2016-2017 State of Canadian Figure Skating

[Skater Boy]

I REALLY hope whichever two ladies make the world team will do well enough that there will be three spots next year. Canada has 3 very talented skaters and it's such a shame that one has to be left behind. It really is.

It would be neat for this to happen but it doesn't look likely. This would really count on Gabby and Kaetlyn doing very well at the same time at worlds with Kaetlyn sneaking into the top 4 which is tough and assuming Gabby came 8th which would be tough. Now you have Carolina, 3 Japanese ladies, 3 Russian ladies and 3 Americans all who reasonably can beat all Canadians. Add to that a Chinese, a S. Korean and one other ladies a top ten is not assured - though one would hope or think Kaetlyn is looking good for top ten - my fear is she skates "bad" at nationals and somehow Alaine sneaks in and then crumbles and underrotates. Unlike Russia or the US CAanda seems to go with the national placements generally - though they have broken rank in the past a few times. If the judges started treating her as the new Gracie and she has the huge j umps and really quite decent spins with a sparkling personality on the ice she could be the darkhorse. Granted on a bad day all three Americans could be behind Kaetlyn. The odds are though one Russian and a Japanese lady would beat her not to mention Carolina - depending on where she is with her jumps.

 

[SnowWhite]

It would be neat for this to happen but it doesn't look likely. This would really count on Gabby and Kaetlyn doing very well at the same time at worlds with Kaetlyn sneaking into the top 4 which is tough and assuming Gabby came 8th which would be tough. Now you have Carolina, 3 Japanese ladies, 3 Russian ladies and 3 Americans all who reasonably can beat all Canadians. Add to that a Chinese, a S. Korean and one other ladies a top ten is not assured - though one would hope or think Kaetlyn is looking good for top ten - my fear is she skates "bad" at nationals and somehow Alaine sneaks in and then crumbles and underrotates. Unlike Russia or the US CAanda seems to go with the national placements generally - though they have broken rank in the past a few times. If the judges started treating her as the new Gracie and she has the huge j umps and really quite decent spins with a sparkling personality on the ice she could be the darkhorse. Granted on a bad day all three Americans could be behind Kaetlyn. The odds are though one Russian and a Japanese lady would beat her not to mention Carolina - depending on where she is with her jumps.

Three Americans who can reasonably beat all the Canadians? I'm sorry what? Ashley sure. And Gracie if she skates better than she has all season, but a third? Kaetlyn is fourth on the SB list FYI. And she's been pretty consistent this year. And I wouldn't count on three Japanese ladies all beating her either. Getting three spots is certainly not something we should count on, but it's very possible. Gabby was top ten last season and could certainly end up there again and Kaetlyn is a good bet for top ten and even top five. A total of 13 could certainly happen. And most of the posters in a couple threads about American ladies seem to think Canada has a better shot at three than the US.

 

[TGee]

Alaine just posted on instagram, of a few training mates and herself checking out the venue for nationals

Great to see team Eastern Ontario Section (EOS) scoping out the relatively newly renovated arena at TD place in Ottawa. They seem to have great spirit.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BO3VwJLjFPu/?taken-by=alainechartrand&hl=en

Left to right...(hoping I've got it right...)

David Birenberg (novice men's), Josh Allen (junior men's), Alaine, Matthew Markell (junior men's), Alex Gunter and Kaitlyn Chubb (junior dance) ...Evan Hopkins and Daniel Rousskikh (both novice men's) noted as absent from photo...

And yes 4everchan, more evidence that some of the younger Canadian male skaters are tall and taller....

 

[4everchan]

Hmm little brother Nathan looks a lot bigger and stronger than PChiddy.

lol skater boy.. it's simply because Patrick is further away from the camera... he is 6cm taller than Nathan accordingly to ISU bios... i just looked it up because so many times, in pictures, patrick does look taller... and well... do we need to compare bodies because Patrick is one of the buffest figure skaters out there

signed... fanboy 4everchan

 

[4everchan]

Celestino is 177cm too... noticed because stood in line with him at ACI.... and i was like.. wow... he's so tall for a skater...

