State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

[R.D.]

Well, that disaster did have one positive effect - it took pressure off. Now, no one really expects a whole lot from her at Worlds...plus she's no longer the US champ. If she is ready and adequately prepared, it could put her right where she needs to be to recover/make a statement. Even then, though, she's likely going to be fighting herself all the way through. There is a growing possibility that this may not be her year.

Still, don't count her out yet.

 

[LRK]

I do remember there being hype for Ashley here on GS when she had that great GP in the autumn of 2012 I think?

 

[R.D.]

Wow...accidentally deleted my post when I meant to edit it!!! Sorry. Stupid iPad.

The above post was in response to my original comment about this being the first time I can remember any sort of hype being generated for Wagner, with more people considering her a factor in the medals. A select few even think she can win(!!). The question is how she handles this new level of pressure and expectations, which have weighed her down in the past. She wants to be a "leading lady" but can she handle the associated burden that comes with that position? Wagner was always better when no one expects anything from her or counts her out...

As for 2012, perhaps but it certainly wasn't anywhere near this level. In the past, fans would have laughed off any thought of Wagner winning an event like Worlds.

 

[Skater Boy]

Certainly Ashley has a chance at the world title. she was third at the GPF. She has the highest pcs and experience and maturity that belies her rivals. She is fierce. She has a great coaching team. She has been upping the content and if she lands everything cleanly and keeps her levels up on the spins, footwork and such she certainly has a very fair shot because she already is no. 1 in pcs. HOwever, the big issue is can she land her jumps cleanly and or will the Russians make mistakes. She has been gaining momentum as well. Gracie might benefit on the hother hand from having less expected of her. Some have noted her jumps seem a bit weaker right now though under Frank and her programs are not necessarily eyepopping but I note hardly anyone has real eye catcher programs - they tend to be much more appreciated when they are skated cleanly and with passion - I notice programs artistic merit seem to be heavily enhanced when skated cleanly. It is even possibly Gracie and Ashley both make the podium at world's a sweep possible too though realistically one would think at least one Russian lady would skate well enough to podium. World's is a different beast but Elena and Liza have been very tough and consistent. But it doesn't matter what happened in the past it is what happens at world's and anything can happen because ice is slippery.

 

[R.D.]

To me, it's such a remote chance. Not impossible per se, but so incredibly unlikely. It would be Hughes 2002 all over again - BOTH Russians would have to succumb big time and Wagner would have to absolutely nail it...I don't think it will happen. 3rd is doable, but again she will have to be near her best (especially if Gold re-emerges - then SHE becomes the leading US candidate for the podium).

 

[amc987]

I think if Ashley nails both of her programs (no URs, no edge calls, no two-foot landings, all L4s on spins), she should challenge for the title. I say should because while Ashley's presentation (PE, IN, CH) is way better than Radionova and Tuktamysheva's, the Russian ladies have been getting insanely high PCS all season. Additionally, while Ashley has come on strong since the GPF, the Russians have been skating consistently with their 3-3s all season. So who really knows what the judges will do in Shanghai?

I hope Ashley skates even better at Worlds than she did at Nationals and that the judges give the gold medal to whoever is best on the day.

 

[stella luna]

I think if Ashley nails both of her programs (no URs, no edge calls, no two-foot landings, all L4s on spins), she should challenge for the title. I say should because while Ashley's presentation (PE, IN, CH) is way better than Radionova and Tuktamysheva's, the Russian ladies have been getting insanely high PCS all season. Additionally, while Ashley has come on strong since the GPF, the Russians have been skating consistently with their 3-3s all season. So who really knows what the judges will do in Shanghai?

I hope Ashley skates even better at Worlds than she did at Nationals and that the judges give the gold medal to whoever is best on the day.

If a U.S. lady makes the podium, are we guaranteed 3 spots for next year?

 

[StitchMonkey]

If a U.S. lady makes the podium, are we guaranteed 3 spots for next year?

No, we have to have a top two combined placement of 13 or less. So one more lady would need to be in the top ten.

 

[Sandpiper]

It is even possibly Gracie and Ashley both make the podium at world's a sweep possible too though realistically one would think at least one Russian lady would skate well enough to podium.

