State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

[surimi]

I'm not sure if this has been linked somewhere or not, but I've just finished reading this Ashley interview that caught my eye on the main Yahoo page, and she sounds pretty level-headed and confident about her chances at Worlds:
http://olympictalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/16/ashley-wagner-today-show-figure-skating-world-championships-winter-olympics/
Of all the US ladies, this is the one I'd place a bet on to medal next month.

 

[R.D.]

Yes, U.S. ladies have gone down since Sasha's days, but I think Sasha had far less competition to deal with than Ashley. There was not a powerhouse of skaters stuck the top, i.e. Yuna/Mao/Carolina. Plus there very solid Japanese skaters in Miki Ando and Akiko Suzuki. And now you have a slew of consistent Russian skaters who could be medal contenders any day of hte week.

I recognize that, which is why I started off with the disclaimer that the comparison may not be 100% fair given the differing eras. Yes, the World field has grown stronger since the mid-2000s, but at the same time, when one looks at the vast resources USFS has, there's really not a whole lot of reasons I can think of why US ladies should not have been still competitive at the top. Maybe not on a consistent basis (that's one thing that seems to have gone out the window with Cop), but at least every so often. The sheer length of this drought is really unprecedented and unique.

 

[Mrs. P]

I recognize that, which is why I started off with the disclaimer that the comparison may not be 100% fair given the differing eras. Yes, the World field has grown stronger since the mid-2000s, but at the same time, when one looks at the vast resources USFS has, there's really not a whole lot of reasons I can think of why US ladies should not have been still competitive at the top. Maybe not on a consistent basis (that's one thing that seems to have gone out the window with Cop), but at least every so often. The sheer length of this drought is really unprecedented and unique.

It's unprecedented cause it's never happened before, but I don't think it's THAT unique. I think many countries have dealt with droughts. Look at Japan. Once Midori Ito left in 1992 and Yuka Sato left in 1994, there was such a dearth of success in Japan, that Midori was able to come back (or was "encouraged" to return) in 1996 and go to Worlds. The drought lasted 8 years, until Fumie Suguri medaled in 2006. Other countries dealth with droughts too, though they were not as long as this one with the U.S. Ladies.

I think the fact that the drough comes after decades of success is what makes it depressing, but if you follow sports, droughts, especially lengthy ones, are by no means unusual.

 

[Sandpiper]

It's all about expectation and reward. People expected so much from Sasha. Some (not me) even thought she could've done more than Michelle. Her balletic style and flexibility have been quite influential in the world of figure skating. Yet for all that, she never won a single world title and never delivered a clean LP. That's what people find frustrating.

On the other hand, no one expected anything from Ashley. Most thought she wasn't even as talented as Mirai Nagasu, let alone Sasha Cohen. Yet here she is. 3-time National champion, 3-time GPF medallist, undisputed USA #1 heading into Worlds. In retrospect, it wasn't fair to treat Sasha as a failure. But no need to treat Ashley that way either.

She has a wonderful chance at Worlds. I think most would consider her at least the bronze medal favourite (though apparently not you, R.D...)

 

[R.D.]

I'm not sure if this has been linked somewhere or not, but I've just finished reading this Ashley interview that caught my eye on the main Yahoo page, and she sounds pretty level-headed and confident about her chances at Worlds:
http://olympictalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/16/ashley-wagner-today-show-figure-skating-world-championships-winter-olympics/

Thanks for posting.

Well, talk is just that - talk. But I have to admire the ambition and willingness to keep upping the ante. It's sorely needed right now. Ultimately, assuming she can keep herself healthy, on the domestic level that should trickle down to the other US women if they want to compete with her.

 

[R.D.]

It's all about expectation and reward. People expected so much from Sasha. Some (not me) even thought she could've done more than Michelle. Her balletic style and flexibility have been quite influential in the world of figure skating. Yet for all that, she never won a single world title and never delivered a clean LP. That's what people find frustrating.