Great to see team Eastern Ontario Section (EOS) scoping out the relatively newly renovated arena at TD place in Ottawa. They seem to have great spirit.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BO3VwJLjFPu/?taken-by=alainechartrand&hl=en

Left to right...(hoping I've got it right...)

David Birenberg (novice men's), Josh Allen (junior men's), Alaine, Matthew Markell (junior men's), Alex Gunter and Kaitlyn Chubb (junior dance) ...Evan Hopkins and Daniel Rousskikh (both novice men's) noted as absent from photo...

And yes 4everchan, more evidence that some of the younger Canadian male skaters are tall and taller....

 

[Osmond4gold]

It would be neat for this to happen but it doesn't look likely. This would really count on Gabby and Kaetlyn doing very well at the same time at worlds with Kaetlyn sneaking into the top 4 which is tough and assuming Gabby came 8th which would be tough. Now you have Carolina, 3 Japanese ladies, 3 Russian ladies and 3 Americans all who reasonably can beat all Canadians. Add to that a Chinese, a S. Korean and one other ladies a top ten is not assured - though one would hope or think Kaetlyn is looking good for top ten - my fear is she skates "bad" at nationals and somehow Alaine sneaks in and then crumbles and underrotates. Unlike Russia or the US CAanda seems to go with the national placements generally - though they have broken rank in the past a few times. If the judges started treating her as the new Gracie and she has the huge j umps and really quite decent spins with a sparkling personality on the ice she could be the darkhorse. Granted on a bad day all three Americans could be behind Kaetlyn. The odds are though one Russian and a Japanese lady would beat her not to mention Carolina - depending on where she is with her jumps.

Hmmm...if I can be honest Skater Boy, I believe Canada's chances of getting 3 spots are better (at this point in time) than both US and Japan, based on 2 skaters, that I am pretty sure will be in the top ten and their seasons performances to date.

 

[chuckm]

What will help the Canadian ladies is that there will be no Russian or US judges on the Ladies panel but there will be a CAN judge. There will be JPN and KOR judges, and LAT and SLO judges that might support the Russian skaters. All the other judges are European.

Now if the Tech Spec is Canadian, too, the Canadian ladies have it in the bag.

 

[mrrice]

What will help the Canadian ladies is that there will be no Russian or US judges on the Ladies panel but there will be a CAN judge. There will be JPN and KOR judges, and LAT and SLO judges that might support the Russian skaters. All the other judges are European.

Now if the Tech Spec is Canadian, too, the Canadian ladies have it in the bag.

Hopefully I'm wrong but, it almost sounds like you think the Canadians need a rigged panel to win. "In The Bag" is something that rarely comes to fruition. Michelle Kwan was the reigning National and World Champion going into Salt Lake City. The home country favorite and the leader going into the free program. The fact that Sarah Hughes was able to pull up from 4th place to win was one of the biggest upsets in skating history. I think even in Sochi, people thought Yulia would win the OGM. Especially after the team event. Wasn't Yulia the European Champion going into Sochi?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Now if the Tech Spec is Canadian, too, the Canadian ladies have it in the bag.

I don't think this matters. Neither Kaetlyn nor Gabby have a < problem. Kaetlyn has an iffy lutz take-off but it's rarely called "e". Even if Kaetlyn skates her best she will still need high PCS across the board to win, and one CAN judge and one CAN on the tech panel won't make that happen.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Hopefully I'm wrong but, it almost sounds like you think the Canadians need a rigged panel to win. "In The Bag" is something that rarely comes to fruition. Michelle Kwan was the reigning National and World Champion going into Salt Lake City. The home country favorite and the leader going into the free program. The fact Sarah Hughes was able to pull up from 4th place to win was one of the biggest upsets in skating history.

The SLC ordinals were all over the place. Three judges had Kwan 2nd to Hughes, which would have given Kwan gold. Four judges had Irina winning gold. Only two intended for Hughes to win, having her first and Kwan third. It's fascinating to see how the LP was marked: http://www.sports-reference.com/olympics/winter/2002/FSK/womens-singles-free-skating.html

 

[lyndichee]

Hopefully I'm wrong but, it almost sounds like you think the Canadians need a rigged panel to win. "In The Bag" is something that rarely comes to fruition. Michelle Kwan was the reigning National and World Champion going into Salt Lake City. The home country favorite and the leader going into the free program. The fact Sarah Hughes was able to pull up from 4th place to win was one of the biggest upsets in skating history. I think even in Sochi, people thought the Yulia would win the OGM. Especially after the team event. Wasn't Yulia the European Champion going into Sochi?

