Just for fun I checked what needs to happen so that Alisa can get to the final.
- Besides Polina either Mitrofanova or Nitaya needs to beat Sakamoto in Poland, so that Sakamoto would not get more than 24 points.
- Obviously Alisa needs to beat Sima in Spain.
- Sima and either Higuchi or Pervushkina needs to beat Honda in Croatia, so that Honda Would not get more than 24 points.
If those three points would happen then Alisa would be the 6th finalist. So, it doesn't look very promising but then again I could see it happening. Sakamoto scored a lot better in her 1st event than those other two but all three skaters scored within 1.5 point in their SP in their 1st event. Sakamoto had a lot better FS than the other two but this time things could be different. I would say both Mitrofanova and Nitaya can be real threats to Sakamoto. We haven't seen Sima yet and the fact that she will skate at the last two events might indicate that she would not be in top form. If so, then Alisa can definitely challenge her because if she can skate her SP like last time and a top of that a clean FS then that could be something Sima can not match. Honda didn't look that great in Colorado although she can definitely score pretty high scores when she skates clean. Anyway, Higuchi can beat her and also Pervushkina has shown that she can score pretty well with a clean programs.
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