State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

[Skater Boy]

I think with Karen there is yet another american hopeful to add to the pack - it does look good for now and the future but probably one of the ladies really needs to take the lead. Right now we had Gracie and Ashley battling it out now after 4ccs we see P olina so who knows.

 

[cruzceleste]

It's hard to compare directly with nationals because there she was doing a senior program, which has an extra element.

That said, to answer your question:

* She lost 3.79 in BV and -GOE on the 3S<<
* She lost another 1.50 in -GOE on the fall on the 2A, plus that's typically her 3-jump combo, so she lost another 3.41 in BV points.
* SHe lost -2 in deductions due to the fall
* She also lost .3 in BV for Lsp3 (she can get level 4 on that one)

TOTAL = 11 points

TES= 50.43+ 11= 61.43.

105.66 + 11 = 116.66

She got 135 at nationals, but again, it's not comparable given that it's a national event and there's inflation, plus an extra element.

Thank you. In wikipedia shows that her higgest score is 116, but as you said there is one more element in senior.

 

[Mrs. P]

Thank you. In wikipedia shows that her higgest score is 116, but as you said there is one more element in senior.

Actually I went back and tried the comparison. And I was surprised that the inflation was on the PCS side, not TES. In fact her 3Z-3T and 3F scored better at Jr. Worlds than at Nationals.

 

[b-man]

All this mathematical shuffling is interesting, and may give hope for the future, but the fact remains, on this particular day, Karen got beat by 35 points, didn't break 160, while Medvedeva broke 190. And karen was the best American. Or, in other terms, the best American lost to the 3rd placing Russian by 12 points and to the 3rd placing Japanese skater by 6 points.

 

[Mrs. P]

All this mathematical shuffling is interesting, and may give hope for the future, but the fact remains, on this particular day, Karen got beat by 35 points, didn't break 160, while Medvedeva broke 190. And karen was the best American. Or, in other terms, the best American lost to the 3rd placing Russian by 12 points and to the 3rd placing Japanese skater by 6 points.

For me, I don't see the point of dwelling on one competition. I don't sugar coat that Karen struggled at this competition, but skaters should not be defined by one competition. Otherwise what's the point of watching?

Karen's still relatively young and one competition doesn't necessarily paint the future. I don't think I need to state the obvious that junior success does not always translate to senior success, and vice-versa. (Though obviously there are promising young skaters THAT do follow through).

Besides, the point of the exercise was not to justify her placement, but to simply look at whether she could have realistically scored higher and whether there was a lot of inflation at the national level in TES (which is what people are arguing is giving a false picture of her abilities).

The analysis shows that yes, there was inflation at nationals, most of it was on the PCS side, not on the technical side.

 

[cruzceleste]

Karen's still relatively young and one competition doesn't necessarily paint the future. I don't think I need to state the obvious that junior success does not always translate to senior success, and vice-versa. (Though obviously there are promising young skaters THAT do follow through).

Besides, the point of the exercise was not to justify her placement, but to simply look at whether she could have realistically scored higher and whether there was a lot of inflation at the national level in TES (which is what people are arguing is giving a false picture of her abilities).

Exactly. And thank you Mrs. P.

I ask this kind of questions because I want to know what could have being an ideal score (and placement) and second because we all know that there is national inflation so to do this exercise allow us to know how high this inflation was and what can happen in the future for the skater.

And Mrs. P, I was under the impression that most of the inflation can or almost always come from PCS, because is something more subjective than TCS. I have always believe that some calls (! or e) are more forgiven in nationals, but I will think that inflations is 20% TSC and 80% PCS.

And yes I wouldn´t write off any skater, I was doing that to Micha Gee and he has come fighting this year!

 

[b-man]

Mrs. P, How do you see the GP assignments for the coming season? Last year, the US received 17 slots out of a maximum of 18. I think Wagner, Gold, Edmunds, Hicks, Nagasu, and Cesario will get 2 assignments. If we add Chen to that list, which she deserves, that would be 14 slots. That leaves little left over for the likes of Bell, Cain, Wang, Miller, and maybe others. Also, Gao got two slots last year. I don't know her plans for next year, but she will likely get one assignment if she continues, leaving still less for Bell, Cain, et al.

 

[Icey]

Karen is another one who might fall to overhyping.

 

[Jammers]

I really hope they don't waste a GP spot on Gao. She's most likely done and if not she really didn't do anything this season to justify giving her any GP assignments for next season. And Mirai might only get one GP also.

 

[R.D.]

I thought Gao was retiring?

 

[ice coverage]

I thought Gao was retiring?

Is she?? When did she say so??

Anyway, Happy Birthday to Christina ! She turns 21 today :yay:.

 

[LRK]

Is she?? When did she say so??

Anyway, Happy Birthday to Christina ! She turns 21 today :yay:.

I hadn't heard of her retiring either? My guess it is rumour that has "become fact" somehow - somewhere: "I think Christina should retire" - "She's probably retiring." - "She's retired."

Anyway, be that as it may - Happy birthday, Christina! Have a lovely day, and success in your future endeavours - whether in skating, or other things.

 

[invisiblespiral]

Happy Birthday!

