State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

[Tavi...]

Some people just can't handle the pressure/stress of competing, it's that simple.

Re. Gao: I don't know if she's actually retiring or not, but she was emotional after her Nationals FS - she stood on the ice and soaked it all in, seemed very much like a farewell performance to me.

I'm not sure if your first paragraph is responsive to my question, but I would say that it's rarely that simple. Tyler Pierce was seventh at Nats, and was selected for JWC as a result. So clearly she can compete sometimes.

ETA thx Mrs P for your thoughtful comments as always. I also read that she had a new month-old FS, so that may have impacted her.

 

[Mrs. P]

I'm not sure if your first paragraph is responsive to my question, but I would say that it's rarely that simple. Tyler Pierce was seventh at Nats, and was selected for JWC as a result. So clearly she can compete sometimes.

ETA thx Mrs P for your thoughtful comments as always. I also read that she had a new month-old FS, so that may have impacted her.

I do wonder why they decided to change her FS so late in the season. Maybe it was a junior-length FS they've been working on for a while, while her old program was only rehearsed for senior comps. Who knows.

 

[breathesgelatin]

The unfortunate thing is that part of the reason Bradie and Tyler and others don't have a lot of international experience is that the US's number of spots on the JGP was greatly reduced last year because of the results of Junior Worlds 2014. With this year's results, as I understand it, there won't be any improvement... just one spot for US ladies per JGP. Is that correct?

 

[Mrs. P]

The unfortunate thing is that part of the reason Bradie and Tyler and others don't have a lot of international experience is that the US's number of spots on the JGP was greatly reduced last year because of the results of Junior Worlds 2014. With this year's results, as I understand it, there won't be any improvement... just one spot for US ladies per JGP. Is that correct?

That is true. But this year, there is a JGP in the US, which means the US will eligible for two more host spots. The total will be 9 spots. (1 per event, plus 2 spots at JGP USA). Also keep in mind that we might get a few extra spots not used by Kazastahan. (Last year they used 5 out of 7 spots, so I find it hard to believe they would find people for 9 more spots).

Also JGP spots don't guarantee success at junior worlds. See Canada -- who used up all 14 spots and had neither of their skaters qualify for the FS. (And they drop to just 4 JGP spots for next season).

I do feel having reduced JGP spots did force the USFSA to be more prudent on choosing who got one or two spots and forced junior-eligible skaters to move up (if they were able). I think if we had 14 spots, some of them would have actually gone to skaters like Hannah Miller and Mariah Bell, not an actual junior skater.

FWIW, Tyler's JGP event came last season, when the USA had a full roster of spots.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I do wonder why they decided to change her FS so late in the season. Maybe it was a junior-length FS they've been working on for a while, while her old program was only rehearsed for senior comps. Who knows.

I was thinking something similar "Well we have not really had any international experience with this program anyway, why not get jump start on getting that experiences for next season's program." Basically her nationals program just may have not felt like it had the mileage to be worth it, especially if a redo for length was needed.

 

[chuckm]

The unfortunate thing is that part of the reason Bradie and Tyler and others don't have a lot of international experience is that the US's number of spots on the JGP was greatly reduced last year because of the results of Junior Worlds 2014. With this year's results, as I understand it, there won't be any improvement... just one spot for US ladies per JGP. Is that correct?

Perhaps not. The US was the 4th ranked federation after RUS, JPN and KAZ. But KAZ has only 3 or 4 skaters, not enough to fill 14 slots, and as the next fed in line, the US gets any unfilled slots.

Last year, we were 5th behind RUS, JPN, CAN and KOR, and CAN filled all their slots.

 

[chuckm]

Well, currently Hannah Miller is #23 on the 2014-15 SB list. If she doesn't fall out of the top 24, she'll be guaranteed one GP spot.

Nagasu is actually #33 on the 2014-15 SB list... It's possible she may not get two spots.

There are a few ladies competing at Worlds who could knock Miller out of the top 24 on the SB:

Joshi HELGESSON
Kiira KORPI
Gabrielle DALEMAN

By the way, Mirai Nagasu is not only not in the top 24 on the SB list, but she is no longer in the top 24 on the WR list: after 4CC and JW, she is #26, and after Worlds, she could be even lower.