I am not even surprised by the assumption considering this person thinks none of these skaters have gotten legitimate results.

So apparently Canadian chances can be upset by Russian, Japanese, US and a couple more from other federations.

Russian team:

Medvedeva
Pogorilaya
Sotskova

All 3 of these ladies going clean can likely place above Gabby but Kaetlyn has beaten Sotskova and Kaetlyn has no UR issues.

Japanese team:

Miyahara
Higuchi
Mihara

Higuchi beat Gabby Daleman at TDF but Gabby flopped in the FS. Given if Gabby goes clean, I think she has a great chance of beating Higuchi as the judges give her more PCS.

Kaetlyn has beaten Mihara at Cup of China with a flawed FS. Mihara beat Gabby at Skate America however based on SB scores so far, Canadian ladies are ahead of Mihara.

As for Satoko, she's such a solid competitor and beautiful skater I have confidence that she will likely place above at least Daleman. She has the artistry and as long as she doesn't get too many UR, she's top 5 material at worlds. She was beaten by Kaetlyn in Skate Canada but beat Kaetlyn at the GPF.

USA

Wagner
Gold
Bell
Nagasu
Chen
Edmunds

Edmunds has not competed this season so that is up in the air.
Wagner has been awarded generous PCS but only time can tell what her tech will be like at worlds. She does go in with a better reputation has reigning silver.

Gold has been general inconsistent and might have had some sort of back strain at Golden Spin. She placed behind Daleman in Skate America.

Nagasu has had ups and down, did very well at Autumn Classic, flopped on GP circuit.

Bell is a wild card, performing extremely well at Skate America surprising the US crowd and is a contender for the world team this year. She beat Daleman at Skate America however her SB is only marginally higher than Daleman and Kaetlyn has gotten higher scores as well. There is even less information on her international consistency compared to Daleman and Osmond.

Karen Chen seems to have had a better season than last year but her scores far lower than the rest of the field; has not cracked 180. She also has UR issues so I don't think she will be a likely upset.

Other skaters who have a chance to upset include Carolina Kostner who is known for being up and down but I think the judges love her and she has a great chance of placing well at Worlds.

Based on this, I think Kaetlyn and Gabby have good chances of getting 3 spots. It does involve them going completely clean but not outside the realm of reason or possibility. Nobody needs to suggest favouritism/national bias to see that this is possible.

 

[4everchan]

great analysis lyndichee.... i'd add to this that Kaetlyn even beat Pogo in Finlandia.... of course, early season but neither of them was flawless... so in some ways, it shows that it is possible. Ice is slippery, but I agree. Canada has a better shot this year, probably one of its best shot in years to get 3 spots.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Based on this, I think Kaetlyn and Gabby have good chances of getting 3 spots. It does involve them going completely clean but not outside the realm of reason or possibility. Nobody needs to suggest favouritism/national bias to see that this is possible.

Based on how this season has gone, I think CAN has a better chance at 3 (slightly) than USA. The advantage for USA is that we get the best 2 of 3 placements, whereas CAN has to have both ladies perform well. The disadvantage for USA is that, at this time, we have one solid woman. Maria S and Caro could be the big spoilers, as they will likely place ahead of any USA or CAN skaters who make multiple errors.

 

[Sackie]

I agree that CAN should have a better chance at 3 ladies than the USA except for the fact that at worlds the USA ladies always get a PCS boost. Even when they have bad Tech skates they are marked higher in PCS to keep them in the running. As we saw with their short programs at 2015 Worlds! I mean Ashley actually had the 18th Tech marks yet placed 11th in the Short so she would not be skating to early in the Free. The only one of our CAN ladies that I think might be saved in PCS is Kaetlyn. If Gabby or Alaine have iffy Tech skates their PCS will drop! If Gabby or Alaine had the 18th Tech score you can be sure they would not be kept in the top 12 in the short program.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I agree that CAN should have a better chance at 3 ladies than the USA except for the fact that at worlds the USA ladies always get a PCS boost. Even when they have bad Tech skates they are marked higher in PCS to keep them in the running. As we saw with their short programs at 2015 Worlds! I mean Ashley actually had the 18th Tech marks yet placed 11th in the Short so she would not be skating to early in the Free. The only one of our CAN ladies that I think might be saved in PCS is Kaetlyn. If Gabby or Alaine have iffy Tech skates their PCS will drop! If Gabby or Alaine had the 18th Tech score you can be sure they would not be kept in the top 12 in the short program.

