Your Opinons on the Nats Entries (Ladies)

[Mr.D]

Here are my humble thoughts:

Michelle - I think that she will pull out another great performance. I worry a bit about the consistency of her lutz after cheesefest...but I'm sure she and Arturian will have it under control as best they can. I'm one of those that really isn't too fond of the Tosca choreography...I hope she ups the ante with more MiTF and fewer crossovers.

Sasha - This situation just gets curiouser and curiouser! Up until about 3 weeks ago, i would have pegged her to win, but now I just hope she makes the podium! I hope that Robin does good things for her mentally; I see that as being more of a deficiency than her jump technique at this point in time. If she can just try and shrug off pressure, she'll be just fine.

Jenny - I always love watching her skate. And the 3/3s that she's been landing pretty consistently since last year are a definite plus; I just hope that she doesn't start to unravel later in the program, a la Angela.

AP - I feel bad saying this, but this year's been a disappointment for her. She just hasn't performed up to her potential. To me, it seems as though her jump landings have gotten wonkier than last year, with more lean, and more underrotation. I hope she can get this in check, because if she does, she'll definitely be a podium contender.

Bebe - I was impressed with her Grand Prix performances. I don't see her on the podium this year, but she can certainly make a big move into the top 5, I think, if she skates clean programs.

Amber - I really do like her choreography/music this year. The problem is that she seems to lose all intensity in her movement after the 3/3 at the beginning of her program. I feel like this program could be spellbinding if she gave as much energy to the rest of her program after the beginning. If she can do that, and along the way, not double all of her triples, then she's got a shot at the podium, IMHO.

As for the rest...I haven't seen enough of them to make a realistic assessment of them. I can't wait for Nats!!!!

 

[AdultSkater]

USFSA judging

Hi everyone, Merry Xmas

My question to put out for discussion is this.....

Are USFSA Nationals pre-judged based on the "vision" of the USFSA to send its potentially best (i.e. win medals and placements) skaters to important World and Olympic events?

The predictions made here and statements of sureness regarding the "locks" for the top spot despite falls on jumps would indicate that many believe that the USFSA already knows who it will send, and will graciously give the third spot to a skater who can potentially perform a completely packed, triple jump program cleanly with some style and quality.....someone who will represent our skating federation well.

Under the 6.0 system, this type of judging, which is nurtured through years, and I mean many, many, many years of teaching and instruction under the USFSA, this type of judging is completely justifiable and quality and having speed and the rotations can outweigh not having your landings that night (if they see the quality landings in practice first). And believe me, the judges need to see practices and be ready to judge skating quality, etc., because there is so much stuff to judge.

USFSA Nationals can be as much about how you practice all week, and practices are competitive. Winning your practices translates into speculation about how you will do, which becomes common knowledge quickly...."So and so looks great! Watch out for them! So and so did such and such in practice! blah blah blah blah blah blah..." :sheesh:

Showing you could represent the USFSA well at all other events is enough for this judging system to send who the USFSA considers to be the best skater(s) at that moment for representation to Worlds or Olympics. Falls can be forgiven if the rest of the program is wonderful and you regain composure. Not falling in practices shows you can do the moves and could do well at Worlds. You go, despite what happens in the LP. The third spot is most often given to someone who does the best of the rest that night, but if there are 3 strong Ladies, all three are a lock (a la 1988 with Thomas, Trenary and Cadavy or 1992 with the 3 prior World medalists Yamaguchi, Kerrigan and Harding all a lock to go to Albertville. Also, MK and Tara were locks to go to Nagano if healthy).

It's the same pattern year after year after year. And many of the USFSA judges are seniors who have been judging for many, many, many years. The system is traditional and does not accept change unless it can lead to more medals, winning champions and nurturing more FS under this tradition in the US.

This is why it does produce the worlds best Ladies FS and even in the Men's event, the men are competitive. Goebel is competitive and wins medals at the big events, which isn't so shabby. The US had its last great dominant male FS in Scott Hamilton (1981-1984 he won ALL his events, including all Nationals, Worlds and Olympics), and not Boitano, Bowman, Wylie, Davis, Weiss, Goebel or Eldridge ever came close to this since. The Ladies history is known and speaks for itself, with a lot of depth.

