State of the U.S. Men's Figure Skating for 2014-15

[TontoK]

I just realized that yes, these are pre-4CC rankings. However, I don't think they will change much as far as order. Adam, who is some 520 points behind, would have to win medal 4CC and Jason would have to bomb or end up WD to pass him mathematically.

4CC migh however give some points so Adam and/or Josh won't have to go so early. But of course, it might be tough to pass people cause they will get points from 4CC/Euros as well.

Thank you. I wasn't intending to imply that they would pass Jason... just questioning if they could improve their prospects in terms of start order. It sounds as though they might... but not guarantees as the ones they have to pass are also in Continental championships.

 

[TMC]

This tweet by a twitter acquaintance got me thinking today:

"I know that Jason is like the ideal son,etc but I'm genuinely surprised the federation supports a quadless skater"

I can see where they're coming from, I understand the confusion. But when I think about it from an interest/development/marketing point of view, I have to think that USFSA is actually doing the clever thing this time:

After Riverdance and its gazllion views, there was a lot of talk about how USFSA would be stupid not to use that to their advantage. I believe that Jason singlehandedly brought back many, many fans who had dropped out because of various reasons, and also brought in new fans. Here was a kid who, with his team, had learned to play the COP-game better than almost anyone else at the moment: backloaded, quality elements, crazy transitions and touching routines -> as many points as possible without a quad. That the kid is just adorable was a huge bonus.

So we have a kid who is bringing in not only old and new fans maybe even around the world (=cash), and new kid skaters to USFSA (=more cash).

Many, many people (myself partly included) went off fs when it became almost the norm to medal with falls over clean programs. Ordinary people do not get how an underrotation - which is often very hard to spot and doesn't affect the program as a whole too much - is punished so harshly compared to (in their minds) a huge mistake like a rotated fall. By ordinary people I mean those who maybe used to watch during 6.0, when a fall was almost a 90% guarantee of no medal at all, and 99% of no gold. And it appears that the more quads in programs, the more likely those mistakes are, not only on the quads but other jump elements as well. Quads are so draining that this is almost inevitable.

There will most likely always be people who will always be convinced that any win without a quad jump attempt is, to them, invalid.
I've developed the impression that there are two types of viewers: those who don't really mind even big and multiple mistakes and can look past them and enjoy the performance notwithstanding, and those that feel that the glaring mistakes deflate the tech quality, performance and their enjoyment of it significantly. Regarding falls it's like the first group appreciates the athletic difficulty and is willing to reward even fully failed attempts, and the 2nd group, while also appreciating the athletic difficulty, finds it hard to consider an element "partly" successful and worth a lot of points if it ends in a fall. In terms of high jumping, the first group sees that the athlete got over the bar, and it doesn't matter that much that the bar wobbles and falls. The second group sees the bar fall and thinks that the jump was unsuccessful and should not be considered as though the bar had in fact been 10 centimeters lower and the jumper had cleared it. The first group consists mainly of fs fans, the second of fs fans and casual viewers and potential viewers.

The challenge here is to please both sides while at the same time increase interest in the sport and attract young athletes.

So when you think about the popularity and the longevity (heck, actual survival) of the sport as something other than a niche/four-year curiosity, supporting Jason makes an awful lot of sense.

Now the US has - thanks to quads - 3 spots for Worlds.

2/3 of those spots went to men who have quads. Only 1/3 went to one who doesn't. That means that most of the competitors in the team have a quad, and the one that doesn't has good-to-excellent consistency and bucketloads of charisma which will reach people even through their screens. I'm absolutely not saying that Adam and Josh do not have charisma - they certainly do. I just feel that Jason and some of his programs possess the kind of crossover charisma that will not only delight fs fans and casual watchers - it will delight people who don't normally care about fs at all. This manifested in the never-before-seen virality of that one clip on youtube. I believe that all three have the ability to bring in completely new fans, but that in Jason this ability appears to be the strongest.

To my mind this is the ideal scenario for both maximising medal chances and upping the popularity of the sport.

Adam and Josh have the goods, but the delivery is not 100% guaranteed. Jason has different goods and there's a good-to-excellent chance that he will deliver, if not in both then in one skate at least.

