State of the U.S. Men's Figure Skating for 2014-15 | Page 47 | Golden Skate

State of the U.S. Men's Figure Skating for 2014-15

What is more, if they decide they love one of mom's favorite sports, they'll have their birthday before July 1st each year. ;P

A June baby. Perfect!

After World Championship, but before the most important summer competitions heat up.

Should be sleeping through the night by Skate America!

Did you plan it that way? :laugh2:

You guys are hilarious and too much! :laugh:

And MoonlightSkater, I definitely hope it's born before July 1 cause quite frankly by that time, I probably will be itching to get it out!
 
He was 9th at the Olympics. He was 6th after the SP, though the scores were really tight from like 3rd to 11th.

The SP range for the finaly group last year was 86+ to mid-90s. Jason's PB, from the Olympics, is 86.00. His highest score this season was 83+ from Nebelhorn. He didn't do a clean SP at either of his GP events.
I do think he could be at least in the second to last group easily, if not the final group.

His SB is 237.17, from Nebelhorn, his GP scores were around that range. Among those who will be at Worlds, he is ranked 11th. However his Nebelhorn FS had 4 URs which cost him a lot of technical points, so he definitely could increase that score by quite a bit.

So I say realistically, he could improve on his 9th place finish pretty easily, I think and can even sneak into the Top 6 with pristine programs. A medal would take some major alignment of stars, but not impossible.

You could also look at it from the point of view of what he has been capable of, historically:

His combined PB is 243.09 (at TEB 2013, with a singled (!) Axel)

Current SP PB 86.00
Current FS PB 159.24
= 245.24

In his PB free skate at CoR he left at least 4 points on the ice, and didn't get last-flight pcs.
So a 250+ score is entirely possible, especially with the newly backloaded free.

With that score, he would have been

Worlds 2014: 4th
Olympics 2014: Anywhere from 3rd to 6th
Worlds 2013: 3rd (!)

While he might not get the same PCS for Juke as for Prince, depending on the judges' tastes, I can only assume that his PCS overall will be quite a lot bigger by now - especially if he makes it to the last flight (sigh, because it shouldn't be like this but it is).
 
You could also look at it from the point of view of what he has been capable of, historically:

His combined PB is 243.09 (at TEB 2013, with a singled (!) Axel)

Current SP PB 86.00
Current FS PB 159.24
= 245.24

In his PB free skate at CoR he left at least 4 points on the ice, and didn't get last-flight pcs.
So a 250+ score is entirely possible, especially with the newly backloaded free.

With that score, he would have been

Worlds 2014: 4th
Olympics 2014: Anywhere from 3rd to 6th
Worlds 2013: 3rd (!)

While he might not get the same PCS for Juke as for Prince, depending on the judges' tastes, I can only assume that his PCS overall will be quite a lot bigger by now - especially if he makes it to the last flight (sigh, because it shouldn't be like this but it is).

I do think too he could break the 250+ barrier, but it will take some some pristine programs. Oddly enough, for all his consistency, he hasn't been completely perfect this season, save his Nebelhorn SP and his Nationals SP. Every other program had some problem: Nebelhorn FS (4 URs), Skate America SP (fall on 3A), Skate America FS (UR 3A, sometightness on other jumps), Rostelecom SP (problems on 3F-3T), Rostelecom FS (stepout on solo 3Z) Nationals FS (UR 3A with two-foot).

But I guess if you want to be an optimist, he's due for a pitch-perfect FS pretty soon AND he tends to peak later in the season (see Junior Worlds 2012 and 2013, sadly our only references since it's been sometime he did an event at the end of the season); one could hope it comes when he will need it the most (Worlds).
 
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But I guess if you want to be an optimist, he's due for a pitch-perfect FS pretty soon AND he tends to peak later in the season (see Junior Worlds 2012 and 2013, sadly our only references since it's been sometime he did an event at the end of the season); one could hope it comes when he will need it the most (Worlds).

You know me, I always want to be an optimist ;) :biggrin:

ETA: As to peaking later in the season, let us all take a moment to remember that he landed his first 3As in December 2012, then went on to land 2 ratified 3As in the free at Junior Worlds in March 2013 :cheer:
 
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You know me, I always want to be an optimist ;) :biggrin:

ETA: As to peaking later in the season, let us all take a moment to remember that he landed his first 3As in December 2012, then went on to land 2 ratified 3As in the free at Junior Worlds in March 2013 :cheer:

Also, I think he said this fall in an interview that he was trying to pace himself to peak later - and by that I got the impression he meant worlds.

I have to say that although Juke is still not my favorite of his SPs, he has improved the presentation so much! He really is dancing now, and that was what I felt was most lacking. Also I loved Michael Weiss commenting that he seemed to have springs in his legs- so true! I still think he has room to improve T&I, much as I love it.
 
I wish Max had skated well enough to earn a medal. We are sending three guys who can be very hit or miss as far as earning high TES.

