Who will make it to the JGP final?

[SnowWhite]

After Croatia, the picture in dance becomes a lot clearer. Carreira/Ponomarenko had already qualified with two wins, and now both Lajoie/Lagha and Shevchenko/Eremenko have a gold and a silver, so they're in as well. That leaves three spots and the teams in contention are:

Konkina/Yakushev — 24
Polishchuk/Vakhnov — 15 (Italy)
Skoptcova/Aleshin — 13 (Poland)
Ushakova/Nekrasov — 11 (Italy)
Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov — 11 (Poland)
Green/Green — 11 (Poland)

Shpilevaya/Smirnov would have had a good chance with their silver, but they no longer have a second event (he seems to be injured).

I can't see Polishchuk/Vakhnov lower than 2nd in Italy, so they should be in. I'd say Skoptcova/Aleshin are in a good position - they're the favourites in Poland and even if they slip to silver, that should be enough as long as Polishchuk/Vakhnov win in Italy. If those two teams are in that leaves one more spot, which the other four teams on my list would be fighting for.

 

[skatenewbie]

update for ladies

Alexandra Trusova 30p (Q)
Anastasia Tarakanova 26p
Mako Yamashita 24p

Other contender
Daria Panenkova 15p
Sofia Samodurova 15p
Lim Eunsoo 13p
Rika Kihira 13p
Anastasiia Guliakova 13p

yet to skate
Alena Kostornaya

it's hard to predict tbh, but think in the end Tarakanova will qualified.

Poland: Lim Eunsoo, Panenkova and Kostornaya, Emmy Ma. idk the japanese girls wich is Rino Kasakake and Akari Matsubara. If Kostornaya wins here with nice score then she will go to Italy with Samodurova and i believe Guliakova wont have her 2nd assignment which is a shame if that happens. i dont know how Eteru girls will perform esp in FS. now i think Emmy Ma have chance for podium if she clean and Eteri girls/Eunsoo bomb like tonight.
Italy: Kihira, Samodurova, Guliakova (uncertain), Nana Araki. all these girls will be pressured since they know who already qualified for JGPF and how many points they need to qualify so that can affect their skate. Kihira has the biggest chance to win, but there are probability that Guliakova (if she get 2nd assignment) will try 3A. Araki chance for gold is not high but if others bomb who knows, also Samodurova is she's clean like today can make for gold if Kihira falls.

 

[SnowWhite]

For the men, Alexei Krasnozhon has qualified with two wins. The other top guys who've had two events are:

Mitsuki Sumoto — 24
Makar Ignatov — 24
Joseph Phan — 22
Roman Savosin — 22

Then there are the ones who haven't had their second event yet:

Alexey Erokhov — 15 (Poland)
Camden Pulkinen — 15 (Poland)
Alexander Torgashev — 13 (Italy)
Luc Economides — 13 (Poland)
Igor Efimchuk — 11 (Poland)
Tomoki Hiwatashi — 11 (Italy)
Egor Murashov — 11 (Italy)


Remaining events
JGP Poland: Erokhov, Pulkinen, Economides, Efimchuk
JGP Italy: Torgashev, Hiwatashi, Murashov

 

[invisiblespiral]

Is it possible for Japan to move one of Araki and Kihira to Poland? :scratch:

 

[puremagic]

Is it possible for Japan to move one of Araki and Kihira to Poland? :scratch:

Yes. They're both marked as substitutes there.

 

[The Finn]

it's hard to predict tbh, but think in the end Tarakanova will qualified.

She has already qualified.

 

[The Finn]

Pairs

Have made it for sure
Apollinariia PANFILOVA / Dmitry RYLOV 26p
Aleksandra BOIKOVA / Dmitrii KOZLOVSKII 24p

Main contenders
Daria PAVLIUCHENKO / Denis KHODYKIN 15p - 4th placement at last event will be good enough for sure
Polina KOSTIUKOVICH / Dmitrii IALIN 15p - 4th placement will do
Yumeng GAO / Zhong XIE 13p - 3rd placement will do
Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Dmitry SOPOT 13p - 3rd placement will do

Still have a chance
Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR 9p - Only victory will do.

Remaining event
JGP Poland: Pavliuchenko/Khodykin, Poluianova/Sopot, Kostiukovich/Ialin, Alexandrovskaya/Windsor, Gao/Xie

Very interesting last event coming up. There will be 5 good pairs fighting over four remaining spots.