That being said, this year he pattern would be for them to send Michelle Kwan, Sasha Cohen and whoever does the best of Jenny Kirk, AP McD or Beatrisa Liang, and Angela Nikodinov and Amber Corwin would have to show a remarkable and mature appearing security in very difficult triple jump technique to be given a chance to go. They would have to show up, win outright all of their practices, show they are well trained and hungry and there to win (Rudy Galindo did this in 1996 and won the title) and then have the skates of their lives to back it up to win a spot.

It's the same pattern year after year after year after year after year after year after year. Tradition.

Will the judging tradition continue this year? Most likely. Is MK a tradition at USFSA Nationals? Um, yes. If she skates 3-3s in practice and comes back looking ready and strong, she will win with a clean, no 3-3 program. Tradition. No one can argue that a clean MK shouldn't be placed first, one can only argue that another outskated her that night. Sasha knows this and is probably upset that MK is skating competitively until 2006. It is a healthy rivalry, to be sure. Sasha would be a lock for USFSA Gold if MK withdraws. Who is better, even with the falls? No one.

Safe predictions---

1. MK
2. SC---unless she wins practices and skates two absolutely secure and clean programs.
3. JK, BL or APMcD
6. AN, AC or another Sectional winner.

AS

 

[RealtorGal]

Excellent analysis, AS. I totally agree with you. In '98, I thought Tara's fall in the SP should have placed her lower than it did; but, of course, the judges had to make sure she was positioned to make the team.

I've wondered what woold have happened in '02 had Angela skated a better LP. Would they have sent her in place of Sarah, whose skate was mediocre? It seemed to be close after the SP, but perhaps it wasn't as close as I had thought.

That 3rd spot is open but not to all. Jenny is probably the front runner given her win at Skate America (and my own personal pick). Amber, on the other hand, has about a .01% chance of getting that last spot unless everyone else has a total meltdown. Too bad, because I always felt that the potential was there but she just has never been able to capitalize on it. It would be nice to see the stars align for her just once a la Paul Wylie.

Then again, the judges were poised to give Oly gold and silver to MK and Irina, and we know how that all turned out! Yes, that was an intl. competition--I bring it up because there are always surprises!

 

[dewet]

I'd say Jenny has the best chance at the top three out of the other contenders. Amber doubles lots of her jumps and cheats them, everyone else would have to skate horribly for her to make the world team. When was the last time she landed a clean triple flip? With the way AP has been skating this season, with more mistakes and cheats, I don't see her on the podium. Isn't Bebe still too young to go to worlds? Angela's sectional performance didn't seem too great, and Yebin hasn't competed this season at all. Jenny has been skating well and has more experience internationally. Kwan and Cohen are in the top two spots regardless of how they skate.

 

[Ogre Mage]

Nats entries

We already know that Michelle and Sasha are going to worlds (barring injury). As to who will actually win the title, I believe MK will win. Sasha could still be a strong challenger, but I suspect she has become a headcase with this sudden coaching change. Her programs are strong vehicles and she has the talent, but she has a tendency to be inconsistent and is now having to make a huge change right before a major competition. This doesn't bode well. That said, it is still possible she could surprise us.

And who will take the coveted third spot? In spite of her inconsistencies this season, I think Jenny is most likely to. She has looked the most impressive of the other USA ladies. That flutz is a problem though. AP would have been the top contender, but she seems to be going backward this season with injuries, cheated jumps and one bad performance after another. If she could just get her act together, I think she would be a near-lock for the third spot. Ye Bin has been MIA all season, who knows what shape she is in. Bebe has looked both good & bad at times. I think this is more of a time for her to "make an impression" with a good skate so the judges will take notice in the future. Realistically, she should be aiming for a top 6 finish here to set herself up for next season. I love Angela's skating, but I don't have a lot of confidence in her at this point. Amber? No.

 

[CarolA0923]

You know there are some flaws in the "judges" decided theory. See Rudy Galindo. I am pretty sure the year he won Nationals NO ONE thought the judges were holding him a spot.

If someone has the great skate then the door is open. I think that if they just have an OK skate then the judges tend to "hold up" the known entities.

