State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

[drivingmissdaisy]

On paper, the USFS selection procedure for 2015 Worlds designates the same events for consideration as did the 2014 procedure (except for the year of the events, of course).
(The USFS media guide does not include the 2014 Olympics in the 2015 selection procedure.)

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...ps-Now-Known&p=1052123&viewfull=1#post1052123​

How exactly the criteria will be put into practice and/or affect the 2015 selection are unanswerable questions for now (and maybe forever).

IMO the process shouldn't change. Although some fans were unhappy last year, sending Ashley was the right decision. With Polina struggling a bit now, it is important to send two of our most reliable women to worlds to maintain 3 spots.

 

[MK's Winter]

IMO the process shouldn't change. Although some fans were unhappy last year, sending Ashley was the right decision. With Polina struggling a bit now, it is important to send two of our most reliable women to worlds to maintain 3 spots.

I agree with this. I was just curious to see if the USFSA was going the way of gymnastics, in a sense. I have been watching figure skating since the 80's and have always supported taking the top finishers, just on the basis that it has served us well in the past. With COP changing skating so rapidly I wondered if they would really focus on that selection criteria from now on.

I watched an episode of TSL where Jenny spoke about how they really had to put out a good short and long because 5 ladies could really fight for the third spot and they had to do it consistently because if you had a bad short program it would affect you more than it does now in the sense that there seem to be more of an allowance for mistakes . I hope I got this out right lol. Does any one else feel this way?

 

[chuckm]

But Ashley had a 'bad' SP at the GPF, even though her FS was one of her best ever. Luckily for her, two of the Russian ladies had disastrous free skates and that allowed her to make it onto the podium. If they had skated their best, she would have stayed in 5th place.

How is that different from Polina? At her GP events, Polina had bad SPs and very good frees. At NHK, Polina had a real nitpicker caller, while Ashley lucked out at the GPF with no edge or UR calls, unusual for her.

 

[Sandpiper]

But Ashley had a 'bad' SP at the GPF, even though her FS was one of her best ever. Luckily for her, two of the Russian ladies had disastrous free skates and that allowed her to make it onto the podium. If they had skated their best, she would have stayed in 5th place.

How is that different from Polina? At her GP events, Polina had bad SPs and very good frees. At NHK, Polina had a real nitpicker caller, while Ashley lucked out at the GPF with no edge or UR calls, unusual for her.

Regardless of how the others did, Ashley deserves credit for pulling off that LP. She could've just as easily bombed and stayed dead last; who's to say that if another American girl had been there, they wouldn't have done exactly that?

Whether you agree with it or not, Ashley can pull the necessary scores to challenge for the podium. At Cup of China, despite her strong LP, Polina wasn't able to move ahead of Lipnitskaya (who bombed) and Murakami (who was just shy of a bomb).

I wouldn't say Ashley 'lucked out' on the calls; she rotated the 3F-3T herself--the judges didn't do that for her.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

How is that different from Polina? At her GP events, Polina had bad SPs and very good frees. At NHK, Polina had a real nitpicker caller, while Ashley lucked out at the GPF with no edge or UR calls, unusual for her.

There is no comparison. Polina's two scores were ~160 whereas Ashley's three scores were consistently ~180. Twenty points can make a world of difference when it comes to Worlds placements.

 

[mnm464]

What about Ashley Cain? I think she has potential, but she isn't quite there yet. She has personality which can be cultivated and pretty good jumps.

 

[chuckm]

There is no comparison. Polina's two scores were ~160 whereas Ashley's three scores were consistently ~180. Twenty points can make a world of difference when it comes to Worlds placements.

That's because Polina doesn't get anywhere near the PCS scores Ashley does---Polina is a virtual newbie, and Ashley is a veteran. Just remember that two years ago Gracie wasn't getting the high PCS scores she's getting now, and Gracie struggled with consistency in the beginning just as much as Polina is struggling now, only most of Gracie's struggles were in the FS.

 

[R.D.]

^ Seems fair to me though. Wagner is in a totally different class performance-wise compared to Edmunds. Edmunds may be able to match (or surpass) in time, but as of now she will have to rely on the technical score to get ahead.

