State of the U.S. Men's Figure Skating for 2014-15

[Tavi...]

I was talking about Jeremy. Jason is the one with the technical block.

More fans flock to figure skating when your countrymen are winning medals. Which is a good reason to support those who are likely to succeed on the big stage. That being said, I don't think the USFS is really holding up Jason. The USFS didn't double Max's 4-3--he did that on his own. But if the USFS is holding up Jason, I sure hope it's not because of his number of Twitter followers. That would be really stupid.

I'm sure you're right that winners breed interest (judging by my own rapidly declining interest in the abysmal Chicago Bears).

What I was trying to say about Jason by talking about Twitter is that he seems to able to relate to and attract people outside the figure skating community, kind of the way Pavarotti attracted non-opera fans (although it's really too soon to tell).

 

[Mrs. P]

Jason is behind the top men of the world in tech, and it currently holds him back in international competitions. That's just a fact. Maybe "block" wasn't the best word choice, if you take it to mean he'll never get over it, though I certainly did not mean it like that.

I've defended Jason's decision to not include the quad, and I've railed against the (lack of) fall penalty many times. I fail to see how I became a splat-lover and Jason-hater just for pointing out he has technical handicaps.

It's probably an argument of semantics at this point.We probably would agree that the quad is basically more like Jason's key to get to the top tier, i.e. world medal contention. That said, at this point of his career, he isn't doing too terrible without one. He was thisclose to getting into the GPF and he did manage to medal on the GP circuit in the last two seasons despite not having one.

But THAT said, Rostelecom Cup SP is probably where we saw Jason's strategy fail the most - namely cause he wasn't clean and everyone else was relatively clean with a quad (i.e. everyone above him except Misha Ge, who was clean with his quadless program). But in the free skate, that wasn't as much as the case as Jason was within 2.5 points of Voronov, who finished 2nd in the FS and as far as TES goes, he was basically tied with Brezina and Ge and within a point of Voronov. His SP is what lead to the 5th place finish. And as noted elsewhere, that same score would have medaled at other GP events.

Really, it's just math. The 175+ scores that seems to be required for a world medal are likely very unrealistic for Jason without a quad. At best he can probably score in the mid-160s (maybe even break 170 if EVERYTHING IS ABSOLUTELY PERFECT.) with his current content and probably place a respectable top 6 at Worlds.


ETA: Just for fun, I estimated what Jason could score with a truly perfect program. All level 4s, all +3 in GOE. Obviously this is not going to happen, but again this is just for fun.

His BV with a perfect jump layout (no URs) and all level 4s = 75.90. He could score up to 30.3 points with all +3 GOE. That would equal 106.2 TES. Ad 80 PCS = 186.2 Or if you want to give him Nebelhorn PCS = 191.2.

We all know that is crazy. Jason's jumps are not going to get +3 GOE on the whole. This also speaks to the limitations of not having a quad. Yuzuru obviously has scored 190+ but it did not require him to score across the board +3 on every single element. In fact he scored 191.35 at Worlds and he wasn't close to that kind of +GOE. Basically he had a BV of 90. So he didn't have to score much to get a high TES.

That said, if he even achieved the +GOE he got at Trophee Eric Bompard last season (9.95) his TES would be at 85.85. With Rostelecom Cup PCS, his FS score would be 163.85. With Nebelhorn Trophy PCS, his FS score would be 170.85. If combined with his current SP PB (85.00) and you got a total score of 256.85, which would put him close to the podium (4th or 5th) or even at a dark horse bronze situation if others mess up.

But again, this scenario only works (if he opts not to do the quad) if he's absolutely clean. No pops, no URs, decent GOE.

 

[Tavi...]

It's probably an argument of semantics at this point.We probably would agree that the quad is basically more like Jason's key to get to the top tier, i.e. world medal contention. That said, at this point of his career, he isn't doing too terrible without one. He was thisclose to getting into the GPF and he did manage to medal on the GP circuit in the last two seasons despite not having one.