But Kwan never won Olympic Gold despite winning multiples of just about everything else out there. Does that lessen her career any?

On the other hand, no one expected anything from Ashley. Most thought she wasn't even as talented as Mirai Nagasu, let alone Sasha Cohen. Yet here she is. 3-time National champion, 3-time GPF medallist, undisputed USA #1 heading into Worlds. In retrospect, it wasn't fair to treat Sasha as a failure. But no need to treat Ashley that way either.

That is not my intent. But it is a definite fact that Wagner, while having a respectable career by itself, is nowhere near as successful on the world stage as past US skating greats, and even those who weren't considered great or even merely good. Look at Sarah Hughes, who gets a lot of ridicule on here. Even she has a world bronze and an Olympic gold, not to mention a few National medals.

She [Wagner] has a wonderful chance at Worlds. I think most would consider her at least the bronze medal favourite (though apparently not you, R.D...)

You know though - it's such a tough call. I certainly didn't in the past, but that was before 4CC. The 4CC was so underwhelming, with even the winner (Edmunds) putting up beatable numbers. OTOH, the Russian women at Euros looked potent. I will say this: outside of the Russians, Wagner does have the most momentum going into the event. It remains to be seen whether that is enough to finally propel her to the podium, though. She is not my pick for bronze (I'm still leaning toward a Russian sweep), but if even one of them messes up, that door opens (like GPF). You never really know with skating - hopefully we'll be in for some more surprises. I know I'd personally love to see Wagner (and/or Gold) on the podium. But ultimately we have to keep emotions in check and be real about things.

 

[Scovies]

I liked this interview even better: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2015/02/13/109208008

She seems really self-aware about what she needs to work on.

"I'm always very well aware of what I put out and where I stack up against everyone, and I know that when it comes to my Lutzes, [the technical panel] is not going to be so forgiving at worlds," she said. "For me, my main focus at worlds is to get a solid, solid outside-edge Lutz. I think I am totally capable of doing it. It's more of a nervous habit right now, to flatten out the edge (on take-off)."

And this:

Beyond the jumps, she's working to correct what she calls "silly mistakes" on her spins.
"I've been giving away way too many points on my spins this season, I'm well aware," she said. "Those are the easiest points to get. My coaching team has it down. It's up to me to practice them and put in the work, so I know what three revolutions (per spin position) feels like, rather than two and a quarter or something like that."

She's gotten better at every competition so far this season, so I think she'll continue the momentum.

 

[Sandpiper]

But Kwan never won Olympic Gold despite winning multiples of just about everything else out there. Does that lessen her career any?

It kinda does. If she had Olympic gold, I think we can pretty much put to rest the "greatest ever" debates. (Contingent on the rest of her record staying the same, of course. Hypothetical clean 6-triple Kwan winning in Torino, not her winning in Nagano and retiring).

But here's the difference: Michelle Kwan has five World titles. She has nine National titles. She skated multiple clean LPs in her career. Her only big-time mess-up was SLC, and even then she landed 5 triples (6 if we count the two-footed 3T). She is one of the greats without OGM, because the rest of her record (World titles and consistency) surpass people who have OGM.

Cohen doesn't have any of that. She has a much better record than any US skater today, but not nearly enough to be up there with Kim, Asada, Yamaguchi, ect. (who all have weaker non-Olympic results than Kwan). And that ultimate pedestal of greatness if what many wanted for her. Even expected--which, in retrospective, was foolish.

On the other hand, people are somewhat surprised Wagner ever became US #1 in the first place. No one ever expected her to be one of the greats.

That is not my intent. But it is a definite fact that Wagner, while having a respectable career by itself, is nowhere near as successful on the world stage as past US skating greats, and even those who weren't considered great or even merely good. It makes me laugh when people compare her to MK, like huh?

Only in terms of being the first to defend her title, then the first to win 3+ titles. No one is saying she's comparable to MK overall, outside of those Nationals results.

