2016 Cup of China Data Analysis - Men

[cathlen]

LOL... i was called out about the 38 list.... apparently, not allowed to go 39... or

But you are correct, I am done with trying to shed light on how things "could" be seen by others, especially since well, apparently how I understand things is not valid I am just texting a bunch of friends now and will hit the town.... my list out of figure skating is way above 38 and i count on expanding it MUAHAHA

Not allowed!

I agree that Boyang jumps were not as perfect as we know he can do them, I'm okay with GOE. Maybe with time he will start doing all of them tano like Evgenia to receive +3

Sometimes I think people refuse to acknowledge that higher difficulty content, does not mean higher quality.... (and that quality of skating, transitions matter too, if you want high PCS), and not only in Men Singles.

 

[4everchan]

I'd be shocked if Jin started doing Tanos.... i have noticed he bends his head backwards when he jumps... how could he do a tano??? and actually, would judges be picky and penalize him for bending his head ? I wonder about the strain it may put on his neck too...

i agree with all of your post... except for non-allowance in expansion MUAHAHA

Not allowed!

I agree that Boyang jumps were not as perfect as we know he can do them, I'm okay with GOE. Maybe with time he will start doing all of them tano like Evgenia to receive +3

Sometimes I think people refuse to acknowledge that higher difficulty content, does not mean higher quality.... (and that quality of skating, transitions matter too, if you want high PCS), and not only in Men Singles.

 

[cathlen]

I'd be shocked if Jin started doing Tanos.... i have noticed he bends his head backwards when he jumps... how could he do a tano??? and actually, would judges be picky and penalize him for bending his head ? I wonder about the strain it may put on his neck too...

i agree with all of your post... except for non-allowance in expansion MUAHAHA

You never know with tanos. I did not expected to see it from Kailani Craine, but she did it twice on 2A in Free skate at Warsaw Cup I'm not saying Boyang will start doing it in near future, but I think he will compete at least till 2022 Olympics in Beijing, so plenty of time to correct his head position and I could totally see it with his easier jumps. Actually, it's kind of weird that Ladies are using the COP system so much better than Men. I think there are plenty of Men who could try adding one or two tano in theirs programs to get higher GOE, I mean, apart of Adam Rippon who is already doing Rippon 3Lz.

Last time you said I was too late, when they allowed you 38, so I intervene now, before you add another skater to your list

 

[4everchan]

i'm fine with 38 one day i should sit down and write that list down so we are all clear about what's mine and what's left LOL

Of course, in 5-6 years, a lot can change... I am just wondering if it's possible for BJ to not bend his head backwards.... and for tanos, I don't think it's possible to do it, while bending that head backwards... it would put even more strain on the neck... in full rotation speed and with the heavy landings, combined with his naturally slender frame, it would be a lot of unnecessary stress for his spine.

And which easy jumps??? he doesn't even do a triple loop anymore lol... perhaps on 2t or 3t in the combos. I think some men are doing that as well.

I personally think there should be a limit of tanos to one or two passes a program. It's like the spins : only one can have a jump in them. Otherwise, we would see butterfly entrances all the time to add levels..

You never know with tanos. I did not expected to see it from Kailani Craine, but she did it twice on 2A in Free skate at Warsaw Cup I'm not saying Boyang will start doing it in near future, but I think he will compete at least till 2022 Olympics in Beijing, so plenty of time to correct his head position and I could totally see it with his easier jumps. Actually, it's kind of weird that Ladies are using the COP system so much better than Men. I think there are plenty of Men who could try adding one or two tano in theirs programs to get higher GOE, I mean, apart of Adam Rippon who is already doing Rippon 3Lz.

Last time you said I was too late, when they allowed you 38, so I intervene now, before you add another skater to your list

 

[SamuraiKike]

Thank Geek on Ice for the hard work. I like to do that kind of analysis myself but to post it with such didactic presentation here is also very helpful.

 

[sowcow]

... I am just wondering if it's possible for BJ, to not bend his head backwards....

Ha ha ... someone must have a really big ...um... 'blade' ... to cause their partners head to need to bend backwards!:rofl2:


Signed,
A dirty mind

 

[qwertyskates]

My understanding of Boyang's GOE comes from seeing the protocols

...However, I'd be surprised you would find +3 there for many of these passes.

Again, we are looking at the same skate and arriving at different conclusions, which I think it's fine. I am not asking for +3, however many were as good as Patrick's or Han Yan's and they weren't given any +GOEs at all.

Not allowed!


Sometimes I think people refuse to acknowledge that higher difficulty content, does not mean higher quality.... (and that quality of skating, transitions matter too, if you want high PCS), and not only in Men Singles.

Please bear in mind that half of the judges, including a Czech, a Japanese and a New Zealand judge, agreed with me and disagreed with you.