But THAT said, Rostelecom Cup SP is probably where we saw Jason's strategy fail the most - namely cause he wasn't clean and everyone else was relatively clean with a quad (i.e. everyone above him except Misha Ge, who was clean with his quadless program). But in the free skate, that wasn't as much as the case as Jason was within 2.5 points of Voronov, who finished 2nd in the FS and as far as TES goes, he was basically tied with Brezina and Ge and within a point of Voronov. His SP is what lead to the 5th place finish. And as noted elsewhere, that same score would have medaled at other GP events.

Really, it's just math. The 175+ scores that seems to be required for a world medal are likely very unrealistic for Jason without a quad. At best he can probably score in the mid-160s (maybe even break 170 if EVERYTHING IS ABSOLUTELY PERFECT.) with his current content and probably place a respectable top 6 at Worlds.

I was really hoping he'd break 160 with that last FS! Hopefully, soon.

 

[noskates]

Geez Sandpiper - lighten up. I never said you are a splat lover or a Jason hater - I didn't even imply it. I readily admit he has technical handicaps but that they aren't insurmountable. At this stage of his YOUNG career he's opted not to go for it and fall. Rostelecom is not a good representation of what Jason can do. He is a sensitive young man and he had just suffered a big shock and a loss. Go back and look at the end of his LP and he was crying!!! Not because he didn't do well but because he was impacted by what had happened. Did it cause him to not present a clean program? Who knows. But I believe it definitely had a big impact.

I don't know if he's going to be on a world podium. I don't know if he's going to win Nationals this year. But when I look at the men representing the US, he's the best skater out there from a totally whole package perspective. The only thing he doesn't have is the quad! He'll either get it or not. He's excited a lot of people in the US about figure skating and for that I'm grateful. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on him and I'm also not ready to anoint Max Aaron as the next best US man! He hasn't done much since he won Nats in 2012. MaX is a very sweet young man. I've met him and talked to him. I think he sincerely works hard and does the best he can. But I don't think he excites people about the sport the way that Jason does. I have no clue why not other than the charisma isn't there. (Oh Lord, Golden is going to come after me!!!! ) The bottom line is - in my heart of hearts I want whoever wins Nats this year to be a good representation of US figure skating and be competitive internationally. Right now.....I don't know who that's going to be!

 

[Jaana]

I don't know how anyone can say Jason has a technical block. He AND his coach have made it clear that he's not putting a quad in his program until he can land it clean consistently. Their theory is that a clean program is better than a program with multiple sprat falls on attempted quads. Many of the other male skaters put that damnable jump in and can't skate clean anymore. Unfortunately those sprat falls get rewarded because of the rotations (which I don't agree with - a fall is a fall!) Whether Kori is right on this note or not - that's what they've decided!!! So whether she's right or she's stupid in going along with this thought process - it is what it is!!!!

Maybe Brown cannot fully rotate his quad, as it happens with his triple axel now and then? I agree, no sense in putting a quad if it cannot be fully rotated (whether with a fall or not).

Rostelecom is not a good representation of what Jason can do. He is a sensitive young man and he had just suffered a big shock and a loss.

I have understood that Brown knew him only for a few months. It is certainly a shock, but as an excuse for not skating so well, it is not a good one, in my opinion.

 

[Tahuu]

I'm also not ready to anoint Max Aaron as the next best US man!

Max was already the best US man in 2012 . He just needs to land his quads at the Nationals to be on the top podium again.

 

[karne]

Because I don't get it either, but as far as most people are concerned here..."You're damned if you do with the quad and your damned if you don't."
Jeremy took it out to play it safe this past weekend and all he got was crap about it from couch coaches here lol!

Okay, here is the difference. Jason doesn't ever put it in, but instead focuses on - and mostly delivers - clean performances.

Jeremy took it out - and still was shoddy. If he had taken it out and gone beautifully clean I would 100% support his move as a great tactical move. But he didn't. He took it out and still couldn't go clean.