 

[The Finn]

Ice dancing

Have made it for sure
Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO 30p
Marjorie LAJOIE / Zachary LAGHA 28p
Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO 28p

Main contenders
Ksenia KONKINA / Grigory YAKUSHEV 24p
Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV 15p - 3rd placement would be good enough for sure.
Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN 13p - 2nd placement will do.
Arina USHAKOVA / Maxim NEKRASOV 11p - Only victory will do.
Elizaveta KHUDAIBERDIEVA / Nikita NAZAROV 11p - Only victory will do.

Still have a chance
(Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV 13p. I guess they are pretty much out for sure now.)

Remaining events
JGP Poland: Skoptcova/Aleshin, Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov,
JGP Italy: Polishchuk/Vakhnov, Ushakova/Nekrasov

One would think that P/V and S/A will make it for sure. I think U/N has a better chance to claim the last spot than K/Y or K/N but we will have to wait and see how it goes.

 

[The Finn]

Men

Have made it for sure
Alexei KRASNOZHON 30p

Main contenders
Mitsuki SUMOTO 24p
Makar IGNATOV 24p
Alexey EROKHOV 15p - 3rd placement at the 2nd event will be good enough for sure
Camden PULKINEN 15p - 3rd placement will do
Andrew TORGASHEV 13p - 2nd placement will do
Luc ECONOMIDES 13p - 2nd placement will do

Still have a chance
Igor EFIMCHUK 11p - Only victory will do
Tomoki HIWATASHI 11p - Only victory will do
Egor MURASHOV 11p - Only victory will do
Egor RUKHIN 11p - Only victory will do

Haven't skated yet
Matteo RIZZO - 2nd and 2nd would do.

Remaining events
JGP Poland: Erokhov, Pulkkinen, Rizzo, Economides, Efimchuk
JGP Italy: Torgashev, Rizzo, Murashov, Hiwatashi, (Rukhin)

One would think that Erokhov will make it for sure. Torgashev should have a good chance to qualify also.

 

[The Finn]

Ladies

Have made it for sure
Alexandra TRUSOVA 30p
Anastasia TARAKANOVA 26p

Main contenders
Sofia SAMODUROVA 15p - 3rd placement at the 2nd event will be good enough for sure
Daria PANENKOVA 15p - 3rd placement will do
Eunsoo LIM 13p - Usually 2nd and 2nd would do but this season it might not, at least not for multiple skaters with 2nd and 2nd.
Nana ARAKI 13p - Same as above
Anastasiia GULIAKOVA 13p - Same as above
Rika KIHIRA 13p - Same as above

Still have a chance
Mako YAMASHITA 24p - She has only extremely slim chance
Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA 11p - Only victory would do. She doesn't have a 2nd event at the moment but in theory Russian Fed could still decide not to give Kostornaya a JGP event.

Haven't skated yet
Alena KOSTORNAIA - If Russian Fed does decide to give her an JGP event then 2nd and 2nd might do if her 1st event score would be above what Russian Fed thinks Guliakova can score now. It could be something close to a 190 points.

Remaining events
JGP Poland: Panenkova, Kostornaya/Konstantinova, Eunsoo Lim
JGP Italy: Samodurova, Guliakova/Kostornaya, Kihira, Araki

One would think that Dasha and Sofia will make it to the final after winning their 1st event. That would leave two spots for Lim, Kihira, Araki and two Russian ladies to fight over.

I kind of saw Kostornaya as a backup plan in case Samodurova and/or Konstantinova doesn't deliver but now that Sofia won her event and also Stasya did well at her event then Russian Fed might decide not give Kostornaya JGP event after all. Especially since they also have Guliakova who did well at her event, so, basically there is no need nor room for Kostornaya really.

We will have wait and see if Japanese Fed will do some very late changes but at the moment both Kihira and Araki are assigned to JGP Italy which will be a very high quality event.

