Mishin's opinion on components based on Jin | Page 8 | Golden Skate

Mishin's opinion on components based on Jin

Yes let's make this all about Russian conspiracy.
As erlier someone posted, another and more high ranked Russian Lakernik had an opposite view to one expressed by Mishin. Let's not look for Russian warfare where there is none.

I remember when Plushenko fired a salvo about technical difficulty and quads when Lysacek won, so now that the shoe is on the other foot the Russians are singing a different tune? If they hold a consistent position, then they would be more convincing.
 
They aren't singing a different tune. They are just naturally wondering where the differentiation will be once tech scores are so much higher than PCS can be. Mishin's argument is that you can't keep holding Boyang back on PCS because he is a good skater and will keep getting better. So if the judges try to put all the other guys as high 9's and 10 in comparison to Boyang, in order to give them the total points they feel is deserved in comparison, then what is separating the other guys from each other? The PCS becomes much less meaningful.
 
Statistic for 2015-2016 Season so far.....

[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2015-2016 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 TES @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Boyang Jin @CoC[/TD]
[TD]99.60[/TD]
[TD]72.58[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Yuzuru Hanyu @SC[/TD]
[TD]98.35[/TD]
[TD]88.94[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @SC[/TD]
[TD]95.17[/TD]
[TD]95.16[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Shoma Uno @SA[/TD]
[TD]92.35[/TD]
[TD]84.30[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Max Aaron @SA[/TD]
[TD]90.98[/TD]
[TD]81.30[/TD]
[/TR]

[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2015-2016 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 PCS @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @SC[/TD]
[TD]95.17[/TD]
[TD]95.16[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Javier Fernandez @CoC[/TD]
[TD]86.84[/TD]
[TD]91.52[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



Statistic for 2014-2015 Season

[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2014-2015 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 TES @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Yuzuru Hanyu @GPF[/TD]
[TD]103.30[/TD]
[TD]91.78[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Denis Ten @4CC[/TD]
[TD]100.45[/TD]
[TD]91.40[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Denis Ten @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]93.47[/TD]
[TD]88.36[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Javier Fernandez @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]93.10[/TD]
[TD]89.06[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Takahito Mura @SC[/TD]
[TD]91.74[/TD]
[TD]81.50[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Daisuke Murakami @4CC[/TD]
[TD]91.47[/TD]
[TD]82.14[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Joshua Faris @4CC[/TD]
[TD]91.02[/TD]
[TD]84.70[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2014-2015 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 PCS @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Yuzuru Hanyu @GPF[/TD]
[TD]103.30[/TD]
[TD]91.78[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Denis Ten @4CC[/TD]
[TD]100.45[/TD]
[TD]91.40[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



Statistic for 2013-2014 Season

[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2013-2014 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 TES @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Yuzuru Hanyu @GPF[/TD]
[TD]102.03[/TD]
[TD]92.38[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @TEB[/TD]
[TD]100.25[/TD]
[TD]96.50[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Yuzuru Hanyu @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]99.93[/TD]
[TD]91.42[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @GPF[/TD]
[TD]97.13[/TD]
[TD]95.48[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Javier Fernandez @European[/TD]
[TD]96.65[/TD]
[TD]89.42[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Tatsuki Machida @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]93.85[/TD]
[TD]90.20[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Nobunari Oda @GPF[/TD]
[TD]91.58[/TD]
[TD]84.44[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Tatsuki Machida @SA[/TD]
[TD]90.84[/TD]
[TD]83.36[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Max Aaron @SA[/TD]
[TD]90.47[/TD]
[TD]72.98[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2013-2014 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 PCS @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @TEB[/TD]
[TD]100.25[/TD]
[TD]96.50[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @GPF[/TD]
[TD]97.13[/TD]
[TD]95.48[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @Olympic[/TD]
[TD]85.40[/TD]
[TD]92.70[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Yuzuru Hanyu @GPF[/TD]
[TD]102.03[/TD]
[TD]92.38[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Yuzuru Hanyu @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]99.93[/TD]
[TD]91.42[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Daisuke Takahashi @NHK[/TD]
[TD]81.42[/TD]
[TD]91.34[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Javier Fernandez @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]88.33[/TD]
[TD]91.18[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Daisuke Takahashi @Olympic[/TD]
[TD]73.27[/TD]
[TD]91.00[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Yuzuru Hanyu @Olympic[/TD]
[TD]89.66[/TD]
[TD]90.98[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @SC[/TD]
[TD]83.01[/TD]
[TD]90.92[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Tatsuki Machida @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]93.85[/TD]
[TD]90.20[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Statistic for 2012-2013 Season