A lot of skaters could try doing one quad, and not in combination and do great. Max Aaron could likely do much better in his short with a 4S and 3L+3T rather than gamble on the 4S+3T he keeps doubling. There is a middle ground between quad crazy and no quad.

The issue is that the judges hate what's different and won't give him the PCS, so if he changes the combo, he starts losing points. Still/again.

What I was thinking more of was not necessarily promoting him as a hockey player on nbc or sending him to industry events but doing more grass roots kind of stuff like going to rinks and schools and teaching / talking to / inspiring little boys (and little girls who like hockey, geez how sexist am I?). Seriously, like the events they were doing in between stars on ice. Or having him on kids tv show - how great would that be (they could do that one with Jason as well).

I like this idea. Mostly because of the utterly adorable mental image of Max surrounded by adorable little kids. Until he gets to the deep south and the kids start repeating the words they hear at home...

I'm not ready to throw in the towel on him and I'm also not ready to anoint Max Aaron as the next best US man! He hasn't done much since he won Nats in 2012. MaX is a very sweet young man. I've met him and talked to him. I think he sincerely works hard and does the best he can. But I don't think he excites people about the sport the way that Jason does. I have no clue why not other than the charisma isn't there. (Oh Lord, Golden is going to come after me!!!! )

*angry foot-tapping*

NOTHING? Where does this NOTHING rubbish come from? Since he won his National title:

Worlds: 7th (strong-field) 8th (helped get back the 3 spots)
4CCs: 4th (his first ISU championship outing as a Sr!)
Grands Prix: two medals
Senior Bs: two golds
Nationals: bronze

That's not NOTHING. In fact, that's pretty flipping good.

(But thankyou for at least acknowledging his hard work and his niceness. So many people seem prepared to dismiss that.)

Max was already the best US man in 2012 . He just needs to land his quads at the Nationals to be on the top podium again.

No, Max was the best US man at the 2013 Championships. Just last year, people. Just last year.


I really think Joshua could be a dark horse. No-one's programs are as good as his pair, and there's no man in the US with a more beautiful or (usually) reliable jump technique. If he gets it together at Nationals and lands everything, he can win.

 

[gkelly]

What I was thinking more of was not necessarily promoting him as a hockey player on nbc or sending him to industry events but doing more grass roots kind of stuff like going to rinks and schools and teaching / talking to / inspiring little boys (and little girls who like hockey, geez how sexist am I?). Seriously, like the events they were doing in between stars on ice. Or having him on kids tv show - how great would that be (they could do that one with Jason as well).

Maybe they do use him this way already and I just don't know. USFS seems not to do things that seem logical to me, like really reaching out to include adult skaters as opposed to parents & kids only.

I don't think that USFS has much control over when/where/which skaters get on TV or make public appearances that are not directly connected with USFS-sponsored events.

Largely it comes from skaters receiving invitations from the producers/hosts of the events, often negotiated by agents who work for the individual skaters, not for US Figure Skating.

I don't even think USFS has much say in which skaters the TV networks choose to feature with fluff pieces, interviews, on-air promos, etc. That's up to the network.

The publicity material that they put out about Skate America, Nationals, and other USFS-sponsored events is in their control, as is who gets invited to Skate America and now the Salt Lake City senior B (or pro-ams, when those existed), and sent to other senior B and junior internationals. There is probably some negotiation with other federations about GP invites. They also put out a media guide that gives media outlets information about who the top skaters are that may inspire media to pursue a story about a given skater. They invite skaters to Champs Camp and to press conferences -- so including or leaving out out of those opportunities someone with borderline qualifications to be invited would affect their visibility. They choose who to feature in Skating magazine and probably have control over what gets covered on IceNetwork.

But something like a kid's TV show appearance would come from the skater's own management team, if they have one, not from the federation.

 

[Tavi...]