Anyway, we won't know how the WR list for GP selection looks until the 2012/2013 data is scrubbed and the 2013/2014 data is reduced to 70% of its value. That could drop some in the top 24 (Asada, Kostner and Sotnikova, who did not compete this season) and boost younger skaters who didn't compete in 2012/2013 and so didn't lose data (Edmunds, Medvedeva, Sakhanovich). That happens about a month after Worlds.

 

[R.D.]

This week, apparently, USFS is holding Google Hangout sessions with select members of the US World team each evening. Wagner is featured on the Tuesday chat (7:30 ET start), Edmunds on Wednesday (8pm ET start) and Gold on Thursday (8pm ET start).

 

[hippomoomin]

Gao almost retired when she decided to go to college, the year before the Olympic season. She probably reached that decision when she didn't see any improvement in placement at nationals.
I think due to her unexpected podium placement at SA, she saw chances of herself making the Olympic team, and then put off school completely for training. Since she didn't make the team as planned, we assume she should retire for real to focus on school only. My guess is Harvard actually wants her to skate.
But anyway, I don't think she is going anywhere. In the past two seasons, the skating is getting worse. She really embraced herself in China last year. Her LP is terribly constructed. She is not the Gao I can enjoy anymore.

I thought Gao was retiring?

 

[noidont]

Oh, so assuming Turzynbaeva moves up to senior GP next year (will she?), basically KAZ with the rest of their 2 or 3 juniors, USA can very possibly fill up 2 spots at every JGP events?

 

[andyjo24]

Is anyone else worried about Karen Chen's UR/ hooks? I'm afraid she's going to turn out like Mirai when she grows up.

 

[noskates]

There are more things than Karen's UR/hooks that bother me. I don't see that she's grown appreciatively in skill and am giving her a small pass due to her injury. I think she's extremely athletic but doesn't have much more to offer at this point. Skating to the Godfather in a gawdawful costume didn't help either. She needs to slow down a bit between "tricks" and develop some finesse if she's to successfully complete internationally. I think the days of the "jumping bean" are over because there are too many young ladies that can do the jumps and also have the presentation.

 

[Polycon]

Perhaps not. The US was the 4th ranked federation after RUS, JPN and KAZ. But KAZ has only 3 or 4 skaters, not enough to fill 14 slots, and as the next fed in line, the US gets any unfilled slots.

Cause of this
8 Karen CHEN USA 157.30
9 Da Bin CHOI KOR 156.38

 

[StitchMonkey]

Gao almost retired when she decided to go to college, the year before the Olympic season. She probably reached that decision when she didn't see any improvement in placement at nationals.
I think due to her unexpected podium placement at SA, she saw chances of herself making the Olympic team, and then put off school completely for training. Since she didn't make the team as planned, we assume she should retire for real to focus on school only. My guess is Harvard actually wants her to skate.
But anyway, I don't think she is going anywhere. In the past two seasons, the skating is getting worse. She really embraced herself in China last year. Her LP is terribly constructed. She is not the Gao I can enjoy anymore.

I think that is a very interesting take. While they may not pressure her, some schools may still want to be very accommodating if they think it makes them look good to have student athletes completing internationally in a broad range or sports.

I don't mind Gao continuing if she enjoys it and frankly don't think it is that weird for her to even if she is on the decline. She got a trip to China and Japan out of it last year, is that not worth it to some people? I think going to school but still keeping involved enough in the sport to get a few trips around the world to do something you love and push yourself is actually pretty logical.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I don't mind Gao continuing if she enjoys it and frankly don't think it is that weird for her to even if she is on the decline. She got a trip to China and Japan out of it last year, is that not worth it to some people? I think going to school but still keeping involved enough in the sport to get a few trips around the world to do something you love and push yourself is actually pretty logical.

If she is going to school and skating is a hobby that allows her to travel the world, then by all means she should continue as long as she gets assignments. Her results really don't matter because she isn't counting on skating to provide her a living.

 

[Mrs. P]

There are more things than Karen's UR/hooks that bother me. I don't see that she's grown appreciatively in skill and am giving her a small pass due to her injury. I think she's extremely athletic but doesn't have much more to offer at this point. Skating to the Godfather in a gawdawful costume didn't help either. She needs to slow down a bit between "tricks" and develop some finesse if she's to successfully complete internationally. I think the days of the "jumping bean" are over because there are too many young ladies that can do the jumps and also have the presentation.

