Worlds Predictions

[screech]

My predictions:

Men:
1) Plushenko
2) Weir
3) Joubert

Somewhere in the top 10 will be at least 1 Canadian guy (maybe in the top 5), a good chance for both Canucks in top 10, Li, Goebel, and some other guys

Ladies:
1) Slutskaya
2) Arikawa
3) Kwan or Cohen

The top 10 (in any order) will also have at least one Canadian girl (Joannie maybe in top 5), a chance for both to be in top 10, Kostner, Poykio, Sebestien, Ando, and some others

Pairs:
1) Shen/Zhao
2) Totmianina/Marinin
3) Petrova/Tikhinov

Dance:
1) Navka/Kostomarov
2) Belbin/Agosto
3) this is a toughie... D/S (France OR Bulgaria) or C/S is my guess

 

[diamondqueen]

Michelle Kwan why would I want someone else to win. I have been a fan of MK's forever and I am sticking with my favorite.

Michelle
Irina
Sasha

diamond

 

[Kwanford Wife]

My predictions for worlds....

Men
Plushy
Joubert
Buttle

Pairs
T & M
S/Z
Whoever

Dance
I dont know... But B/A will win silver/bronze

Ladies
Kwan/Irina
Irina/Kwan
Diva

I also predict lots & lots of drama

Kwanford Wife

 

[kyla2]

My Thoughts

Since Europeans, alot has changed. irina may be starting to have problems with fatigue and her health/medic. She also has a tendency to struggle with consistency at Worlds, and towards the end of the season. So I don't think she is a shoe in by any means. I also agree with Ogre Magre that they will not just hand her the gold medal under the new system because they will know they are being closely scrutinized. Having said that, i think she is one gutsy skater and human being and I wish her well.

Michelle has yet to compete under this new system but her consistency and the overall quality of her skating and presentation should land her on the podium somewhere. I suspect she will rise to the occasion to some degree with her jump combinations. I worry that she may not land in the top three after the SP though, which will make it harder to land on the podium. I hope I am worrying for nothing.

Sasha is an unknown, but she could feel less pressure since she has had such a rough season knowing little is expected of her. She should fare well under CoP and if Arakawa has a rough skate she could land on the podium.

Shizuka has had a rough season and I don't think it's over. But she also could land on the podium due to her improved presentation and triple-triple combinations, depending on how the others do.

Joannie Rochette or Miki Ando could land in third but the others would have to do really poorly.

In short, anything could happen and I am not going to make any predictions except to say that Michelle and Irina should land on the podium if all is right with the world.

 

[bdreampixie]

men
1. Plushy
2. Joubert
3. Buttle or Weir
4. Goeble

Pairs
1. TT/MM
2. Shen/Zhao
3. Pet/Tik

Dance
1. Den/Sta
2. Nav/Kos
3. Grush/Gon
4. Belbin/Agosto
5. Del/Scho

Ladies
1. Kwan
2. Irina
3. Shizuka
4. Julia S.
5. Joannie
6. Sasha
7. Miki

 

[ditzysk8r]

Irina should do well, if she can land the jumps. She has an excellently choreographed program, and the audience will be behind her, since she's coming back from illness this year. Go Irina!

Sasha will be the top American, as COP is being used, and with her spins, spirals, and choreography, her components score will be sky-high!

If MK does the same program she did at Nationals, unless the judges are completely asleep, she's not going to fare well under COP. She'd better try adding a little choreography and working on those spins ( )

Shizuka is the reigning World Champion, and the judges will remember that. We know she's got the choreography, so hopefully she will land the 3/3's!

So my prediction for ladies is:
1. Irina/Sasha
2. Kwan/Shiz
3. Kwan/Shiz

 

[R.D.]

If MK does the same program she did at Nationals, unless the judges are completely asleep, she's not going to fare well under COP. She'd better try adding a little choreography and working on those spins ( )

Well, MK claimed that she would change the program for worlds. She seemed pretty serious about getting it right, so I expect her to do well actually. It's Cohen that doesn't stand a chance, IMO.

 

[Casper]

Sasha will be the top American, as COP is being used, and with her spins, spirals, and choreography, her components score will be sky-high!

Not according to most of the people I talk to about CoP.