Don't you know? Apparently TES isn't important. It's all about PCS. Allegedly.
 
This tweet by a twitter acquaintance got me thinking today:

"I know that Jason is like the ideal son,etc but I'm genuinely surprised the federation supports a quadless skater"

I can see where they're coming from, I understand the confusion. But when I think about it from an interest/development/marketing point of view, I have to think that USFSA is actually doing the clever thing this time:

After Riverdance and its gazllion views, there was a lot of talk about how USFSA would be stupid not to use that to their advantage. I believe that Jason singlehandedly brought back many, many fans who had dropped out because of various reasons, and also brought in new fans. Here was a kid who, with his team, had learned to play the COP-game better than almost anyone else at the moment: backloaded, quality elements, crazy transitions and touching routines -> as many points as possible without a quad. That the kid is just adorable was a huge bonus.

So we have a kid who is bringing in not only old and new fans maybe even around the world (=cash), and new kid skaters to USFSA (=more cash).

Many, many people (myself partly included) went off fs when it became almost the norm to medal with falls over clean programs. Ordinary people do not get how an underrotation - which is often very hard to spot and doesn't affect the program as a whole too much - is punished so harshly compared to (in their minds) a huge mistake like a rotated fall. By ordinary people I mean those who maybe used to watch during 6.0, when a fall was almost a 90% guarantee of no medal at all, and 99% of no gold. And it appears that the more quads in programs, the more likely those mistakes are, not only on the quads but other jump elements as well. Quads are so draining that this is almost inevitable.

There will most likely always be people who will always be convinced that any win without a quad jump attempt is, to them, invalid.
I've developed the impression that there are two types of viewers: those who don't really mind even big and multiple mistakes and can look past them and enjoy the performance notwithstanding, and those that feel that the glaring mistakes deflate the tech quality, performance and their enjoyment of it significantly. Regarding falls it's like the first group appreciates the athletic difficulty and is willing to reward even fully failed attempts, and the 2nd group, while also appreciating the athletic difficulty, finds it hard to consider an element "partly" successful and worth a lot of points if it ends in a fall. In terms of high jumping, the first group sees that the athlete got over the bar, and it doesn't matter that much that the bar wobbles and falls. The second group sees the bar fall and thinks that the jump was unsuccessful and should not be considered as though the bar had in fact been 10 centimeters lower and the jumper had cleared it. The first group consists mainly of fs fans, the second of fs fans and casual viewers and potential viewers.

The challenge here is to please both sides while at the same time increase interest in the sport and attract young athletes.

So when you think about the popularity and the longevity (heck, actual survival) of the sport as something other than a niche/four-year curiosity, supporting Jason makes an awful lot of sense.

Now the US has - thanks to quads - 3 spots for Worlds.

2/3 of those spots went to men who have quads. Only 1/3 went to one who doesn't. That means that most of the competitors in the team have a quad, and the one that doesn't has good-to-excellent consistency and bucketloads of charisma which will reach people even through their screens. I'm absolutely not saying that Adam and Josh do not have charisma - they certainly do. I just feel that Jason and some of his programs possess the kind of crossover charisma that will not only delight fs fans and casual watchers - it will delight people who don't normally care about fs at all. This manifested in the never-before-seen virality of that one clip on youtube. I believe that all three have the ability to bring in completely new fans, but that in Jason this ability appears to be the strongest.

To my mind this is the ideal scenario for both maximising medal chances and upping the popularity of the sport.

Adam and Josh have the goods, but the delivery is not 100% guaranteed. Jason has different goods and there's a good-to-excellent chance that he will deliver, if not in both then in one skate at least.

So the best case scenario for USFSA is as follows:

1) Adam rotates and lands both quad Lutzes and does everything else cleanly. He has an excellent chance of medalling if that happens (that LP is a masterpiece)
2) Josh does a pristine clean (quadless?) short with +3s for the Axel, putting him in the final flight where he lands his quad toe. He also has a chance of medalling if he truly goes squeaky clean (That LP is also awesome)
3) Jason goes as clean as he possibly can and doesn't forget to pack the springs he wore on his feet at Nationals. He gets the crowd going and is rewarded with great PCS, possibly even good enough to get him in the final flight as well. And even if he ends lower, his LP in turn is a huge crowd-pleaser, meaning he could get very decent scores even in the next-to-last flight.

-> All 3 men in the top 12, one possibly even medalling.

4) Other top contenders make multiple mistakes

-> All 3 men in the top 10, one or even two medalling.

Obviously this is the absolute ideal situation ;)

So the way I see it, USFSA is covering all the bases:
a) Send in the quads to keep 3 spots and potentially medal,
b) Send in the consistency to ensure 2-3 spots even if one or both quads headcase.
c) Give the young ones experience and a chance to make their mark (especially applying to Josh)
d) Nurture the potentially growing interest in FS in the US

What do you think?

Crawling out of even longer threads, just coming back to this one.