Maybe Brown cannot fully rotate his quad, as it happens with his triple axel now and then? I agree, no sense in putting a quad if it cannot be fully rotated (whether with a fall or not).



I have understood that Brown knew him only for a few months. It is certainly a shock, but as an excuse for not skating so well, it is not a good one, in my opinion.

That's an odd judgment to make - the impact someone has on your life isn't measured solely by the amount of time you've known him - it depends on the frequency, depth & quality of your interactions. Sometimes people have a deep & instant connection. Shep Goldberg was apparently a wonderful man who touched many lives, and he told no one he had a terminal illness until a week or so before his death. Jason himself said that week was really tough for him, characterized Goldberg as a mentor, and dedicated his FS performance at Rostelcom to him. So whether you yourself would have been affected the same way, the relationship clearly meant a lot to Jason, and impacted both his life and his competition.

 

[ice coverage]

... I like this idea. Mostly because of the utterly adorable mental image of Max surrounded by adorable little kids. ..

Just a sampling of the many existing photos of Max surrounded by adorable kids :

https://twitter.com/starsonice/status/457612986337591296 (Stars on Ice SkateFest -- 2014)

Article about the SkateFest event (with a quote from Max on page 2):

http://www.spotlightnews.com/news/2014/apr/23/stars-reach-out/?page=2​

https://www.facebook.com/IceDreamsT...47151952/10152365432916953/?type=3&permPage=1 (Ice Dreams Future Stars -- 2013)​

More Max pics with other kids from Ice Dreams: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10152365432761953.1073741831.358647151952&type=3​

... He was a developmental hockey player. He fractured his back. He came back from that & chose figure skating, not hockey (Why? Too much chance of reinjury in hockey, or cause he liked it better?)

... you have USFS launching a hockey program ...

One of the reasons that Max gave up competitive hockey is that he knew that he simply was not tall enough to succeed in the NHL. Some of his friends from the national developmental team do play in the NHL, and Max had the right stuff -- except the necessary height -- to potentially do the same.

Before breaking his back, he also had been scouted by Division I college hockey teams, including the University of Michigan (his father's alma mater), where Max dreamed of playing. But I think Division I college hockey became less realistic after his injury as well. Max has said that even now his back can be "funky," and that he has to be careful when bending over for everyday activities like picking up things from the floor.

After Max's recovery, his grandfather encouraged him to make a choice between skating vs. hockey and to devote himself to being the best at the one sport that he picked instead of juggling two sports at a high level.
For the reasons above, Max decided to go all out with skating.

BTW, what is the USFS hockey program?

Will come back later to respond to other comments in the thread. (Have not forgotten you, noskates. )

 

[Violet Bliss]

A lot of skaters could try doing one quad, and not in combination and do great. Max Aaron could likely do much better in his short with a 4S and 3L+3T rather than gamble on the 4S+3T he keeps doubling. There is a middle ground between quad crazy and no quad.

A solo non-Axel jump in the SP has to be preceded by footwork, which is why quads are rarer in SP. However, it seems tech panels tend to be lenient in this rule when the jump is a quad.

 

[ice coverage]

One more thing about Max Aaron and kids:

A year ago, he was on the cover of Jack and Jill, the popular children's magazine.
The corresponding article include lesser coverage of Sochi hopefuls from other sports as well. But Max was the focus of the article, and the entire magazine cover was devoted to Max.

https://www.facebook.com/jackandjil...=550F7D44&size=1219,1575&fbid=593394347376558 (Jack and Jill cover)
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Take+...he+skating+world+by+storm,+Max...-a0354576195 (article text)​

IIRC, one or more additional photos of Max were on the inside pages of the magazine along with the article. Can't find that link now ... will come back and add it if I find it again.​

ETA, this YT video shows the Jack and Jill article pages, IIRC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8QahDs8Nxs (I viewed it before, but it's not playing for me right now)​

 

[StitchMonkey]

A solo non-Axel jump in the SP has to be preceded by footwork, which is why quads are rarer in SP. However, it seems tech panels tend to be lenient in this rule when the jump is a quad.