You know though - it's such a tough call. I certainly didn't in the past, but that was before 4CC. The 4CC was so underwhelming, with even the winner (Edmunds) putting up beatable numbers. OTOH, the Russian women at Euros looked potent. I will say this: outside of the Russians, Wagner does have the most momentum going into the event. It remains to be seen whether that is enough to finally propel her to the podium, though. She is not my pick for bronze (I'm still leaning toward a Russian sweep), but if even one of them messes up, that door opens (like GPF). You never really know with skating - hopefully we'll be in for some more surprises.

Clean Wagner probably crushes a clean Anna Pogorilaya at this point. Ashley with a few < and ! will probably still go ahead based on PCS. If she makes more mistakes than that... yeah, the medal could be gone. But on the other hand, clean Anna hasn't happened since SC.

 

[R.D.]

Clean Wagner probably crushes a clean Anna Pogorilaya at this point. Ashley with a few < and ! will probably still go ahead based on PCS. If she makes more mistakes than that... yeah, the medal could be gone. But on the other hand, clean Anna hasn't happened since SC.

Perhaps...we shall see...I will tell you this, though - this one is gonna be tough to watch, I don't think I'll be able to do it...

 

[Sandpiper]

Perhaps...we shall see...I will tell you this, though - this one is gonna be tough to watch, I don't think I'll be able to do it...

I will eat my left sock if a clean Anna receives higher PCS than a clean Ashley.

 

[samson]

Clean Wagner probably crushes a clean Anna Pogorilaya at this point. Ashley with a few < and ! will probably still go ahead based on PCS. If she makes more mistakes than that... yeah, the medal could be gone. But on the other hand, clean Anna hasn't happened since SC.

Yeah I think I agree with that sentiment. Just as comparison at worlds last year where they both got free skate personal bests Anna was about 1.75 points ahead but she had 7 clean triples to Ashley's 5. If we're looking at seasons best Anna out does Ashley but just over two points. But still that's a totally clean Anna with 10 total triples compared to an 8 triple Ashley. I know I'm comparing Euros to the Grand Prix Final, but I still think it's significant. Ashley's component scores have managed to stay pretty high this season, while Anna's if anything have gotten much worse.

I don't think Ashley can catch Elena and Elizaveta without either one have at least a semi-meltdown, even then both ladies have so much momentum. I thought Satoko was going to be a threat especially after her short program at 4CC but now I'm not so sure. Based on what I've read in the interviews I think Ashley has the right approach. Between the Grand Prix Final and Nationals she has all the momentum she needs going into Worlds. I respect that she was able to acknowledge that she wasn't going to get much out of competing this past weekend, and that it allowed her to give her body time to recuperate.

She's pretty honest about how hard she has to work to be able to be at the top, and why push it when you don't have to and your programs have the mileage?

Polina might have some good momentum now, she seems to be finding her mojo again, but I think she'll still need to rely on others to make mistakes if she wants a top 6 finish. Her programs aren't sophisticated and don't grab the audience enough - but who knows, maybe judges will feel being the 4CC champ will give her enough cache to get some boosts.

Gracie seemed to be skating like she just wants this season to be over. It's almost like she still has post-Olympic fatigue. I wouldn't totally blame her if she did, still I'm starting to wonder if she'll have enough gas in the tank for a top 6 finish even. My gut tells me if we put a clean Ashley with outside edge lutzes against a clean Gracie with her jump content, it will go to Ashley.

 

[sabinfire]

I will eat my left sock if a clean Anna receives higher PCS than a clean Ashley.

Hope you are doing your laundry the night before...

 

[Sandpiper]

Hope you are doing your laundry the night before...

If Anna out-PCS clean Ashley, I promise to eat the old and moldy sock.

Honestly, even Liza and Lena won't have too much cushion over a clean Ashley, though I'm not willing to risks socks on that front...

 

[R.D.]

Based on what I've read in the interviews I think Ashley has the right approach. Between the Grand Prix Final and Nationals she has all the momentum she needs going into Worlds. I respect that she was able to acknowledge that she wasn't going to get much out of competing this past weekend, and that it allowed her to give her body time to recuperate.