Bravo, TMC, great analysis:rock:

Jason plus two guys-with-quads-who-happen-to-skate-well: a hope for bringing in fans *and* medals.
 
Per my earlier post on this thread ( http://goldenskate.com/forum/showth...or-2014-15&p=1036016&viewfull=1#post1036016): Coming into Nationals, Max did have the highest season's best FS TES among the American men (83+) as well as the highest average FS TES (77+).

Jason was second in both categories (80.50) (season’s best) 74.13 (average).

Adam Rippon, for all his struggles, actually ranked 3rd in these two categories (77.82 (Season’s best) ; 73.61 (Average).

In the SP, Jason was #1 in season's best (43.50), but #5 in average TES (40.23) while Richard Dornbush was #1 average (40.98). Max was #7 in season's best (41.01) and #3 average (40.73).

In the SP, the TES did not have a huge differential among the US men. In the FS, Max had a few points gap on Jason and the rest of the field in TES , but Jason had a 9 point gap on Max when you looked at their PCS averages (82.07 v. 73.10) for the FS.

Max also had a huge gap compared to Jeremy and Richard. And the most unfortunate stat is that Josh's season's worst (or his only PCS score due to NHK being his competition) of 65+ was just three points below Max's PCS at Rostelecom Cup FS where he missed both his quads (but got everything else.).

It's a definite head-scratcher for Max's team.
 
To be fair I think Max still has more experience than Josh, sending him to 4CC and Josh to WC would be ideal.
 
I think one of the things that is aggrieving me most is that people were piling Max before this, saying he should give up on the 4S-3T combo because it left too many points on the table, blah blah blah...what does he do at Nationals? Not only land it, but get +2 for it! Over 16 points for one jump pass. And it's still not enough. It will never be enough. That LP was miles better than WSS in 2013 and it will never be good enough.

:cry:
 
To be fair I think Max still has more experience than Josh, sending him to 4CC and Josh to WC would be ideal.
But that's probably why they're sending Josh to 4CC: They want to give him experience before throwing their promising young man "to the wolves" at Worlds.

I personally think Max's season shouldn't just end here... but other posters made a good point about the placements. Had Josh's 3Lz been counted and Adam had come third, I think Max would've gotten the 4CC spot.
 
Max really, really deserves to go to 4CC. :no: He lands quads beautifully, his other jumps are good, and his confidence will grow with more international competitions. I agree that the World team is right; but to leave Max out of 4CC is to deny one of team USA's best skaters a chance to improve his international competitive skills. It also leaves the impression that they are not backing him.
 
But that's probably why they're sending Josh to 4CC: They want to give him experience before throwing their promising young man "to the wolves" at Worlds.
I personally think Max's season shouldn't just end here... but other posters made a good point about the placements. Had Josh's 3Lz been counted and Adam had come third, I think Max would've gotten the 4CC spot.
I think Josh is younger so he still has more time, that's why I think they should give the chance to Max. And it's not like Max skated badly. With the same skate he MIGHT medal at 4CC.
 
But that's probably why they're sending Josh to 4CC: They want to give him experience before throwing their promising young man "to the wolves" at Worlds.

I personally think Max's season shouldn't just end here... but other posters made a good point about the placements. Had Josh's 3Lz been counted and Adam had come third, I think Max would've gotten the 4CC spot.

My thoughts exactly. I feel for Max though, especially as the strongest US man re: jumps. (I won't say technically overall, because spins and footwork are part of the technical score as well.)

The fact is, all three top men at Nationals could benefit greatly from strong showings at 4CC, even the "veteran" Adam. Aside from a silver at Skate America last year, he hasn't been hugely successful internationally in the past 3-4 years.

I truly wish Max's season didn't have to end here, but I hope Jason, Adam, and Josh do well at 4CC to boost their confidence and reputations before Worlds.
 
It seems Max is "so much older" since he won Nationals first. While he is older (b. 1992; he'll be 23 next month) He actually is part of the U.S. Nationals Jr. Class of 2010: He was 3rd behind Jason and Josh. He actually stayed behind in juniors an extra year while Josh and Jason went to the senior level nationally.

Anyway, Josh has a low WR, (he's 30th as I noted earlier) so sending him to 4CC makes sense so he could make get some more points and get into an later SP group. Same goes for Adam in 21st.

There's a better case for Jason to stay at home and for Max to go instead (like Ashley did, which enabled Samantha Cesario to go). Jason is 14th (and I think 9th among the men who will likely be at Worlds) so he was likely to be in the last two groups anyway. But alas that is not what happened.
 
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I think Josh is younger so he still has more time, that's why I think they should give the chance to Max. And it's not like Max skated badly. With the same skate he MIGHT medal at 4CC.
Worlds in Boston is coming up. I suspect the US wants focus on keeping those three spots. Even if Max skates out-of-this-world and wins 4CC, someone's gonna say, "Should've given our guys the experience" if Jason/Adam/Josh bomb Worlds and lose the spots.

This, of course, doesn't change how sad this all is for Max.
 
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