Maria, thank you for Tatsuki's quote and for posting the Worlds selection criteria. I must say it feels quite surreal to be looking over it now because I took his participation to Worlds for granted. He hasn't had such a bad competition since the 2012-2013 season and he seemed so confident at the start of the season so I guess that would explain my shock.
I didn't expect him to blame his performance on mental or physical problems. Such is the character of Japanese figure skaters. But I'm sad to read he basically thinks he's not good enough for the FP he prepared this season, because I still think he is. This right here is a hint at least part of the problem is mental - if he doesn't trust himself enough to do it, he'll never do it.
So what happened to last season's Tatsuki Machida? Regardless of scoring and what was wrong or right we have to think about the Worlds result and the consequences it had over him. Coming right after Sochi where he was 1.8 point away from the bronze medal and where all the attention went to Yuzuru and partly to Daisuke, he showed up at Saitama, at his first ever World Championship on home ice and he delivered. He faced his much younger compatriot and newly crowned Olympic Champion - who also had the experience of 2 other World Championships - and just like Sandpiper mentioned in her post, he performed 2 clean programs with 3 clean quads in what turned out to be the best battle for gold in years. He fought through his insecurities to win. I remember I watched the Japanese broadcast back then and they showed Tatsuki looking at a screen somewhere backstage, waiting for Yuzuru's score. No matter how happy he was with his performances and his first World medal, when the scores showed up, his face had a brief flash of astonishment and hurt. Base values and mathematics are meaningless when you skate the programs of your life and you are aware that may have been your only realistic chance at winning Worlds.
What happened after that? He got way more media attention than he was used to and I also have to mention the fact that he was invited to and skated at the same number of ice shows Yuzuru attended during the summer. He spent his time flying back and forth from Japan to the USA, mixing shows with the construction of his new programs. He dedicated his whole being to these new programs and kept them hidden until he was sure he could perform them the way he wished to. He said he built his free program based on his new capacities, based on his new found strength, so he believed he had what it took. Him hinting he's not good enough for it now is extremely saddening and plain unfair to him.
While his result at Skate America made me very happy for him, I was still worried he might have peaked too early. Based on his latest quotes ("I'm having bad thoughts", "I was desperate in practice" and "My condition is not good at all") I expected a sub par performance. But if he had to bomb a competition this season, in the end GPF is better than Nationals or Worlds. Aside from his team and his family, I think he needs to have a talk with Daisuke, as he is the one who often knows how to unveil the brilliance he is capable of.
