State of U.S. Ladies' skating 2016-17

[frida80]

I felt the same way. I didn't think any of the medalists were particularly out of this world and yet there was a 45-point gap between Paganini and 1st place and more than a 25-point gap between the podium and her. And this is with Paganini rotating a triple-triple in both programs. It looks like points were left on the table in terms of spin levels and there were jumping errors, but no major meltdown. So, why is the disparity so massive? It's a bit depressing.

No need to be depressed. There are a lot of reasons that Alexia didn't place and all of them are fixable. First this is Alexia's first year in Junior and she managed to score in the top 6 in her first Grand Prix. With nearly 150, no less. I'd say that's quite the accomplishment already.

The reason why Alexia has such a gap between her and the podium is because of her programs. Even if she skated clearly in both programs, she would've scored around 165. About ~60 in the short and ~102-105 in the long. Her base value is 52.69 in her log and she has an average PCS at around 50. Her +GOE before being offset with her errors was 2.72. So she has a fairly good program, it's just not competitive at an international level.

This is where Alexia lost points. First her lay out is too much like her nationals layout from last year with one 2A added in. She does a 3T+3T instead of a 3z+3T like her short. She has four jumps in the first half and no triple triple in the second half like the podium ladies.She also loses points on her footwork and spins. She lost a full point on her ending combo spin. Just for fun, I changed her layout to something that would be more challenging for her but still doable based on what she did in her short program.

Original ---------> New
2A ------------->3F
3T+3T---------->3Lz+3T
3Lz ------------->FCCoSp4
3Lo-------------->StSq4
FCCoSp4-------->3Lz
StSq3----------->3Lo
3lo+2t---------->2A+1/2L+3S
3S+1/2L+2S--->3Lo
2A--------------->2A
FCUSp4--------->FCLSp4
CCoSp2--------->CCoSp4
BV=52.66------->BV=61.6

See? A 9 point difference! BTW, Zatigova's BV was 61.9! However, just having a more competitive program and skating cleanly would've gotten her on the podium. Skating both her current short program cleanly and program with a layout like this would've put her in the ~175 range. So next year, Alexia should focus on increasing the difficulty in her long program and improving her spins, footwork, choreography, and performance. If she fix these issues, next year she'll be more competitive.

As for how to beat someone like Alina Zatigova or Polina Tsurskaya, I think the only answer is full backloading and tanos plus massive jumps. Who knows, maybe Vivian will give these ladies a run for their money in Seniors next year.

 

[kwanatic]

There is quite a lot of slanted scoring going on. I take nothing away from Alina in terms of TES but the fact that there was such a massive gap between her and both Japanese girls in PCS is all the proof I need that the scoring at this event was wrong.

Alina was brilliant on the technical side. On the PCS side of things I thought she was decent but not worth what she received. The judges have a habit of pumping up PCS based on the strength of the TES and vice versa. It's messed up. Just b/c she landed all of her jumps in the bonus does not mean she was the strongest in terms of PCS. She wasn't. If the scoring were fair, Rin would have had the highest PCS...but it would have been by about a point or two...not by more than 4 points. That was a ridiculous margin.

The ladies field is advancing in terms of the difficulty and I think that's great. However, I do have an issue with the current scoring trend. Higher TES = High PCS. It is possible for someone to score nearly 70 points in TES and only be worth a 53 or 54 in PCS. The judges don't need to bump up the scores so that the TES and PCS are proportional.

It comes down to the scoring and the amount of stuff that's supposed to be evaluated versus what the judges see and actually score. A judge can remember whether or not a 3Lz-3T was landed easier than they can remember enough about the routine they watched to evaluate all of the bullet points the PCS is supposed to measure. The simplified version of scoring is if the skater hit X amount of jumps cleanly then they get shoved into a PCS range, even if they didn't actually demonstrate skills on the ice worth that number.

Across the board the IJS has gotten a bit out of control. I'm expecting to see some kind of overhaul to the system after 2018 :noshake: I'd honestly like to see a split panel of judges: technical judges and program component judges. One group's sole purpose is to judge the technical portion for the whole time the skater is on the ice; the other panel spends the entirety of the performance thoroughly evaluating the program components. That's what I'd like to see...

