaya 23
Suguri 23
Kostner 27
Sokolova 30
Rochette 30
Liashenko 31
Sebestyen 32
Meier 32
Ando 33
Poykio 33
Volchkova 33

This ranking is also more satisfactory to the intuition, IMHO.

Trivia question: Who won the most Olympic gold medals?

Answer: The emperor Nero, who won more than 50 in all manner of races, plus singing and playing the lute. In the 67 AD Olympics alone he won gold medals in six different races, even though he did not finish any of them.

In the chariot race he fell out of his chariot and had to be carried off the field. The silver and bronze medalists could just barely stop in time to avoid getting ahead of him and being executed on the spot.