Two Americans on the podium would be a long shot. Sweep is too far-fetched to contemplate. Clean Polina is about equal to Anna Pogorilaya with two mistakes, and that's the #3 Russian. Yeah, it's "theoretically possible," but so is--say--Rika Hongo winning Worlds.

3rd is doable, but again she will have to be near her best (especially if Gold re-emerges - then SHE becomes the leading US candidate for the podium).

While a clean Gold is capable of winning Worlds (as much as I disagree)... if anyone else skated the way she did all year, I doubt they'd be in the conversation...

 

[cjsk8fan]

If I recall correctly, Mao wasn't always the most stellar early competitor and somehow she would rally and be competitive for Worlds. I know Gracie is no Mao, but Gracie could rally and be competitive and well be in the the conversation,

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

To me, it's such a remote chance. Not impossible per se, but so incredibly unlikely. It would be Hughes 2002 all over again - BOTH Russians would have to succumb big time and Wagner would have to absolutely nail it...I don't think it will happen. 3rd is doable, but again she will have to be near her best (especially if Gold re-emerges - then SHE becomes the leading US candidate for the podium).

I don't think the situation is nearly as dire for her. She doesn't need the Russians to crumble if she skates like she did at Nationals and is able to get her lutz from ! (which is what most tech callers would have called it) to the correct edge. I think she is unlikely to win, but not "incredibly" so.

 

[Sandpiper]

If I recall correctly, Mao wasn't always the most stellar early competitor and somehow she would rally and be competitive for Worlds. I know Gracie is no Mao, but Gracie could rally and be competitive and well be in the the conversation,

My point isn't to write Gracie off. I just think it's time Ashley receives some respect. She's fought tooth-and-nail for that leading lady position, and after GPF, Nationals, and 4CC, I can't think of any reason to deny her that. She's beaten the Japanese ladies on the GP circuit, beaten two out of four Russians at GPF, then beat her entire country at Nationals. She's upped her technical content and fixed many of her issues, answering the jeers that she's too old. I think we should be able to call her USA #1 without the "Well, if only Gracie got her act together" asterisk hanging over her head.

Maybe Ashley will end up in 6th place at Worlds, and Gracie will finally fulfill that "Gracie Gold for gold!" hype that NBC has been running since the Olympics. But why not recognize Ashley's #1 status for now, no matter how long--or how short--it is?

 

[stella luna]

My point isn't to write Gracie off. I just think it's time Ashley receives some respect. She's fought tooth-and-nail for that leading lady position, and after GPF, Nationals, and 4CC, I can't think of any reason to deny her that. She's beaten the Japanese ladies on the GP circuit, beaten two out of four Russians at GPF, then beat her entire country at Nationals. She's upped her technical content and fixed many of her issues, answering the jeers that she's too old. I think we should be able to call her USA #1 without the "Well, if only Gracie got her act together" asterisk hanging over her head.

Maybe Ashley will end up in 6th place at Worlds, and Gracie will finally fulfill that "Gracie Gold for gold!" hype that NBC has been running since the Olympics. But why not recognize Ashley's #1 status for now, no matter how long--or how short--it is?

If a home girl delivers, you gotta root for her.

 

[R.D.]

I don't think anyone's putting an asterisk next to Wagner's 2015 US title. I mean, she went out and won that one pretty clearly. The judges fluffed up her score big time, but she WAS the clear winner that night.

I think what Wagner has done this season is commendable, especially at this stage of her career. You really don't see late bloomers very often in skating. The typical career is more approximate of a bell curve, with the best results coming around early to mid-career. Eight years in, I think it's safe to say it's relatively late in Wagner's career.

You know, skating fans can certainly be a fickle bunch sometimes, that's for sure. Wagner was old & washed-up at season's beginning and now all of a sudden, after one great competition she's USA's best hope. It went from "When will she retire?" to "OMG she can win worlds!!!" Gold was youthful, promising and now all of a sudden, after one disastrous competition, she's being given up on.

 

[R.D.]

Updating to say the US had a time of it at junior worlds...Miss Phenom Karen Chen finishes 8th and her teammate Tyler Pierce ended up 19th(!). Both made numerous errors (nerves most likely cause).

Chen said she wants to move up to the senior GP next season (is she eligible for 2 events?).