 

[hippomoomin]

Before talking about a place on the podium, I think Alexia first has to keep her jumps. Her current jumps relie on fast rotation, with very little distance. Since she is only 14, more than likely she will grow quite a lot in the next few years. She might keep her small build later as Samantha Cesario did; if not, she will lose her jumps. She does not have much transitions in her jumps. She just naturally looks graceful.

 

[frida80]

Before talking about a place on the podium, I think Alexia first has to keep her jumps. Her current jumps relie on fast rotation, with very little distance. Since she is only 14, more than likely she will grow quite a lot in the next few years. She might keep her small build later as Samantha Cesario did; if not, she will lose her jumps. She does not have much transitions in her jumps. She just naturally looks graceful.

I'm not too worried about that. Right now she's practicing her 4S. It's still painfully underrotated and I doubt she'll get it. But studying the technique to get the height and snap of quads will help her adjust her jumps during puberty.

 

[noidont]

Zagitova's component score was less than a point higher than Sakamoto in short program, who also skated clean. The major difference is transition, which Eteri skaters pack on. I say her PCS in the long is too high compared to last season's skaters, but in this field it's justifiable relatively. Sakamoto missed jumps which affected her performance quality in the second half of her program. Her SS score is only a few tenths lower than Zagitova. I think their skating skill is about on the same level, while Nitaya seems a lot slower and stiff. Zags probably got overscored by less than a point in PCS since that program is ridiculous, but I can see the ridiculousness being interpreted as eyeopening for the judges.

Paganini wasn't very impressive. Skating skill is not there. Jump techniques looks questionable. US juniors are really in trouble. I wonder whether it's because all the good Russian coaches went back about ten years ago?

 

[chuckm]

There is quite a lot of slanted scoring going on. I take nothing away from Alina in terms of TES but the fact that there was such a massive gap between her and both Japanese girls in PCS is all the proof I need that the scoring at this event was wrong.

Alina was brilliant on the technical side. On the PCS side of things I thought she was decent but not worth what she received. The judges have a habit of pumping up PCS based on the strength of the TES and vice versa. It's messed up. Just b/c she landed all of her jumps in the bonus does not mean she was the strongest in terms of PCS. She wasn't. If the scoring were fair, Rin would have had the highest PCS...but it would have been by about a point or two...not by more than 4 points. That was a ridiculous margin.

The ladies field is advancing in terms of the difficulty and I think that's great. However, I do have an issue with the current scoring trend. Higher TES = High PCS. It is possible for someone to score nearly 70 points in TES and only be worth a 53 or 54 in PCS. The judges don't need to bump up the scores so that the TES and PCS are proportional.

It comes down to the scoring and the amount of stuff that's supposed to be evaluated versus what the judges see and actually score. A judge can remember whether or not a 3Lz-3T was landed easier than they can remember enough about the routine they watched to evaluate all of the bullet points the PCS is supposed to measure. The simplified version of scoring is if the skater hit X amount of jumps cleanly then they get shoved into a PCS range, even if they didn't actually demonstrate skills on the ice worth that number.

Across the board the IJS has gotten a bit out of control. I'm expecting to see some kind of overhaul to the system after 2018 :noshake: I'd honestly like to see a split panel of judges: technical judges and program component judges. One group's sole purpose is to judge the technical portion for the whole time the skater is on the ice; the other panel spends the entirety of the performance thoroughly evaluating the program components. That's what I'd like to see...

If you look at the Ladies judging panel at JGP St Gervais, in the SP you will see that it is quite unbalanced: 3 judges from former SSRs (RUS, KAZ, LAT), four European judges (FIN, SUI, FRA, GER) and two from the far east (JPN, HKG).

There was a slightly different panel for the FS: 3 former SSRs (KAZ, LAT, RUS), 4 from other European countries, one from HKG---and a USA judge instead of the JPN judge. Still unbalanced.

I thought Zagitova's SP was quite good. OTOH, while her FS may have had lots of technical content, her posture was horrible, piked at the waist throughout, most notably when she was about to jump. One can question why she rated a PCS score more than 4 points higher than Rin Nitaya.

I looked at the protocol and came up with this information, based on the seating position of the judges/judge number.