She's pretty honest about how hard she has to work to be able to be at the top, and why push it when you don't have to and your programs have the mileage?

Wagner is in a good spot, that much seems clear - but does "momentum" really matter much in the end? When it comes down to it, it's a brand new day and a clean sheet of ice...

If Wagner has finally figured out how to compete, however, it bodes well for her.

Polina might have some good momentum now, she seems to be finding her mojo again, but I think she'll still need to rely on others to make mistakes if she wants a top 6 finish. Her programs aren't sophisticated and don't grab the audience enough - but who knows, maybe judges will feel being the 4CC champ will give her enough cache to get some boosts.

I guess that's the wildcard - whether Edmunds gains any "street cred" or "rep points" as a side effect of winning a major championship. But I don't think it will - I think it's a bit overblown...

Gracie seemed to be skating like she just wants this season to be over. It's almost like she still has post-Olympic fatigue. I wouldn't totally blame her if she did, still I'm starting to wonder if she'll have enough gas in the tank for a top 6 finish even. My gut tells me if we put a clean Ashley with outside edge lutzes against a clean Gracie with her jump content, it will go to Ashley.

Hmm, now that'll be interesting. Gold has almost ALWAYS had the edge on TES because of Wagner's jump issues, but if Wagner continues aggressively fixing her flaws and that gap closes, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Gold's major advantage was in the SP, where she scored more but now Gold is showing the same inconsistency there that Wagner used to show. I did think once Gold passed Wagner, she wouldn't have to worry about her again but that's looking to be a false premise. With Gold's recent struggles, there is every reason to be concerned about being passed up by Wagner (it's one thing to give up the national title, but once she starts losing to Wagner internationally...).

Losing to Edmunds at 4CC REALLY had to hurt though. Hearing the US anthem playing when you're not even on the podium? Double zinger.

I hope she recovers and gets her act together - fast. We still need her to do well if we want 3 spots for Boston 2016. Bit too much to ask Wagner to medal (3) or Edmunds to hang around the top 6 when she needs help to rise above 8th...

 

[stella luna]

I will eat my left sock if a clean Anna receives higher PCS than a clean Ashley.

Pics or it didn't happen!

 

[samson]

Wagner is in a good spot, that much seems clear - but does "momentum" really matter much in the end? When it comes down to it, it's a brand new day and a clean sheet of ice...

If Wagner has finally figured out how to compete, however, it bodes well for her.




I guess that's the wildcard - whether Edmunds gains any "street cred" or "rep points" as a side effect of winning a major championship. But I don't think it will - I think it's a bit overblown...



Hmm, now that'll be interesting. Gold has almost ALWAYS had the edge on TES because of Wagner's jump issues, but if Wagner continues aggressively fixing her flaws and that gap closes, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Gold's major advantage was in the SP, where she scored more but now Gold is showing the same inconsistency there that Wagner used to show. I did think once Gold passed Wagner, she wouldn't have to worry about her again but that's looking to be a false premise. With Gold's recent struggles, there is every reason to be concerned about being passed up by Wagner (it's one thing to give up the national title, but once she starts losing to Wagner internationally...).

Losing to Edmunds at 4CC REALLY had to hurt though. Hearing the US anthem playing when you're not even on the podium? Double zinger.

I hope she recovers and gets her act together - fast. We still need her to do well if we want 3 spots for Boston 2016. Bit too much to ask Wagner to medal (3) or Edmunds to hang around the top 6 when she needs help to rise above 8th...

At the end of the day I think the only ladies who have any right to be feeling secure about a podium finish are Tukt and Radi. Ultimately I think that third spot will go down to who is cleanest after two night of skating.

