Who will make it to the JGP final?

[The Finn]

Men JGPF

in for sure
Alexei Krasnozhon 30p
Alexey Erokhov 30p
Camden Pulkinen 28p

Main contender
Andrew Torgashev 13p
Mitsuki Sumoto 24p
Makar Ignatov 24p
Tomoki Hiwatashi 11p
Egor Rukhin 11p

Torgashev only need 2nd place, if he wins then Mitsuki and Makar probably in as well, unless Tomoki/Egor scored bigger than Makar which is quite high. Whoever between the 3 that wins in Italy will in.

Despite the fact that Russian Fed named Samoilov as one of their skater to Italy weeks ago I allways thought they would replace him with Rukhin because Rukhin medaled at his 1st event but since Rukhin still hasn't been assigned to JGP Italy I guess Samoilov will skate there. Samoilov has shown some promise in the past and he can score big when his is on but he is very unstable skater.

 

[skatenewbie]

Despite the fact that Russian Fed named Samoilov as one of their skater to Italy weeks ago I allways thought they would replace him with Rukhin because Rukhin medaled at his 1st event but since Rukhin still hasn't been assigned to JGP Italy I guess Samoilov will skate there. Samoilov has shown some promise in the past and he can score big when his is on but he is very unstable skater.

yeah i know Rukhin is not assigned yet, i mean Murashov who have 11 points too

 

[corynna]

yeah i know Rukhin is not assigned yet, i mean Murashov who have 11 points too

I really don't understant that decision. All other bronze medalists (Murashov and Efimchuk) were given a second assignment. And Samoilov doesn't have any chance to reach the final, as he didn't have another assignment. Unless Rukhin is injured, this seems to be an unfair decision.

 

[skatenewbie]

I really don't understant that decision. All other bronze medalists (Murashov and Efimchuk) were given a second assignment. And Samoilov doesn't have any chance to reach the final, as he didn't have another assignment. Unless Rukhin is injured, this seems to be an unfair decision.

maybe indeed he's injured or because he have the lowest score among other skaters, or maybe becuase he's the youngest so they think he still have many years to come

 

[Chemistry66]

Ice Dance chances now:

(Above the line are in for sure)

1) Carreira/Ponomarenko (USA) - 30, 1st + 1st
2) Skoptcova/Aleshin (RUS) - 28, 1st + 2nd, 294.42
3) Lajoie/Lagha (CAN) - 28, 1st + 2nd, 289.22
4) Shevchenko/Eremenko - 28, 1st + 2nd, 285.96
__________________________________________
5) Konkina/Yakushev - 24, 2nd + 3rd, 283.57
6) Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov - 24, 2nd + 3rd, 265.65
7) Green/Green - 22, 3rd + 3rd

Still to skate in Italy who could make the final:

Polishchuk/Vahknov (RUS) - 15, 1st, 145.86
Ushakova/Nekrasov (RUS) - 11, 3rd, 142.94

(A few more teams could be alternates IF and only IF they won)

Polishchuk/Vakhnov are in if they medal or get 4th (since they win the placement tiebreaker because of their gold in their first event). If they get 5th, they're out/likely an alternate.
Ushakova/Nekrasov are in for sure with a 1st. If they're 2nd they're in IF they get a total higher than Konkina/Yakushev (regardless of Polishchuk/Vakhnov), OR IF they get at least higher than Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov (but not higher than Konkina/Yakushev) and something happens to Polishchuk/Vakhnov. 2nd with a lower total than Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov and they're out/alternates. 3rd and they're out/alternates.

Final will most likely be Carreira/Ponomarenko, Skoptcova/Aleshin, Lajoie/Lagha, Shevchenko/Eremenko, and then Polishchuk/Vakhnov + one of Konkina/Yakushev and Ushakova/Nekrasov who have very similar scores this season.

Too bad for Shpilevaya/Smirnov who are dealing with injury, and Corentin/Rahier who had to withdraw from their second JGP after the SD, who had chance of qualifying.