 

[JonnyCoop]

Sasha as I recall did QUITE well under COP when it was still in the "testing" stage last season, and that was even with the occasional bloop and splat, which, incidentally, she rarely has more than one of in a long program. For that reason, and for a few others, I'm putting Sasha 2nd behind Irina. Irina's been the most consistent this season and I'd put her first even if the Worlds were anywhere else. I'm picking Rochette for 3rd; she seems to have gotten stronger as the season has gone on and her win at the Canadian Nationals was absolutely overwhelming; she left Phaneuf in the dust and Phaneuf wasn't exactly struggling this season either.
As for the other contenders: Arakawa has not been having a great season, and certainly not one that would be expected of a reigning World champion. Even Maria Butryskaya, the Queen of Nerves, managed to kick up her skating a notch or two after her first Worlds win, but I haven't seen much indication that Shizuka has. And this is coming from a HUGE fan of hers. Ando, IMO, still needs quite a bit of artistry to get the podium. The problem with all those huge jumps is that it's a slick surface she's doing them on, so she'd have to be near perfect. Fumie has yet to prove she can beat EVERYONE and she's been erratic this season too. Poykio still has a BIT to go yet before making the Worlds podium, plus two factors are against her -- first, she has a tendency to be one of those skaters who gets undermarked, and secondly, her short program has tended to be a problem area this season. Phaneuf, as I understand it, was a bit of a mess at Canadian nationals, and I'm not sure that's the best mindframe to be carrying into your Worlds debut, tho having Rochette shoulder most of the pressure might help her.

As to the men -- well, Plushenko's pretty much a runaway choice, isn't he? As to the rest, I'm having a hard time making predictions because the main contenders with the quads haven't had a particularly great season, and the guys without the quads -- well, they don't have quads. Prohibitively, I'm picking Joubert for 2nd (tho he was better last season) and Goebel for 3rd. If Weir had a quad, I'd have him in 2nd in a minute. If Sandhu had any sense of consistency, I'd pick him for the podium. Buttle's pretty erratic, too. I don't see Lindemann pulling it off again this year (I was actually kind of surprised he won the bronze at Euros). My dark horse podium pick is Chienjiang Li, who IMO should have won the bronze a couple of years ago. Yes, he can be all over the place, too, but when he puts it together -- HE PUTS IT TOGETHER.

I'm picking Totmiannina & Maranin for Pairs, simply because their technique is 2nd to none. Shen & Zhao are more spectacular, but.... I don't know, just a feeling; I think COP will give T/M a slight edge, tho it will be close either way I believe. I pick Petrova & Tikhinov for 3rd; they've finally gained back some of the ground they've lost the last few seasons and it helps that Pang & Tong aren't having too great a season. I don't feel Zhang & Zhang are quite ready yet, they still have some technique issues to iron out. Obertas & Slavnov seem to get stronger with every competition, and I can actually see them getting the podium if Petrova/Tikhinov don't. Zagorska & Sziudek are the question marks -- they were having a great season until that injury, and I hear that their long program this year has made fans out of people who weren't that into them before.

Navka & Kostamorov will probably win dance; they seem to be the chosen ones. Denkova & Staviyisky are my silver picks, and I'm giving the bronze nod to Grushina & Goncharov -- first of all, I'm just cynical enough to believe that Belbin & Agosto are just going to have to wait another year; US dance teams seem to have to struggle. Secondly, the judges may feel they owe Grushina & Goncharov one, given the fact that they probably should have won the bronze last year, but they decided to go with a tribute medal for Winkler & Lohse. And in a close contest (as I have no doubt it will be between G/G and B/A), I have no doubt that COP is quite easy to manipulate.

 

[RealtorGal]

In order for N&K not to win gold in Moscow, one of them will have to fall... TWICE.

 

[JonnyCoop]

In order for N&K not to win gold in Moscow, one of them will have to fall... TWICE.

I don't know; that kind of thing never seemed to stop Gritshuk & Platov.....

 

[apache88]

I'm going to be bold here, Michelle the champion. I place my bet based on the competitveness of each of the skaters, afterall FS is a sport right? IMHO, competitiveness = skills 1/3 + mental toughness 1/3 + atheleticism (stamina, strength, endurance, health) 1/3.

Weaknesses
Shizuka = mental, being a defending champion
Sasha = mental as history would show, atheleticism
Irina = mental, as history would show being the favourite to win, health

For Michelle, as history would show, Michelle has almost always thrived being the underdog, when she's written off. Also, Michelle has proven to be one of the greatest competitors any sport has known, just based on that, I would think Michelle knows what to do to win. She has the most uncanny ability to know when to really up the ante and when not to, to win. At 2000 and 2001, she upped her technical ante. At 2003 Worlds, she watered down her programs. To name but a few examples.