I do think momentum is key for skaters. At least as far as mental game goes. I have to imagine it certainly affects some skaters more than others and in different ways. On The Skating Lesson they said how Satoko performs at worlds after her disappointment at 4CC will be a real indicator of the stuff she's made of, but I think the same could be said for Gracie. But I will say when a skater starts to perform clean skate after clean skate you definitely see their GOE and PCS rise. I think momentum can certainly impact a skaters perception. Think of all the people who compared the momentum of Meryl and Charlie last year. Come Sochi their gold almost seemed inevitable.

Now I'm a Mirai fan, so I'm never one to count a skater out who has the talent (meaning I def won't count someone like Gracie out even if she isn't able to pick up the pieces at Worlds) but it definitely does seem like Gracie is stalling right now. I do wonder if Gracie should leave Frank once the season is over and before things go further south. I think he was valuable when she had the clear drive of the Olympics pushing her, and it was sort of ok that they weren't connecting in a really organic way, but I just don't think the Lori/Frank approach sings with her.

 

[knghcm]

All this talk about Polina's costume makes me wonder why Elizaveta didn't ditch the matronly muumuu and ponytail that made her look like she should be driving her three kids in her SUV instead of being on a skating rink. She has a striking, mature look that could really set her apart from the Russian girls stereotype that is bandied about right now. Could you imagine her in something like the Cleopatra costume for her FS, especially with her resemblance to Elizabeth Taylor and that Mediterranean-sounding music? She really need a stylist that could steer her to "fierce", less "grandma". I have a hunch that these old-timer coach (Mishin, Frank Carroll) are a little out of touch with the packaging of their skaters.

 

[Interspectator]

All this talk about Polina's costume makes me wonder why Elizaveta didn't ditch the matronly muumuu and ponytail that made her look like she should be driving her three kids in her SUV instead of being on a skating rink. She has a striking, mature look that could really set her apart from the Russian girls stereotype that is bandied about right now. Could you imagine her in something like the Cleopatra costume for her FS, especially with her resemblance to Elizabeth Taylor and that Mediterranean-sounding music? She really need a stylist that could steer her to "fierce", less "grandma". I have a hunch that these old-timer coach (Mishin, Frank Carroll) are a little out of touch with the packaging of their skaters.

I like her muumuu! I have seen many Cleopatra style costumes on skaters and the only one I'd like to see it on these days is Mae Berenice.
As for Polina, I'm neutral about her dress. This is probably worse than hating it outright. Her dress makes her forgettable. -But I though the performance was very good. I can see her being a Carolina Kostner type in the future, with more experience.

 

[TontoK]

Samson said, "I do wonder if Gracie should leave Frank once the season is over and before things go further south. I think he was valuable when she had the clear drive of the Olympics pushing her, and it was sort of ok that they weren't connecting in a really organic way, but I just don't think the Lori/Frank approach sings with her."

TSL made this point in their 4CC wrap-up. Yeah, their wrap-ups can be snarky and gossipy... I acknowledge that.

Anyway, they thought the whole Frank thing wasn't panning out, that Lori isn't the right choreographer for her... that her skating hadn't really improved. I can't disagree.

They suggested Kori Ade... more nurturing, more likely to let Gracie explore music that suits her... they thought Rohene could craft a much better suited program for her. I like this idea.

 

[WeakAnkles]

Samson said, "I do wonder if Gracie should leave Frank once the season is over and before things go further south. I think he was valuable when she had the clear drive of the Olympics pushing her, and it was sort of ok that they weren't connecting in a really organic way, but I just don't think the Lori/Frank approach sings with her."

TSL made this point in their 4CC wrap-up. Yeah, their wrap-ups can be snarky and gossipy... I acknowledge that.

Anyway, they thought the whole Frank thing wasn't panning out, that Lori isn't the right choreographer for her... that her skating hadn't really improved. I can't disagree.

They suggested Kori Ade... more nurturing, more likely to let Gracie explore music that suits her... they thought Rohene could craft a much better suited program for her. I like this idea.

No more snarky and gossipy than say an average fan site/board. I find them refreshing. And I thought the suggestion of Kori to coach Gracie was inspired. I'd LOVE to see what Rohene would choreograph for her.