Who will break out at 2017 US Nationals?

[Nathan13]

With just under 2 months to go, is there anyone who will make a surprise leap or make a huge impression? Or is it going to be the same predictable people at the top? Either way it will be an exciting year to watch. Here's my thoughts on potential break out stars:

Ladies:
For the first time since before Sochi, there is room for new faces on the podium. I fully expect Polina to withdraw, so are Gracie and Ashley still the favorites? Of course Ashley will be, despite her recent slap on the wrist for URs. I do feel that USFSA is looking to crown a new starlet, so I would put Karen Chen and Mariah Bell in the mix for surprise silver medals. I'm also looking out for Katie McBeath and Franchesca Chiera to make the top 10.

Men:
The top four is pretty much a given. Grant does not seem to be in as good as form as last year, so I'm thinking Tim Dolensky is in a great position to snag 5th. However, I also think Vincent Zhou will be hungry to make a statement, especially since he missed the JGPF by one placement. I am also thinking a big placement jump is possible for Sean Rabbitt.

Pairs:
I've got my eye on Stellato and Bartholomay; I think they can challenge Castelli/Tran for the Pewter position.

Dance:
If we agree that Hawayek and Baker have broken through already and are a safe bet for Pewter, I think that Pogrebinsky/Benoit are in a good position for 5th, and will make a strong case for their future--which is smart considering the Junior teams that are looking to move up in the near future. I don't see anyone breaking the top 3 from last year.

 

[skylark]

I agree with your projections for Ladies, Men, and Dance. Especially Elliana Pogrebinsky/Alex Benoit; I think they're fabulous and ready for a leap. I'd love to see Daniel Kulenkamp move up from 10th, but it's hard to see space for it, and I haven't seen him skate this year.

Pairs: I'm watching Ashley Cain and Timothy LuDuc. They've already beaten Kayne/O'Shea and Denney/Frazier once this season. I don't expect them to do that at nationals, but they're more than ready to challenge Castelli/Tran. Plus, I'm excited about them as a pair; they're showing such dedication and attention to line, extension, and unison. They've made huge leaps since being partnered 6 months ago! I like Stellato/Bartholomay too, and am looking for them to be in the top 5 or 6. Of the top six, there's a lot of potential for uncertainty in placements. Exciting!

 

[Nathan13]

Pairs: I'm watching Ashley Cain and Timothy LuDuc. They've already beaten Kayne/O'Shea and Denney/Frazier once this season. I don't expect them to do that at nationals, but they're more than ready to challenge Castelli/Tran. Plus, I'm excited about them as a pair; they're showing such dedication and attention to line, extension, and unison. They've made huge leaps since being partnered 6 months ago! I like Stellato/Bartholomay too, and am looking for them to be in the top 5 or 6. Of the top six, there's a lot of potential for uncertainty in placements. Exciting!

Definitely...I actually wrote my first post before Golden Spin, and they are clearly on the rise. I currently would consider them contenders for silver--none of the teams are especially consistent, so it will come down to who skates to their full potential on the day. Castelli and Tran I think will have a difficult time making the top four, unfortunately--they have so much potential, but they have not been able to put it all together this season. I have them in 6th in my current predictions list, behind Stellato and Bartholomay.

I'm also interested in seeing what Kayne and O'Shea can do...I still marvel at their 2016 Nationals performances...not a step out of place that entire competition. They haven't been able to reach that level since then, which stinks because I have no doubt they could have been Grand Prix finalists if they did. Maybe Nationals is just *their* competition. They are going to be fighting off a fully healed Scimeca/Knierim (who I think will handily win) as well as Cain/LeDuc and Denney/Frazier.

 

[cheerknithanson]

I'm going to do juniors on my list because why not. Also since the future is in juniors in a way.

Men's: I feel like Alexei Krasnozhon. Nathan Chen already broke out last year at senior nationals and the GP/GPF. Vincent Zhou may break out. But I'm saying Alexei. I'm not sure if he's doing seniors or juniors for nationals. But I'm excited to see how he'll do. Hopefully he'll land a 4Lo. Eric Sjoberg may break out at junior nationals as well. He won novice last year by a mile. He has promise. When he gets a 3A, and clean, he could be a threat in the future.

Ladies: I honestly don't know. I'm going to go to juniors for this again. Lol. I say Alexia Paganini. She can do 3-3 combos decently.

Pairs: Yes I'm going to go to juniors for this. Chelsea Liu/Brian Johnson. This is their last year as juniors (As Brian will be too old next year), and they're getting better and better. They have great lifts, jumps are a little iffy, but they're clearly the best junior pairs team in the USA this season. So they'll have to prove they can compete with seniors next year. And I think once their jumps and throw jumps get more consistent, they'll be there. They're the pairs team I'm looking for.