[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2012-2013 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 TES @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Javier Fernandez @GPF[/TD]
[TD]95.93[/TD]
[TD]82.50[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Kevin Reynolds @4CC[/TD]
[TD]92.21[/TD]
[TD]80.00[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Yuzuru Hanyu @GPF[/TD]
[TD]91.96[/TD]
[TD]85.16[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2012-2013 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 PCS @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @CoR[/TD]
[TD]84.21[/TD]
[TD]92.70[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @GPF[/TD]
[TD]79.75[/TD]
[TD]90.64[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Daisuke Takahashi @GPF[/TD]
[TD]87.89[/TD]
[TD]90.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Statistic for 2011-2012 Season

[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2011-2012 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 TES @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @4CC[/TD]
[TD]95.83[/TD]
[TD]90.16[/TD]
[/TR]


[TR]
[TD]Yuzuru Hanyu @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]91.99[/TD]
[TD]83.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2011-2012 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 PCS @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Daisuke Takahashi @NHK[/TD]
[TD]80.04[/TD]
[TD]90.28[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @4CC[/TD]
[TD]95.83[/TD]
[TD]90.16[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]88.56[/TD]
[TD]90.14[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Statistic for 2010-2011 Season

[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2010-2011 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 TES @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]96.44[/TD]
[TD]91.52[/TD]
[/TR]


[TR]
[TD]Takahiko Kozuka @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]98.53[/TD]
[TD]82.26[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: grid"]

[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]2010-2011 Season[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Skater achieved > 90 PCS @Event[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]FP[/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TES[/TD]
[TD]PCS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

[TR]
[TD]Patrick Chan @Worlds[/TD]
[TD]96.44[/TD]
[TD]91.52[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
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Cool stats Alia...I think Yuzu got +90 TES at WTT as well.
So, over the past few years, more skaters have been able to break the 90 TES barrier than have been able to break the 90PCS barrier.

But does that mean that the system has become unbalanced? Or is it more a matter of skaters choosing to go with their strengths?

-An even more (to me) important question, has there been any skater to break into the 90PCS barrier who has not landed a quad? This is important because it seems that judges have a mental block in awarding high PCS to a skater if they are not landing a quad of some kind, where as if a quad is landed PCS unofficially seems to come along with it if they are technically consistent.
This, more than anything, will encourage skaters to focus primarily on TES rather than try to brush up on their skating skills and presentation.
If you know that as long as you land your jumps consistently, your PCS will slowly rise as well.

I think the judging system is pretty good as it is, but just that the judges are not using it the way it says in the rule-book. If they would be more strict, both in awarding TES and PCS and thinking of both separately...but even then there will be complaints. Since we are human and that's what we do. :laugh:
 
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:hap10:

I'm out hiking now, I will add WTT and two seasons before 2013-2014 and protocol links when I'm back. Now the stats included GPs, GPF, Worlds, 4CC, Olympic and European.
 
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Cool stats Alia...I think Yuzu got +90 TES at WTT as well.
So, over the past few years, more skaters have been able to break the 90 TES barrier than have been able to break the 90PCS barrier.