My wish is that ALL of the women would just stay vertical and avoid the spat fest.

I think Michelle has a good shot simply because with the noteable exception of the Oylmpics, she competes very well.

USFSA will more then likely send the top three to worlds so if AP does not finish third look for her at Four Continents. They have been pretty consistent about this except if a major skater is injured.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

You know there are some flaws in the "judges" decided theory. See Rudy Galindo. I am pretty sure the year he won Nationals NO ONE thought the judges were holding him a spot.

If someone has the great skate then the door is open.

With this in mind, my heart is pumping
BEATRISA LIANG

Joe

 

[youarewhipped]

I realize that a lot of people are discounting AP, and rightfully so based upon her season but I think that she could pull it off.
FIRST WHAT I'D LIKE TO POINT OUT:

All of our top senior ladies have funky lutzes!
What a trend!
-Michelle goes into it with that mohawk and often flutzes and sometimes we see the scissor arms.
-Sasha has a bad, bad flutz as we know and sometimes misses that toepick. She also has been doing the mohawk.
-AP's 3z is a true lutz but often has swingy landings. It is best when she does the 3z-2l which she used last early last season--it produced a 100% clean 3z everytime I saw it and had a nicer 2nd jump.
-Jenny's lutz is pretty terrible. She does huge, huge scissor arms and kicks that leg like she's doing a charlotte. It is usually cheated and wrapped. The speed is improved though.
-Amber basically can't do it. It was about a half turn cheated in the long at Skate America. She does the 3t-3t (more or less a 2a-2a) in the short because it is more consistent than her 3z-2t or whatever and easier for her and the combination is more important in the short than the two other solo jumps.
-Angela's lutz was always pretty solid. She did the mohawk too but the flutz wasn't bad. The picking leg was weird though, I was just watching her 1999 Nats tape and man is it turned out!
-Sarah okay fine she's retired but her lutz was funky. She had the charlotte and major scissor arms. Huge flutz, huge cheat.

I'm not trying to bash, just being picky. On the other hand, Ye Bin's lutz is beatiful. Regardless, all of our top senior ladies (and there are so many of them) have great overall packages and could all do well at Worlds.
My predictions:

1.) Michelle Kwan--Michelle always has the right mindset and we know that we will never get a disaster performance from her, at her worst she'll double the triple loop and do something funky on the triple lutz. If true disaster strikes, maybe a double axel problem will arise. I don't really see any of this happening, she is so confident in her abilities and her skating is just marvelous. I would like to see her push her self and do the 3t-3t which is probably the best 3-3 for any lady today other than maybe Shizuka's 3z-3t or Irina's 3z-3l of years past. Also the judges obviously like her and will hold her up, especially with the traditional judging system being used. I think if Michelle skates clean or at least is into the performance by the end, she will win. The passion, the fire convinces you that she was the best. Do you remember last year? That hyponotic footwork? That falling leaf? The ending spin? She wrapped that performance up so well, if she does that, she's untouchable.

2.) Sasha Cohen--I think she'll be second regardless because I don't see a total meltdown, but she won't be clean. Sasha seems to have a phobia of skating against Michelle, because whenever she does she faulters (except for at Campbell's this year). She seems to only do well on the Grand Prix circuit which Michelle skipped. She probably lost confidence after the Grand Prix Final not because she was beaten by Fumie (because Fumie is perfectly capable of beating anyone and has beaten Sasha the past two years at Worlds) but because she just skated so poorly. It was back to the old Sasha. I don't think Robin Wagner will help her either. Sasha is all about intensity, you can see it in her skating. Sarah was the exact opposite with the relazed, carefree style. Yes Robin says she is a competitive coach, but I doubt it will work out well. Just based upon Sarah's funky technique, I'm not sure what will happen with her jumps if she stays with Robin. Sasha's jumps are technically superb, but they are inconsistent, maybe Robin can help her sustain them, who knows? The judges probably dont' care, but I thinhk Swan Lake was a bad idea--so overused. Also, her programs in Grand Prix were technically less difficult than Kwan (im not sure abou the GPF) because she did two 3f and one 3z while Kwan does one 3f and two 3z's. If Sasha does have a meltdown like last year, other contenders could overtake her. Regardless, Sasha will be on world team, even if she's the third American seed. Please Sasha, GO BACK TO JOHN NICKS!

