State of the U.S. Men's Figure Skating for 2014-15

[jimeonji]

No 3A for Nathan in SP as well?

nope, he didn't try any 3As at sectionals. This was a low risk competition for him given the field and his consistency on his non 3A triples so I'm guessing he/his team wanted to try out the quad in competition, and he got pretty good results considering it's the first time he's attempted quads in competition. I do hope he gets that 3A back soon, though. He needs it.

 

[jimeonji]

Nathan has incredible skating skill for his age, but his jumps are not secured in my eyes, his landing makes me cringe sometimes. His jumps are small, indeed, but he's still small so I guess it's not much of a problem. He still lacks projection, as some poster has stated in the US national thread, I agree. Nathan reminds me of PChiddy when he was 15. Even though PChiddy didn't jump like that. They are just too much alike.

At first, when I heard of his scores I thought he might be much better than Shoma Uno. But now after watching his performance I don't know. Shoma has better projection and conviction in his skate. But still Shoma is almost 17 while Nathan is just 15. So I guess in a few years, baring injuries, I might take Nathan as the better skater. Still, junior worlds this year is going to be very interesting.

Nathan's PCS was inflated a ridiculous amount lol. I agree that he has to work on the projection for the SP, but considering that it was his first time doing it in competition and that it wasn't ready for JGP Croatia only a month or so before, I thought he did a good job of selling it. I quite like his SP but I'll wait for nationals when he's had a bit more time to make a full judgment. Nathan is still a pretty closed off skater, which I don't think is necessarily a bad thing. His LP isn't really a connect-with-the-audience type of program and his style is softer and not very dramatic. I'm excited to see where he'll be in a few years.

 

[noskates]

And yet again Jeremy Abbott breaks my heart! I'll never learn.

 

[lefeury]

I was all for Abbott coming back this year hoping that his experiences in Sochi would help him compete better,, he had to try I think, but I'm not sure much has changed for him.

 

[Mrs. P]

State of the U.S., post-GP (part 1)

Overall thoughts: Like the rest of the men’s field, the men of Team USA had their ups and downs during the Grand Prix.

I can understand if some feel concerned about the prospect of the U.S. men at this point. No USA man qualified for the GPF and it seems that none of them are consistent with the quad (not to mention that Jason Brown isn’t even trying it). However, I think the men’s field has been unpredictable and the SB scores show as much. Basically, the top 10 at Worlds can pretty much go in any order.

And quite frankly the top 10 at U.S. Nationals can go in any order as well. With that caveat, here are how I’m grouping the men in my head right now. The three levels of rankings are based on results so far this season (looking at season best scores as well as calculated averages (I did not include an average for Farris/Chen since they were only at one event) as well as general potential.

Also when available, I posted videos of season best performances. This is kind of long, it took me a while to write, but I hope it gives you all a good idea of one person’s view on where the U.S. men currently stand.

Also for the skate of not having too long of a post, I’ve spilt the report into thirds based on the groupings I’ve determined. Also for easy reference, I will link to this report in the original post on this thread (along with updating the score tracker).


The contenders/leaders

Jason Brown
Overall score: 237.17 (season’s best, #3); 235.83 (average; #1); 234.17 (season’s worst)
Short program: 83.69 (season’s best, #1); 79.92 (average #2); 76.32 (season’s worst)
Free skating: 159.24 (season’s best, #1); 155.75 (average #1); 153.58 (season’s worst)

TES SP: 43.50 (season’s best, #1); 40.23 (average #5); 37.26 (season’s worst)
PCS SP: 40.81 (season’s best, #2); 40.02 (average, #2); 39.16 (season’s worst)

TES FS : 80.58 (season’s best #2); 74.13 (average, #2); 67.74 (season’s worst)
PCS FS: 85.84 (season’s best, #1); 82.07 (average, #1); 78.98 (season’s worst)

Season Best videos
SP (Nebelhorn Trophy 2014)
FS (Rostelecom Cup 2014)