But does that mean that the system has become unbalanced? Or is it more a matter of skaters choosing to go with their strengths?

-An even more (to me) important question, has there been any skater to break into the 90PCS barrier who has not landed a quad? This is important because it seems that judges have a mental block in awarding high PCS to a skater if they are not landing a quad of some kind, where as if a quad is landed PCS unofficially seems to come along with it if they are technically consistent.
This, more than anything, will encourage skaters to focus primarily on TES rather than try to brush up on their skating skills and presentation.
If you know that as long as you land your jumps consistently, your PCS will slowly rise as well.

I think the judging system is pretty good as it is, but just that the judges are not using it the way it says in the rule-book. If they would be more strict, both in awarding TES and PCS and thinking of both separately...but even then there will be complaints. Since we are human and that's what we do. :laugh:

It means that Takahashi and Machida retired. :biggrin: And people say that PCS are too generous anyway.

It seems to me that judges inoficially take technical difficulty when judging PCS. To some extent it makes sense, it's harder to interpret, execute a technically demanding program. But I agree that judges generally tend to overmark grossly those program in cases when there's really not much in them other than technical, like Elizaveta's or Aaron's. I also think that if somebody took a club to judges' head and beaten it it into them how to apply marks as they were meant to, the situation would improve. The technically strong could still win on TES, nothing wrong with that, but perhaps clean, pleasing programs without crazy laouts would achive higher places... But overall, to be honest, this is what happened at last Worlds, with Jason in 4th and Misha in 6th.

Rising the multiplier would increase the value of good programs and "artistry" (oh god how it pains me to use this word) if the judges actually awarded PCS according to good programs and artistry. But they don't so the problem of overscoring would only get worse.

About the mental block: it may be not a mental block but a conscious choice if they take difficulty into consideration. They look at Jason and think: easy for you to do without a quad, you pull that choreo off with a quad and you'll get a 9.5.
 
I remember when Plushenko fired a salvo about technical difficulty and quads when Lysacek won, so now that the shoe is on the other foot the Russians are singing a different tune? If they hold a consistent position, then they would be more convincing.

Different russians give a different oppinion.
If you read Mishin`s interview, he is not saying it is bad either, he is just saying the current balance may be gone.
As a side note, russian ladies have quite a TES right now. There is a russian lady that jumps 3A (and will keep trying). Just saying.


But ofc, its all russian fault - simply because they dared to open their mouths saying that soon there will be more TES than PCs.
 
It is fine to disagree, that is what the forum is for, to discuss all views including opposing views and even unpopular views ;) ..and even offer the occasional space with those who contribute nothing except trolling with emoticons!


I certain agree with the bold part. That is why i wish to promoted the idea of ZERO tolerance for any inflation and likes to weigh stats according to historical records, identify factors that can contribute to inflation and speculate reasons for inconsistencies. Boosting PCS can be drug, the ultimate dope, and some federations are clearly addicted for that instant gratification and hallucination of glorious nationalist boasting :laugh: . I have always believed there should be some sort of re calibration process in between big events as part of the Quality Assurance process to monitor consistent judging, but oh well.

Max's PCS in 2012/13 season suffered as he was seen as the 5th/6th skater from US (There's Jeremy, Adam, Jason. Josh and possibly Dornbush above him) had US federation pulled their muscle behind him as their top quads contender like his Russian counterpart, his PCS would have received the boost like Jason did. Not as high, but at least enough to be competitive internationally. I find judges can be a bit fickle like that.

Look at this year's SA marks, there's only 4 marks PCS separate Max and Jason. You can argue Max had overall better package this year from last, but I would hardly say it is 11+ points worth better (average mark you quoted 70s PCS vs 81.30 he received @SA15) In anycase an US inflation of 10 doesn't mean much when there's 13 points separate him and Jason PLUS it also removes any advantage he has having 13.56 higher TES in BV. The 30 points inflation I refer to are the Total score difference he received at home vs internationally.