And - I am not counting Edmunds out. I think she is still very much in the game if she sorts out her SP issues. And even if she doesn't, and misses the team, there's always next season - she's young too.

 

[flying camel]

I love the underdog. I would like for someone to beat them all. Wake up the competition.

 

[silverlake22]

I still think Polina is in the number 3 position as of right now. Hicks has been scoring slightly higher in the FS this season, but she too often bombs the SP. And I think a clean Polina will score higher than a clean Courtney, and a clean Sam. As for Sam, she's been skating well all season like she always does, but her scores have not been that great either. She scores higher than Mirai, and higher than Polina as of late because of Polina's SP woes, but the URs and lack of speed and low spin levels have been limiting her scores to below the 180 mark. Mirai has done a good job staying on her feet but her scores are no longer competitive with the top even when she skates well. Her PCS are now in the 6s and she missed the podium at COR to the likes of Rika Hongo, meltdown Pogorilaya, and Alaine Chartrand. I wouldn't put her on the Worlds team unless she knocks it out of the park at Nationals and her jumps are clearly not URed. Whether it's fair or not, the intl judges will be watching her jumps like hawks.

I'd still say Polina is the strongest choice for the 3rd Worlds spot. I'd like to see Sam make the team, but it seems like the international judges just don't want to give her the scores she needs to break into the upper echelon of the elite. Polina has already scored 186 at Worlds so we know the judges are willing to reward her if she skates well.

 

[R.D.]

I'd like to see Sam [Cesario] make the team, but it seems like the international judges just don't want to give her the scores she needs to break into the upper echelon of the elite.

I don't think it's that so much as it is that Cesario just doesn't have the tricks to compete with the very best in the world. She is an entertaining skater to watch, but she does lag behind in difficulty of spins, etc.

 

[kwanatic]

I'd still say Polina is the strongest choice for the 3rd Worlds spot. I'd like to see Sam make the team, but it seems like the international judges just don't want to give her the scores she needs to break into the upper echelon of the elite. Polina has already scored 186 at Worlds so we know the judges are willing to reward her if she skates well.

I do agree that Polina is probably the best choice given the fact that she's the current silver medalist, but I don't think her chances are as great when you look at it internationally. She's been pretty awful this season in terms of building her international cred; all of the momentum she had from Sochi and worlds went out of the window because she kept tanking the SP. That said, she definitely has the technical content to challenge for that third spot, but I'm not too sure how great her chances are at making top 10 at worlds based on how she's been skating and also how the international judges score her.

Personally I feel like that third spot is a bit open at nationals this year. I feel like Courtney Hicks probably has a slight leg up on everybody else based on her scores this season. She struggled to have a clean SP but when she hits her jumps, she gets really good GOE. She's still kind of tankish in her presentation but I do think based on what she's done this season that if she has two strong skates they'll give her that third spot.

 

[R.D.]

IMO the process shouldn't change. Although some fans were unhappy last year, sending Ashley was the right decision.

Whether she deserved the trip or not aside, I still had serious issues with the way they attempted to "explain" their choice of Wagner. Was it so difficult to refer to their published criteria...or at least reference a few competitions Wagner did better in, as opposed to "body of work"? And there were conflicts of interest (sponsors) that were not disclosed. I can understand why people were upset, although it was completely wrong to go after Wagner for it. Must have clear guidelines/thought process. Having said all that, though, I do think it's about time they thought about something other than top 2 or 3 at Nationals every time. They just need to come up with an easy to understand, fair system for selection - or at least offer MUCH better explanations/justifications.

But that's beside the point...back to the upcoming nationals, remember that just because they struggled then...doesn't mean they'll struggle now. And conversely, just because they had a good start to the season doesn't mean it'll continue...

 

[concorde]

But that's beside the point...back to the upcoming nationals, remember that just because they struggled then...doesn't mean they'll struggle now. And conversely, just because they had a good start to the season doesn't mean it'll continue...

I think this posting is forgetting that.

All assignments (not just Worlds) are typically decided by the top finishers at Nationals. Last year was an exception - the "body of work" rule had been on the books for years and finally USFS decided to invoke it.

