- Joined
- Jan 13, 2004
Alexandra Pauline Cohen is "Sasha Cohen". I believe that Gezando is showing his support for Sasha earning a medal of some color by his posting an element of Sasha's name next to the three medal names.
Worlds Predictions
- Thread starter doubleaxelcm
- Start date
- Joined
- Dec 8, 2004
One of the most interesting stories from last year's worlds was the strong showing of the western European men - Joubert 2nd, Lindemann 3rd, Lambiel 4th. Although each has a very different style on the ice, much of their success was due to the fact that all three were able to incorporate quads into programs that included good skating skills across the board (as opposed to some of the Asian men with excellent jumps but poor presentation and North American men with great artistry but inconsistent/non-existant quads).
Since worlds, unfortunately, all three have struggled and they seem to be a question mark for this year. Joubert has had an unsuccessful Grand Prix and has been criticized for skating like Yagudin. Likewise, Lindemann had a poor international showing earlier in the season, and many felt his bronze medal was the result of a home court advantage in Dortmund. Lambiel missed the Grand Prix due to injury and won the Swiss title this year with a rough performance.
The question for this year's worlds is whether the western Europeans will return to form or whether new faces will occupy the podium. Plushenko is the closest thing to a lock for gold that there is in skating right now, but the other 2 spots are less certain. Judging by the year's performances so far, Sandhu, Weir and Buttle have a good chance of standing out this year under the new judging system. Li and others will likely have to wait and see if the system changes after this year to give more credit to the quad.
The European Championships will be a good indicator of what to expect at worlds. If there are several outstanding performances like there were last year, it could indicate a possible repeat, but if Plushenko dominates and everyone else struggles it could mean that silver and bronze at worlds are up for grabs.
Since worlds, unfortunately, all three have struggled and they seem to be a question mark for this year. Joubert has had an unsuccessful Grand Prix and has been criticized for skating like Yagudin. Likewise, Lindemann had a poor international showing earlier in the season, and many felt his bronze medal was the result of a home court advantage in Dortmund. Lambiel missed the Grand Prix due to injury and won the Swiss title this year with a rough performance.
The question for this year's worlds is whether the western Europeans will return to form or whether new faces will occupy the podium. Plushenko is the closest thing to a lock for gold that there is in skating right now, but the other 2 spots are less certain. Judging by the year's performances so far, Sandhu, Weir and Buttle have a good chance of standing out this year under the new judging system. Li and others will likely have to wait and see if the system changes after this year to give more credit to the quad.
The European Championships will be a good indicator of what to expect at worlds. If there are several outstanding performances like there were last year, it could indicate a possible repeat, but if Plushenko dominates and everyone else struggles it could mean that silver and bronze at worlds are up for grabs.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
I'm betting on Poykio, Rochette, and Sebestyen. It happens in my dreams and it could happen in Moscow.Red Dog said:
Joe
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Your are quite right far as artistry is concerned with the N.American Men, and I do think the quads will be there which I believe is what you are getting at. Whether they land them is another matter. Six N.American Men - one will land a quad. Law of Averages.brad640 said:
And artistry of Lambiel will be the high point at Euros. JMO.
Who is this other Russian boy who is being touted as Plushenko's replacement? It's not Griazev. Somebody with a name beginning with S?
Joe
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Slutskya - I think that the competition is Irina's to lose at this point. She has had an awesome season for her come back. I know that she wants to win a world championship gold medal in front of a home crowd. However, that might be too much pressure for her. We've seen good skaters crumble when they want to win as much as she does (Kwan in SLC).
Arakawa - As much as I like her, her season has not been that good. I hope she can pull it together for the end of the season. However, the odds are against her winning gold. Kwan is the only one in the past 10 years to repeat as the gold medalist.
Cohen - The pressure is semi-off her right now. People are writing her off like a bad check, under the impression that she is a hopeless case. I'm not a fan of hers, but she is always a looming threat. In previous years, she has looked better at the beginning of the season. Maybe this is her turn to look good at the end. Who knows? I don't see this as being her year, but I've been wrong before. She would do better I think if she had to claw her way up from the bottom. She seems to really fold under the pressure of being the leader.
Kwan - No, she has not skated under the CoP before, but I'm not that worried about that. Her reputation and consistency can overcome that. I think that she will make the podium, but that she won't win gold. I think it may be better for her mentally to go into next season without the weight of that world championship on her shoulders. I worry about her qualifying round though. While Sasha has Ando to deal with, Kwan is up against Slutskya and Arakawa.