2013-201 season

Nebelhorn trophy 228.43
Skate America 231.03
Olympics 238.37
US Nationals 270.08

2014-2015 season
Nebelhorn Trophy 237.17
Skate America 234.17
Cup of Russia 235.56
US Nationals 274.98

And by the way if 93 doesn't matter, everyone should be getting them at their nationals, but why they are not? It tells you something. I suspect if the results is predetermined, they had no choice but to inflate Jason so much so that he can

1. Appear strong and competitive as other world class skaters.
2. Clearly signal Jason is US's #fav rising star while Jeremy is being 'faded out' to offset his PCS advantages. They pretty much equalized in PCS which to me is ridiculous.
3. Offset any BV of Max's TES advantage which comes down to 13+ points higher. Plus broaden their gap through GOE and PCS.
4. A little bit of a cultural/nationality tradition/clash at stake. The biggest rivalry from Vancouver was the idea a well rounded skater without quads and good transitions like Lysacek deserve to beat Plushy.... well who's more Lysacek and Plushy than Jason and Max among US men?

Anyways back to Boyang... certainly the most exciting young skater we have seen since Hanyu. Hanyu already pretty much had the package for me since his debut.. Boyang has a long way to go, but the improvements he has shown from last is already noticeable and encouraging. He need better programs and better artistic directions and mentorship. Hanyu absorbs a great deal from his favourite skaters, I am curious who are Boyang's favs.

OS - We're all entitled to our opinions, yes, but all I can say is that your "suspicions" as to why Jason received high scores at US nationals this year and last are completely unsupported. You also cherry-pick your data and ignore facts. Among other things, you manage to ignore the fact that Jason's ISU personal best, achieved in 2015, is 263.17 (SP 86.48 + FS 176.69). I don't know why you would bother to write three long, convoluted, theoretical posts about "inflated" PCS when in fact, you condone reputation based PCS inflation for everyone except Jason. It would be more honest for you simply to state that you don't like him and move on. Really.
 
An even more (to me) important question, has there been any skater to break into the 90 PCS barrier who has not landed a quad?

I can sort of see, though, why doing quads and other highlight elements might legitimately increase scores in P&E, choreography and interpretation. The choreography might be better if it contains moments of technical fireworks, you can celebrate a musical climax with a quad,, etc.

Suppose a skater decided to do no jumps, spins, or footwork in his program, but skated beautifully, interpreted the music, etc. I don't think that this skater would get 9's in PCS, for the reason that the program was unsupported by technical highlights, did not make use of the full range of the skating vocabulary, etc.

(OT, but am I remembering correctly that one time a pairs team had to withdraw from the LP due to injury. As a courtesy to the audience, they came out on the ice and took a bow. They got 0 in TES, but one judge gave them 0.25 in choreography and P&E. "It was a nice bow." :yes: )
 
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I can sort of see, though, why doing quads and other highlight elements might legitimately increase scores in P&E, choreography and interpretation. The choreography might be better if it contains moments of technical fireworks, you can hit a quad on musical climax, etc.

Suppose a skater decided to do no jumps, spins, or footwork in his program, but skated beautifully, interpreted the music, etc. I don't think that this skater would get 9's in PCS, for the reason that the program was unsupported by technical highlights, did not make use of the full range of the skating vocabulary, etc.

(OT, but am I remembering correctly that one time a pairs team had to withdraw from the LP due to injury. As a courtesy to the audience, they came out on the ice and took a bow. They got 0 in TES, but one judge gave them 0.25 in choreography. "It was a nice bow." :yes: )

Yes, I'm undecided about this myself. A skater would have to be SUPER exceptional to break 90PCS without a quad...but I'd like to think that it is theoretically possible. Technical fireworks does lend a certain wow-factor to a program. Boyang's program is much enhanced by his quads.
Yuzu's perfectly, musically timed 3As are more impressive than a 2A or a 1A in the same place.
 