3.) Ann Patrice McDonough--I just think she will pull it off. If she does, she will be rewarded especially after they held her back last year. I've talked to AP and watched her and she is such a hard worker and so determined, I think she can do anything. She always says she loves big competitions, so here is her chance to shine. Yes Swan Lake was a bad choice, but the choreo isn't that bad--I do like the Russian FW. I've seen her do public performances this year and she has been emoting the the crowd more which will help. I hope she just lands the jumps which are clean despite their often swingy look. The DA is still small, but Michelle and Sasha have had DA problems in the past also. I've seen her work various 3-3's, such as 3t-3t (2ft on 2nd one), 3l-3l (landed many times cleanly) and 3f-3t (looked clean to me) so hopefully she'll put one in. I don't know about the injury though, Tom Z seems to be smart and I think he'll make the right decisions. I'm just worried about what Julie (AP's mom) might do, I hope she doesn't ignore it and make the injury worse. Also, AP changed her spirals this year and they do look better. If she skates well, she'll be 3rd or if Sasha falters 2nd. The judges will probably reward her this year if she deserves it.

4.) Jenny Kirk--Not as aesthetically pleasing as AP (who she will battle with mainly I presume), I feel like her skating is unrefined and very Juvenile. I know Intermediate and Juvenile level skaters with better artistry and stroking. Her jumps and speed have improved a lot, but she still struggles with the flip and lutz. She wraps and cheats, but she can pull off the 3-3. I'm not sure about her consistency at this point but she did do very, very well at Skate America. The spins still have weak positions and the spirals aren't great, but the judges will reward her if she deserves. If she and AP are neck and neck, I think they'll give it to Jenny based upon her international performances this year (although I like AP better personally). I think next season she should really work on her stroking and get a more mature long (Die Framidius by Liszt i think or whatever is very immature). She has a great jump coach now and her jumps will improve, she just needs more artistic development.

The rest:

Angela Nikodinov: I just don't see it, I think the confidence is gone and she'll retire after this season. I miss her so much, I really loved her skating and wanted her to go to the olympics instead of Sarah in 2002 (but look what happened there!), but she just botched it. I'd like to see her pull it together and if she does she'll be any easy world team member. The judges like her and at her best she is much better artistically and technically than Jenny or AP at this point.

Amber Corwin: The jumps still are funky and she is slow. Not a good combination. She'll be her typically top ten showing.

Bebe Liang: Grrr she makes me mad. I though she'd medal after that 5th? place finish at 12. She has gotten much more secure in her jumps and has matured but I think her facial expressions are sometimes reminiscent of a deer in the headlights. I think she's too young for worlds--15? and didn't medal at Junior Worlds--4th? so no worlds for her. I guess the judges could put her in third (which she is capable of) and have the fourth place finisher go to worlds, but this is unlikely. It happened in 1999 with Kwan in first Nari Nam (who I miss more than anyone ever) in 2nd, Nikodinov third and Hughes 4th. Hughes got to go to worlds because she medalled at Junior Worlds while NNN stayed home because she was 13 and had not even competed at the previous Junior Worlds. I know Bebe's GP circuit was good, but i still don't think the judges will reward her.

Ye Bin: Haven't seen her all season. I really liked her, I'd like her more with makeup and consistency--Please Yebin prove us that last year wasn't a fluke!

OK time for my fun--I gave my predictions, but these are my wishes:

1st Michelle Kwan
2nd AP McDonough
3rd Angela Nikodinov
4th YeBin Mok
5th Bebe Liang
6th Amber Corwin
7th Louann Donovan--she is so talented, I want her to do well!

17th, 18th Jenny Kirk and Sasha Cohen--sorry I really don't like them hahah.


This year will be sooo interesting for the ladies, can't wait for Worlds! Ando with that quad.....will be interesting. Fumie with confidence...very interesting. I assume Cupcake who should be renamed Poundcake is out of the game....20 extra lbs don't help in figure skating. I feel bad for her, I really liked her....

