State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season
- Thread starter R.D.
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This. Really, unless Murakami/Miyahara shock us, it's an American/Russian podium or Russian sweep. I see the likelihood of Gracie/Ashley beating at least one of three Russians extremely high. Heck, Gracie can beat them all. Remember, Gracie tends to get better as the season progresses, and I doubt her injury is anything to worry about for Worlds in over three months.
This is true. I have to remember that we are more likely to be surprised than not.
I'm really curious to find out what Gracie's mental game will be like at Nationals this year. She has both the unsavory spot of first time national defense, but also she has this injury which could go a few ways. It sounds like it's minor enough that she's not going to lose a wild mount of training time for Nationals. This whole thing makes me think of Michelle in the lead up to Nagano. Ignoring a stress fracture led to a broken toe and a cast on Christmas. Yet it seem to be a blessing in disguise because when Nationals rolled around she gave herself permission not to feel any pressure it she delivered one of the most iconic and memorable performances in competition to date.
I think unless she really crumbles we're gonna have Gracie in the top three no doubt. My gut tells me Ashley will deliver. She seems to be getting stronger. I just wonder who that third will be. I know who I WANT it to be, but I'm not convinced any of the other US ladies have demonstrated a real sense of momentum out of the fall.
If Polina skates anything like she did a year ago I think USFSA would be very happy to see her on the podium.
I think Samantha Cesario could get that nod, but she would need to have two great nights and others to stumble.
Mirai is real good at flicking the switch when it comes to Nationals and I'm not ready to count her out. She's got a well known coach in her corner and she's going to come trained and I think ready to fight.
Courtney I think is tough. She hasn't really capitalized on her own opportunities, her jumps are really the only exciting thing about her. And when others falter she's a very strong 4th place skater, but she's not someone I think I really see as exciting to watch for a world team (Now watch the skating gods crown her National Champion this year cause I said that).
I think unless she really crumbles we're gonna have Gracie in the top three no doubt. My gut tells me Ashley will deliver. She seems to be getting stronger. I just wonder who that third will be. I know who I WANT it to be, but I'm not convinced any of the other US ladies have demonstrated a real sense of momentum out of the fall.
If Polina skates anything like she did a year ago I think USFSA would be very happy to see her on the podium.
I think Samantha Cesario could get that nod, but she would need to have two great nights and others to stumble.
Mirai is real good at flicking the switch when it comes to Nationals and I'm not ready to count her out. She's got a well known coach in her corner and she's going to come trained and I think ready to fight.
Courtney I think is tough. She hasn't really capitalized on her own opportunities, her jumps are really the only exciting thing about her. And when others falter she's a very strong 4th place skater, but she's not someone I think I really see as exciting to watch for a world team (Now watch the skating gods crown her National Champion this year cause I said that).
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- Feb 17, 2010
For sure. There isn't anything close to a "favorite" at this point, and I don't think Euros will do much to change that unless Liza or Elena skate particularly well.
However, Courtney has a great short program this year that capitalizes upon her "Tonya Hardinglike" quality. Also, the international judges seem to love her.
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- Dec 17, 2011
I don't think Wagner needs "other's help".At GPF, we saw she can earn points like Elizaveta's and Elena's PBs, I believe.And I also believe she will add something to her programs to get more points on presentation.
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- Nov 13, 2012
So true. Many a skater has been anointed World or Olympic champion - by skating fans - based on the early part of the season (why, sometimes even based on a summer competition!) - and then things have changed greatly come the second part. I for one am a Liza fan, but am certainly counting no chickens - it is better to take a competition at a time. I only know what has happened - and rejoice greatly at it - but what is to come.... who knows?
Not that there is anything wrong in speculation - so long as people are aware it is speculation. What I don't like is when a skater is hyped to the skies - and then, when they fail to deliver on that hype - are dropped like stones. I think that is... sad.
Meanwhile, on the subject of the thread - I'm glad that Ashley is continuing on. I like Ashley. And I like there to be different kinds of skaters, with different styles - it makes things more... fun.
Variatio delectat. If I had a motto - that would be it.
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- Jun 11, 2012
I think due to a lot of circumstantial evidence that the Russian ladies have some sort of mystique about them that they're invincible. If one doesn't perform there are 3 more that can step up. This last competition has proven that they're not invincible and someone who isn't considered a factor can come in and beat them. They may win out in the long run but Ashley has made it very interesting. And if Gracie is healthy - the bar has been raised yet again.
This. Also, the competition for those three Russian World spots starts very early in the season. How much energy will Liza, et al. have come March? The relative cakewalk for Ashley and Gracie may lead to a thrilling result in Shanghai.
That's an interesting point. While I admire Liza for competing all season long, there really isn't a down moment for her (or her competitors) between GPF and Worlds. Nationals is two weeks away (Christmas), Europeans is three weeks after than and then Worlds. There's only so many times you can be in peak shape.
On the other hand, I agree with others that there's no guarantee Ashley and Gracie will peak at Worlds either. Ashley has paced herself quite well, IMO, but ice is slippery. I hope both are careful not to eat anything weird (no Caesar salads for Ashley!)
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- Nov 16, 2005
Vivian Li shows such promise. Everything is there, the jumps, presentation. She even reminds me a little of Michelle Kwan. I hope she can make it to junior worlds. I hate to get too excited about junior skaters, but I like her.
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- Feb 27, 2012
You mean Vivian Le (not Li)
. Thank you for introducing her name to me.I see that Le won gold this past weekend at the junior event in Bratislava -- with decisive margins over Hannah Miller (whom I like) in total score and SP score.