Jason Brown was close at World Team Trophy last season with 89.14. I feel like Patrick Chan And Daisuke Takahashi did their non-quad programs today they could have rightly earned 90+ but PCS scores were on the low side in the 2006-2010 quad.
 
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OS - We're all entitled to our opinions, yes, but all I can say is that your "suspicions" as to why Jason received high scores at US nationals this year and last are completely unsupported. You also cherry-pick your data and ignore facts. Among other things, you manage to ignore the fact that Jason's ISU personal best, achieved in 2015, is 263.17 (SP 86.48 + FS 176.69). I don't know why you would bother to write three long, convoluted, theoretical posts about "inflated" PCS when in fact, you condone reputation based PCS inflation for everyone except Jason. It would be more honest for you simply to state that you don't like him and move on. Really.

And it will be more honest of you to simply admit you love Jason too much and not able to being objectively enough to admit he was massively overscored for his US nationals. To the point it made it unfair for others competing against him.

Actually if you follow my posts in the US men thread, Jason's inflated scoring began in 2013/14 season. I'd have state the same had Hanyu received his 2015 PCS in 2013 season without having to earn it out right? (In fact I did, if you visit the Japanese Nationals 2013 threads on this forum when he won over Daisuke). It is not about cherry picking facts, it is about looking at them objectively. Reputation does matter to scoring... whether you like it or not but the skater have to EARN IT. Jeremy earned his PCS through years of work, Jason had not. As a relative new skater making their season debut not even competed at senior WC or having any major titles to show for it, he received 94 PCS for his quadless program is simply too high. Just refer to the post #143 The real world standards are there in black and white.

Shoma for example I'd rate a much more talented skater than Jason (actually have the medals to show for it including a Junior World Championship), and his PCS at Skate Canada was only 84, and it has already been described as being far too high by many posters on this forum for a youngster, so how can you say PCS 94 is not high back in 2013 and is right??

It is not about cherry picking facts, it is about looking at them objectively. I realise it must be easier to brand me a hater than admit that infact Jason Brown is hugely propped up in PCS, but the records are all there in black and white and people can judge for themselves.
 
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And it will be more honest of you to simply admit you love Jason too much and not able to being objectively enough to admit he was massively overscored for his US nationals. To the point it made it unfair for others competing against him.

Actually if you follow my posts in the US men thread, Jason's inflated scoring began in 2013/14 season. I'd have state the same had Hanyu received his 2015 PCS in 2013 season without having to earn it out right? (In fact I did, if you visit the Japanese Nationals 2013 threads on this forum when he won over Daisuke). It is not about cherry picking facts, it is about looking at them objectively. Reputation does matter to scoring... whether you like it or not but the skater have to EARN IT. Jeremy earned his PCS through years of work, Jason had not. As a relative new skater making their season debut not even competed at senior WC or having any major titles to show for it, he received 94 PCS for his quadless program is simply too high. Just refer to the post 143 The real world standards are there in black and white.

Shoma for example I'd rate a much more talented skater than Jason (actually have the medals to show for it including a Junior World Championship), and his PCS at Skate Canada was only 84, and it has already been described as being far too high by many posters on this forum for a youngster, so how can you say 94 is not high back in 2013 and is right??

It is not about cherry picking facts, it is about looking at them objectively. I realise it must be easier to brand me a hater than admit that infact Jason Brown is hugely propped up in PCS, but the records are all there in black and white and people can judge for themselves.

Jason also had a very good junior career. He didn't have the World Junior title, but he did win the free skate (and silver overall) in 2013 with a record junior men score that lasted for more than a season. He also won the junior Grand Prix final in 2012 beating Joshua Farris, Yan Han and Maxim Kovtun.

I don't have the time to do this right now, but I think Jason has always scored well in PCS relative to his U.S. counterparts, which kept him in the game as a junior despite, back then, a lack of a 3A.
 