Hopefully Wagner, Gold and Edmunds fare better at Big Worlds.

 

[Mrs. P]

I don't think Karen is guaranteed for any as she's out of the top 24 WR/SB list. But she's close enough where she probably will get one or even two.

There's 72 spots and even if everyone in the top 24 SB/WR got two there are still spots remaining.

The gnashing of teeth over this result is somewhat understandable, but all in all, I don't think Karen's result was that bad. Yes, she could have done better, but there are small victories -- namely a lovely ratified 3z-3t with +1.10 GOE.

She probably should had stuck to her 3lo-2t, cause clearly the 3lo-3t psyched her out, but I think she wanted to be competitive and she couldn't do 3lz-3t due to junior requirements. Honestly, I think she just wants to move on cause the junior level had not worked out well for her. She clearly, oddly, felt more at ease doing the senior version of her programs.

 

[b-man]

There were 72 slots this past GP season, not 60. Has that changed?

 

[Mrs. P]

There were 72 slots this past GP season, not 60. Has that changed?

Yes, you're right.....Some reason I was thinking 10 spots per event....in any case, more left over for the likes of Karen!

 

[cruzceleste]

Just out of curisosity, with out the falls what score could Karen got? I wanna have a comparission with Nationals.

Thank you in advance

 

[Mrs. P]

Just out of curisosity, with out the falls what score could Karen got? I wanna have a comparission with Nationals.

Thank you in advanc.

It's hard to compare directly with nationals because there she was doing a senior program, which has an extra element.

That said, to answer your question:

* She lost 3.79 in BV and -GOE on the 3S<<
* She lost another 1.50 in -GOE on the fall on the 2A, plus that's typically her 3-jump combo, so she lost another 3.41 in BV points.
* SHe lost -2 in deductions due to the fall
* She also lost .3 in BV for Lsp3 (she can get level 4 on that one)

TOTAL = 11 points

TES= 50.43+ 11= 61.43.

105.66 + 11 = 116.66

She got 135 at nationals, but again, it's not comparable given that it's a national event and there's inflation, plus an extra element.

But let's try ==

3Z-3T = Nationals, 8.80 (it was 3Z-3T< and she got -0.20 GOE); Jr. Worlds 11.20 (3Z-3T, 1.10 GOE)
3F = Nationals 5.60 (! call, +.6 GOE); Jr. Worlds 6.20 ( no call; .9 GOE)
FCCoSp = Nationals 4.29 (level 4; .79 GOE); Jr. Worlds 3.93 (level 4; .43 GOE)
StSq = Nationals 5.20 (level 4; 1.3 GOE); Jr. Worlds 3.80 (level 3; .5 GOE)
CCoSp= Nationals 4.64 (level 4; 1.14 GOE); Jr. Worlds 4.50 (level 4; 1.00 GOE)
2Ax= Nationals 4.92 (1.29 GOE); Jr. Worlds Jr. Worlds 4.56 (.93 GOE)
3Lox= Nationals 6.82 (1.20 GOE); Jr. Worlds 6.71 (1.10 GOE)
3S = Nationals 6.75 (with was 3S-2T; .70); Jr. Worlds .83 (3S<<; -.6 GOE)
3Z-2T = Nationals 8.00 (solo jump; 1.40 GOE); Jr. Worlds 8.83 (3Z-2T, .8 GOE)
2A= Nationals 7.40 (2A-2T-2Lo; .36 GOE); Jr. Worlds 2.13 (only 2A fall, -1.50 GOE)
LSp = Nationals 4.20 (Level 4; 1.5 GOE); Jr. Worlds 3.33 (level 3; .93 GOE)

At Nationals she got an extra 3.90 points for her spiral sequence (2.00 + 1.90 GOE)

BV = Nationals 56.93 (taking out spiral sequence); Jr. Worlds 50.43
GOE = Nationals 9.78 (taking out sequence); Jr. Worlds 5.59
TES = Nationals 66.61; Jr. Worlds 56.02
PCS = Nationals 64.62; 51.54

So actually, had it not been for the mistakes, her TES score at Jr. Worlds would actually been almost comparable. Most of the inflation, of all things, came on the spin and steps, not the jumps.

Most of the inflation was in PCS.