Ando - What she lacks in artistry, she makes up for in power. If she completes the quad in competition, we could see the judges rewarding her with the bronze much like Kimmie during US Nationals.
After all that analysis:
1. Slutskya
2. Kwan
3. Ando/Arakawa/Cohen
4. Ando/Arakawa/Cohen
5. Ando/Arakawa/Cohen
Arakawa - As much as I like her, her season has not been that good. I hope she can pull it together for the end of the season. However, the odds are against her winning gold. Kwan is the only one in the past 10 years to repeat as the gold medalist.
Cohen - The pressure is semi-off her right now. People are writing her off like a bad check, under the impression that she is a hopeless case. I'm not a fan of hers, but she is always a looming threat. In previous years, she has looked better at the beginning of the season. Maybe this is her turn to look good at the end. Who knows? I don't see this as being her year, but I've been wrong before. She would do better I think if she had to claw her way up from the bottom. She seems to really fold under the pressure of being the leader.
Kwan - No, she has not skated under the CoP before, but I'm not that worried about that. Her reputation and consistency can overcome that. I think that she will make the podium, but that she won't win gold. I think it may be better for her mentally to go into next season without the weight of that world championship on her shoulders. I worry about her qualifying round though. While Sasha has Ando to deal with, Kwan is up against Slutskya and Arakawa.
Ando - What she lacks in artistry, she makes up for in power. If she completes the quad in competition, we could see the judges rewarding her with the bronze much like Kimmie during US Nationals.
After all that analysis:
1. Slutskya
2. Kwan
3. Ando/Arakawa/Cohen
4. Ando/Arakawa/Cohen
5. Ando/Arakawa/Cohen
Men
Plush (but think next year Lambiel can beat him with equal jump content)
Lambiel/Joubert
Buttle/Weir (with a quad I think they could land on the podium or do so with less than perfect skates from Lam/Jou.)
Gab
Lindy
Li
VanDerPer
Honda
Griazev
Women
Slutsky (do not like her LP but she's getting the scores. If Kwan can land a 3t/3t and can speed up those spins, maybe her)
Kwan
Arakawa/Cohen (they both seem out of it somewhat this year so who knows)
Rochette/Ando (if the two above have problem skates and R/A are clean)
If Fumie gets there, she might surprise
Poykio
Sokolova
Costner/Sebast/Kirk
Plush (but think next year Lambiel can beat him with equal jump content)
Lambiel/Joubert
Buttle/Weir (with a quad I think they could land on the podium or do so with less than perfect skates from Lam/Jou.)
Gab
Lindy
Li
VanDerPer
Honda
Griazev
Women
Slutsky (do not like her LP but she's getting the scores. If Kwan can land a 3t/3t and can speed up those spins, maybe her)
Kwan
Arakawa/Cohen (they both seem out of it somewhat this year so who knows)
Rochette/Ando (if the two above have problem skates and R/A are clean)
If Fumie gets there, she might surprise
Poykio
Sokolova
Costner/Sebast/Kirk
Gold - Michelle
Silver - Irina
Bronze - Shizuka/Rochette/or Miki
While it flies in the face of the odds, given Michelle has not been tested under COP, her Bolero isn't yet as COP friendly, and it's Irina's home advantage, I think Kwan will surprise everyone and have 3 awesome skates with increased difficulty that will give her the gold. I'm worried for Irina given her last skate, its not like her, and I want to see her do well, but even if she has several mistakes I can't see her placing lower than Silver. Rochette and Miki are really consistant and threats for sure, and they'll have NOTHING to loose. Who knows about Shizuka - she's so unpredictable, stronger than Rochette or Miki if she skates well, but she has looked so burnt out this season, and seems to suffer from competitve nerves that won't serve her well with the pressure of defending the World title. I don't have any idea about Sasha - she is so unpredictable - but her nerves certainly dont bode well for her. Plus she seems to have lost confidence and technique. Something more than nerves was wrong with her jumps at the fall cheesefest and at Nationals. It was very evident during practices where she was practicing jumps as if to relearn them. I was surprised when didn't fall more during her performance. Hard to believe she could have her game back by Worlds.