For ZAGITOVA:
HIGHEST PCS SCORES (highest first) RUS, KAZ, LAT/USA
LOWEST PCS SCORES (lowest first) FIN FRA SUI GER/HKG

HIGHEST GOE (highest first) SUI RUS LAT KAZ
LOWEST GOE (lowest first) FIN HKG USA GER/FRA

For NITAYA

HIGHEST PCS SCORES (highest first) KAZ USA GER FIN
LOWEST PCS SCORES (lowest first) RUS LAT HKG/SUI FRA

HIGHEST GOE (highest first) KAZ/GER/FRA
LOWEST GOE (lowest first) RUS FIN/USA LAT

The only judge who gave Nitaya higher PCS scores than Zagitova was the Finnish judge.
Judges' PCS scores for Nitaya that were only slightly lower (1 point or less) than those given to Zagitova: GER, KAZ, USA
Judges' PCS scores for Nitaya that were significantly lower (4-7 points or more) than those given to Zagitova: RUS LAT

 

[topaz emerald]

Zagitova's component score was less than a point higher than Sakamoto in short program, who also skated clean. The major difference is transition, which Eteri skaters pack on. I say her PCS in the long is too high compared to last season's skaters, but in this field it's justifiable relatively. Sakamoto missed jumps which affected her performance quality in the second half of her program. Her SS score is only a few tenths lower than Zagitova. I think their skating skill is about on the same level, while Nitaya seems a lot slower and stiff. Zags probably got overscored by less than a point in PCS since that program is ridiculous, but I can see the ridiculousness being interpreted as eyeopening for the judges.

Paganini wasn't very impressive. Skating skill is not there. Jump techniques looks questionable. US juniors are really in trouble. I wonder whether it's because all the good Russian coaches went back about ten years ago?

I don't think so....I think right now there is this trend of judges giving high scores to an influx of young russian ladies doing triple triple combinations and backloading their jumps plus tanoes. I have seen these young russian girls, and many can do triple triples, but they don't look effortless and their landings don't have good flow. That's why I don't understand the huge gap in points between them and other skaters. I have not seen one russian junior or senior girl that actually performs and has good music and choreography. The only russian girl that I have been slightly impressed with is Anna Pogorilaya, but even I think sometimes her artistry and choreography is not there, and obviously she's had trouble with consistency. I don't know what it is...maybe they just are producing a large pool of young junior girls, who have coaches that focus on maximizing points, rather than focusing on technique, music, and performance. I guess what I'm saying is I have not been impressed with any of them, yet they keep making it to the top of the podium. Maybe it's because they just don't fall on their jumps, and other skaters do.

 

[hippomoomin]

I happen to like the Russian school of choreography, typically lots of transitions, and sometimes give the impress of being too busy. Even though sometimes they look busy, they are harder to perform, and should be rewarded. Also most Russian ladies have good posture, substantial dance training, and amazing spins, even when jumps are put away.
Yes, their flow could be better, but you have to land 3-3 first. Russia just has more young talents fully dedicated to training, who have more competitions at an early age.

[/B]

I don't think so....I think right now there is this trend of judges giving high scores to an influx of young russian ladies doing triple triple combinations and backloading their jumps plus tanoes. I have seen these young russian girls, and many can do triple triples, but they don't look effortless and their landings don't have good flow. That's why I don't understand the huge gap in points between them and other skaters. I have not seen one russian junior or senior girl that actually performs and has good music and choreography. The only russian girl that I have been slightly impressed with is Anna Pogorilaya, but even I think sometimes her artistry and choreography is not there, and obviously she's had trouble with consistency. I don't know what it is...maybe they just are producing a large pool of young junior girls, who have coaches that focus on maximizing points, rather than focusing on technique, music, and performance. I guess what I'm saying is I have not been impressed with any of them, yet they keep making it to the top of the podium. Maybe it's because they just don't fall on their jumps, and other skaters do.

 

[KatGrace1925]

I happen to like the Russian school of choreography, typically lots of transitions, and sometimes give the impress of being too busy. Even though sometimes they look busy, they are harder to perform, and should be rewarded. Also most Russian ladies have good posture, substantial dance training, and amazing spins, even when jumps are put away.
Yes, their flow could be better, but you have to land 3-3 first. Russia just has more young talents fully dedicated to training, who have more competitions at an early age.