So the best case scenario for USFSA is as follows:

1) Adam rotates and lands both quad Lutzes and does everything else cleanly. He has an excellent chance of medalling if that happens (that LP is a masterpiece)
2) Josh does a pristine clean (quadless?) short with +3s for the Axel, putting him in the final flight where he lands his quad toe. He also has a chance of medalling if he truly goes squeaky clean (That LP is also awesome)
3) Jason goes as clean as he possibly can and doesn't forget to pack the springs he wore on his feet at Nationals. He gets the crowd going and is rewarded with great PCS, possibly even good enough to get him in the final flight as well. And even if he ends lower, his LP in turn is a huge crowd-pleaser, meaning he could get very decent scores even in the next-to-last flight.

-> All 3 men in the top 12, one possibly even medalling.

4) Other top contenders make multiple mistakes

-> All 3 men in the top 10, one or even two medalling.

Obviously this is the absolute ideal situation

So the way I see it, USFSA is covering all the bases:
a) Send in the quads to keep 3 spots and potentially medal,
b) Send in the consistency to ensure 2-3 spots even if one or both quads headcase.
c) Give the young ones experience and a chance to make their mark (especially applying to Josh)
d) Nurture the potentially growing interest in FS in the US

What do you think?

 

[Tavi...]

I, for one, said nothing about quads in my post. I also didn't say I thought Jason would do poorly. I agree that his consistency is an asset.

So, why do I give the placement edge to Josh and Adam at World's? Here's why:

Jason skated his LP at Nationals about as well as one could expect. It was only good enough for a (virtual) third placement at his own Nationals, losing to two well-skated but flawed programs. NOTE: the paragraph discounts the zayak issue for Josh... his program would have beaten Jason's.

In the course of the event, Jason had one mistake... two-footing that 3A. He barely won over the other two guys who had downgrade jumps, missed spin levels, jump fall-outs/turn-outs, a zayak, jumping points left on the table...

I don't think Jason can skate much better than what he did... but I think Josh and Adam can skate a LOT better.

Edit: spelling

I actually disagree with you that Jason can't do better than he did, specifically in the FS. He did an absolutely stellar job with the SP. It's not one I love, but on Friday, for the first time this season, I felt like he was dancing with it as much as he did with Prince last year. He added more difficult choreography, and his jumps were super. I don't think he delivered at quite the same level in the FS. Why? Well, he changed the layout & added new choreography here, too, and I just don't think he has mastered it yet. Some of the movements were still just...movements. More importantly, last night Jason was skating under incredible pressure-both his own and the federations. He wasn't just expected to do well, he was expected to win, and to outperform what he did last year. His picture has been all over USFS advertising all year. So he really had to deliver. And he did. But I think in focusing on doing a clean program he lost some of the emotional quality that is at the heart of this piece. I know he can and will of these things better.

Adam and Josh both skated brilliantly, but they were not performing under the great weight of expectations placed on Jason.

 

[GGFan]

TMC, I think that's a very nuanced and balanced perspective. I also think it's the most coherent strategy we've had in years.

I would like to add that the quad argument needs to be put to rest by the ISU by making it a required element. I feel bad for skaters who rightfully use the rules as they are written and are then criticized for being strategic. That's a rules issue not a competitors issue.

 

[Mrs. P]

TMC, I think that's a very nuanced and balanced perspective. I also think it's the most coherent strategy we've had in years.

I would like to add that the quad argument needs to be put to rest by the ISU by making it a required element. I feel bad for skaters who rightfully use the rules as they are written and are then criticized for being strategic. That's a rules issue not a competitors issue.

My husband told me yesterday something his parents used to tell him when he was in high school/college and was complaining about a teacher or their approach to testing/grading. His parents told him: What you need to do if figure out what they credit (and what they don't) and figure out how you can score the best grade under those parameters.

IN that spirit, Jason and his team have figured out what IJS rewards and what it doesn't and figures out how to use his existing skill set to get the maximum score possible. It is not his fault that he manages to score well enough to win GP medals, or now, be a national champion.

The ISU is unlikely to make the quad a required element, in the immediate future (i.e. this quad) because not enough skaters do it consistently. Forget Jason, there's a whole slew of skaters from smaller federations who would likely be ineligible for competitions if a quad jump was a requirements. That said, it might be in the years to come.

 

[Tavi...]

TMC, I think that's a very nuanced and balanced perspective. I also think it's the most coherent strategy we've had in years.

I would like to add that the quad argument needs to be put to rest by the ISU by making it a required element. I feel bad for skaters who rightfully use the rules as they are written and are then criticized for being strategic. That's a rules issue not a competitors issue.