It wasn't at all unanimous or clearcut that Jin shouldn't have won COC. The judges disagreed 5:4. After all, he lost by 1+ point, so if one agrees with the results then one must also acknowledge that judges deemed Jin's performance at COC a close shave to Patrick's, it's not as "lackluster" as many on GS put it.

We are all caught up in our beliefs that we hold them as absolute truths but in fact we need to be open minded that the other person who disagrees with us can be right. All we can say is again we agree to disagree - it is just as valid to say some see quality while others refuse to see any quality. The bias could easily be on the other side against Jin.

Those who placed Boyang behind included a Canadian, a Russian, an American, an Israeli. Samohin had yet to skate, 3 Americans, Nathan, Rippon, Jason and 1 Russian, Kolyada are direct rivals of Jin vying for the last GPF spot, whereas Shoma is already assured of his place, as is Chan, whether he receives Silver or Gold. I believe the Polish, Czech, Japanese and New Zealand judges gave the most neutral scores.

 

[4everchan]

Ha ha ... someone must have a really big ...um... 'blade' ... to cause their partners head to need to bend backwards!:rofl2:


Signed,
A dirty mind

nice one... that will teach for using boyang's initials you should join us in competition threads.. fellow canadians talked dirty last weekend... we had lots of fun ..too many hot men in skating

 

[ancientpeas]

Because the Canadian judge felt that there was no way P. Chan could lose to Chen, Rippon or Brown or Kolyada? He could and he can.

The fact is that's he's probably going lose to Shoma, Hanyu and Fernandez unless he pulls the rabbit out of the proverbial hat and lands all his jumps. Would the Canadian judge really engage in such chicanery just to ensure P. Chan places 4th in the grand prix final? I mean I know some of you think Canadians are all 1920s movie villains complete with mustache twirling but seriously?

Jin didn't make the GPF because he fell on a jump. He lands that jump he goes. No judge made him miss that jump. Unless you believe in the voodoo doll theory.

This place needs a tin foil hat emoji.

 

[Geek On Ice]

I'm so glad to see that there are lots of discussion goin on! I only wish I had more time to read everything and join you guys, but I'm such a slow reader/writer!! :

Anyway, I just wanted to let you guys know that I'm working on this analysis for the past GPS events this year now, it may take sometime, but I'll post them as soon as they are done! I think it will be even more interesting if we can compare b/w past events!! :yay:

 

[qwertyskates]

Because the Canadian judge felt that there was no way P. Chan could lose to Chen, Rippon or Brown or Kolyada? He could and he can.

The fact is that's he's probably going lose to Shoma, Hanyu and Fernandez unless he pulls the rabbit out of the proverbial hat and lands all his jumps. Would the Canadian judge really engage in such chicanery just to ensure P. Chan places 4th in the grand prix final? I mean I know some of you think Canadians are all 1920s movie villains complete with mustache twirling but seriously?

Jin didn't make the GPF because he fell on a jump. He lands that jump he goes. No judge made him miss that jump. Unless you believe in the voodoo doll theory.

This place needs a tin foil hat emoji.

What are you talking about? The GPF isn't here, so whatever happens at GPF will happen.

At COC, the Canadian judge and the Chinese judge understandably privileged their respective skaters scores. It's about the scores of the other judges and the fact that the American and Russian judges will definitely know that if Jin is out of GPF their own skaters have a chance getting into GPF.

This has nothing to do with whom will win at GPF, no one can predict that, but whom will qualify for those precious GPF spots as we inch closer to the Olympics.

It seems that you see only the flaws of Jin (that fall) but prefer to ignore the flaws of Chan. Are you really sure that you're unbiased?

In both SP and FS at CoC, Jin did a flawless SP, fell on a jump, and had a hand down at FS. Chan had a hand down in SP, popped a jump, his 3A downgraded to 2A, and in the FS, he had a fall.

Definitely, Chan made more technical mistakes (4) than Jin (2), had accrued lower BV TES and he won by PCS and +GOE alone over Jin (which is controversial as it can be subjective) coming from behind due to a huge BV deficit in the SP.

Another fact is that the judges were split 5:4, the win is only 1+ pt, one of the most minimal wins I've seen yet, so are those judges also wearing tinfoil hats?

Almost half of the judges thought Jin should have won over Chan.

We can disagree but let's not get personal. We are simply as split as these judges, and we all have our own theories, as do these judges.

 

[ancientpeas]

your post

Sorry. I was actually trying to be funny. Maybe in a bit of a pointed way. I just suddenly got the image of the twirling mustache villain and wanted to go with it. Sometimes I can get arch.