So relative to the last year, Jason struggled a bit. He posted the worst SP as a senior man at Rostelecom Cup, which caused him to be outside the final group there. The fact he failed to break 80 in either of his GP events is a bit jarring given that it came after a streak of 82+ (or more) SPs over four international events (plus U.S. nationals). That said, his overall scores have been relatively consistent to the other American men – he currently has 3 out of the top overall scores (#3, #4, #5). In addition, his free skate has improved over the course of the season. At Nebelhorn Trophy, he struggled with 4 URs and his TES did not break 70 (67.74). But at Rostelecom Cup, he had no URs (and had two ratified 3As, his first since Jr. Worlds 2013) and upped his TES by nearly 13 points (80.26), which contributed to a personal best score of 159.24 there. Even amid any struggles he appears to be having, he still had the best results on the GP that included earning first alternate status for GPF. Judges also still continue to give him top component marks as well. As always, if he opts to not do the quad, he will have to be absolutely clean to stay in the mix. A few minor mistakes seem to be okay, but basically any URs will be costly.


Richard Dornbush –
Overall score: 237.18 (Season’s best, #2); 227.76 (Average, #3); 219.27 (season’s worst)
SP: 80.24 (Season’s best #4); 78.94 (Average, #3); 77.23 (season’s worst)
FS: 157.92 (Season’s best #3); 148.82 (Average, #3) 139.03 (season’s worst)

TES SP: 42.51 (Season’s best #3); 40.98 (Average, #1); 38.98 (season’s worst)
PCS SP: 38.79 (Season’s best, #5); 38.30 (Average, #3); 37.85 (season’s worst)

TES FS: 76.92 (Season’s best, #5); 71.20 (Average #5); 64.53 (season’s worst)
PCS FS: 81.00 (Season’s best #3); 78.29 (Average #3); 75.50 (season’s worst)

Season's best videos
SP (Trophee Eric Bompard)
FS (Lombardia Trophy)

Richard secured a bronze medal in Cup of China. He was ill at Trophee Eric Bompard, leading to a 7th place finish there. Richard free skate has the potential to be a huge scorer with a quad and some tough combos in the second half of the program. His best execution of the program came at Lombardia Trophy, when he scored 76.92 in TES. It does seem that the one-quad strategy is working much better for him then his attempt to do two different quads last season. Judges seem to like his programs and have given him decent PCS scores. The key to success for Dornbush is to execute the FS to its full potential, something he has yet to do this season.


Max Aaron –
Overall score: 240.22 (Season’s best, #1); 228.20 (Average, #2); 212.60 (Season’s worst)
SP: 78.96 (Season’s best, #7); 77.52 (Average, #4); 76.50 (Season’s worst)
FS: 161.26 (Season’s best, #1); 150.68 (Average, #2); 135.51 (Season’s worst)

TES SP: 41.01(Season’s best #7); 40.73 (Average, #3); 40.58 (Season’s worst)
PCS SP: 38.95 (Season’s best, #3); 37.12 (Average, #4); 35.92 (Season’s worst)

TES FS: 83.46 (Season’s best #1); 77.91 (Average #1); 66.93 (Season’s worst)
PCS FS: 78.80 (Season’s best, #4); 73.10 (Average #3); 68.58 (Season’s worst)

Season best videos:
SP (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
FS (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)

Max earned a bronze medal at Skate Canada before falling to 7th place at Rostelecom Cup. I know Max has made efforts to improve the second mark, but it seems the judges are not buying it yet. What’s disconcerting is that Joshua Farris, who had a meltdown during the free skate at NHK only scored a little bit lower in PCS than Max at Rostelecom, who actually managed to do seven triples after missing both his quads there. Max does have the strongest TES in the FS out of all the US men, so perhaps it would be beneficial if he just go out there and hit the jumps and not worry too much about the component mark.