 

[skatenewbie]

Update for Pairs who already qulaiifed! so we have

Daria PAVLIUCHENKO / Denis KHODYKIN 28p
Apollinariia PANFILOVA / Dmitry RYLOV 26p
Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR 24p
Aleksandra BOIKOVA / Dmitrii KOZLOVSKII 24p
Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Dmitry SOPOT 24p
Yumeng GAO / Zhong XIE 22p

4 russians, 1 aussie and 1 china pairs have made it to JGPF! sad for K/I though they could have qualified but today is not their day

 

[Chemistry66]

More details on Pairs:

JGPF qualifiers:

1) Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (RUS) - 28 (15 [BLR] + 13 [POL])
2) Panfilova/Rylov (RUS) - 26 (15 [LAT] + 11 [BLR])
3) Alexandrovskaya/Windsor - 24 (15 [POL] + 9 [LAT])
4) Poluianova/Sopot (RUS) - 24 (13 [BLR] + 11 [POL], 321.32)
5) Boikova/Kozlovskii (RUS) - 24 (13 [LAT] + 11 [CRO], 317.14)
6) Gao/Xie (CHN) - 22 (13 [CRO] + 9 [POL])
__________________________________________________ ______________
R1) Kostiukovich/Ialin (RUS) - 20 (15 [CRO] + 5 [POL])
R2) Walsh/Michaud (CAN) - 20 (11 [LAT] + 9 [CRO])
R3) Lochley/Prochnow (USA) - 14 (7 [LAT] + 7 [CRO], 293.26 over Lu/Mitrofanov's 282.78)

 

[SnowWhite]

For the ladies, we now have:

1. Alexandra Trusova — 30
2. Daria Panenkova — 28
3. Anastasia Tarakanova — 26

4. Mako Yamashita — 24
5. Alena Kostornaya — 15 (Italy)
6. Sofia Samodurova — 15 (Italy)
7. Rika Kihara — 13 (Italy)
8. Nana Akari — 13 (Italy)

The top 3 are in for sure, and Sofia and Alena only need 3rd to be guaranteed their spots. Even 4th would be enough for one of them, as long as Rika and Nana aren't both top two.

For example, if the placings in Italy are Rika, Alena, Nana, Sofia, then both Nana (13+11) and Sofia (15+9) would have 24 points, but Sofia's 1st place would put her ahead.

I think it's almost certainly between Rika, Nana and Mako for the last spot.

 

[Princessroja]

More details on Pairs:

JGPF qualifiers:

1) Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (RUS) - 28 (15 [BLR] + 13 [POL])
2) Panfilova/Rylov (RUS) - 26 (15 [LAT] + 11 [BLR])
3) Alexandrovskaya/Windsor - 24 (15 [POL] + 9 [LAT])
4) Poluianova/Sopot (RUS) - 24 (13 [BLR] + 11 [POL], 321.32)
5) Boikova/Kozlovskii (RUS) - 24 (13 [LAT] + 11 [CRO], 317.14)
6) Gao/Xie (CHN) - 22 (13 [CRO] + 9 [POL])
__________________________________________________ ______________
R1) Kostiukovich/Ialin (RUS) - 20 (15 [CRO] + 5 [POL])
R2) Walsh/Michaud (CAN) - 20 (11 [LAT] + 9 [CRO])
R3) Lochley/Prochnow (USA) - 14 (7 [LAT] + 7 [CRO], 293.26 over Lu/Mitrofanov's 282.78)

Wow, good for Lochley/Prochnow and Lu/Mitrofanov! An American junior pairs team in the mix, even as third alternate, is a good step. Both teams should be proud.

 

[The Finn]

For the ladies, we now have:

1. Alexandra Trusova — 30
2. Daria Panenkova — 28
3. Anastasia Tarakanova — 26

4. Mako Yamashita — 24
5. Alena Kostornaya — 15 (Italy)
6. Sofia Samodurova — 15 (Italy)
7. Rika Kihara — 13 (Italy)
8. Nana Akari — 13 (Italy)

The top 3 are in for sure, and Sofia and Alena only need 3rd to be guaranteed their spots. Even 4th would be enough for one of them, as long as Rika and Nana aren't both top two.

For example, if the placings in Italy are Rika, Alena, Nana, Sofia, then both Nana (13+11) and Sofia (15+9) would have 24 points, but Sofia's 1st place would put her ahead.

I think it's almost certainly between Rika, Nana and Mako for the last spot.

Mako's chances are really really slim because a 3rd placement for Rika or Nana would most likely place one of them above Mako. Nana would need to be at least 3rd with a score of 173.80 points. Rika would need to be at least 3rd with a score of 176.34 points.