As one former US Champion told me, your entire upcoming year is completely dependent upon the ~10 minutes you skate at Nationals. If you skate great, you get the funding and assignments; if you don't, on well. Talk about pressure!

 

[carriecmu0503]

I think this posting is forgetting that.

All assignments (not just Worlds) are typically decided by the top finishers at Nationals. Last year was an exception - the "body of work" rule had been on the books for years and finally USFS decided to invoke it.

As one former US Champion told me, your entire upcoming year is completely dependent upon the ~10 minutes you skate at Nationals. If you skate great, you get the funding and assignments; if you don't, on well. Talk about pressure!

This used to be true under the 6.0 system. The funding part is still partially true. Funding is based on both international and national results. One cannot get top tier funding without winning nationals AND a top 10 performance at worlds, or meddling at Nationals AND a top 5 finish at worlds. However, since the inception of the IJS, performance at Nationals no longer has anything to do with who gets Grand Prix events (with the exception that national champions tend to get Skate America, and it can affect host picks for SA). The assignment of GP events mostly has to do with how people performed internationally the year before. International season's best, world ranking, top 12 finish at Worlds. This is how skaters like Nagasu could come in 7th at Nationals 2 years in a row and still get 2 GP assignments the next year- her international scores got them for her. In the 6.0 system, countries chose who to send to the GP based on Nationals assignments. This is no longer the case, as mandatory minimums, season's best scores, world ranking, and placement at worlds now largely determined who goes to Grand Prixs. However, your national ranking can get you a host pick or a senior B. I hope this makes sense!

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Whether she deserved the trip or not aside, I still had serious issues with the way they attempted to "explain" their choice of Wagner. Was it so difficult to refer to their published criteria...or at least reference a few competitions Wagner did better in, as opposed to "body of work"? And there were conflicts of interest (sponsors) that were not disclosed. I can understand why people were upset, although it was completely wrong to go after Wagner for it. Must have clear guidelines/thought process. Having said all that, though, I do think it's about time they thought about something other than top 2 or 3 at Nationals every time. They just need to come up with an easy to understand, fair system for selection - or at least offer MUCH better explanations/justifications.

But that's beside the point...back to the upcoming nationals, remember that just because they struggled then...doesn't mean they'll struggle now. And conversely, just because they had a good start to the season doesn't mean it'll continue...

I agree it was handled poorly. It would have been ideal to announce Ashley to the team prior to Nationals so that way the other women know they are competing for two spots. I think this would have been more palatable for the fans. It was hard to watch Mirai getting excited about her bronze medal and thinking she made the team when we all knew that she hadn't.

 

[MK's Winter]

I agree it was handled poorly. It would have been ideal to announce Ashley to the team prior to Nationals so that way the other women know they are competing for two spots. I think this would have been more palatable for the fans. It was hard to watch Mirai getting excited about her bronze medal and thinking she made the team when we all knew that she hadn't.

This. Leading up to Nationals NBC was billing Nationals as a trial and that was what upset me the most. Despite the athletes knowing the criteria it had to play head games with them as well.

 

[Gullygirl84]

I still think Polina is in the number 3 position as of right now. Hicks has been scoring slightly higher in the FS this season, but she too often bombs the SP. And I think a clean Polina will score higher than a clean Courtney, and a clean Sam. As for Sam, she's been skating well all season like she always does, but her scores have not been that great either. She scores higher than Mirai, and higher than Polina as of late because of Polina's SP woes, but the URs and lack of speed and low spin levels have been limiting her scores to below the 180 mark. Mirai has done a good job staying on her feet but her scores are no longer competitive with the top even when she skates well. Her PCS are now in the 6s and she missed the podium at COR to the likes of Rika Hongo, meltdown Pogorilaya, and Alaine Chartrand. I wouldn't put her on the Worlds team unless she knocks it out of the park at Nationals and her jumps are clearly not URed. Whether it's fair or not, the intl judges will be watching her jumps like hawks.

I'd still say Polina is the strongest choice for the 3rd Worlds spot. I'd like to see Sam make the team, but it seems like the international judges just don't want to give her the scores she needs to break into the upper echelon of the elite. Polina has already scored 186 at Worlds so we know the judges are willing to reward her if she skates well.