Jeremy Abbott
Overall score: 229.65 (Season’s best, #5); 224.49 (average, #4); 219.33 (Season’s worst)
SP: 82.81 (Season’s best, #2); 82.15 (Average, #1); 81.51 (Season’s worst)
FS: 148.14 (Season’s best, #6); 142.84 (Average, #7); 137.51 (Season’s worst)

TES SP: 41.62 (Season’s best, #5); 40.96 (Average, #2); 40.30 (Season’s worst)
TES FS: 64.28 (Season’s best, #10); 61.29 (Average, #11); 58.29 (Season’s worst)

PCS SP: 41.62 (Season’s best, #1); 41.21 (Average, #1); 40.89 (Season’s worst)
PCS FS: 83.86 (Season’s best, #2); 81.54 (Average, #2); 79.22 (Season’s worst)

Season's best videos
SP (NHK Trophy)
FS (NHK Trophy)


Jeremy finished fifth at both his GP events, Skate America and NHK Trophy. I had almost put him in the dark horse category based on this. However, what kept me from doing so is the fact that he continues to score the highest component marks among the U.S. men and his SP has been quite excellent this year. But the free skate has been really poor. He was under 60 TES at Skate America and under 70 TES at NHK Trophy. That puts him way down the rankings among the US men. With that kind of TES, he will be buried at Nationals – PCS can only save you so much. Also, Jeremy needs to fix spin levels. This has been a problem for several years now and I’m not sure why he has struggled with them so much. Still, his NHK performance in the FS was an improvement. Jeremy does seem to peak around Nationals time and he hasn’t been off the podium (i.e. finish lower than 4th) ever as a senior man, so I still think he’s a contender.

 

[Mrs. P]

State of the U.S. Men, post GP part 2)

Dark horses to medal (i.e. Top 4)

Stephen Carriere

Overall score: 231.67 (Season’s best, #4); 217.16 (Average, #5); 201.24 (Season’s worst)
SP: 80.33 (Season’s best, #3); 74.57 (Average #5); 71.18 (Season’s worst)
FS: 151.34 (Season’s best, #5); 142.99 (Average, #6); 129.04 (Season’s worst)

TES SP: 44.58 (Season’s best, #1); 40.12 (Average, #6); 37.45 (Season’s worst)
PCS SP: 34.75 (Season’s best, #9); 34.45 (Average, #9); 33.85 (Season’s worst)

TES FS: 77.48 (Season’s best, #4); 71.42 (Average, #4); 61.60 (Season’s worst)
PCS FS: 74.85 (Season’s best #7); 72.00 (Average, #6); 67.74 (Season’s worst)

Season's best videos
SP (Skate Canada)
FS (Skate Canada)

Stephen Carriere made comeback of sorts after a few years in the bottom half of the top 10 at U.S. Nationals. Thanks to a strong performance at a senior B last season, he snagged a GP invitation and ultimately ended up with two. He impressed at Skate Canada, missing out on the podium by on a fraction of a point. He struggled at Rostelecom Cup. Still, he has shown that he has the goods and when he performs his best he can be in the mix with the U.S. men.

Ross Miner
Overall score: 227.26 (Season’s best, #6); 214.13 (Average, #7); 205.36 (Season’s worst)
SP: 80.24 (Season’s best, #4); 70.22 (Average, #8); 63.36 (Season’s worst)
FS: 147.02 (Season’s best, #7); 143.91 (Average, #5); 142.00 (Season’s worst)

TES SP: 42.49 (Season’s best #4); 33.88 (Average, #11); 28.70 (Season’s worst)
PCS SP: 38.75 (Season’s best #4); 36.64 (Average, #5); 34.57 (Season’s worst)

TES FS: 71.78 (Season’s best, #6); 69.67 (Average, #6); 67.72 (Season’s worst)
PCS FS: 77.50 (Season’s best, #5); 74.24 (Average, #5); 70.22 (Season’s worst)

Season's best videos
SP (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
FS (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)

Ross is coming back this season after a tough Olympic season where he was injured for much of it. Ross only received on GP – NHK Trophy. He struggled in the SP, placing 10 out of 11 skaters. He fought back in the FS and moved up three spots to 7th place. Ross is hit and miss on his quad, but he is going for it at every competition. That said, Ross looks a lot better than he did this time at last season and he also could surprise at Nationals (see 2011 Nationals for reference).