I disagree that a quad be mandatory for the same reason Mrs P identified. Not many people do them well

 

[noskates]

I think it would be a travesty if the ISU made the quad mandatory. And I agree with Mrs. P's post. You can pontificate all you want about how Josh should have or could have won, or Adam could have or would have won BUT THEY DIDN'T!!! I love Adam and I'm very happy he medalled - he needed that for self-confidence. But that's the best program I've seen him skate in years and I don't have confidence it's going to be an "every time" thing for him. Given that, the chances of him besting Jason consistently are pretty remote unless or until he gets over the yips when he competes. Josh. Beautiful skater but he, too, isn't always consistent. I think Kori Ade's strategy for Jason is less in the moment and more in the future. I think he's come along more quickly than his team imagined. She said this past week that she'll put the quad in his routine when it's consistent so as not to destroy his confidence. I can't help but wish other coaches had that same attitude so we wouldn't have to see under rotated and splats from the quad attempts. I think unless done perfectly they absolutely ruin a program!!!

 

[TMC]

I disagree that a quad be mandatory for the same reason Mrs P identified. Not many people do them well

Me too, for the same reasons.

Imagine how many wonderful programs from the past 12 months wouldn't have been if the quad was a requirement.

The Men's final in the Sochi Olympics for instance.

There would have been less countries represented.
Jason would not have been there at all. Misha Ge would have had to stay home. Javier Raya wouldn't have been able to gain experience.
That would have been sad, although of course we wouldn't have known it, because those programs wouldn't have been created in the first place. Some skaters would have quit when they hadn't got a quad and were aaging out of juniors. Others would have rushed the training and potentially injured themselves. Others would have persisted, but because quads are hard, they would have been forced to include them even with like a 10% success rate. So the splatting would have been even more universal.

(I also count Misha Ge as one of those who already have brought in new fans and have huge potential to gain even more)

 

[Mrs. P]

I think it would be a travesty if the ISU made the quad mandatory. And I agree with Mrs. P's post. You can pontificate all you want about how Josh should have or could have won, or Adam could have or would have won BUT THEY DIDN'T!!! I love Adam and I'm very happy he medalled - he needed that for self-confidence. But that's the best program I've seen him skate in years and I don't have confidence it's going to be an "every time" thing for him. Given that, the chances of him besting Jason consistently are pretty remote unless or until he gets over the yips when he competes. Josh. Beautiful skater but he, too, isn't always consistent. I think Kori Ade's strategy for Jason is less in the moment and more in the future. I think he's come along more quickly than his team imagined. She said this past week that she'll put the quad in his routine when it's consistent so as not to destroy his confidence. I can't help but wish other coaches had that same attitude so we wouldn't have to see under rotated and splats from the quad attempts. I think unless done perfectly they absolutely ruin a program!!!

When Josh is not injured, he does quite well and has beaten Jason on several occasions. The last time that happened, of course, was 2013 Jr. Worlds. Though that was actually a pretty close competition with Josh winning overall and SP and Jason winning the FS (and Shotaro Omori winning bronze. So sad tho see him do so poorly at Nationals).

Josh has been struck with a number of injuries and also has the additional challenge of having several food allergies that could wreak havoc at competitions. So Josh really had a late start in his senior international career cause of this. But now that Josh is going to 4CC/Worlds, he has a chance to establish himself, like Jason did last season, and give Jason a run for his money.

As for Adam, one good competition, a pattern does not make, but he does seem to have a competitive mindset that we haven't seen from him previously (we saw a touch of that at the start of the 2013-2014 Olympic season). But again he has an chance to establish consistency at both 4CC/Worlds as well. That said, his layout is REALLY risky, not just because of the difficulty of the jump but if he pops the jump into a triple, he runs the risk of zayaking if he doesn't think on his feet cause he has two triple lutzes, including one in combination.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Quads are an advantage, not a requirement and should not be. All elements and components are advantages for any skater who can do them well. Under IJS, one can score and win in many different ways. However, quads do count for the most points and take a lot of other skills to make up for. The winning advantage goes to those all round skaters with quads. Anything less needs these few skaters to falter (highly possible with the high risk quads) to land on the major podiums.

U.S. does have a shortage of all round skaters with consistent quads. Podium hope is dimmer but not impossible.

 

[Mrs. P]

Quads are an advantage, not a requirement and should not be. All elements and components are advantages for any skater who can do them well. Under IJS, one can score and win in many different ways. However, quads do count for the most points and take a lot of other skills to make up for. The winning advantage goes to those all round skaters with quads. Anything less needs these few skaters to falter (highly possible with the high risk quads) to land on the major podiums.

U.S. does have a shortage of all round skaters with consistent quads. Podium hope is dimmer but not impossible.