I am having a hard time seeing that as unreasonable. Is putting footwork before a quad that much more difficult than an extra jump? I can't help but feel like footwork before jump is something they should be capable of and be doing, or at least practicing and figuring out. Even for a quad, it does not seem that unreasonable of a task to get some foot work before the quad. To me integrating the quad is as important and landing it. I am having trouble not feeling like the answer here is to go work on the footwork.

It would be one thing is they were really strict about it, but as you said, the panels are kinda lenient about this requirement.

Mathematically, a quad+double is really painful on the score. So much so I just don't think it is worth the risk unless you are hitting almost all the time. Maybe they will start rewarding it more, or maybe they don't want to, but right now doubling that 3T is really hurting scores. I enjoy seeing the 4S+2T, but not the scores.

 

[Violet Bliss]

I am having a hard time seeing that as unreasonable. Is putting footwork before a quad that much more difficult than an extra jump? I can't help but feel like footwork before jump is something they should be capable of and be doing, or at least practicing and figuring out. Even for a quad, it does not seem that unreasonable of a task to get some foot work before the quad. To me integrating the quad is as important and landing it. I am having trouble not feeling like the answer here is to go work on the footwork.

It would be one thing is they were really strict about it, but as you said, the panels are kinda lenient about this requirement.

Mathematically, a quad+double is really painful on the score. So much so I just don't think it is worth the risk unless you are hitting almost all the time. Maybe they will start rewarding it more, or maybe they don't want to, but right now doubling that 3T is really hurting scores. I enjoy seeing the 4S+2T, but not the scores.

Preceding step sequence into a jump is a required element in the SP because of its technical difficulty. It also earns GOE points as specified. The fact that almost all quad jumpers wait till they are able to do a quad combo before they include the jump in the SP indicates footwork entry as more difficult than a combo. Patrick Chan was the first to be fancy before a quad. Kurt Browning marveled at Chan's quad entry, commenting that all skaters, including himself, used to run straight through the length of the rink to build up speed before a quad.

eta. Sure quad+2T scores lower than quad+3T, but getting a quad in the SP is still worth more than any triple and then a 3+3 combo. i.e. 4+2+3 > 3+3+3 in COP math.

 

[gkelly]

The solo jump in the short program has long required preceding steps.

In the 80s it was a specified double jump, so something that all senior skaters could be expected to put steps before.

By the 1990s men had to do triples, and later ladies were allowed to. By the turn of the century men were allowed to do quads and ladies required to do triples.

IIRC, quads were first allowed in the SP in the 1999 season but had to be the solo jump. Most skaters who tried them did very few preceding steps but didn't take much of a deduction, as far as we could tell from 6.0 scoring. A couple years later quads were allowed in the jump combination and then we started seeing more skaters with quads doing them in the combo rather than solo.

Most skaters who do quads at all do seem to need a long preparation so it doesn't really work well as the solo jump in the SP.

In IJS, the technical panel just calls what jumps the skater actually does. The only time they have to worry about whether there were preceding steps is if the skater does not do a combination at all (usually because of a failed first jump of the intended combo) and the panel has to guess which jump was supposed to be the combination and which the solo jump.

It's the judges' responsibility to penalize long preparations to the solo jump in the GOE. For "No required steps/movement preceding jump" judges are supposed to reduce the GOE by -3 and the final GOE must be negative. For "Break between required steps/movements & jump/only one step/movement preceding jump" the reduction is -1 to -2 and the final GOE does not need to be negative.
It does seem that sometimes judges are overly lenient about this GOE reduction, especially when the jump in question is an otherwise good quad.

 

[Tahuu]

It's the judges' responsibility to penalize long preparations to the solo jump in the GOE. For "No required steps/movement preceding jump" judges are supposed to reduce the GOE by -3 and the final GOE must be negative. For "Break between required steps/movements & jump/only one step/movement preceding jump" the reduction is -1 to -2 and the final GOE does not need to be negative.

