Elena 30 (1st SA, 1st TEB)
Liza 28 (2nd SA, 1st COC)
Anna 28 (1st SC, 2nd RC)
Julia 26 (2nd COC, 2nd TEB)
Ashley 24 (2nd SC, 3rd TEB)
Courtney 18 (4th SC, 4th TEB)
Still to skate:
Gracie Gold -11 (3rd SA)
Satoko Miyahara 11 (3rd SC)
Kanako Murakami 11 (3rd COC)
Polina Edmunds 9 (4th COC)
Basically, if the winner of NHK is one of the four skaters above they willget a spot. The second place winner will have to be one of the bronze medalists and they will have to score more overall to kick Ashley out of the spot (Miyahara 182.00; Gold 184.37; Murakami; 194.35)
So a realistic scenario where Ashley could get kicked out would basically one bronze medalist or someone else winning NHK and one of the bronze medalists getting second and scoring higher than the scores above.)
Leonova and Daleman can play spoiler at NHK though they're to far down in the placements to make GPF.
Yulia is safe though, I think.
Didn't you leave out Hongo?