I've actually said I think Jin should be going to finals (I think I've said it half a dozen times). I think Chan should have won the LP and Jin should have have won overall. If I'm saying that I'm either saying that they marked Jin too harshly or Chan was over scored relative to Jin, IMO. I think what I was taking issue with was the conspiracy theory stuff. I seriously doubt the American, Russian and Canadian judges conspired to keep Jin out of the GPF. What was I trying to say is that the Canadian judge would only do this if they thought that there was no way Chan could lose to any of the remaining options and that he could lose to any of them is just as likely as losing to Jin. He was already in the GPF so lowballing Jin to keep him out doesn't improve Chan's chances of winning. If that makes sense.

Long story made short: I was saying that I found the conspiracy theory unlikely and was trying to be funny about it.

I have no problem with people having their own opinions about the scoring. That is, of course, their right and their opinion has just as much, if not more, validity as mine. And my point about Jin and the jump he fell on was simply that if he had landed it he would have gone to the GPF and so the main reason he didn't go was because he didn't land that jump because then his score would have been that much higher. I'm sad he's not going. I think he deserved to go. But I don't think there was so conspiracy on the part of the judges in order to keep him out.

 

[qwertyskates]

Sorry. I was actually trying to be funny. Maybe in a bit of a pointed way. I just suddenly got the image of the twirling mustache villain and wanted to go with it. Sometimes I can get arch.

I've actually said I think Jin should be going to finals (I think I've said it half a dozen times). I think Chan should have won the LP and Jin should have have won overall. If I'm saying that I'm either saying that they marked Jin too harshly or Chan was over scored relative to Jin, IMO. I think what I was taking issue with was the conspiracy theory stuff. I seriously doubt the American, Russian and Canadian judges conspired to keep Jin out of the GPF. What was I trying to say is that the Canadian judge would only do this if they thought that there was no way Chan could lose to any of the remaining options and that he could lose to any of them is just as likely as losing to Jin. He was already in the GPF so lowballing Jin to keep him out doesn't improve Chan's chances of winning. If that makes sense.

Long story made short: I was saying that I found the conspiracy theory unlikely and was trying to be funny about it.

I have no problem with people having their own opinions about the scoring. That is, of course, their right and their opinion has just as much, if not more, validity as mine. And my point about Jin and the jump he fell on was simply that if he had landed it he would have gone to the GPF and so the main reason he didn't go was because he didn't land that jump because then his score would have been that much higher. I'm sad he's not going. I think he deserved to go. But I don't think there was so conspiracy on the part of the judges in order to keep him out.

Ah, ok, I took your comment seriously. Apologies for that, I didn't get the humour because I do believe some actually might feel that way.
The Canadian judge give Patrick 24+ points over Jin in the FS, that's actually way off what any of the other judges gave, considering they both had a fall. That is too obvious.
If Jin gets Silver, Adam is immediately a shoo-in for GPF, unless Jason and Nathan or Kolyada perform even better at NHK. So with Jin missing Gold by 1+ point, and the anomaly in the judging, including the American's judge's score, it isn't outlandish to imagine that an American or Russian judge would be glad to give Jin the nudge off the GPF spot in favour of their own.

Favouring one's own would be considered by most as a natural impetus, not something extraordinary.

What you wrote about Jin can be turned around for Patrick as well.

If Jin fell and Patrick didn't, I'd agree that Patrick with 3 mistakes overall instead of 4 and a 100% clean FS vs a 2 mistake Jin would win without as much controversy, even though Jin's BV is 20+ points over Patrick's BV.

However, THEY BOTH FELL in the FS on their quads.

We both agree on the placement though, Patrick wins FS because he skated better and Jin wins overall by a very slim margin because his SP was spectacular, and Patrick made 3 jump errors in the SP.

This would mean Jin beats Adam to the GPF spot, unless Jason, Nathan or Kolyada did better.

I feel really bad for Jin, he really made an effort and this would boost his chances at the Olympics.

I'm 100% sure Yuzu will be in, and it's Yuzu, Patrick and Javier again vying for the podium, but Shoma and Jason could sneak past if any of the 3 had a misshap. Hope they don't, I love them all! They each have qualities that I adore. Actually, I wish there is a pure artistry podium for skaters like Brezina who are excellent performers but not jumpers.

 

[ancientpeas]

Ah, ok, I took your comment seriously. Apologies for that, I didn't get the humour because I do believe some actually might feel that way.
The Canadian judge give Patrick 24+ points over Jin in the FS, that's actually way off what any of the other judges gave, considering they both had a fall. That is too obvious.
If Jin gets Silver, Adam is immediately a shoo-in for GPF, unless Jason and Nathan or Kolyada perform even better at NHK. So with Jin missing Gold by 1+ point, and the anomaly in the judging, including the American's judge's score, it isn't outlandish to imagine that an American or Russian judge would be glad to give Jin the nudge off the GPF spot in favour of their own.