Hope Max will read this and not to skate straight by the board like in an airport runway to launch his quads.

 

[Mrs. P]

Tahuu, welcome to Golden Skate. Post often and post long!

 

[Tahuu]

Thanks Mrs. P! I enjoy reading yours and gkelly's posts. In last Nationals the Judges seemed intentionally push down Max's scores, especially in the LP, in order to send Jason to Sochi. I hope Max won't give them any excuse this time.

 

[Mrs. P]

Thanks Mrs. P! I enjoy reading yours and gkelly's posts. In last Nationals the Judges seemed intentionally push down Max's scores, especially in the LP, in order to send Jason to Sochi. I hope Max won't give them any excuse this time.

Having been there live -- Max was quite good and I think in any other Nationals that would have been enough to get on the Olympic team.

I don't think the powers that be had any reason -- at the time -- to push Jason for Sochi. After all he was in third behind two guys who did a quad in the SP. Honestly, had Jason not done that performance the way he did (not to mention Richard doing poorly afterwards), I think he would have been 3rd or 4th.

I do think the judges went a little +GOE and PCS crazy. I'm not sure if that was an 182 performance. When I saw it, I"m like, okay that will easily lead -- but I was thinking something along the line of 176, basically maybe a point or two above Max, due to his technical content.

Basically, that's how the short program went. The point difference was only 0.52 points Max won out on TES (47.17 v. 45.79), Jason on PCS (41.68 v. 39.78).

 

[Sandpiper]

Geez Sandpiper - lighten up. I never said you are a splat lover or a Jason hater - I didn't even imply it. I readily admit he has technical handicaps but that they aren't insurmountable. At this stage of his YOUNG career he's opted not to go for it and fall. Rostelecom is not a good representation of what Jason can do. He is a sensitive young man and he had just suffered a big shock and a loss. Go back and look at the end of his LP and he was crying!!! Not because he didn't do well but because he was impacted by what had happened. Did it cause him to not present a clean program? Who knows. But I believe it definitely had a big impact.

I don't know if he's going to be on a world podium. I don't know if he's going to win Nationals this year. But when I look at the men representing the US, he's the best skater out there from a totally whole package perspective. The only thing he doesn't have is the quad! He'll either get it or not. He's excited a lot of people in the US about figure skating and for that I'm grateful. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on him and I'm also not ready to anoint Max Aaron as the next best US man! He hasn't done much since he won Nats in 2012. MaX is a very sweet young man. I've met him and talked to him. I think he sincerely works hard and does the best he can. But I don't think he excites people about the sport the way that Jason does. I have no clue why not other than the charisma isn't there. (Oh Lord, Golden is going to come after me!!!! ) The bottom line is - in my heart of hearts I want whoever wins Nats this year to be a good representation of US figure skating and be competitive internationally. Right now.....I don't know who that's going to be!

"I don't know how anyone can say Jason has a technical block."--This is why your initial post sounded like you didn't acknowledge Jason's technical issues. There's no need go on a rant about falls and quads (punctuated by a half-dozen exclamation points) every time someone points out Jason's technical issues.

I'm hardly ready to announce Max Aaron as USA #1. As I've pointed out (on this very thread, I believe), Max struggles to do 4-3 cleanly, which just doesn't cut it for international standings. But on the other hand, there is some sense in supporting Max and politicking for his PCS, because the other Americans are even weaker in terms of tech (Jeremy and his lack of competitive nerve; Jason and his lack of big jumps--not just the quad, but also the quality on his other jumps, especially the triple axel; Josh and his struggle with injuries). There are plenty of things Max has to work on as well, of course: Spins, edgework (he skates fast, but lacks a bit of finesse), and getting into the character of his LP more. Not to mention consistency, but that goes for every single man competing at the moment.