State of the U.S. Men's Figure Skating for 2014-15

[ice coverage]

Second update of the day re Richard Dornbush's mother (with additional detail):

Dornbush is even happier to report that his mother, Shelley, is on the mend after spending about a week and a half at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles suffering from what was eventually diagnosed as typhus.
"The people at Cedars-Sinai did a great job, and we are all super grateful," he said. "She is doing much better; she is back home. She has the support of the whole community. She is very involved in her church, and several church groups are taking good care of her, as well as my dad (Richard)."
While Dornbush's parents are unable to attend the U.S. championships, his maternal grandparents will be in Greensboro to cheer him on.

http://www.icenetwork.com/news/2015/01/21/107030320 (Jan 21, from Lynn Rutherford)​

 

[Eloyse]

I'd rather see a clean program without quads from Jason. A failed quad jump has less points than a high quality 3A. Jason should probably work more on his 3A though, because sometimes his 3As look a little UR:scratch:

 

[cruzceleste]

I'd rather see a clean program without quads from Jason. A failed quad jump has less points than a high quality 3A. Jason should probably work more on his 3A though, because sometimes his 3As look a little UR:scratch:

If Jason rotate the jump it will be rewarded.

I don't understand what appears to be a concern that Jason is "getting away" with something if he doesn't "even try" a quad.


If a skater lands the quad, great, lots of points. If a skater tries a quad and truly bombs it, no points and maybe he's injured. So every skater has to consider those factors.

Jason is skating in the way he thinks will get him the most points. As is, I am sure, Jeremy, Max, Ricky, Adam and all the other men. You may not agree with his point strategy, and his point strategy may fail, but he is not "getting away" with anything.

I don´t think Jason is getting away with out a quad, because is still to be seem if he can win with out the quad.

Even Chen is trying quads. He said he is trying 3 quads in his free. So is going to be interesting to see if Jason PSC can fight the TES of other men with quads.

 

[cruzceleste]

Second update of the day re Richard Dornbush's mother (with additional detail):

Dornbush is even happier to report that his mother, Shelley, is on the mend after spending about a week and a half at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles suffering from what was eventually diagnosed as typhus.
"The people at Cedars-Sinai did a great job, and we are all super grateful," he said. "She is doing much better; she is back home. She has the support of the whole community. She is very involved in her church, and several church groups are taking good care of her, as well as my dad (Richard)."
While Dornbush's parents are unable to attend the U.S. championships, his maternal grandparents will be in Greensboro to cheer him on.

http://www.icenetwork.com/news/2015/01/21/107030320 (Jan 21, from Lynn Rutherford)​

This is great news . Thank you for sharing

 

[Mrs. P]

If Jason rotate the jump it will be rewarded.



I don´t think Jason is getting away with out a quad, because is still to be seem if he can win with out the quad.

Even Chen is trying quads. He said he is trying 3 quads in his free. So is going to be interesting to see if Jason PSC can fight the TES of other men with quads.

It's not just PCS that would help Jason. He has his 3A, 3F-3T and a 3Z-1L-3S in the second half of the program. Plus level 4 everything.

Chen is trying quads, but may not have an 3As, so it remains to be seen how much of an advantage he'll have over Jason.

 

[cruzceleste]

It's not just PCS that would help Jason. He has his 3A, 3F-3T and a 3Z-1L-3S in the second half of the program. Plus level 4 everything.

Chen is trying quads, but may not have an 3As, so it remains to be seen how much of an advantage he'll have over Jason.

Still, it will be interesting

 

[Mrs. P]

Still, it will be interesting

That I agree on.

 

[TontoK]

It's not just PCS that would help Jason. He has his 3A, 3F-3T and a 3Z-1L-3S in the second half of the program. Plus level 4 everything.

Chen is trying quads, but may not have an 3As, so it remains to be seen how much of an advantage he'll have over Jason.

Barring mass meltdown and poor programs... and let's be honest, that's a possibility... I don't think this is Nathan's year. YET.

But he is definitely serving notice if he executes his program as planned.

According to reports, there seem to be a lot of clean quads being landed at practice. We'll see if they show up on game day.

 

[katmari]

It's not just PCS that would help Jason. He has his 3A, 3F-3T and a 3Z-1L-3S in the second half of the program. Plus level 4 everything.

According to this tweet, Jason has also moved both his double axels to the end of the program:

Sylvia @SylviaUnseen
“@LynnRutherford: @irokdamic [coach Kori Ade] says @jasonbskates moved 2Axel at start of FS, to end & now does 2A2A sequence.” #NC2015
10:25 AM - 21 Jan 2015

How many points is he gaining doing it this way versus the original layout?

 

[cruzceleste]

I will like to USA men to get their queads, maybe if they get more competitive it will become interesting again. It have become kind of boring since Evan and Johnny aren´t fighting with each other.

Have seem media cover for Ashley vrs. Gracie, but very little about the men, except for Icenetwork.

 

[Mrs. P]

According to this tweet, Jason has also moved both his double axels to the end of the program:

Sylvia @SylviaUnseen
“@LynnRutherford: @irokdamic [coach Kori Ade] says @jasonbskates moved 2Axel at start of FS, to end & now does 2A2A sequence.” #NC2015
10:25 AM - 21 Jan 2015

How many points is he gaining doing it this way versus the original layout?

So what is he doing as his second jumping pass instead?


