State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

[drivingmissdaisy]

I'd love to see Mirai or Samantha get on the podium (I love both of their FS), but I think Courtney may wind up sneaking on the podium if she hits all her jumps. Possibly Karen Chen could be a spoiler as well. I like Polina, too, but she doesn't seem to have improved much PCS wise, and may be having growing pains.

There is a big drop off in quality after Ashley/Gracie. My only hope is that the judges mark the competitors as an international panel would. If the judging is fair, a clean Courtney should finish third. I'd really like to see her change coaches because she is an example of a skater who does all the jumps, spins, and transitions and could be among the best in the world with a bit of refinement in her choreography.

 

[desertskates]

If I had to bet money on either Ashley or Gracie, I'd hedge my bets on Ashley. She's got momentum, confidence, a few new tricks. Gracie, though ridiculously talented, has had a handful of subpar programs, that title holder target on her back and now a minor injury. I do feel that they will go one and two, three will be eeenteresting.

 

[noidont]

US only has two spots for junior lady at WJC this year I think? Glenn and Chen are still the two strongest candidate, though neither is consistent and both are going through some sort of puberty problem. Junior worlds is going to have 3 Russian, 3 Japanese girls and Elizabet Turzynbaeva who can all place above Glenn and Chen. The Korean girl Dabin Choi is also very good. Getting that 3 spots back isn't going to be easy. If they want to get the spots for JGP and JWC back, Polina Edmunds can be sent to junior worlds. With the way things are going there is no given she is going to make the WC team.

Junior US ladies seem the most uninspired of the recent years. I'm not a fan of Karen. Her body type is too Caroline Zhang to hold those jumps in the long run. Amber Glenn seemed on the way to be Gracie No.2 but she has grown a bit too tall. Leah's beautiful with relatively big jumps but so so slow. Haven't seen Tyler Pierce and Vivian Le yet. In that protocol it seems Vivian Le can't do a loop or a salchow, which is problematic. I always like to see American junior ladies in the mix since they are very different from the Russian and Japanese schools.

 

[Mrs. P]

US only has two spots for junior lady at WJC this year I think? Glenn and Chen are still the two strongest candidate, though neither is consistent and both are going through some sort of puberty problem. Junior worlds is going to have 3 Russian, 3 Japanese girls and Elizabet Turzynbaeva who can all place above Glenn and Chen. The Korean girl Dabin Choi is also very good. Getting that 3 spots back isn't going to be easy. If they want to get the spots for JGP and JWC back, Polina Edmunds can be sent to junior worlds. With the way things are going there is no given she is going to make the WC team.

You're right. I knew they lost JGP spots but thought they did well enough for three spots.

Hm, Polina Edmunds as a Jr. Worlds candidate is an interesting one. She was screwed (as some argued) out of a spot in 2013 when they opted to send three senior girls instead.

Chen is the top candidate I think.

FWIW the SB of the JGP gals:

3 191.96 Serafima SAKHANOVICH RUS ISU JGP Ljubljana Cup 2014 30.08.2014
6 190.89 Evgenia MEDVEDEVA RUS ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2014/15 12.12.2014
11 178.09 Wakaba HIGUCHI JPN ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2014/15 12.12.2014
14 175.99 Maria SOTSKOVA RUS ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2014/15 12.12.2014
18 172.34 Yuka NAGAI JPN ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2014/15 12.12.2014
23 169.41 Karen CHEN USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2014 11.10.2014

She is sixth among all the JGP girls and that's with FS with mistakes. Her SB is higher than Turzynbaeva and Choi. I think Sakhanovich and Medvedeva are out of reach, but she certainly could sneak in with bronze with two good skates.

Amber Glenn has underperformend on the JGP, but she is capable of doing better. So I wouldn't object to Vivian Le going in her place.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I am in the camp of expecting Ashley to regain her national title.

Part of that is that I don't expect Gracie to compete. While I would expect her to have the all clear to train again before nationals, I don't know if she will have time to train up to the level she will likely want to be at for nationals. Especially with Ashely doing well at the GPF and upping her tech content, the minimum physical readiness needed for nationals has had it bar raised a bit I feel. I do expect her to get a medical bye to worlds though, and I don't think there is anything unreasonable about the above.

As for the podium and who goes to worlds. Ohh dear god who knows! I don't think Polina will be on the team. She had a rough season, it seems clear she has some stuff to work out. I am not writing her off completely, but I am not sure she is our strongest #3 at this point. In terms of the grand prix. Hicks is number 3, Nagasu is #4 and Cesario is is #5 for the season. Polina was the 6th. I am not sure there is a clear pick for sport three. My guess is that a lot of it will be who does best at nationals. I sadly could see Mirai getting third again and being left off again, though it will not have the same drama as last year.

 

[R.D.]

It seems tempting to pre-crown Wagner national champ (again) but I'm gonna hold off on that.

Many reasons to do so. Wagner is typically at her worst at Nationals.

I think Gold wins again, but not with a perfect skate(s). She will feel the pressure of defending champ and mess up, perhaps even fall once or twice - but will still pull off the victory due to Wagner also being sub-par. I think Gold will have some breathing room due to the SP...

I do think Wagner makes the team - and if she pulls out for whatever reason, I figure she will petition and be given the spot.

3rd spot will be decided among Hicks, Edmunds and Nagasu methinks. I assume one of those 3 will be the 3rd US lady...can't see it being anyone else. Cesario MAYBE if those three totally blow it.

 

[flying camel]

Ashley rarely skates well at US Nationals. So, I'm not looking for her to win. She may even be gifted onto the world team. Nationals seems to be the hardest competition of the season for her.