Le won the FS too, even with a fall.
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- Nov 19, 2013
Liza has become one of my new favorites this year, I really hope she holds up through worlds and treats herself to a very nice tropical vacation afterwards! I really wouldn't be surprised if an American snuck on to the world podium. But, yeah, no produce, ice for drinks, or meat that isn't charred to a freakin' cinder for anyone of them while traveling
You know...can we keep this thread solely about the American ladies? There's a thread about the Russians already if you want to talk about them...
This thread should probably now shift more towards preliminary discussion and predictions on US Nationals. That said, after GPF, do you guys think Wagner has a good chance of getting the title back? Or is Gold too far ahead of her even with the injury? Which other lady claims the 3rd spot? This'll be a good one to look forward to...
This thread should probably now shift more towards preliminary discussion and predictions on US Nationals. That said, after GPF, do you guys think Wagner has a good chance of getting the title back? Or is Gold too far ahead of her even with the injury? Which other lady claims the 3rd spot? This'll be a good one to look forward to...
You mean Vivian Le (not Li)
I see that Le won gold this past weekend at the junior event in Bratislava -- with decisive margins over Hannah Miller (whom I like) in total score and SP score.
Le won the FS too, even with a fall.
It's worth noting that all three (Le, Miller and Serafini) were sent to meet TES standards for Junior World Championships, which they all did quite easily.
Obviously that means these three are candidates for the Jr. Worlds team. Hannah Miller has never competed Jr. Worlds. Due to injuries, she only did one JGP, where she fared poorly (she had the Jr. World TES minimums for the FS, but not the SP). She should had been sent, IMO in 2013, but was passed over for three skaters who finished above her at Sr. Nationals that year.
But one question: Did they not enforce the rule where you can't compete at the junior level after competing at the senior level? I had thought that rule was in place. Hannah had done two senior B's.
It will be interesting who they send this year. There are a ton of candidates. Le and Serafi are competing at the junior level. Bradie Tennell competed at one JGP event and is also skating junior nationally (She finished 2nd behind Le at Midwestern sectionals) Amber Glenn, Leah Keiser and Karen Chen competed on the JGP but are doing Sr. Ladies at Nationals. Tyler Pierce did not do JGP due to injuries but would also be eligible due to her solid JGP performances last season. And I guess Hannah Miller and Mariah Bell would likely be considered since they are within the age requirements.
Given that they were burned (i.e. losing JGP spots) by sending relatively inexperienced skaters to Jr. Worlds (Glenn, Chen and Pierce, who were all skating junior nationally), I think we might see them sending a senior-level skater like Hannah Miller along with two solid juniors. I also don't see them sending three Sr. Ladies unless their performances were absolutely amazing, i.e. top 6 result, but missing on the world team. So in that case, I could see a team of Miller, Chen and Glenn if they end up 4th, 5th, 6th for example. But I think I'd like them to send Le to get experience -- she seems to have the technical arsenal, a 3T-3T and a 3Z-3T (and a clean edge lutz at that; though she seems to be a borderline lipper) and is relatively young (she turns 15 in July 2015, but her birthday is after July 1 (July 30) so she won't be old enough for senior-level international competitions until 2016-2017).
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I think Ashley can take it. Just based on performances, she's done better than Gracie this season (Gracie's winning skate in NHK would not have won anywhere else--the only Russian she had to contend with was Alena Leonova, and Murakami + Miyahara both underperformed). I think the USFS would be pretty stupid to dump Ashley.
Third spot... I don't know. Mirai still hasn't fixed her UR problem, but Polina seems to be getting hit with edge calls on her flip and a few URs of her own. I wouldn't be surprised if neither of them make it.
Ashley with URs in the SP can get about 63, while a good FS like she did at the GPF can net her nearly 130 so I think she has a very good chance of getting her Nationals title back. Polina isn't invincible and has underperformed but she didn't have to prepare for the GPF before Nats so who knows how she will do. Mirai is not a lock for that #3 spot either, I'm actually hoping for Samantha Cesario to skate well and sneak in.
Rooting for Ashley to reclaim the title. If she can fix some of the spin level errors and hit most of her jumps like she did at the GPF, she might be able to do it. She tends to do better when she's got something to prove or coming from behind. With this being a non Olympic year, she may not have the psyche-out issues she had at last year's Nationals. I hope she keeps the same jump layout from the GPF as well since she now knows she can do it well. Her FS was so different from SC (where she was criticized for her lack of a 3-3) to the final where she had two of them! It will be interesting if she leaves both in for Nationals.
Gracie is a question mark - if she recovers from her injury and also doesn't let the pressure get to her, she could also keep her title. We'll see.
I'd love to see Mirai or Samantha get on the podium (I love both of their FS), but I think Courtney may wind up sneaking on the podium if she hits all her jumps. Possibly Karen Chen could be a spoiler as well. I like Polina, too, but she doesn't seem to have improved much PCS wise, and may be having growing pains.
Should be an interesting competition in a non Olympic year.
Will also check out Vivian Le
Gracie is a question mark - if she recovers from her injury and also doesn't let the pressure get to her, she could also keep her title. We'll see.
I'd love to see Mirai or Samantha get on the podium (I love both of their FS), but I think Courtney may wind up sneaking on the podium if she hits all her jumps. Possibly Karen Chen could be a spoiler as well. I like Polina, too, but she doesn't seem to have improved much PCS wise, and may be having growing pains.
Should be an interesting competition in a non Olympic year.
Will also check out Vivian Le
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