Originally, he was doing
3A-2T 9.8
2A 3.3
3Z 6
===
18.8




The Skate America second half was

3Lo 5.61
3A - 9.35
3F-3T 10.34
3Z- 6.6
2A- 3.63
==
33.53 (52.33 jump BV)

At Rostelcom he did

3Lo 5.61
3A 9.35
3F-3T 10.34
3Z-1L-3S 11.77
2A 3.63
==
40.7 (59.5 jump BV)

HIs Nationals layout

3Lo 5.61
3A 9.35
3F-3T -10.34
3Z-1L-3S 11.77
2A-2A 5.08 (70 percent for SEQ)
==
42.15

So, add that to the 3A-2T (9.80) and 3Z (6) The total so far is 57.95, which is already more than 5 points higher than his original BV. Maybe he would do a 2F since that's his money jump? That's worth 1.8 points, bringing the total to 59.75, which is slightly higher than his Rostelecom BV jump value.

 

[Scovies]

Mrs. P, aren't sequences worth 80%, not 70? A 2A sequence in the second half should be 5.81.

Yay, more points!

 

[katmari]

Thanks for the detailed breakdown, Mrs. P!

 

[Jammers]

I will like to USA men to get their queads, maybe if they get more competitive it will become interesting again. It have become kind of boring since Evan and Johnny aren´t fighting with each other.

Have seem media cover for Ashley vrs. Gracie, but very little about the men, except for Icenetwork.

Unless the US Men start landing or even trying the quad we will continue to be on the outside looking in at the big international events. Just look at skaters like Kotvun and Voronov they are inferior skaters in many areas compared to a Jeremy and Jason but they can land quads so they are finishing higher despite lacking great skating skills. It might take someone like Nathan to pull it all together and become a real threat. The fact he can do quads despite injuries and growth spurts is encouraging. Now he just needs to get the 3axel.

 

[karne]

I will like to USA men to get their queads, maybe if they get more competitive it will become interesting again. It have become kind of boring since Evan and Johnny aren´t fighting with each other..

Excuse me, but there is an American man with a quad.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Something is wrong with the jump layout you guys are quoting for Jason. That would be 4 combinations. He has to do a Triple Axel in combination.

He's probably trying to open with 3Axel+3Toe and doesn't do the 3Flip in combination in the second half of the program, trying to get more points from 2Axel+2Axel sequence.

However, unless he's now going for the Quad, that wouldn't make sense either. He'd have to do a planned Double Lutz somewhere in the program. All of those changes would actually make his base value LOWER and it's much riskier too, hinging on hitting the 3Axel+3Toe at the start. Doesn't make any sense.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Something is wrong with the jump layout you guys are quoting for Jason. That would be 4 combinations. He has to do a Triple Axel in combination.

He's probably trying to open with 3Axel+3Toe and doesn't do the 3Flip in combination in the second half of the program, trying to get more points from 2Axel+2Axel sequence.

However, unless he's now going for the Quad, that wouldn't make sense either. He'd have to do a planned Double Lutz somewhere in the program. All of those changes would be worth barely any extra and it's much riskier, hinging on hitting the 3Axel+3Toe at the start.

Tin foil hat time.

They are thinking of doing the 4S soon enough they want to fit it in the program so to speak. If he wants to do a 4S, but triples it, he would either have to do a 1/2 2s combo, or adjust some other repeated triple to allow for a second 3S or maybe do a flip after the 1/2 loop. Anyway. I could see if the 4S is a maybe, wanting to get rid of the 3S to reduce the chance of Zayaking. Smart move really.

The thing is as of the press conference he was planning to do two triple/triple passes in the second half. So maybe his 2a+2a is his sequence, and he is doing two other jumps with +3T at the end.

 

[Scovies]

Tin foil hat time.

They are thinking of doing the 4S soon enough they want to fit it in the program so to speak. If he wants to do a 4S, but triples it, he would either have to do a 1/2 2s combo, or adjust some other repeated triple to allow for a second 3S or maybe do a flip after the 1/2 loop. Anyway. I could see if the 4S is a maybe, wanting to get rid of the 3S to reduce the chance of Zayaking. Smart move really.

The thing is as of the press conference he was planning to do two triple/triple passes in the second half. So maybe his 2a+2a is his sequence, and he is doing two other jumps with +3T at the end.

I'm not sure why he would waste one of his repeated triples on a 3T, though. He'd have to take out one of his lutzes or one of his 3As, and that wouldn't help him. He already has two triple/triples in the second half, with the 3F-3T and 3Lz-1Lo-3S.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I'm not sure why he would waste one of his repeated triples on a 3T, though. He'd have to take out one of his lutzes or one of his 3As, and that wouldn't help him. He already has two triple/triples in the second half, with the 3F-3T and 3Lz-1Lo-3S.

Bah your right. . . i have it in my head they always do that. . . . i don't know where I get it. I have it stuck in my head the 3T is always one of the repeated triples as it can be tacked on, I don't know where I get it.

I still think it is possible the 1/2 loop + 3S might be going away and being replaced with the 2A+2A though I am not sure how it would work. How often do we see two sequences?

 

[Scovies]

Bah your right. . . i have it in my head they always do that. . . . i don't know where I get it. I have it stuck in my head the 3T is always one of the repeated triples as it can be tacked on, I don't know where I get it.

I still think it is possible the 1/2 loop + 3S might be going away and being replaced with the 2A+2A though I am not sure how it would work. How often do we see two sequences?

I don't think the 3Z-1Lo-3s is going anywhere; his second lutz has to be in a combination for it to count.

Maybe they misunderstood Kori, and he's just moving the first 2A to the second half? I can't understand why he would add a 2A+2A sequence, because it would have to replace one of his other combos -- all of which earn more points.