I completely diasagree about the Russians good posture. They may have dance training but their posture is severely lacking. They may do hard programs but the programs are boring and lackluster due to lack of flow. I think the Russian Ice Skaters actually would benefit to learn something from the Russian gymnasts about grace. I just don't see girls like Elena Radionova and her slumped posture as nice to watch, Adelina Sotnikova looks like she needs dance training, Evgenia Medvedeva has great posture but her programs are boring, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva has horrible posture and Anna Pogolyria has some beauty to her skating but her programs are boring. Most of the time I don't understand the PCS scores these girls get. The only one I exclude from these is Julia Lipintskaya, she seems like she had dance traning and she's graceful, but she's has consistency problems.

I don't see how different the Russians are from their competitors at the junior level. I don't understand why the judging seems to tack massive points on to every Russian's PCS but it is what it is. Ice Skating is subjective and it can never be accurate. I think our Juniors are fine, most US ladies just seem like late bloomers. Hopefully we'll have someone who flies up the ranks in a couple years but at this point I don't know who.

 

[Tavi...]

Umm, since this is the US ladies thread, why are 7 of the last 9 posts about Russian and Japanese skaters? While I respect your interest in the subject, would you mind taking it to a more appropriate thread such as the ones for the JGP France competition, Russian ladies, Japanese ladies, etc.?

 

[topaz emerald]

I completely diasagree about the Russians good posture. They may have dance training but their posture is severely lacking. They may do hard programs but the programs are boring and lackluster due to lack of flow. I think the Russian Ice Skaters actually would benefit to learn something from the Russian gymnasts about grace. I just don't see girls like Elena Radionova and her slumped posture as nice to watch, Adelina Sotnikova looks like she needs dance training, Evgenia Medvedeva has great posture but her programs are boring, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva has horrible posture and Anna Pogolyria has some beauty to her skating but her programs are boring. Most of the time I don't understand the PCS scores these girls get. The only one I exclude from these is Julia Lipintskaya, she seems like she had dance traning and she's graceful, but she's has consistency problems.

I don't see how different the Russians are from their competitors at the junior level. I don't understand why the judging seems to tack massive points on to every Russian's PCS but it is what it is. Ice Skating is subjective and it can never be accurate. I think our Juniors are fine, most US ladies just seem like late bloomers. Hopefully we'll have someone who flies up the ranks in a couple years but at this point I don't know who.

I completely agree with you. Might I add the sport is not only subjective, but political.

 

[TangoTraumatica]

Umm, since this is the US ladies thread, why are 7 of the last 9 posts about Russian and Japanese skaters? While I respect your interest in the subject, would you mind taking it to a more appropriate thread such as the ones for the JGP France competition, Russian ladies, Japanese ladies, etc.?

Ashley's Music Issues: Yes, it's a bit scary that she doesn't have SP music yet, but there's no way that'll be the case for much longer, and she's become musical enough from her training with John Nicks that I'm sure she call pull off the short turnaround. I imagine she's been using this time to train her long, so that once she has the short she can focus on it.

Gracie's Jump Layout: I like putting the 2A in front of her big 3-3. It makes sense for a lot of skaters to put an easy, comfortable element early in the program to help them get their sea-legs, shake off adrenaline jitters, and get a little early confidence boost. The repeated 3F is...questionable. Unless her flip has seen major improvements over the summer, I doubt this will work out well for her. I'd rather see her repeat the loop for greater GOE.

My Two Cents about the Russians: I disagree that they have good posture - they generally tend to be quite sway-backed. The Russian choreographic style seems to use a lot of arms to hide the fact that there isn't much going on transition-wise or musically. There are Russian skaters who I adore watching, and who have had lovely musical programs, but the arm-waving is distracting. That being said, I agree that we should move this discussion to a new thread!

 

[temadd]

Ashley's Music Issues: Yes, it's a bit scary that she doesn't have SP music yet, but there's no way that'll be the case for much longer, and she's become musical enough from her training with John Nicks that I'm sure she call pull off the short turnaround. I imagine she's been using this time to train her long, so that once she has the short she can focus on it.