I think that's more a reflection of reputation scoring, rather than nationalistic bias. Ashley has been very consistent over several years, so when she skates poorly she isn't buried like other skaters whom the judges are less familiar with. Kaetlyn has only recently gotten really good; she was hurt most of last year, and I found her skating very sloppy in 2014 and earlier. She has really improved her lines, her jumps entrances are still difficult but look far more controlled, and everything is polished. I wish Courtney Hicks would put in the work to improve all the other non-jumping elements like Kaetlyn has.

 

[ssffww]

I don't think this matters. Neither Kaetlyn nor Gabby have a < problem. Kaetlyn has an iffy lutz take-off but it's rarely called "e". Even if Kaetlyn skates her best she will still need high PCS across the board to win, and one CAN judge and one CAN on the tech panel won't make that happen.

Kaetlyn had ! call on lutz and < on loop in free skate at Skate Canada.

Kaetlyn had downgrade on Lutz, < on Loop, and < on Salchow in free skate at Cup of China.

She skated all her shorts clean and had a clean free at final.

Love her skating by the way!

 

[TGee]

Thought it might be time for a round up of "getting ready for nationals" instagrams..

I've got the women....

Gabby https://www.instagram.com/p/BOz_i32AC80/?taken-by=gabby_daleman&hl=en

Alaine. https://www.instagram.com/p/BO5QXNXDHOK/?taken-by=alainechartrand&hl=en

Kaetlyn https://www.instagram.com/p/BO0kvItD2MT/?taken-by=kaetkiss&hl=en

Anyone willing to round up men's, pairs or dance?

------------------------------------

editing to add....the male skater in Alaine's gif is senior men's Bennet Toman who evidently got to join the EOS training day at TD place last week

Bennet has posted this gif with a quad toe preceded by a spread eagle....not a great landing, but it's definitely happening...

https://www.instagram.com/p/BO5Uc5TBivF/

(and for anyone who is still wondering if this is a public friendship....

https://www.instagram.com/p/BOsLsmFhfgG/?taken-by=boosterbmt)

 

[SnowWhite]

I checked the Instagram accounts of Piper Gilles, Paul Poirier, Kaitlyn Weaver, Andrew Poje and Tessa Virtue and found nothing of that type (didn't have to heck Scott Moir's since he has two posts in 2.5 years).

ETA I checked a bunch of the men's accounts too and didn't find much either.

 

[TGee]

Pairs..... not everyone is posting as yet...pairs seem to like to post interesting training photos....

Ilyushechkina/Moscovitch

https://www.instagram.com/p/BO2v2dmBPxm/?taken-by=lubov_ilyushechkina

https://www.instagram.com/p/BO0QJfbBTeL/


Moore-Towers/Marinaro

https://www.instagram.com/p/BOpE9rSBum9/?taken-by=kirsten_mt&hl=en

https://mobile.twitter.com/Kirsten_MT/status/816334269396172804/photo/1


Ruest/Wolfe

https://www.instagram.com/p/BONx7-aDLM2/?taken-by=caaaamille_

 

[TGee]

Now publicly confirmed....Alaine Chartrand has returned to last year's short program, Pina, for nationals....

Alaine has retweeted a tweet from Beverley Smith, sports writer with the Globe and Mail, which is as much of a confirmation as could be asked for....

https://twitter.com/BevSmithWrites/status/818839507290050562

Loved Pina, and hope that it brings Alaine a good nationals experience. No news on whether she's going back to her old costume or keeping the great fringe dress from Charlene....In my view, the deep blue fringe would be fantastic with Pina.