Adam Rippon
Overall: 225.74 (Season’s best, #7); 216.03 (Average, #6); 201.92 (Season’s worst)
SP: 77.11 (Season’s best, #7); 69.45 (Average, #9); 62.83 (Season’s worst)
FS: 152.22 (Season’s best #4); 146.58 (Average #4); 139.09 (Season’s worst)

TES SP: 39.94 (Season’s best, #9); 33.93 (Average, #10); 27.73 (Season’s worst)
PCS SP: 37.04 (Season’s best, #6) 36.18 (Average, #6); 35.40 (Season’s worst)

TES FS: 77.82 (Season’s best #3); 73.61 (Average, #3); 68.59 (Season’s worst)
PCS FS: 75.02 (Season’s best #6); 70.81 (Average, #10); 66.90 (Season’s worst)

Season's best videos
SP (Trophee Eric Bompard)
FS (Finlandia Trophy)

I really feel that not making the Olympic team (or skating well at Nationals) really put the wind out of Adam’s sails. That’s not to say he doesn’t work hard or doing the best he can, but the confident Adam we saw during the GP season last year isn’t there right now. I think he has two very nice programs, but the jumps clearly need some work (that said, I liked that he introduced a new combo, the 3F-3Lo).


Nathan Chen
Overall score: 208.16 (Season’s best, #8)
SP: 72.57 (Season’s best #9)
FS: 135.59 (Season’s best, #8)

TES SP: 40.36 (Season’s best #7)
PCS SP: 33.21 (Season’s best #13)

TES FS: 68.45 (Season’s best, #8)
TES PCS: 67.14 (Season’s best #11)

Sectionals videos (showing these since they are senior level videos and include his quad attempts)
SP
FS

Nathan is a two-time U.S. champion at the junior level and won bronze at the Junior World Championships. This is his debut as a senior nationally. He delayed the start of his season and competed in just one international event – JGP Croatia Cup, where he finished third. Though a junior event, Nathan turned in some decent numbers. At Pacific Coast Sectionals, he attempted a quad toe loop and was successful in getting two of three of them ratified. He also posted a score (albeit likely inflated since it was a domestic competition) that was well above the other men. I don’t necessarily expect Chen to win the national title, but I think he will have a strong debut. Also worth a mention is the really interesting Michael Jackson hybrid for his new SP, which he debuted at sectionals. The juxtaposition is strange at first glance (Smile ----> Smooth Criminal) but it works, at least for me.

Joshua Farris
Overall score: 169.88 (Season’s best, #15)
SP: 58.35 (Season’s best #15)
FS: 111.53 (Season’s best, #14)

TES SP: 26.67 (Season’s best #15)
PCS SP: 33.68 (Season’s best #10)

TES FS: 45.25 (Season’s best #15)
PCS FS: 68.28 (Season’s best #11)

Season's best videos
SP (NHK Trophy)
FS (NHK Trophy)

Well Joshua’s international debut, to say the least, did not go well. But I can’t just put him in the “other candidates” list yet. For one, he is the reigning U.S. National pewter medalist. And when he does well, he has beautiful programs and I really like both programs for him this year. I was skeptical of the SP because of the music, but he really makes it work – that’s also praise to Jeff Buttle for making Josh’s introspection an asset rather than a liability in his skating. Even with Schindler’s List,which is a program he carried from last season, I can see some improvement in the performance.

 

[Mrs. P]

State of the U.S. Men, post-GP (part 3)

Other Top 10 Candidates
I expect the 9 men mentioned so far to finish in the top 10, but there are others who may sneak into the top 10 (or even top 6) if the men above have problems.