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Jason also had a very good junior career. He didn't have the World Junior title, but he did win the free skate (and silver overall) in 2013 with a record junior men score that lasted for more than a season. He also won the junior Grand Prix final in 2012 bragging Joshua Farris, Yan Han and Maxim Kovtun.

I don't have the time to do this right now, but I think Jason has always scored well in PCS relative to his U.S. counterparts, which kept him in the game as a junior despite, back then, a lack of a 3A.

I do appreciate you mention Jason had a moderate successful Junior career, but put it this way, had Shoma been given 94 PCS today even with 2 quads, i'd have easily say he is over scored.
 
Thank you alia jackson for the compilation and tabulation of the TES and PCS exceeding 90 from the last few years.

Some observations:

1. The capable field became smaller in 2014-15 due to the sabbatical leave of Chan, and retirement Takahashi, Oda, and Machida, in that order of influence, but saw Mura, Murakami and Faris join the high TES club and Ten in both TES and PCS though none made frequent presence.


2. This early in the current season, 2015-16, two new and very young Men, Jin and Uno have already achieved 90+ in TES but with relatively low PCS. The imbalance is easy to understand at their age and increase in PCS, and in TES, can be expected of them.


3. The ratio of 90+ TES vs 90+ PCS:

2013-14 - 9:11
2014-15 - 7:2
2015-16 - 5:2 so far


4. Performances of TES>PCS vs PCS>TES

2013-14 - 9 : 4 (All 90+ TES exceed PCS)
2014-15 - 7:0
2015-16 - 5:1 so far


5. 3 Men have scored over 100 TES: Hanyu, Ten, and Chan.


6. Only Chan has scored over 95 PCS.


7. Only Chan, Hanyu, Ten, Murakami, and Machida have scored both TES and PCS over 90 in one performance. Only Chan and Hanyu have done so multiple times.


8 Difference in TES vs PCS:

Chan: 0.01-7.91 Difference greatest with lowest TES and TSS i.e. Under performance.

Hanyu: 0.32 - 11.52 Difference greatest with highest TES and TSS i.e. Peak performance.

Fernandez: 4.04 - 7.23 Never both TES and PCS over 90

Ten: 5.11 -9.05 His only two performances with at least TES over 90

Jin: 27.02 The biggest difference.


9. PCS are more consistent than TES.

Hanyu 90.98 - 92.38 except for SC 2015 (88.94)

Chan: 95.16 - 96.50 except SC 2013 (90.98)


My conclusion:

The trend is higher TES and greater imbalance.

Chan and Hanyu are the two highest and consistent scorers, with Chan being the most balanced.
 
I do appreciate you mention Jason had a moderate successful Junior career, but put it this way, had Shoma been given 94 PCS today even with 2 quads, i'd have easily say he is over scored.

I had originally thought of reposting the argument I presented in the U.S. Men's thread, but I decided against it. It is clear you have a firm view on this.

So I think we will have to agree to disagree regarding your argument. I have attempted to see what you see in the interest of cognitive dissonance, but I don't think it's as black and white as you insist. Moving on.
 
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As a sidenote for the analysis, we need to keep in mind the high variablity.
For example, Chan was out in 2014 - that totally skews the numbers already ;)
 
My own observations:

1) So there were many many TES achieved that were >Jin over the past season, why is it a crisis *NOW* and not back when quite a few competitions skaters were exceeding 100 TES? Wouldn't the breach of the 100+ TES be the catalyst for this talk of imbalance, with TES exceeding the 100 cap for PCS?

2) It appears in 2013-2014 there were more >90 PCS awarded vs >90 TES awarded, of course those were the seasons leading up to Sochi and the final lineup of the Olympic hopefuls. Everyone's PCS played catch-up with their performances and TES.

In 2014-2015, the trend reversed.