The men are just SO unpredictable. It's really hard to say which skaters will peak at Worlds and which ones had already peaked during the GP season. I don't dare play the predictions round for the men, LOL.

 

[Tavi...]

Did I read somewhere in the Mens FS thread that Jason had landed a quad (toe ?) in practice between the SP and the FS. Does anyone else remember reading that or know if it's true or is it wishful thinking on my part?

PS Mrs P belated congratulations!

 

[anyanka]

After this weekend, with Adam's magnificent artistry, Jason's showmanship (even without a quad), Joshua's incredible musical interpretation skills, and others (yes even Chase Belmontes and his wicked awesome bow at the end), I'd say US men are in good shape. Maybe not quite Japanese level yet, but they appear to be closing the gap on the Russian men.

 

[Mrs. P]

Did I read somewhere in the Mens FS thread that Jason had landed a quad (toe ?) in practice between the SP and the FS. Does anyone else remember reading that or know if it's true or is it wishful thinking on my part?

PS Mrs P belated congratulations!

Thank you!

During the ICE Desk segment after the Men's FS, Michael Weiss mentioned that Jason was practicing quads in between the short and free skate. He felt this was Jason's response to criticisms after the SP. But I don't recall whether they talked about how successful those attempts were.

I'll have to listen to that segment again.

 

[TMC]

Thank you!

During the ICE Desk segment after the Men's FS, Michael Weiss mentioned that Jason was practicing quads in between the short and free skate. He felt this was Jason's response to criticisms after the SP. But I don't recall whether they talked about how successful those attempts were.

I'll have to listen to that segment again.

They made no mention as to the quality (which immediately made me think they weren't perfect - I'm such a cynic).

But I found it amusing when Tanith said that he was "throwing quads" , which does make one think they weren't awful and/or falls

 

[Tavi...]

They made no mention as to the quality (which immediately made me think they weren't perfect - I'm such a cynic).

But I found it amusing when Tanith said that he was "throwing quads" , which does make one think they weren't awful and/or falls

Thx to you and Mrs P for remembering! I will listen to the wrap. I tend to agree with you that a beautiful quad in practice would have been mentioned and probably repeated in a few articles to boot.

Did you catch Phil Hersh's tweet where he said something like Jason Brown wins with no quad and one triple axel? I was like dude, that is either a really weird headline or a pretty backhanded compliment. But I restrained myself from commenting.

 

[KwanIsALegend]

Just a question about Jason from a non-tech expert. How well can Jason possibly do at worlds realistically?

 

[Mrs. P]

Just a question about Jason from a non-tech expert. How well can Jason possibly do at worlds realistically?

He was 9th at the Olympics. He was 6th after the SP, though the scores were really tight from like 3rd to 11th.

The SP range for the finaly group last year was 86+ to mid-90s. Jason's PB, from the Olympics, is 86.00. His highest score this season was 83+ from Nebelhorn. He didn't do a clean SP at either of his GP events.
I do think he could be at least in the second to last group easily, if not the final group.

His SB is 237.17, from Nebelhorn, his GP scores were around that range. Among those who will be at Worlds, he is ranked 11th. However his Nebelhorn FS had 4 URs which cost him a lot of technical points, so he definitely could increase that score by quite a bit.

So I say realistically, he could improve on his 9th place finish pretty easily, I think and can even sneak into the Top 6 with pristine programs. A medal would take some major alignment of stars, but not impossible.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I wish Max had skated well enough to earn a medal. We are sending three guys who can be very hit or miss as far as earning high TES.

 

[GGFan]

My husband told me yesterday something his parents used to tell him when he was in high school/college and was complaining about a teacher or their approach to testing/grading. His parents told him: What you need to do if figure out what they credit (and what they don't) and figure out how you can score the best grade under those parameters.

IN that spirit, Jason and his team have figured out what IJS rewards and what it doesn't and figures out how to use his existing skill set to get the maximum score possible. It is not his fault that he manages to score well enough to win GP medals, or now, be a national champion.

The ISU is unlikely to make the quad a required element, in the immediate future (i.e. this quad) because not enough skaters do it consistently. Forget Jason, there's a whole slew of skaters from smaller federations who would likely be ineligible for competitions if a quad jump was a requirements. That said, it might be in the years to come.

Thanks for that response. I really have no vested interest in the quad being mandatory. I just wanted to make the rhetorical point that this has nothing to do with the Jasons of the world. Skaters should not be blamed for interpreting the rules as written.