State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

[R.D.]

What she showed today isn't typical of her recent form. If she continues to skate like this then, yes, we can say she has improved technically. All we can say is the pressure was off after the SP and she was able to do the 3/3 very well in the LP. Can she do it when a national title or a world medal is on the line?

Indeed. The million dollar question. We shall see...

Wagner's track record under pressure has been mediocre at best (although in fairness, not any worse than her American compatriots). I would not get hopes up too high...

 

[MK's Winter]

Well let's not get ahead of ourselves. What she showed today isn't typical of her recent form. If she continues to skate like this then, yes, we can say she has improved technically. All we can say is the pressure was off after the SP and she was able to do the 3/3 very well in the LP. Can she do it when a national title or a world medal is on the line?

I agree with you. Nationals will be very telling.

 

[R.D.]

Having said that, she WAS able to finally pull that pesky 3-3 off at a major event and that SHOULD be a big confidence-booster for her moving forward. US Nationals will be another chance to tinker around - if she skates to her capacity, only Gold would be able to challenge her, really.

ETA: If Wagner is 4th again...or she has to pull out of Nationals (injury/illness) - would she have a chance at the World team if she petitioned?

 

[samson]

Having said that, she WAS able to finally pull that pesky 3-3 off at a major event and that SHOULD be a big confidence-booster for her moving forward. US Nationals will be another chance to tinker around - if she skates to her capacity, only Gold would be able to challenge her, really.

ETA: If Wagner is 4th again...or she has to pull out of Nationals (injury/illness) - would she have a chance at the World team if she petitioned?

I've wondered about that too. Honestly I think the best way for US skating to feel confident they can secure three spots for Boston 2016 is by sending Ashley and Gracie to worlds together.

 

[AsadaFanBoy]

Congrats Ashley! With a ratified triple triple with +GOE. Woohoo!!!

 

[Sandpiper]

I've wondered about that too. Honestly I think the best way for US skating to feel confident they can secure three spots for Boston 2016 is by sending Ashley and Gracie to worlds together.

What's Gracie's state right now? Will she be able to skate at Nationals?

 

[R.D.]

What's Gracie's state right now? Will she be able to skate at Nationals?

Last I heard from Team Gold, they said they would take it one week at a time. She still has more than a month left, but may end up losing some valuable training time in the process. Coming in as defending champ won't help matters, either.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Congrats Ashley! With a ratified triple triple with +GOE. Woohoo!!!

Having watched the program again, I can say that is the best 3/3 I've ever seen her do, as the ratified ones last season didn't look all the way around to me. I didn't see the lutz at a good angle but if the take-off was correct it was probably the best lutz I've ever seen her do. The loop/salchow combo was also decent considering she has never tried it. Had she skated later I think her PCS might have better and put her over 130. Overall this program was a huge step in the right direction and I hope she can build on this. This is her ninth consecutive medal at a GP or GPF. For me, she has again earned her World spot regardless of what happens at Nationals. I don't think we can count on Polina, Mirai, or the others (outside Gracie) to give us a top 7 finish at Worlds to the extent we can rely on Ashley to do so.

 

[R.D.]

USFS article with some notable Wagner quotes below:

http://skatingmagazineblog.com/2014/12/13/2014-grand-prix-final-concludes/

(on free skate) I think that’s a personal best for me. The short program was not what I wanted to put out but that long program, there was a lot of pressure on it to be a good performance. It goes to show that I am capable of being competitive with these stronger technical skaters. My biggest challenge right now is becoming a consistent skater and I need to start putting out short program performances and long program performances like that every time.

...

This performance showed exactly what I’m capable of. This season has been full of great moments and not-so-great moments so the key to the second half the season is sweeping the not-so-great moments under the rug and bringing out two strong performances. That’s what these competitions are all about. I’m really pleased with today but I have a lot of work ahead of me.

...

(on her approach to today’s free skate). The great thing about being in last place is that you can’t get any worse than last place, you can only go up from there which definitely helps keep me calm. I think that I’m going to have to use this experience as a learning tool. I need to be able to skate that calmly and confidently at nationals when it really counts for something. It’s all a bonus here but I don’t want to miss out on going to worlds or getting that national title back because of the pressure that I put on myself.

(on executing a clean triple flip-triple toe) The good thing about keeping it together is that I had the (triple) loop-half loop-(triple) Salchow ahead so I knew the program wasn’t over yet. The great thing about that program is that the flip-toe and the loop-half loop-Salchow combination are really my two most difficult elements. The rest I have been doing for years and years and years. I can stay pretty calm throughout that program, it’s just two elements with a lot of stress.

(on triple loop-half loop-triple Salchow) That was my first time doing it in competition so there were some nerves and some lack of experience to go with it. It’s been in my program for a week before this competition. With more repetition, I’ll be able to get that confidence built up before nationals.