As Violet Bliss pointed out, many veteran high PCS skaters retired, eg. Machida, Oda, Takahashi, and the breakouts like Aaron and newcomers like Shoma, Farris, Jason, Han and Jin arrived on the Senior's circuit.

The new podium skaters all have PCS in the 70s-80s, while their TES are in high 80s to 90s.

Do I think there's something "unbalanced", that TES is too high?

No, because newly arrived skaters normally do not receive high 90s PCS in their first or second seasons, while their TES are already in the high 80s or 90s due to their layout. As their careers progress leading up to the Olympics, naturally their PCS will increase, like they did for Yuzuru, Javier and Dennis.

Only Patrick, Yuzuru, Javier and Dennis enjoy a closely matched high TES/PCS ratio, they are of course veterans of the Olympics and Worlds.


Yuzuru's TES and PCS were in similar territory in 2013 until his PCS shot up from 80s to high 90s leading to Sochi.

My conclusion is the opposite - these new skaters, Shoma, Mura, Aaron, Jin, Han, still have a long way to go to earn their PCS, even though they are skating programs that are as difficult as the Sochi veterans and no, Jin's 99 TES is not something to be worried about, especially as many have already scored higher than 100 TES at least for 2 years now with no hysterical outbursts or seismic after effect on the sports.

I really see Jin as being SINGLED out here for the brouhaha, as the higher TES vs PCS trend had begun before he even skated his first Senior's.

With his low 70s PCS, the lowest out of the current crop of new skaters on the Seniors' scene, it means that Jin is in fact quite unlikely to progress far, even if he were to skate clean. Shoma, Mura, Aaron, Jason, are all way ahead, not to mention Patrick, Yuzuru, Javier, Dennis. He might match or exceed them in TES but their PCS gap means he has to throw in a couple more quads before he can even touch their scores if they skate clean. I think Jin will end up in a convalescent home before he can add another superhuman quad combo or two.

Thank you for the charts, they are very telling.
 
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As a sidenote for the analysis, we need to keep in mind the high variablity.
For example, Chan was out in 2014 - that totally skews the numbers already ;)

I disagree on any significant effect of Chan's absence on the ratios and the trends. Absence of Chan and Takahashi contributed to lower total on 90+ PCS numbers and Takahashi especially on PCS>TES numbers, but Hanyu has added numbers on both TES and PCS and the newer club members all show TES>PCS stats. Chan's return so far has given us the most balanced stat, 95.17 TES:95.16 PCS. He can be expected to add to both TES and PCS, some TES>PCS numbers if he does well this season but probably still the least to the imbalance trend.
 
I disagree on any significant effect of Chan's absence on the ratios and the trends. Absence of Chan and Takahashi contributed to lower total on 90+ PCS numbers and Takahashi especially on PCS>TES numbers, but Hanyu has added numbers on both TES and PCS and the newer club members all show TES>PCS stats. Chan's return so far has given us the most balanced stat, 95.17 TES:95.16 PCS. He can be expected to add to both TES and PCS, some TES>PCS numbers if he does well this season but probably still the least to the imbalance trend.

Not pointing out specifically to Chan =) Basically, those statistics are very not stable, as they are extreme values and depend big time of one of those skaters being there and actually doing his best - for example, Hanyu may fall tons but his PCs will be still high.

Also, just setting 90 is not a good thing - you arbitrarily crop values, while scores, specially PCs, can vary big time from competition to competition and from year to year just because judges are weird. For example, in 2014-2015, i recall there was quite a number of PCs close to 90, like 88.xx - are those not exceptional? Is there some fundamental difference? Is there some difference between 90 achieved in one competition and 89 achieved in another?

At any rate, I agree with the trend you described. Not a big issue now as its close, but in a couple of years, yeah may be.


As for people who say Boyang is singled, he isnt. Basically, he just has a higher TES potential than everybody else, so it started ringing a bell that things may get weird at some point.
 
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