 

[show 42]

Hey whipped, great assessment of the ladies and welcome to GS. Hope to hear more from you...42

 

[Fossi]

Honestly I gonna have a hard time watching Nationals this year. No Sarah. And RW with Sasha Cohen. That's not something I'm ready to see just yet. I have been a Sarah fan forever. I am not ready to jump ship just yet. Words can't express my disappointment that Sarah won't be at Nationals. I know, I know that she accomplished what she needed to and has a great future. But figure skating needs her! Nobody, and I mean nobody, is as consistent as Sarah with the jumps and the difficult 3/3's.
Alright....I'll stop whining. I just really, really, really miss Sarah.
My thoughts on some of our current ladies and Nat's':

Michelle Kwan: Good all around skater. Great personality. Has the goods and always has. America just loves her. Will she deliver? Or lack of competing hurt her?
Sasha Cohen: New Coach. She needed something, but I don't know how I feel about her being with RW. I didn't see all the improvements everyone talked about. Still 5 triple programs with mistakes. Has ability to be a great skater. Which skater will show up though?
Jenny Kirk: When she is "on" watch out Sasha and maybe even Michelle. Fans love her. She is a joy to watch, but when she doesn't have the spark it's not a good show.
AP: Dang. I love this girl. But does she love skating? What is missing with her?
Angela: Wake up girl and skate. We know you can do it!!
But I don't know if I'll watch this year. I might be too depressed realizing Sarah has moved on, and so has RW.

 

[lavender]

My take. Neither Michelle or Sasha might win. I think that Michelle will get gold or silver. Someone will make a splash and skate well and I think it's going to be Angela. She will be a huge surprise.

 

[skatepixie]

No offence to Angela fans (I enjoy her too and I think she should have been 3rd in 02), but I dont expect her to do well. She did very poorly at Finlandia (If I remember correctly, she doubled everything, but Im not 100% on that), and at sectionals she only landed one of her triples.

 

[Rgirl]

Put me down for Insecuredges opinions.

Three weeks ago I thought this Nats would be another tense TT and Sasha eeking out a podium but who knew if good performance and Michelle trying to inject excitement into the lacklustre choreography of "Tosca." Now I can't WAIT to see what Artunian has done with "Tosca" and hope that if nothing else, Wagner helps Sasha regain her joy of skating. What a difference a couple of weeks makes.

For everybody else, see Insecure's post.

Am both thrilled and envious of all of you who get to be there! Remember, we want details!
Rgirl

 

[insecureedge]

Show 42-Thank you for your kind welcome to the forum. I've been lurking for quite a while now, and just finally decided to start posting.

Rgirl-I got the Rgirl seal of approval! Whoo-hoo! I always like reading your posts (no lie [taking a cue from Nadine[])

For everyone else, while the comments earlier in the thread are from before Cohen's coaching switch, most of what was written should still apply.

InsecureEdge

 

[show 42]

Hey Fossi, snap out of it!!! There are a lot of great skaters out there waiting for your fandom.....(is that a word?) Anyway, I know how you feel. I went through what you're going through after Paul Wylie retired, but I made it! (Sort of). When you get down, pull out Sarah's past performances and enjoy. 42

 

[ladybug]

First and Second place is really up for grabs. Michelle has had boot problems all season, she got a new coach about 6 weeks ago. She has just begun tweeking her program while all the other skaters have been doing this all season. It is her first real competition of the season and she is attempting to improve on her technical. This is a tall order even for Michelle but watch out next year.

Sasha had two bad skates but she had a fever in the first comp. and she was searching for a coach during the GPF which could be the reasons. She has a new coach now and will probably take out some of the inbetweens she needed for COP which will make her programs easier for her. She has had a rest now and Robin may be good for her mentally. Less pressure, but she may have lost some of her confidence.

That said, if Michelle skates clean, I think she will take first and Sasha second. I think Jenny will take third.

As for the men, I think Tim will take first. He may not skate clean but the USFA wants him at Worlds and I think he will skate cleaner than Mike. My take on the men is Tim first, Mike second and third will probably be Smith but third can really go to anyone.

Ice Dance - B/A in first for sure, even with mistakes. L/T second.

Pairs - I/B in first and S/D in second.