Dance: I'm hoping McNamara/Carpenter will show again they're threats for the future. Some dance rhythms and some programs might work, some might not. But I'm betting they'll be ready. Also the Parsons are dominating the juniors this season it seems in a way. So hopefully they'll get their first (And only) junior national title. Since it's their last year of eligibility for juniors. Last year was a starting point for both teams. Let's hope this nationals will show that they'll be the force after 2018 Worlds.

 

[Biellmann]

I'm not counting on Gracie, her confidence is gone
Ashley? Yes.
Maybe Karen Chen.
Courtney? I don't think so.
Mariah Bell? Who knows

The men, well, i guess Nathan Chen already peaked at the GPF ( i don't think he can skate his LP clean again), maybe Jason Brown is going to win again, who knows

 

[Crossover]

I'll probably be excited for the men, pairs and ice dance, but not so much for ladies. I think one of the reasons that the board is very subdued and not cheerful unlike the last year is lackluster and disappointing outcomes of Ashley and Gracie. Ashley might bounce back but Gracie, I don't know. She may need more time to shape up, but time is ticking. I honestly didn't get impressed much by Mariah Bell at Skate America, but it was still good to see that the mid field in the U.S. is packed with skaters to make a breakthough internationally if they are on. I don't know she can repeat that kind of performance at Nationals though considering her wild consistency. On the other hand, Karen Chen at NHK was a joy to watch despite some mistakes, so I personally wish her do well. Mirai is always a dark horse at Nationals.

My top priority for the Nationals is whose's going to make the World team in men although it would be Nathan and one of Jason/Adam/Max. They already made big breakthroughs, so I think the torch for new stars in men is up to how the current juniors compete against seniors. I hope Vincent Zhou, Andrew Torgashev, Alexei Krasnozhon do well.

The pair field will be more unpredictable. If Scimeca and Knierim coming back from her injury are still not in form, Denney/Frazier can be new U.S. champions but I don't count out Kayne/O'Shea yet as their NHK FS outing proved why they are current reigning U.S pair champion.

As for dance, yep just see my avatar! :luv17: I will be thrilled if Hawayek and Baker can stand on the podium with a bronze medal. I used to like Hubbell and Donohue a lot, but their programs since moving to Montreal are disappointing. I don't know why the team doesn't have their own identity as dancers.

 

[MIM]

Ladies;

Gracie; I still think Gracie can pull this off. And if she does the redemption skate, it will he at the nationals.
Ashley; she will be the first if not the second after Gracie.

Bell and Chen; I think they are the exciting talents. I like Karen's packaging, and Mariah's improvement on her jumps.
Nagasu; I will love her skate regardless the results.
Hicks; I hope my powerful lady skater moves up someday like Gabby did this season. With a new coach, I really want her to put together the LP!!

Men;
Let the best men be on the podium...
For juniors, I hope to see little bit more of polished skating from Alexei, personalities from Andrew, and clean jumps from Vincent. They are all exciting talents.

Pairs;
I became a fan of D/F this season. I love Denney so much and hope they do their best.

Dance;
This will be the most exciting event along with men's.
Shibs, C/B, H/D and H/B I love shibs SD, h/d and h/b's FD, C/B's gala.

 

[shiroKJ]

Gracie always has her best skates at Nationals...I wouldn't count her out completely.

The showdown in ladies and men will be interesting.
For dance, I'm here for the Shibs and C/B's SD

P.S. I'm hoping for more gems like my profile pic.

 

[Nathan13]

Ladies;

Gracie; I still think Gracie can pull this off. And if she does the redemption skate, it will he at the nationals.
Ashley; she will be the first if not the second after Gracie.

That would be an epic comeback, because it would come out of nowhere. It would certainly rattle Golden Skaters I must say, Gracie has sounded much more positive lately than she did after worlds. Maybe it really is physical injury/unpreparedness that has held her back this season. I hope we get to see at least one clean program from her in KC.

 

[skylark]

Definitely...I actually wrote my first post before Golden Spin, and they are clearly on the rise. I currently would consider them contenders for silver--none of the teams are especially consistent, so it will come down to who skates to their full potential on the day. Castelli and Tran I think will have a difficult time making the top four, unfortunately--they have so much potential, but they have not been able to put it all together this season. I have them in 6th in my current predictions list, behind Stellato and Bartholomay.