 

[Lana05]

It's Plushenko who asked for a spot for Samoilov (his coach) despite that Samoilov wasn't at test skates. It could be unfair, but RusFed agreeded

 

[nikros]

It's Plushenko who asked for a spot for Samoilov (his coach) despite that Samoilov wasn't at test skates. It could be unfair, but RusFed agreeded

Samoilov won the Moscow competition in September, so Fed put him in JGP instead of Ruhin, as well as Kostornaya (after winning this competition) kicked out Guliakova.

 

[hanca]

I really don't understant that decision. All other bronze medalists (Murashov and Efimchuk) were given a second assignment. And Samoilov doesn't have any chance to reach the final, as he didn't have another assignment. Unless Rukhin is injured, this seems to be an unfair decision.

If Guliakova with silver medal and Konstantinova with bronze medal didn’t get their second assignment, why would Rukhin with bronze medal has to get his second assignment? The federation considered whether he has a chance to get to JGPF and decided that he doesn’t have a chance, so they decided to give it to someone else. The federation has to balance giving assignments to as many skaters to give them all opportunities, with the opportunity to let them qualify to JGPF. Those are two goals that can be contradictory, e.g. should they try to give opportunity to most juniors but they will all have just one event, or should they try to give everyone two but only six skaters will have the opportunity- and they may miss someone who may have been ready for breakthrough. So they try to balance it somewhere in the middle, like with ladies. Some of them will get only one event, some who do really well will get two events. Rukhin’s bronze medal was not very impressive for them, possibly the score may have been such that the chance of another medal was not huge, and giving a new skater his chance could possibly uncover another boy’s potential and give him season best in an international competition.

 

[corynna]

If Guliakova with silver medal and Konstantinova with bronze medal didn’t get their second assignment, why would Rukhin with bronze medal has to get his second assignment? The federation considered whether he has a chance to get to JGPF and decided that he doesn’t have a chance, so they decided to give it to someone else. The federation has to balance giving assignments to as many skaters to give them all opportunities, with the opportunity to let them qualify to JGPF. Those are two goals that can be contradictory, e.g. should they try to give opportunity to most juniors but they will all have just one event, or should they try to give everyone two but only six skaters will have the opportunity- and they may miss someone who may have been ready for breakthrough. So they try to balance it somewhere in the middle, like with ladies. Some of them will get only one event, some who do really well will get two events. Rukhin’s bronze medal was not very impressive for them, possibly the score may have been such that the chance of another medal was not huge, and giving a new skater his chance could possibly uncover another boy’s potential and give him season best in an international competition.

I could understand that if they have done like they did with Alena: put Samoilov in Poland first. And then if he did really well they could have given him a second assignment in Italy. That would have been a good strategy. I don't think Rukhin had any chance for the final, but Samoilov doesn't have either, as he will only have one assignment.
I would have put Erokhov and Samoilov in Poland and then in Italy Efimchuk and whoever had the highest scores between Samoilov, Murashov and Rukhin.

 

[starla16]

I could understand that if they have done like they did with Alena: put Samoilov in Poland first. And then if he did really well they could have given him a second assignment in Italy. That would have been a good strategy. I don't think Rukhin had any chance for the final, but Samoilov doesn't have either, as he will only have one assignment.
I would have put Erokhov and Samoilov in Poland and then in Italy Efimchuk and whoever had the highest scores between Samoilov, Murashov and Rukhin.

you guys aren't thinking smart like the Federations, the goal is to maximize many entries for the JGPF. Samoilov is to get gold in Italy and disrupt another potential spoiler other than him, if he wins gold, it guarantees Ignatov into the finals. Rukhin is doesn't have a triple axel, the goal is to prevent a spoiler or from Torgashev winning.

 

[skatenewbie]

you guys aren't thinking smart like the Federations, the goal is to maximize many entries for the JGPF. Samoilov is to get gold in Italy and disrupt another potential spoiler other than him, if he wins gold, it guarantees Ignatov into the finals. Rukhin is doesn't have a triple axel, the goal is to prevent a spoiler or from Torgashev winning.