Douglas Razzano (Season's Best, 204.48, #9) – Doug received a host pick at Skate America (finishing 8th) and also managed to pick up a second GP assignment (Trophee Eric Bompard, where he finished 10th). AT age 26, Doug is one of the oldest skatersin the field. His best finish at Nationals is 5th. He finished 6th last season after a clean FS.
Video (2014 Skate America FS):

Grant Hochstein (Seasons Best, 204.37, #10) -Grant has been around for a few seasons. His best placement at U.S. Nationals was 7th, which came during his debut in 2010. Since then he has been 11th or 12th (except for 2013 when he was 15th). He’s competed at Lombardia Trophy earlier this season, placing 4th, his score there puts him 10th among the U.S. men on the season’s best list. He recently won the Eastern Sectional Championships.
Video (Lombardia Trophy 2014 SP)

Timothy Dolensky (Season's best, 196.93, #11) - Timothy finished 4th in his senior international debut, Skate Canada Autumn Classic, after a solid FS where he moved up from 8th place. He finished 13th in his senior Nationals debut last year. He is a great pianist and have in fact skated to his own compositions. In general, he has great musicality.

Video (Skate America Autumn Classic)

Alexander Johnson (Season's Best, 193.06, #12) – Many of you remember Alex for his WOW program to Eleanor Rigby at 2013 Nationals giving him his best finish there (7th). He did not compete in the 2013-2014 season due to injury. Looking at his early competitions you can tell Alex is still a bit rusty, but he has some fantastic programs that I think will be big crowd pleasers.
Video (2014 Midwestern Sectionals FS)

Jordan Moeller (Season's Best, 189.81, #13) – Jordan is a first-year senior who trains with Jason Brown in Colorado. Jordan finished second at the junior level last season (behind Nathan Chen) and finished 9th at the Junior World Championships. He sort of has a Jeremy Abbott quality to him (in fact he skated to the same Muse song in the 2011-2012 season). He recently won the Midwestern Sectional Championships.
Video: (2014 Midwestern Sectionals SP)

Shotaro Omori (Season's Best, 173.54, #14) – Shotaro was part of a U.S. medal sweep at the 2013 Junior World Figure Skating Championships (with Joshua Farris and Jason Brown) wining bronze with personal best performances. He sadly suffered from injuries that kept him from U.S. Nationals last season. He was named to the Junior Worlds team, but he was far from his best and he did not qualify for the free skate. This is his debut as a senior nationally.
Video (JGP Germany 2014 SP)

Sean Rabbit - He's never competed internationally, but he had a great sectional, finishing 2nd behind Nathan Chen. He finished 14th at U.S. Nationals last year, which was 5 places up from his 2013 finish (19th). He has no triple axel, so he has to be clean to get a shot at top 10.
Video (Pacific Coast Sectionals 2014 FS)

 

[rosacotton]

Thank you so much for this latest analysis on the US men, Mrs. P!!

 

[StitchMonkey]

My predictions for nationals at this point are:

Jason Brown in the top three. He did have the best season, he is popular, I think it would take a massive melt down for him to be less than top three. I am not ready to say he is a lock for gold, but I would say top three is pretty likely.

Either Max Aaron or Richard Dornbush is my second prediction. I am not sure they will both make it. I pretty much think who ever does better and seems more consistent will be in the top three and the other will be pewter (or slightly less with a meltdown).

Third sport I am predicting "someone young and new". So pretty much someone from Mrs. P's other category or Nathan Chen. Farris could fit, but sadly I am not optimistic. My thinking is the temptation to fill our third sport with someone new and promising might be rather great after a disappointing season. When the current crop is not working as well as some would like, there is something to be said for someone promising getting practice or at least a chance.

 

[Mrs. P]

Third sport I am predicting "someone young and new". So pretty much someone from Mrs. P's other category or Nathan Chen. Farris could fit, but sadly I am not optimistic. My thinking is the temptation to fill our third sport with someone new and promising might be rather great after a disappointing season. When the current crop is not working as well as some would like, there is something to be said for someone promising getting practice or at least a chance.