I'm also interested in seeing what Kayne and O'Shea can do...I still marvel at their 2016 Nationals performances...not a step out of place that entire competition. They haven't been able to reach that level since then, which stinks because I have no doubt they could have been Grand Prix finalists if they did. Maybe Nationals is just *their* competition. They are going to be fighting off a fully healed Scimeca/Knierim (who I think will handily win) as well as Cain/LeDuc and Denney/Frazier.

Yes, I did realize you wrote the OP before GSpin. I've been impressed with Cain/Leduc all along the way since last summer; they improved steadily. They also show such passion and joy in their skating; I think they really appreciate the chance to skate pairs again. They're on fire.

Totally agree with you about Tarah and Danny. How I wish they could've built on their nationals skates; it would have been awesome to have them at GPF. But Haven and Brandon were way closer. I love their FS. The thing about Tarah and Danny's skates at nationals was that in both programs, they were last to skate and the only ones who skated clean. The impact was electric. I heard someone comment that Jim Peterson's pairs tend to peak at nationals.

I still feel that no one's placement is clear, and for once rather than pulling for one or two, I'm pulling for five or six. I even re-watched Marissa/Mervin a couple days ago, and they're clearly not on track with their jumps, but they have such dynamism in their skating. C/T, K/O, D/F and S/K have had their break-throughs, but things are somewhat fluid in US pairs.

 

[skylark]

I'll probably be excited for the men, pairs and ice dance, but not so much for ladies. I think one of the reasons that the board is very subdued and not cheerful unlike the last year is lackluster and disappointing outcomes of Ashley and Gracie. Ashley might bounce back but Gracie, I don't know. She may need more time to shape up, but time is ticking. I honestly didn't get impressed much by Mariah Bell at Skate America, but it was still good to see that the mid field in the U.S. is packed with skaters to make a breakthough internationally if they are on. I don't know she can repeat that kind of performance at Nationals though considering her wild consistency. On the other hand, Karen Chen at NHK was a joy to watch despite some mistakes, so I personally wish her do well. Mirai is always a dark horse at Nationals.

My top priority for the Nationals is whose's going to make the World team in men although it would be Nathan and one of Jason/Adam/Max. They already made big breakthroughs, so I think the torch for new stars in men is up to how the current juniors compete against seniors. I hope Vincent Zhou, Andrew Torgashev, Alexei Krasnozhon do well.

The pair field will be more unpredictable. If Scimeca and Knierim coming back from her injury are still not in form, Denney/Frazier can be new U.S. champions but I don't count out Kayne/O'Shea yet as their NHK FS outing proved why they are current reigning U.S pair champion.

As for dance, yep just see my avatar! :luv17: I will be thrilled if Hawayek and Baker can stand on the podium with a bronze medal. I used to like Hubbell and Donohue a lot, but their programs since moving to Montreal are disappointing. I don't know why the team doesn't have their own identity as dancers.

That seems like a good analysis of the dilemma H/D are in. I'm with you about Hawayek/Baker. Their FD is truly a Dream of Love; they're in the dream. I hope they move ahead of H/D this year ... I wonder if their youth holds them back? .... you'd think the dance discipline would have moved past that, with P/C.

I happened to watch part of the NBC gpf coverage yesterday. There was a half-minute spot of Gracie and Ashley. Gracie sounded positive, but said that coming in as national champion would give her a feeling of pride come January. That disturbed me, as it sounded like she's still locating her self-esteem outside herself. But I agree that nationals is usually her best event, and at least one good program there will be great for her confidence. I don't doubt her ability to make the podium if she can have a mental breakthrough ... to bring back onto topic!

In Ashley's few seconds, she said again that she has so much more she wants to do in her career, and that provides a great push for her. That attitude seems healthy. I hope and believe that she'll be able to surge forward again in January and carry through at Worlds. I really want her to show the world that CoC was just a bad skate (and an atypical tech caller) and she deserves her place as a contender.

 

[skylark]

Speaking of breaking out ... I feel it's huge for American Pairs that Kayne/O'Shea are getting recognized for their synchronization in jumps and overall skating, matching stride and lines (by B.Esp.). I'm also thrilled that Cain/LeDuc are paying strong attention to all those things; it shows!

 

[Sugarpova]

I used to like Hubbell and Donohue a lot, but their programs since moving to Montreal are disappointing. I don't know why the team doesn't have their own identity as dancers.