Actually even if Torgashev winning, Igantov chance to qualified still big. Other than Torgashev the contenders is only Tomoki Hiwatashi and Egor Murashov, both with 11p. If one of them gets 2nd (Torgashev win) they only have 24p like Ignatov, but Ignatov have 200 something score which is much higher than Hiwatashi and Murashov who scored in 180~190 range in their 1st competition and he will still win the tie breaker.

 

[starla16]

Actually even if Torgashev winning, Igantov chance to qualified still big. Other than Torgashev the contenders is only Tomoki Hiwatashi and Egor Murashov, both with 11p. If one of them gets 2nd (Torgashev win) they only have 24p like Ignatov, but Ignatov have 200 something score which is much higher than Hiwatashi and Murashov who scored in 180~190 range in their 1st competition and he will still win the tie breaker.

in theory, even Hiwatashi can win in Italy as he has triple axels, so to prevent that, I understand what the federation is thinking, remove Rukhin who has no triple axels and put in Samoliov as a buffer for spoiler winners. A Samoilov win or Torgashev with gold and Samoilov or Murashov silver will guarantee Ignatov in JGPF.

If no spoilers in this event, it will be 3 americans, 2 russians and 1 japanese.

 

[madison]

in theory, even Hiwatashi can win in Italy as he has triple axels, so to prevent that, I understand what the federation is thinking, remove Rukhin who has no triple axels and put in Samoliov as a buffer for spoiler winners. A Samoilov win or Torgashev with gold and Samoilov or Murashov silver will guarantee Ignatov in JGPF.

If no spoilers in this event, it will be 3 americans, 2 russians and 1 japanese.

Yeees, I want Makar in the final

 

[starla16]

Yeees, I want Makar in the final

In order for that to happen, Hiwatashi must not win meaning Samoilov must do his job as the buffer. LOL

 

[Chemistry66]

In order for that to happen, Hiwatashi must not win meaning Samoilov must do his job as the buffer. LOL

Ignatov can be in the final even if Hiwatashi wins. Torgashev was in the same situation last year - silver at his first JGP, and then competed in the last JGP of the season. He had issues and got 4th, missing the final. So while he has the best chance to qualify, it's not certain at all.

If Hiwatashi wins and Torgashev has a bad day, it could come down to Murashov's placement/score (which favors Ignatov)

 

[Yatagarasu]

Samoilov won the Moscow competition in September, so Fed put him in JGP instead of Ruhin, as well as Kostornaya (after winning this competition) kicked out Guliakova.

Since I'm petty, I then hope Samoilov bombs. The place should have gone to Rukhin.

It's a completely different situation to Gulyakova who though I feel incredibly sorry for, wasn't treated differently than other girls. Second assignment went to those who scored the best, and it just so happens that in the girls field, you had to place 1st. It's heart-breaking for her but equal playing field overall. This Rukhin situation is anything but though because they had Poland to test Samoilov if they wanted to, like they did with Kostornaya.

 

[el henry]

Of course I love my true performer, Andrew T.

And I would love to see Tomoki and Rohene’s programs in the JGPF too:luv17:

What needs to happen in Italy for that to happen?:scratch3:

 

[Chemistry66]

Of course I love my true performer, Andrew T.

And I would love to see Tomoki and Rohene’s programs in the JGPF too:luv17:

What needs to happen in Italy for that to happen?:scratch3:

Check my post (#58) on the previous page. I outlined all the situations for Andrew and Tomoki to qualify.

 

[el henry]

Check my post (#58) on the previous page. I outlined all the situations for Andrew and Tomoki to qualify.

Got it, thx all that math was making my head spin and I missed the important posts

 

[skatenewbie]

in theory, even Hiwatashi can win in Italy as he has triple axels, so to prevent that, I understand what the federation is thinking, remove Rukhin who has no triple axels and put in Samoliov as a buffer for spoiler winners. A Samoilov win or Torgashev with gold and Samoilov or Murashov silver will guarantee Ignatov in JGPF.

If no spoilers in this event, it will be 3 americans, 2 russians and 1 japanese.

from what i know he haven't got his 3A back? he did not attempt it at all in his first JGP, idk though