Silver - Irina
Bronze - Shizuka/Rochette/or Miki
While it flies in the face of the odds, given Michelle has not been tested under COP, her Bolero isn't yet as COP friendly, and it's Irina's home advantage, I think Kwan will surprise everyone and have 3 awesome skates with increased difficulty that will give her the gold. I'm worried for Irina given her last skate, its not like her, and I want to see her do well, but even if she has several mistakes I can't see her placing lower than Silver. Rochette and Miki are really consistant and threats for sure, and they'll have NOTHING to loose. Who knows about Shizuka - she's so unpredictable, stronger than Rochette or Miki if she skates well, but she has looked so burnt out this season, and seems to suffer from competitve nerves that won't serve her well with the pressure of defending the World title. I don't have any idea about Sasha - she is so unpredictable - but her nerves certainly dont bode well for her. Plus she seems to have lost confidence and technique. Something more than nerves was wrong with her jumps at the fall cheesefest and at Nationals. It was very evident during practices where she was practicing jumps as if to relearn them. I was surprised when didn't fall more during her performance. Hard to believe she could have her game back by Worlds.
Kathy I love what you predicted.
But given the recent result at Europeans and the Worlds is at Mosco. I would go
1. Irina
If judge let her win European with 3 triples and one combo against relative weak European field. She could win worlds with 5 triples and two combo against the field with Arakawa, Michelle, Joannie, Miki, Sasha etc
2. Michelle/Arakawa
Arakawa will go back trainning with TT for two weeks before the worlds just like last season, can she repeat the performance like last season? It depends on her nerve as a defending WC she had something to lose.
Michelle she was not satisfy with her National performance, if I take anything as indicator of her National performance, that is she is not peaked yet. Just look at her weight, she was not on special diet for National comp.
3. Rochette/Miki/Sasha
Rochette if she skated like Canadian National she definitely will medal, or may be could win if others falt.
Miki she's been improved competetion after competetion, I expect her coming to worlds with more improvements and with her age, it is obvious very doable.
Sasha I certainly expect her do much better than Nationals. Kathy you were right on your observation about Sasha's jumps at Nationals. According to my source she lost all her triples and double axel when she first came back to Nicks. Only one month work with Nicks, she restored most of her jumps and landed 4 of them in LP. With two more monthes work, she would do much better than National I believe.
But from all my heart, Kathy I hope your prediction is right, and if there is some rewarding for this prediction, I'd like sacrifying my prediction for yours. LOL.
But given the recent result at Europeans and the Worlds is at Mosco. I would go
1. Irina
If judge let her win European with 3 triples and one combo against relative weak European field. She could win worlds with 5 triples and two combo against the field with Arakawa, Michelle, Joannie, Miki, Sasha etc
2. Michelle/Arakawa
Arakawa will go back trainning with TT for two weeks before the worlds just like last season, can she repeat the performance like last season? It depends on her nerve as a defending WC she had something to lose.
Michelle she was not satisfy with her National performance, if I take anything as indicator of her National performance, that is she is not peaked yet. Just look at her weight, she was not on special diet for National comp.
3. Rochette/Miki/Sasha
Rochette if she skated like Canadian National she definitely will medal, or may be could win if others falt.
Miki she's been improved competetion after competetion, I expect her coming to worlds with more improvements and with her age, it is obvious very doable.
Sasha I certainly expect her do much better than Nationals. Kathy you were right on your observation about Sasha's jumps at Nationals. According to my source she lost all her triples and double axel when she first came back to Nicks. Only one month work with Nicks, she restored most of her jumps and landed 4 of them in LP. With two more monthes work, she would do much better than National I believe.
But from all my heart, Kathy I hope your prediction is right, and if there is some rewarding for this prediction, I'd like sacrifying my prediction for yours. LOL.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
It's not that Irina is skating poorly. She has demonstrated good wins in the GP. The Euros showed she was not up to par and lesser skaters were but Irina was held up.
The winner at the Worlds in Moscow will be Irina one way or another.
Joe
The winner at the Worlds in Moscow will be Irina one way or another.
Joe
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2003
I think Irina's poor showing at Euros means that she will not get "held up" at Worlds if her skate is lackluster. If she skated great at Euros but then made some mistakes at Worlds, the judges might have held her up because of her strong performances at Euros and throughout the GP. This is what happened at Euros -- Irina was held up because of her strong showing throughout the GP. But now I think her "political capital" is spent. If she skates like this again at Worlds, it would be a pattern, not an aberration.
However, I do not believe she will skate this poorly in Moscow.
However, I do not believe she will skate this poorly in Moscow.
Keep in mind that Irina did not skate well at Russian Nationals either, so that is two poor skates for her in a row. Of course there was mention she was sick at Nationals, but still.
I think the ladies title is between Irina and Michelle. I just have a feeling.