 

[R.D.]

Ashley rarely skates well at US Nationals. So, I'm not looking for her to win. She may even be gifted onto the world team. Nationals seems to be the hardest competition of the season for her.

^ to be fair, it is for most skaters. MK really was a freak of nature being able to peak at so many Nationals.

 

[Moxiejan]

Ashley rarely skates well at US Nationals. So, I'm not looking for her to win. She may even be gifted onto the world team. Nationals seems to be the hardest competition of the season for her.

"Gifted"? According to the selection criteria, Ashley has already earned a spot.

 

[StylishDreaming]

Ashley rarely skates well at US Nationals. So, I'm not looking for her to win. She may even be gifted onto the world team. Nationals seems to be the hardest competition of the season for her.

So you're assuming she'll come in fourth place again? Highly unlikely, given that the pressures of making the Olympics and defending her national title are off her shoulders, and that both Mirai and Polina have been underperforming this season.

 

[R.D.]

Well...just because Nagasu and Edmunds underperformed earlier in the season doesn't equate to them underperforming at Nationals, as longtime fans are well aware.

Nagasu has always been a late-season skater so I expect that to more or less play out (assuming no injury or illness)...not sure about Edmunds but based on last year, wouldn't say she's out of it yet. Who knows...

 

[StitchMonkey]

Well...just because Nagasu and Edmunds underperformed earlier in the season doesn't equate to them underperforming at Nationals, as longtime fans are well aware.

Nagasu has always been a late-season skater so I expect that to more or less play out (assuming no injury or illness)...not sure about Edmunds but based on last year, wouldn't say she's out of it yet. Who knows...

Edmunds had a good season last year and a good showing at nationals, this year not so much. I don't think she is a lost cause, I just think this is not her year. Nagasu could easily sneak in. I don't think she will beat Ashley, but I could see her on the podium especially if Gracie is not there. I just am not sure if I see Nagasu as having a clear advantage or likely to have a significant advantage over Hicks or Cesario. I think of those three the best set of skates will win.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Nagasu has always been a late-season skater so I expect that to more or less play out (assuming no injury or illness)

When do you think Mirai had a good late-season? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirai_Nagasu scroll down for results. The last three years her final competition results have been 10th, 7th, 7th.

Mirai won't be a factor unless the judges ignore < as they did last year for both her and Ashley.

 

[mustafakent]

USA should win 3 spots for Boston 2016 so that I think Ashley and Gracie have already won their spots no matter what. I want to see Cesario or Nagasu with them.

 

[chuckm]

For the first time, Nagasu failed to win a GP medal, or even a medal in a B event. That is not going to help her case at Nationals, if they again look at her recent record. Last year, after an 8th at NHK and bronze at COR, she placed 3rd at Nationals and was passed over for Sochi and Worlds in favor of Wagner, who had medaled at the GPF. A disheartened Mirai placed 10th at 2014 4CC; this season, she was 5th at 2014 US International Classic, 6th at 2014 SA and 4th in a depleted 2014 CoR field.

Her biggest competition may come from Courtney Hicks, who won the inaugural US International Classic and silver at the 2014 US International Classic and finished 4th in both of her GP events this season.

 

[StitchMonkey]

For the first time, Nagasu failed to win a GP medal, or even a medal in a B event. That is not going to help her case at Nationals, if they again look at her recent record

Small correction. First time since the 2009-2010 season that she did not win a GP medal. accuracy and all that

 

[rosacotton]

This thread should probably now shift more towards preliminary discussion and predictions on US Nationals. That said, after GPF, do you guys think Wagner has a good chance of getting the title back? Or is Gold too far ahead of her even with the injury? Which other lady claims the 3rd spot? This'll be a good one to look forward to...

I think the title is up for grabs. Ashley hasn't done very well at Nationals in the past. Polina has had issues with the short program. Gracie has struggled with nerves, will have additional pressure as the defending champion, and is coming back from injury. Any of the three I think could win if they are at their best and others falter.

Should be an exciting showdown!

 

[desertskates]

What I hope for is that nobody falters and we get a great show! Because it's all about us
I'm not totally writing Polina off yet, I think that her, Mirai, Sam, or Courtney all could be that third lady. Or second if Gracie and Ashley totally implode.
I need to start planning my snack and beverage menu now so I can have a totally "I love this stuff" weekend.

 

[Mrs. P]

What I hope for is that nobody falters and we get a great show! Because it's all about us
I'm not totally writing Polina off yet, I think that her, Mirai, Sam, or Courtney all could be that third lady. Or second if Gracie and Ashley totally implode.
I need to start planning my snack and beverage menu now so I can have a totally "I love this stuff" weekend.

OMG, what an awesome idea. What are you going to eat?! (Sorry, I like to eat.). Maybe I will make my Team USA whoopie pies again...(Last year I made it with Irish creme filling in honor of Jason's Riverdance...maybe I'll do something french in honor of Ashley's Moulin Rouge program?)

 

[R.D.]

When do you think Mirai had a good late-season? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirai_Nagasu scroll down for results. The last three years her final competition results have been 10th, 7th, 7th.

Mirai won't be a factor unless the judges ignore < as they did last year for both her and Ashley.

The point is that Nagasu's overall TREND tends to be upward throughout the season.

I suppose last year's 4CC is a fit counterexample, but typically she has a slow start and more or less gets better by Nationals, even if it still isn't good enough to get on the world team.

And, as for that last part - I will NEVER count Nagasu out.