 

[curious]

I'm going to be bold here, Michelle the champion. I place my bet based on the competitveness of each of the skaters, afterall FS is a sport right? IMHO, competitiveness = skills 1/3 + mental toughness 1/3 + atheleticism (stamina, strength, endurance, health) 1/3.

Weaknesses
Shizuka = mental, being a defending champion
Sasha = mental as history would show, atheleticism
Irina = mental, as history would show being the favourite to win, health

For Michelle, as history would show, Michelle has almost always thrived being the underdog, when she's written off. Also, Michelle has proven to be one of the greatest competitors any sport has known, just based on that, I would think Michelle knows what to do to win. She has the most uncanny ability to know when to really up the ante and when not to, to win. At 2000 and 2001, she upped her technical ante. At 2003 Worlds, she watered down her programs. To name but a few examples.

Don't expect michell to up the ante with a 3-3. She is the best competitor but if shizuka and irina deliver she won't win. Her lp is not very good but she is very consistent she will be on the podium.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I've seen Sasha at her best and if she repeats that she is definitely someone to take gold. Although, I do not like the Pas de Deux music nor her choreography to it, I think she can rise above that with her extensions. the Russian audience will like her too.

Joe

 

[rtureck]

I've seen Sasha at her best and if she repeats that she is definitely someone to take gold.

That is assuming everyone skate their absolute best also?

Although, I do not like the Pas de Deux music nor her choreography to it, I think she can rise above that with her extensions. Joe

How sad that Cohen is just relying on her extension to carry the choreography or the lack of. She is not challenging herself in terms of musicality, and choreography. She is not willing to step outside of her comfort zone of overused, popular top 50 classical pieces. IMHO at her best she can land 7 triples and have good spins. At her best she still lacks the passion to skate, not willing to put her soul into a piece and very much in need of versatility. Ice skating is a sport, so at her best I think she is very capable of winning, but if she continues her artistic (or lack of artistic) approach, I do not see Cohen giving the skating world any masterpieces at all

 

[lavender]

I don't know but for some reason I see silver in Michelle's forecast. Maybe I can't even think of gold for her with it being in Moscow and having not skated under COP. I just see her doing really well but not necessarily winning.

 

[apache88]

I've seen Sasha at her best and if she repeats that she is definitely someone to take gold. Although, I do not like the Pas de Deux music nor her choreography to it, I think she can rise above that with her extensions. the Russian audience will like her too.

Joe

The problem is Sasha, most of the time is not at her best especially in major competitions. Since 2000, she has never skated her best in Nationals and Worlds (except the QF round in 2003). Given such low probability, no bookmakers would expect Sasha to skate her best at 2005 Worlds but they might still place her high on the odds-on favourite list because Sasha excels under the COP, fall or no fall.

 

[apache88]

Don't expect michell to up the ante with a 3-3. She is the best competitor but if shizuka and irina deliver she won't win. Her lp is not very good but she is very consistent she will be on the podium.

If the top skaters manage only 6 triples (regardless of whether one of the 2 lutzes was in a 3/3 combo) and Michelle has the luxury of skating after them, she definitely doesn't need a 3/3, she just has to deliver 6 high quality triples.

 

[BittyBug]

If the top skaters manage only 6 triples (regardless of whether one of the 2 lutzes was in a 3/3 combo) and Michelle has the luxury of skating after them, she definitely doesn't need a 3/3, she just has to deliver 6 high quality triples.

It's not enough to just outscore someone on jumps - spins and footwork (levels and GOE), plus the overall PCS (including Transitions) could very well determine the winner.

 

[apache88]

It's not enough to just outscore someone on jumps - spins and footwork (levels and GOE), plus the overall PCS (including Transitions) could very well determine the winner.

I know, that's not what I meant. What I was saying is that if Irina and Shizuka can only manage 6 triples (with or without a 3/3), to at least equalize the base jump points, all Michelle has to do is deliver 6 triples WITHOUT any 3/3. Now of course there are points from other elements to consider. My whole point is, strictly regarding jumps, contrary to most posters' suggestion, Michelle doesn't need to outjump I & S by having a 3/3 under the COP. Now unless I or S delivers 7 triples...she will have no choice but to go for a 3/3 or 2A/3T to obtain 7 jumping passes.