If I had to bet money, I agree that Polina still gets the 3rd spot. I have a hunch that she will do well in the SP at nationals, and be scored more generously in the LP as a result. Still, the race for the 3rd spot is tight-and if we judge Samantha, Mirai, and Polina by each of their most recent GP competition results, both Mirai and Polina scored slightly higher at COR and NHK than Samantha at TEB (Samatha obviously scored the highest GP result of the three at Skate America, but I feel like she got a few generous calls..though I'm not sure she shouldn't have gotten the bronze over Gracie). Mirai's 4th place finish in Russia scored higher than Polina's 4th place finish in China, and Mirai's 5th place finish at the US Classic also eeked out a higher score than Samatha's silver at Finlandia (obviously Mirai's underrotations are her downfall and will probably not be too drastically improved by nationals, but I'm just mentioning for what it's worth in terms of score comparisons. She also had the lowest GP result of the three at Skate America, where she would have been most likely to get a home court advantage if she had skated better. Mirai did not have a good season because it's the first time in a while that she didn't get a medal, but I still think it's closer than some people think). I'm suprised by how much more I like Courtney's skating this season.

 

[kwanatic]

I think it'd be really interesting if some of the new entries shake things up this season.

Karen Chen has amazing skating skills, speed and spins. Her jumps haven't been as reliable as they were a year ago but when she hits them, they're Yu-Na Kim-ish in their speed and attack. If by chance she has two strong programs, I could see her getting into that top 5 or even onto the podium.

Same thing for Amber Glenn. Amber hasn't had that great of a season. She's horribly inconsistent but she has the difficulty and presence to make her mark if she skates well.


I'd like to see some of the younger girls break through this year, but it's going to be interesting to see (1) if they can, and (2) if the judges will let them.

 

[mskater93]

If I had to bet money, I agree that Polina still gets the 3rd spot. I have a hunch that she will do well in the SP at nationals, and be scored more generously in the LP as a result. Still, the race for the 3rd spot is tight-and if we judge Samantha, Mirai, and Polina by each of their most recent GP competition results, both Mirai and Polina scored slightly higher at COR and NHK than Samantha at TEB (Samatha obviously scored the highest GP result of the three at Skate America, but I feel like she got a few generous calls..though I'm not sure she shouldn't have gotten the bronze over Gracie). Mirai's 4th place finish in Russia scored higher than Polina's 4th place finish in China, and Mirai's 5th place finish at the US Classic also eeked out a higher score than Samatha's silver at Finlandia (obviously Mirai's underrotations are her downfall and will probably not be too drastically improved by nationals, but I'm just mentioning for what it's worth in terms of score comparisons. She also had the lowest GP result of the three at Skate America, where she would have been most likely to get a home court advantage if she had skated better. Mirai did not have a good season because it's the first time in a while that she didn't get a medal, but I still think it's closer than some people think). I'm suprised by how much more I like Courtney's skating this season.

Sorry, I was in the rink at SA and Cesario didn't deserve third over Gold based on the overall skating I saw between the two, even with the mistakes/less mistakes. Gold is CLEARLY better on the 2nd mark other than IN and presentation (not necessarily the execution piece of PE though) and has "better" content (ie deserving better GOE).

Nagasu is no where as close as so many people hope unless she makes a drastic improvement from where she was technically during the GP season. Many jumps were still clearly < and with a tough tech panel could be << and unless a miracle happens, she's going to get hit with < and << calls.

Edmunds' programs are a step back in construction and flow from last year. She's got a lot of jump telegraphing going on and she doesn't fly down the ice like Kostner; in fact she's looked pretty tentative in her outings with regard to speed and buy in of program construction.

I think with what we've seen, it's going to be a fight for the third spot but I'd say it's likely Hicks, even if she makes mistakes, because she's got "better" content than the other choices right now.

Even if Chen ends up on the podium, she's not going to Worlds, she's too young with the age changes this year.

Glenn is going to get held down based on her inconsistency and her inability to deliver a clean program.

Glenn