TAT actually said the same in her broadcast the difference being that she never saw any individuality

My hopes for US NAts is on Ashley, Nathan, Parsons & Tarah/Danny

 

[sarama]

Apart from Dance, ANYTHING could happen at this year's nationals, so a lot of skaters will have a chance to really shine. Really I don't think USFSA is even going to interfere too much with the scoring like in previous seasons. Apart from the top dance teams and Nathan (who has to be sent at worlds to have the slightest chance of getting the 3 spots back), nobody is particularly reliable at this moment, so I'm pretty sure whomever skates best is going to end up on the podium and on a trip to worlds. Maybe they'll have a little more consideration for Ashley but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[CoyoteChris]

Apart from Dance, ANYTHING could happen at this year's nationals, so a lot of skaters will have a chance to really shine. Really I don't think USFSA is even going to interfere too much with the scoring like in previous seasons. Apart from the top dance teams and Nathan (who has to be sent at worlds to have the slightest chance of getting the 3 spots back), nobody is particularly reliable at this moment, so I'm pretty sure whomever skates best is going to end up on the podium and on a trip to worlds. Maybe they'll have a little more consideration for Ashley but I wouldn't bet on it.

I pretty much agree with you. I think Nathan will be the man, but I hope these two do well....
http://s1217.photobucket.com/user/CoyoteChris303/media/jm_zpsivgn0w2z.jpg.html?sort=3&o=0

 

[blue_idealist]

I think Cain and LeDuc might medal, and Mariah Bell. Gold could end up out of the medals if she skates as poorly as she has been.

 

[TontoK]

In an amazing twist, I'm most interested in a pair team at this Nationals. And, yes, it is Cain/LeDuc. I think they have enormous promise.

After that, I'm interested in seeing if Nathan Chen can reproduce his recent skate at GPF. If he can, he will become a huge star in USA. We all know him, of course, But the broader public does not. I'd like to see a "Riverdance" moment for him at Nationals.

I'll watch the ice dance. I may not bother with the ladies, since I've completely lost interest in US ladies.

 

[Olympic]

Men: The poster upthread who said that the top 4 in the men's standings are pretty solid is correct. But, I would not be surprised if Max Aaron upends the apple cart. I don't think he will beat Nathan Chen, but he might be on the World Team. Max underwent Hernia surgery last year and it affected his performances, but I noted that even so, his marks went up all season while Jason Brown and Adam Rippon each had some strong performances but still struggle w/ the quad. If Max can do a couple of 4Sal and a 4toe, while Jason and Adam struggle, he could move ahead of them.

Women: What a crap shoot. I have no idea

Pairs: Cain / LeDuc. Like Max, they have been steadily getting better while others such as Kayne/O'Shea and Castelli/Tran have been muddling through the year, and Scimeca / Knierim will be making their debut at Nationals. The door is open for a podium spot, maybe even a Worlds spot.

Ice Dance: I see this as pretty solid.

 

[mrrice]

Ladies: After seeing how things went at Russian Nationals, I think Ashley and Gracie better bring it. Clearly, the Russian Judges were not going to hold up their skaters or Leonova, and Tuk would have at least been in the top 5. I do think that a skater like Angela Wang needs to make statement or she might need to think about moving on. This will be her 5th or 6th season as a Senior and with her big jumps and choreography, she should have at least a pewter medal by now. IMO, this year is the best hope for Mirai to get herself back on the podium. Gracie and Ashley are defending big points and seem to be in a state of panic. The fact that they both missed the GPF is very telling and I think they're both lacking confidence. At this point, the Momentum seems to be with Mariah Bell. Wildcards: Courtney Hicks and Brandie Tennel.

Dance: We're looking great and I think any team in the top 3 could medal at Worlds. Obviously, I'll have my money on the Shibs after that big showing at the GPF.

Pairs: I don't know enough to give a good guess. I do like Denny and Frasier.

Men: Deep as the Ocean and even harder to predict. Nathan has the momentum but, Adam is defending champion and very popular with the US Judges. I REALLY want Max on the Podium and at Worlds but, I know the judges and the fans LOVE Jason Brown. We still have Grant, Ross and Alexander Johnson, who have shown glimpses of brilliance this season.

 

[Spiralgraph]

My favorite discipline has always been pairs so I'm hoping Cain/Leduc skate their best and land on the podium, hopefully in the top two. But I want all the teams to skate well, so the USA can have a better showing at 2017 worlds.

In dance I'm a firm Shib sibs fan, after that, I'd like to see Hawayek/Baker improve their placement from last year, though I think a bronze medal might be out of their reach as of yet.

Men, who knows what will happen Nathan Chen's quads are awe inspiring, but everything else he does is not at the level of Jason Brown or Adam Rippon. Max Aaron has a good chance too, maybe first if he's "on" that week.

Ladies I won't even venture to guess.I'll hold my breath for Ashley and maybe say a prayer for Gracie Gold.