That been said one should note that Young You and Ye Lim Kim will be skating in Italy also. They have no chance at making it to the final but if the bigger names doesn't deliver then they should watch out for these two because they are capable to score decent scores also and potentially messing things up for the bigger names.

 

[SnowWhite]

Mako's chances are really really slim because a 3rd placement for Rika or Nana would most likely place one of them above Mako. Nana would need to be at least 3rd with a score of 173.80 points. Rika would need to be at least 3rd with a score of 176.34 points.

That been said one should note that Young You and Ye Lim Kim will be skating in Italy also. They have no chance at making it to the final but if the bigger names doesn't deliver then they should watch out for these two because they are capable to score decent scores also and potentially messing things up for the bigger names.

Yeah, the Koreans aren't likely to affect Alena and Sofia chances, since they can get away with lower placements and still qualify, but they could affect the Japanese girls chances.

 

[skatenewbie]

Men JGPF

in for sure
Alexei Krasnozhon 30p
Alexey Erokhov 30p
Camden Pulkinen 28p

Main contender
Andrew Torgashev 13p
Mitsuki Sumoto 24p
Makar Ignatov 24p
Tomoki Hiwatashi 11p
Egor Rukhin 11p

Torgashev only need 2nd place, if he wins then Mitsuki and Makar probably in as well, unless Tomoki/Egor scored bigger than Makar which is quite high. Whoever between the 3 that wins in Italy will in.

 

[Chemistry66]

Men's chances now:

(Above the line are in for sure)

1) Alexey Erokohv (RUS) - 30, 1st + 1st, 454.68
2) Alexei Krasnozhon (USA) - 30, 1st + 1st, 434.85
3) Camden Pulkinen (USA) - 28, 1st + 2nd
4) Mitsuki Sumoto (JPN) - 24, 1st + 4th
_________________________________________
5) Makar Ignatov (RUS) - 24, 2nd + 3rd
6) Joseph Phan (CAN) - 22, 2nd + 4th, 404.74
7) Luc Economides (FRA) - 22, 2nd + 4th, 386.55
8) Roman Savosin (RUS) - 22, 2nd + 4th, 383.74

Still to go in Italy:
Andrew Torgashev (USA) - 13, 2nd, 212.71
Tomoki Hiwatashi (USA) - 11, 3rd, 189.89
Igor Murashov (RUS) - 11, 3rd, 186.76

Torgashev is in with a 1st or 2nd. With a 3rd, he needs to beat Ignatov on the score tiebreaker and one of Hiwatashi/Murashov to get a low enough score OR if below Ignatov's total both others must get below Ignatov. With a 4th, he'd need to win the score tiebreaker over Phan AND hope both Hiwatashi/Murashov to get no better than bronze. 5th or lower, he's out.

Hiwatashi is in with a 1st. With a 2nd, he's in if he beats Ignatov on the score tiebreaker and Torgashev wins or gets bronze without Murashov winning; if he beats Ignatov on the tiebreaker and Murashov wins, he's in only if Torgashev gets bronze with a low enough score or lower than bronze. With a 3rd, he's out because he loses the placement tiebreaker to Phan.

Murashov is in with a 1st. The other situations mirror Hiwatashi's possibilities exactly, just with slightly different score tiebreaker totals needed.

Likely final is Erokhov, Krasnozhon, Pulkinen, Sumoto, and then Torgashev and one of Ignatov or Hiwatashi (since Hiwatashi has higher PB than Ignatov but Ignatov has the higher scores this season)

(ETA to put Sumoto in as mentioned below by another poster, because his gold ensures he'll win any tiebreakers and only two of Torgashev/Hiwatashi/Murashov could beat him by total placement points anyway)

(ETA again: Also, if Russia decides to replace Samoilov with Rukhin, Rukhin's qualification path is the same as Hiwatashi or Murashov.)

 

[Nafetaks]

It's impossible that all three (Torgashev, Hiwatashi, Murashov) can overtake Mitsuki Sumoto as he has the advantage of having won a gold medal unlike the others, so he must be qualified, too.

 

[Chemistry66]

It's impossible that all three (Torgashev, Hiwatashi, Murashov) can overtake Mitsuki Sumoto as he has the advantage of having won a gold medal unlike the others, so he must be qualified, too.

True.