Johnny Weir will win silver and Joubert will be bronze.
Belbin and Agosto will win a silver over a crummy performance by N&K. "Wuz Robbed!" will be heard throughout the land.
T&M will win a close race against S&Z - both will skate great, with T&M winning slightly in components.
I think the ladies title is between Irina and Michelle. I just have a feeling.
Johnny Weir will win silver and Joubert will be bronze.
Belbin and Agosto will win a silver over a crummy performance by N&K. "Wuz Robbed!" will be heard throughout the land.
T&M will win a close race against S&Z - both will skate great, with T&M winning slightly in components.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Sick or not she will win the Worlds. The other skaters must battle it out for silver and bronze.Lucy25 said:
Joe
With all the bad press about the "scandal" regarding the Europeans, I think the judges are going to do evrything they can to make the judging at Worlds fair. The last thing COP and figure skating needs is another huge deal about unfair judging at Worlds. Had this not happened, and there was no current uproar, I would agree with Mzheng and Joe that no matter what Irina would win. But I doubt that now. Worlds is a huge test for COP and I can't imagine them being stupid enough to risk another "scandal" with judging - skating has so much to lose if that happens - all the credibility they are working to attain. That being said I think the judging will most likely be the fairest ever. Now Irina still may well win, but if she does I think it will be because she skates well enough to do so. I am still going out on a limb and saying Michelle will win, mostly because she, among the top three is in the best psychological position to do so.
Joesitz said:
I agree with this. I mean, she won the European Championships with a LACKLUSTER performance. If the judging is like this it might be a shoo-in for her.
I don't want any specific skater to win or not win, but I want the judging to be FAIR. That is, whoever deserves to win WINS, regardless of whether it is Irina, Kwan, Rochette or Arakawa.
With all the uproar of European 'Scandul'. Katy you might be right. I'm only going to say this 'scandul' and the fact that Rusian sweep the European podium may actually in a way helped chances of US and/or Japanese Ladies in Lady and Chinese in pairs. It's unlikely that a Rusian going to repeat the sweep at Mosco Worlds.
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2003
Political Capital
As I suggested earlier, given her lackluster gold medal winning performance and the pointed media attention, Irina definitely "spent" a significant chunk of political currency with this win. It's not good to falter in a big competition like Euros -- Michelle and even Sasha's U.S. Nats skates were better than Irina at Euros.
This makes the whole competition murkier. Irina is still "ahead" as far as the political game goes. Worlds is in Moscow which gives her a definite advantage and two of her major rivals -- Sasha and Shizuka -- frittered away their political currency with unimpressive seasons. The biggest threat to Irina is Michelle. However, Kwan is totally untested with CoP. Who knows what will happen at this point? I am still quite sure Irina will be on the podium, but she is far from being a lock for gold.
Yes. The politics are always going to be there. Skaters earn "political capital" by skating well in competition, especially big events. But usually only the top skaters like Irina get to "spend it" -- by getting propped up when they have an off night. Spend too much though and you will find youself with an empty bank and off the podium besides.
As I suggested earlier, given her lackluster gold medal winning performance and the pointed media attention, Irina definitely "spent" a significant chunk of political currency with this win. It's not good to falter in a big competition like Euros -- Michelle and even Sasha's U.S. Nats skates were better than Irina at Euros.
This makes the whole competition murkier. Irina is still "ahead" as far as the political game goes. Worlds is in Moscow which gives her a definite advantage and two of her major rivals -- Sasha and Shizuka -- frittered away their political currency with unimpressive seasons. The biggest threat to Irina is Michelle. However, Kwan is totally untested with CoP. Who knows what will happen at this point? I am still quite sure Irina will be on the podium, but she is far from being a lock for gold.
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Mzheng, I definitely agree that this "scandal" at Euro's has made FAIR judging at Worlds much more likely. It has increased the chances that Michelle, Shizuka, Sasha, Miki and Rochette will be scored fairly, and has made the possibility of Irina winning "just because" it's her hometown, "just because" she has had good skates this season, "just because" she has COP friendly programs, or "just because" of her illness and amazing and inspiring comeback. I wish we never had to consider the social/political issues in predicting who will win. I wish we could truely base our predictions on who will have the best skates of the event, based on their skills, programs, and physical and psychological strengths. I hope with all my heart that this would happens in every competition, and certainly at Worlds, and if that turns out to be true my money is still on Michelle.
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- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
No so. They will. There is a mindset in Russia to win for the State. imo.mzheng said:
Joe