For reference here is when each of the skaters I mentioned debuted at nationals (and highest placement):

Jeremy Abbott - 2007 (1st - 2009, 2010, 2012, 2014)
Jason Brown - 2011 (2nd - 2014)
Max Aaron - 2012 (1st - 2013)
Joshua Farris - 2011 (4th - 2013, 2014)
Richard Dornbush - 2010 (2nd - 2011)
Douglas Razzano - 2008 (5th - 2012)
Adam Rippon - 2009 (2nd - 2012)
Ross Miner - 2011 (2nd - 2013)
Stephen Carriere - 2008 (3rd - 2008)
Grant Hochstein - 2010 (7th - 2010)
Timothy Dolensky - 2014 (13th - 2014)
Alexander Johnson - 2010 (7th - 2013)

Debuting this year: Nathan Chen, Shotaro Omori, Jordan Moeller.

So basically the only "new and fresh" skaters would be Nathan, Shotaro, and Timothy. Technically Max is relatively new, it's just that he had such a meteoritic rise nationally (winning nationals on his second try).

And looking at the list from this perspectives explains exactly why the U.S. men rankings are so unpredictable. Basically we have 8 different men who have been on the podium at some point in the last five years.

Actually, I should probably add one more into the third category.

 

[Skater Boy]

Nathan's PCS was inflated a ridiculous amount lol. I agree that he has to work on the projection for the SP, but considering that it was his first time doing it in competition and that it wasn't ready for JGP Croatia only a month or so before, I thought he did a good job of selling it. I quite like his SP but I'll wait for nationals when he's had a bit more time to make a full judgment. Nathan is still a pretty closed off skater, which I don't think is necessarily a bad thing. His LP isn't really a connect-with-the-audience type of program and his style is softer and not very dramatic. I'm excited to see where he'll be in a few years.

Is Nathan comparable to the Canadian Kid Nam though Nam is much older - like a year right?

 

[StitchMonkey]

So basically the only "new and fresh" skaters would be Nathan, Shotaro, and Timothy. Technically Max is relatively new, it's just that he had such a meteoritic rise nationally (winning nationals on his second try).

Add Jordan Moeller to that list, and pretty much what I was thinking by new and young. Josh Farris would still be new to worlds and is a possibility. Hard so say how much pearl clutching his NHK performance will cause.

 

[Mrs. P]

Is Nathan comparable to the Canadian Kid Nam though Nam is much older - like a year right?

Nam is one year older. (I don't know if that's considered much older!). Nathan and Nam are somewhat contemporaries. Nathan was a lot further along in juniors then suddenly Nam went and won junior worlds last season.

Add Jordan Moeller to that list, and pretty much what I was thinking by new and young. Josh Farris would still be new to worlds and is a possibility. Hard so say how much pearl clutching his NHK performance will cause.

Joshua when he is at his best is quite awesome. There's a reason he's a two-time pewter medalist and the 2013 Junior World champion. But his recovery from his current injury is definitely an X factor.

I like Jordan a lot, but I'm not sure he's podium material just yet. I'd say Nathan is the new kid most likely to play spoiler to the podium.

 

[Skater Boy]

Voronov is far more artistic than Kovtun. They don't belong in the same sentence. There are other ways to be artistic besides trying to look angst-ridden all the time.