YMMV, but I don't think Karen is just a jumping bean. I am definitely in the minority, but I like the Godfather program. She has good musicality and nice movements/transitions in between the jumps.

As for URs, her main problem is the 3T in her 2A-3T/3Z-3T combos. She doesn't seem to under rotate on other jumps other than ones that she fall on. She had two URs -- one on the 3Z and the other on the 3S. Out of 9 3Z attempts she only UR on 2 of them. On the 3S, she rotated the jump in her FS earlier in the season. I mark the URs as timing/executing the jump.

 

[StitchMonkey]

If she is going to school and skating is a hobby that allows her to travel the world, then by all means she should continue as long as she gets assignments. Her results really don't matter because she isn't counting on skating to provide her a living.

I really think that is the situation at this point. She enjoys it, she is not damaging her body, if someone is going to offer to fly her around the world to do something she enjoys and has a chance to win money, why not take it? I think a lot of college students would love the opportunities that Christina has.

And to be blunt, we likely do need some skaters like that in the sport. Not everyone can be an Olympian, not everyone be national champion, not everyone can or has to make a living from it. But if we want to sport to survive, we need a variety of skaters. I think skaters like Christina serve a purpose, to show the skating is also something done personally because you love it, not just as a way to get money. I do think that competing internationally is in and of itself getting something out of the sport, so i do see her as getting rewarded for her efforts.

 

[silverlake22]

I really think that is the situation at this point. She enjoys it, she is not damaging her body, if someone is going to offer to fly her around the world to do something she enjoys and has a chance to win money, why not take it? I think a lot of college students would love the opportunities that Christina has.

And to be blunt, we likely do need some skaters like that in the sport. Not everyone can be an Olympian, not everyone be national champion, not everyone can or has to make a living from it. But if we want to sport to survive, we need a variety of skaters. I think skaters like Christina serve a purpose, to show the skating is also something done personally because you love it, not just as a way to get money. I do think that competing internationally is in and of itself getting something out of the sport, so i do see her as getting rewarded for her efforts.

Agree, and even if she wanted just to continue to skate at Nationals, it's still a big accomplishment and a way for her to stay involved in the sport. I meant, even with her bad SP, she placed 11th overall. In the FS she had the 8th highest score of the night, and that was skating in the first warmup. That's pretty impressive for someone who is going to college full time at Harvard. Gao's WS and SB scores were good enough to get her 2 GPs last season, they probably won't be this season, but she might get some senior Bs. She's definitely good enough to be competing at Nationals, and while I agree giving a host pick GP invite to someone like her wouldn't make the most sense at this point, her competing isn't really taking anything away from anyone else so if she wants to continue she might as well.

 

[chuckm]

Oh, so assuming Turzynbaeva moves up to senior GP next year (will she?), basically KAZ with the rest of their 2 or 3 juniors, USA can very possibly fill up 2 spots at every JGP events?

Elizabet just turned 15 in February so she is eligible to move up to the GP next season, but I'm not sure if she will as she is very tiny. Brian Orser is her coach and he may want her to stay one more year in juniors as she has the chance to actually stand on the JW podium next year, or even win, assuming Medvedeva and Sakhanovich will now move up to the GP.

The other KAZ skaters are not in any way outstanding. Last year Aiza Mambekova got two assignments and didn't make top 10 in either. Regina Glazman was given one assignment and didn't make top 10. Evgenia Dolgaleva was scheduled twice but withdrawn.

Elizabet was 11th at 2014 JW, so KAZ got 1 spot in 6 events and they did 'fill' those spots, if you include the scheduling/withdrawing of Dolgaleva as filling the first two spots.

The problem is they can put a name in as scheduled and then withdraw the name at the last possible moment so its too late for someone else to fill the spot. Let's hope they don't do that.

Of course, last year they had only one spot per event to fill and they could play that game. But with two spots per event, it gets harder if you don't have the skaters to fill those spots. Elizabet can fill only two spots, as can Regina, Evgenia, and Aiza. That still leaves 6 empty spots.

Also, remember that one of the events this year is in the US, so we will have 3 spots at our home event in every discipline.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Not just Brian, but I would not be surprised if the Kaz federation somewhat wants her to stay back a year to use those spots. She can fill two and fill them well, they may prefer her to fill those junior spots than move up and leave empty spots.