 

[b-man]

Saw an interesting analysis by poster Jlai on the other forum, RE: GP assignments. This analysis was since Chen performed not as well as expected at Junior Worlds, she may only get one initial GP assignment, that USFS will want her to get two assignments and will give her a SA host pics, and this will in turn reduce the chances of Bell, Cain, Wang and others for assignments. This makes some sense, as other Federations may give little weight to Chen's 199 score at Nationals, while her best international score this year is 169 at a JGP.

 

[breathesgelatin]

Mrs. P, How do you see the GP assignments for the coming season? Last year, the US received 17 slots out of a maximum of 18. I think Wagner, Gold, Edmunds, Hicks, Nagasu, and Cesario will get 2 assignments. If we add Chen to that list, which she deserves, that would be 14 slots. That leaves little left over for the likes of Bell, Cain, Wang, Miller, and maybe others. Also, Gao got two slots last year. I don't know her plans for next year, but she will likely get one assignment if she continues, leaving still less for Bell, Cain, et al.

Well, currently Hannah Miller is #23 on the 2014-15 SB list. If she doesn't fall out of the top 24, she'll be guaranteed one GP spot.

Nagasu is actually #33 on the 2014-15 SB list... It's possible she may not get two spots.

 

[Mrs. P]

Saw an interesting analysis by poster Jlai on the other forum, RE: GP assignments. This analysis was since Chen performed not as well as expected at Junior Worlds, she may only get one initial GP assignment, that USFS will want her to get two assignments and will give her a SA host pics, and this will in turn reduce the chances of Bell, Cain, Wang and others for assignments. This makes some sense, as other Federations may give little weight to Chen's 199 score at Nationals, while her best international score this year is 169 at a JGP.

Well, currently Hannah Miller is #23 on the 2014-15 SB list. If she doesn't fall out of the top 24, she'll be guaranteed one GP spot.

Nagasu is actually #33 on the 2014-15 SB list... It's possible she may not get two spots.

Also another thing to keep in mind, is that Wakaba is too young to move up to seniors. And it's not definite whether all the Russian juniors will move up either (namely Sotskova) Karen is the next person to get a spot. The skaters who may move up and beat Karen's SB at this point are Gabrielle Daleman, Nicole Rajicova, Joshi Helgesson and Kira Korpi at Worlds. So at worse Karen would be 29th SB ranked skater. That doesn't guarantee her an assignment but it puts her high on the list to be next in line.

i counted about 4 skaters (Viktoria Helgesson, Mao Asada (if she comes back), Valetina Marchei (if she opts to come back; unlikely given her pairs success) and Haruka Imai who are top 24 on WR but not on SB. So 23 (remember Waukaba is too young) +4 = 27 X 2 assignments each = 54.

There's 72 slots (unless they drop it back again), so there's room for Karen to get two spots, I think.


USA girls who got GP slots last year (initial assignment; in order of nationals placement)
1. Gold -2
2. Edmunds -2
3. Nagasu -2
4. Wagner -2
5. Cesario -1 (ended up with 2 with SA invite)
6. Hicks -2
8. Gao - 2
12. Cain -1
15. Wang -1 (ended up with 2 with RC substitution)

Also contrary to logic, federations may actually be MORE inclined to invite Chen to their GPs because of her poor performance at Jr. Worlds. She may not be seen as a threat to their home country skaters and be invited.

 

[b-man]

Well, currently Hannah Miller is #23 on the 2014-15 SB list. If she doesn't fall out of the top 24, she'll be guaranteed one GP spot.

Nagasu is actually #33 on the 2014-15 SB list... It's possible she may not get two spots.

I would like Miller to get a GP shot. She is 18 now, has never had a senior GP. She finished ahead of Cain and Wang in Greensboro, both who had senior GP's last year. Hannah finished 9th in Greensboro, Cain 14th and Wang a dissappointing 15th, and I don't think Cain or Wang did all that well in their GP's either.

I still think Nagasu will get two. She finished 13th of 38 entries in last years GP standings, and has world standing and SB ahead of a number of other skaters who received 2 assignments. Although she botched her Nationals LP, I don't think those Federations who select GP assigments give much weight to US Nationals results.

 

[Tavi...]

What happened to Tyler Pierce? Was it just nerves? Can she recover from this?

 

[R.D.]

Some people just can't handle the pressure/stress of competing, it's that simple.

Re. Gao: I don't know if she's actually retiring or not, but she was emotional after her Nationals FS - she stood on the ice and soaked it all in, seemed very much like a farewell performance to me.

 

[Mrs. P]

What happened to Tyler Pierce? Was it just nerves? Can she recover from this?

Some people just can't handle the pressure/stress of competing, it's that simple.

I will cut Tyler a break and I think it's WAY to early to say that she can't handle pressure/stress. More accurate way to say is that she's in the learning stage. She's relatively still inexperienced as an international competitor. She competed at one JGP and Jr. Worlds last season and then Jr. Worlds this season. Some will argue that they probably should have send Bradie Tennell, the junior nats champion, but who knows how she would have fared -- she's just as inexperienced internationally (one JGP this season). Anyway that's water under the bridge.

As I've said, one competition shouldn't define a skater going forward. What's important that Tyler learns something from her experience and use it to improve herself as she starts preparations for the 2015-2016 season.