(on continuing to compete) People keep asking why I’m sticking around and I have so many people who are doubting if I’m capable of being competitive. This is the way I train at home, this is the skater I am. This is what I know I’m capable of and I know that if I allow myself to skate and train the way I know I can, I will be able to go up against the best in the world.

 

[Sandpiper]

For me, she has again earned her World spot regardless of what happens at Nationals. I don't think we can count on Polina, Mirai, or the others (outside Gracie) to give us a top 7 finish at Worlds to the extent we can rely on Ashley to do so.

I think Ashley will be at Worlds. The question is Gracie, and what state she'll be in after injury. If she shows up half-trained at Nationals, could she beat Polina and Mirai? (And if she doesn't, should she be sent to Worlds anyway?)

 

[noskates]

I'm so happy for Ashley. I hope that puts some of the criticism and doubt to rest. She CAN do it. Congratulations. Uhhhh - personally I think Gracie can beat Mirai any day of the week!!! Hopefully Polina will be over the yips and skate clean at Nats. In any case - it's going to be very interesting!

Again - really happy for Ashley.

 

[Sjs5572]

Based on Ashley's result, Gracie's talent, and the meltdown of two of the Russian babes, I actually think it's possible for the US to snag two medals at Worlds. I would definitely be surprised if the US doesn't get its first medal since Kimmie.

 

[rosacotton]

Based on Ashley's result, Gracie's talent, and the meltdown of two of the Russian babes, I actually think it's possible for the US to snag two medals at Worlds. I would definitely be surprised if the US doesn't get its first medal since Kimmie.

At this point in the season, who is emerging as top contenders for that World title? Are Ashley and Gracie among them, or more dark horses?

 

[humbaba]

Also, I noticed yesterday on twitter that USFSA is sending Hannah Miller, Olivia Serafini (won jr US Easterns), and Vivian Le (2014 us novice champ and jr mids champ) to a comp to get technical minimum needed for jr worlds. Happy to see that we will have plenty of jr ldies available for jr worlds.

Vivian, Hannah and Olivia finished 1,2 and 3 in the short at Bratislava. They all made the minimum SP TES for jr. worlds. Huste.tv has a replay of the ladies SP here: http://sport.huste.tv/clip/13-12-14-z-junior-ladies. Le starts at about the 49 minute mark and Miller and Serafini follow right after.

It looks like huste.tv might stream the free program which begins at 10:30 am EST, Sunday, December 14. Here's a link to their schedule: http://live.huste.tv/intro

 

[Sandpiper]

Based on Ashley's result, Gracie's talent, and the meltdown of two of the Russian babes, I actually think it's possible for the US to snag two medals at Worlds. I would definitely be surprised if the US doesn't get its first medal since Kimmie.

That's assuming 2/3 Russians melt down at Worlds. And assuming Gracie and Ashley don't melt down themselves, which is a big 'if' in Gracie's case especially. And assuming all the other girls are irrelevant.

(Two medals for the US is possible, of course. But so many other things are possible too.)

 

[Mrs. P]

No, not an insult. I'm actually referring to Ashley's competitors at this competition. To me they skate like juniors, are still immature and are quite young, hence JGPF. I have a dry sense of humor.

Ah I get it now.

 

[amc987]

I think Ashley will be at Worlds. The question is Gracie, and what state she'll be in after injury. If she shows up half-trained at Nationals, could she beat Polina and Mirai? (And if she doesn't, should she be sent to Worlds anyway?)

Ehh, I think the team will be Gracie, Ashley, and Polina again barring injuries. They're probably the 3 strongest ladies we have. Anyone who thinks Gracie and Ashley won't be on the team if healthy probably isn't being realistic.

 

[R.D.]

At this point in the season, who is emerging as top contenders for that World title? Are Ashley and Gracie among them, or more dark horses?

I wouldn't include any Americans in the title discussion, although:

Gold I'd peg as a dark horse for a medal ("in the hunt" so to speak). Not impossible for her to win although I still maintain that outside help might be necessary for that to happen (think Meissner '06)

Wagner needs her very best + outside help to factor in the medal mix.

No other US ladies are good enough.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think the GPF showed that it is very possible for Ashley or Gracie to sneak on to the podium. Only three Russians will be at Worlds, and the likelihood of all three skating perfectly isn't that high.

As far as title contenders, I think it will be one of Adelina, Liza, or Julia. I expect Elena will be on the world team so one of those three will be left off, but I don't think Elena has the maturity yet to take the title if either of the other Russian ladies on the team are clean.

 

[samson]

I think the GPF showed that it is very possible for Ashley or Gracie to sneak on to the podium. Only three Russians will be at Worlds, and the likelihood of all three skating perfectly isn't that high.

As far as title contenders, I think it will be one of Adelina, Liza, or Julia. I expect Elena will be on the world team so one of those three will be left off, but I don't think Elena has the maturity yet to take the title if either of the other Russian ladies on the team are clean.

Yeah I agree with this sentiment. I think it will be a Russian lady for sure I think Elena and Liza both have very strong, almost clear paths to the world team but I don't think this is Elena's year.