Favouring one's own would be considered by most as a natural impetus, not something extraordinary.

What you wrote about Jin can be turned around for Patrick as well.

If Jin fell and Patrick didn't, I'd agree that Patrick with 3 mistakes overall instead of 4 and a 100% clean FS vs a 2 mistake Jin would win without as much controversy, even though Jin's BV is 20+ points over Patrick's BV.

However, THEY BOTH FELL in the FS on their quads.

We both agree on the placement though, Patrick wins FS because he skated better and Jin wins overall by a very slim margin because his SP was spectacular, and Patrick made 3 jump errors in the SP.

This would mean Jin beats Adam to the GPF spot, unless Jason, Nathan or Kolyada did better.

I feel really bad for Jin, he really made an effort and this would boost his chances at the Olympics.

I'm 100% sure Yuzu will be in, and it's Yuzu, Patrick and Javier again vying for the podium, but Shoma and Jason could sneak past if any of the 3 had a misshap. Hope they don't, I love them all! They each have qualities that I adore. Actually, I wish there is a pure artistry podium for skaters like Brezina who are excellent performers but not jumpers.

I'm glad we agree on the final placement. All I meant about Jin and the fall was that if he lands that jump then his point total makes his winning overall impossible to deny. If he lands it he wins overall and if he misses it, as he did here, he comes second.

I've always thought that I'd want them all to skate cleanly (Hanyu, Fernandez, Chan, Shoma, Jin and any of the other top skaters) and see what happens but now I'm not so sure because it seems that might cause an implosion amongst fans. Taste is so subjective.

 

[qwertyskates]

I'm glad we agree on the final placement. All I meant about Jin and the fall was that if he lands that jump then his point total makes his winning overall impossible to deny. If he lands it he wins overall and if he misses it, as he did here, he comes second.

I've always thought that I'd want them all to skate cleanly (Hanyu, Fernandez, Chan, Shoma, Jin and any of the other top skaters) and see what happens but now I'm not so sure because it seems that might cause an implosion amongst fans. Taste is so subjective.

Ah, I agree, I really want an ALL CLEAN competition, because that would be like going nuclear :eeking:

I really wonder...as a mind experiment, what would the podium look like?

 

[ancientpeas]

My gut (and this is purely my gut) is:
Hanyu
Chan
Fernandez

I have a 60s era bunker relatively near my house called The Defenbunker that is now a musuem. I will retreat to there in case of an all clean competetion.

 

[qwertyskates]

My gut (and this is purely my gut) is:
Hanyu
Chan
Fernandez

I have a 60s era bunker relatively near my house called The Defenbunker that is now a musuem. I will retreat to there in case of an all clean competetion.

If Hanyu didn't pick a rather weak FS music, even though I do love Joe Hisaishi's Okuribito's score, I'd place him above Chan too, as I find Patrick's music rather bland this season. Javier's Elvis is too commercial, cheesy, deja vu....:disapp:

So if it's Seimei vs Journey (Seimei wins), or Rachmaninov/4 Seasons vs Joe Hisaishi (Classic Warhorse wins), I'd be more certain. If Javier manages to wake the crowds up with his Elvis impersonation, then maybe he will be 3-time champion.

All 3 didn't put out SOMETHING SPECIAL this round, imho.

 

[Mrs. P]

If Hanyu didn't pick a rather weak FS music, even though I do love Joe Hisaishi's Okuribito's score, I'd place him above Chan too, as I find Patrick's music rather bland this season. Javier's Elvis is too commercial, cheesy, deja vu....:disapp:

So if it's Seimei vs Journey (Seimei wins), or Rachmaninov/4 Seasons vs Joe Hisaishi (Classic Warhorse wins), I'd be more certain. If Javier manages to wake the crowds up with his Elvis impersonation, then maybe he will be 3-time champion.

All 3 didn't put out SOMETHING SPECIAL this round, imho.

I still think there will be a surprise medalist that will debunk one of those three.

 

[qwertyskates]

I still think there will be a surprise medalist that will debunk one of those three.

I think I know just whom is this Mystery Gentleman you have in mind!

 

[Mrs. P]

I think I know just whom is this Mystery Gentleman you have in mind!

Actually, I haven't thought about any specific. I just like surprises -- and good competition.

Honestly though, I think it would be fun to see Boyang do it again (and move up); I like that kid. It would be fun to see Jason do it for the mind-blown-nobody-saw-this-coming-mode that has come with his career. I wouldn't be surprised if Shoma won cause he's quite the competitor.

But I guess I'm veering off the discussion flow--cause the speculation is who would win if clean. I guess I'd stick with Hanyu-Chan-Fernandez too with Shoma and Boyang playing spoiler.