Gracie's Jump Layout: I like putting the 2A in front of her big 3-3. It makes sense for a lot of skaters to put an easy, comfortable element early in the program to help them get their sea-legs, shake off adrenaline jitters, and get a little early confidence boost. The repeated 3F is...questionable. Unless her flip has seen major improvements over the summer, I doubt this will work out well for her. I'd rather see her repeat the loop for greater GOE.

My Two Cents about the Russians: I disagree that they have good posture - they generally tend to be quite sway-backed. The Russian choreographic style seems to use a lot of arms to hide the fact that there isn't much going on transition-wise or musically. There are Russian skaters who I adore watching, and who have had lovely musical programs, but the arm-waving is distracting. That being said, I agree that we should move this discussion to a new thread!

Ashley's Wagner announced her SP music last week. Sweet Dreams are Made of This - Eurythmics

 

[TangoTraumatica]

Ashley's Wagner announced her SP music last week. Sweet Dreams are Made of This - Eurythmics

Whoops! I'm late to the game! Thanks for letting me know

 

[KatGrace1925]

I completely agree with you. Might I add the sport is not only subjective, but political.

And that is the reason the US population has lost interest in the sport. The politics make people mad, they make me mad at times but I love watching it so of course I stay. I think the US ladies are doing great, and I hope we get more consistency soon.

 

[topaz emerald]

And that is the reason the US population has lost interest in the sport. The politics make people mad, they make me mad at times but I love watching it so of course I stay. I think the US ladies are doing great, and I hope we get more consistency soon.

I have hope for the US ladies and Ice dance teams. I think in the next couple of years, two young US ladies will take over for Gracie, Ashley and Polina. And I think our dance teams are on par with top contenders, or will be....I'm not sure about men's field and pairs.

 

[andromache]

I have hope for the US ladies and Ice dance teams. I think in the next couple of years, two young US ladies will take over for Gracie, Ashley and Polina. And I think our dance teams are on par with top contenders, or will be....I'm not sure about men's field and pairs.

I'd actually say that men and dance look most hopeful for the US. Not trying to be down on you or your opinions, but, just as an example, juniors ice dance teams from the US have been kicking butt, as have Nathan Chen, Vincent Zhou, and Tomoki Hiwatashi in men's juniors. Our ladies juniors are less stacked at the moment. And US pairs....look about as hopeful as US pairs usually do.

 

[topaz emerald]

I'd actually say that men and dance look most hopeful for the US. Not trying to be down on you or your opinions, but, just as an example, juniors ice dance teams from the US have been kicking butt, as have Nathan Chen, Vincent Zhou, and Tomoki Hiwatashi in men's juniors. Our ladies juniors are less stacked at the moment. And US pairs....look about as hopeful as US pairs usually do.

I know we are not stacked in US ladies, but it looks promising for two US skaters, who are still very young, if they continue to develop in the next few years...I am talking about Kaitlyn nguyen and Alysa Liu. Out of the three boys, I'd say Vincent is our best hope, but he's had surgery? and lacks a triple axel, needs more knee bend....too stiff sometimes.

Maybe nathan can compete with international skaters if he can maintain his quads, but he lacks a triple axel, and needs softer knees.

 

[topaz emerald]

I know we are not stacked in US ladies, but it looks promising for two US skaters, who are still very young, if they continue to develop in the next few years...I am talking about Kaitlyn nguyen and Alysa Liu. Out of the three boys, I'd say Vincent is our best hope, but he's had surgery? and lacks a triple axel, needs more knee bend....too stiff sometimes.

Maybe nathan can compete with international skaters if he can maintain his quads, but he lacks a triple axel, and needs softer knees.

I meant nathan, not vincent...

 

[chuckm]

US Pair Chelsea Liu/ Brian Johnson won the bronze medal at the JGP in the Czech Republic yesterday, and as expected, Lorraine McNamara / Quinn Carpenter won the gold medal.
Today, Alexei Krasnozhon won the silver medal for the US, beating Roman Savosin (RUS), who won gold last week in France.
Megan Wessenberg didn't win a medal, but she did finish 6th. She was the only one in the top six who was not Russian, Japanese or Korean.

BTW, Vincent Zhou DOES have a 3a, but he doesn't hit it 100% of the time. He also has a 4S. He made it to the JGPF last year, his first year in the JGP ever, so he has to be considered a medal threat.