Good point but it seems like in general we think of artistic in terms of angst or in ladies prnicessy or classical for all. Sophiticated humour ie Leonova does not get rewarded. Right now things look good with Brown the judges and public delight; Abbott one wold think haas to have two great skates back to back now the qestion when and where, It is really a dogs breakfast for who will make the US team other than probably Brown - even if he skates bad the Americans have pinned their hope on him. Then it is a battle with Max Aaron and jeremy Abbott probably the favourites but easily could be beaten by Dornbush, Minor, Rippon if he ever got his act together, maybe Chen but no 3A seems problematic - losing lots of point in the short program. Add to the battle carriere and Farris and there are some solid though NOT brilliant men. Jason's skating is not sublime enough ie Lambiel or Chan, his jumps not fantastic or hard enough like Plushenko or some of the Russian and Japanese men. It's looking pretty rosy for the Americans though Ice is so sl ippery they could lose a spot if the stars line up and 3 Japanese men and two Russians end up ahead of them and throw in DTen or one of the Chinese men and Javier or a Canadian and it is g ood bye three spots.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Nam is one year older. (I don't know if that's considered much older!). Nathan and Nam are somewhat contemporaries. Nathan was a lot further along in juniors then suddenly Nam went and won junior worlds last season.



Joshua when he is at his best is quite awesome. There's a reason he's a two-time pewter medalist and the 2013 Junior World champion. But his recovery from his current injury is definitely an X factor.

I like Jordan a lot, but I'm not sure he's podium material just yet. I'd say Nathan is the new kid most likely to play spoiler to the podium.

I think you are right that Nathan is more likely, but would not rule much out. Trying to push a rising star would not shock me. Even though Josh is hardly new, they still could pain him as new with his first trip to worlds and his age. Sadly I fear he may have to rebuild next year. I wonder how much of his skate at NHK was physically not healed, physically not enough time to train or mental issues. I just want to give the poor guy a give hug in a fuzzy blanket at this point.

 

[karne]

Josh's programs are so incredibly awesome this season that it would be almost criminal for them not to end up done well on the world stage. I still think he's a dark horse to take the championship, if not medal.

I'm still hanging onto my Josh-Jason-Max worlds team and podium at Nationals. I still think it's entirely possible.

 

[TMC]

Wow Mrs P you're a treasure!

 

[jimeonji]

Is Nathan comparable to the Canadian Kid Nam though Nam is much older - like a year right?

as Mrs. P answered, yup, Nathan's a year younger than Nam. Nam had a sudden breakthrough with his 3A and went and won Jr Worlds when others faltered. Nathan has actually won every single JGP he's done except Croatia this season (silver), while Nam only had a few bronzes. In terms of skating skills and presentation, I think Nathan has the upper hand, but Nam's the one with the 4S and consistent 3A and the advantage of a super open Canadian men's field. But if Nathan medals at nationals I see him moving up to seniors after this season. According to icenetwork, he's actually never been off the podium before, so I'm kind of hoping that it'll stay that way if my other faves can't podium lol.

I see nationals podium like this: Jason, Max, and then Jeremy/Adam/Ricky. Nathan if one of them falters. Maybe with the extra couple of months Nathan can get his 4T solid; he consistently delivers his super backloaded jump layouts so I see him being the most likely to sneak onto the podium. Let me mention: 88 TES at sectionals, though I don't see the judges giving him more PCS than the other medal contenders.

 

[Jammers]

I have no doubt that Nathan is going to move up to Senior's next season regardless of whether he medals or not.

 

[lmarie086]

It's hard to predict what will happen, and while I want everyone to do well, I really see Dornbush/Farris/Brown as the top three. Perhaps it was too soon for Farris to return to competition; I know I've read that he was doing reasonably well in practices (coming back from his injury), but it's another thing to be competition ready. But if he's better recovered and better prepared, I can certainly see him doing well at Nationals. Along with Dornbush, Farris has my favorite LP of the American men this season (so I am a little biased - i want to see him perform it at Worlds!).

Dornbush has been working on his consistency in competition this season, I would say. He held it together under enormously difficult circumstances at CoC, and the first half of his LP was outstanding. He struggled in the second half, but I really think that extra warm up kind of did him in. I still think there's a case to be made that he could have gotten the silver. And then he was ill at TEB, which was such a shame. He didn't have the best showing, but he didn't give up. I really love his LP, IMO it's one of the best to incorporate lyrics this season.