US Team: 4CCs and Worlds (updated) | Page 28 | Golden Skate

US Team: 4CCs and Worlds (updated)

Mirai had a similar skate at 4CC last year and won silver; she pretty much repeated that skate at Worlds, yet placed just 10th. Even when skating clean, her PCS scores hold her back because she is so intent on delivering the technical goods that there is no Mirai in the performance.

Mariah did OK at 4CC, not great, but I think she can do better at Worlds. Karen just seems to collapse into a ball of self doubt when she competes internationally.
I watched her 4CC FS and she looked as if she was scared to death and had no idea what was coming next.

I would be very surprised if Karen can finish in the top 12 at Worlds; I think Mariah probably can manage to do it. But with this team, it's bye bye 3 spots for US ladies.


Let's face it: we need Gracie and let's hope she is training hard so she'll be ready to get back where she belongs next season.

Actually she didn't repeat that skate. She had some understating in her free and short. She scored about 13 points lower at worlds. I think she would've done better if she knew she was going ahead of time and it was in the same arena where she experienced the saddest moment of her life.
 
My take is Jason is kind of like Chan they don't have the tech goods but really are wonderful skaters. They need to rely on mistakes on others but neither skates clean themselves. Still they are very special pc wise but sadly the scoring system doesn't really identify that or not as much. I know same story. They really need to earn 3 spots at worlds. Nathan is a shoo in for a medal; the latest hot stuff so to speak. Jason should be top 8 or ten at worst. Mind you Chan could be out of the top 5 as can Ten so you never know.

As for the US system of choosing I know that in life the best system usually is the one that favours you or your favorite skater. And the joy of one skater ie selection is often at the cost of another. I would have been tempted to let Karen, Mirai and Mariah skate off at 4CCs. Ashley may have been second but is solid and internationally gets pcs even with bad skates as she is very good skating skill wise, and mature looking on ice and as I have mentioned before both Mariah and Karen can look super mature and elegant to some or be seen as juniorish and a bit coltish. I kind of I would have gone Ashley, Mirai and then Chen or Bell.

As for pairs, SK/K are really appreciated and two years ago i thought were on the cusp of maybe snagging a bronze at worlds or at least top 5. With Russia really having lost their top two teams to pregnancy and injury (add K and S as no. 3) they are relying on T and M the kind of Shishkova and Naumov team of 2017 - solid, good tricks, well done, solid presentation but not particularly inspiring and Canada's no. 2 team out or at least injured (S and B) plus two "new" Chinese teams despite SK/K's own issues I think they could do it :)

Dance well these three teams the Shibs, C/B and HD are so far ahead and now that Weapo seemed to have died in the dust it just solidifies these are the it dance tems for the states. I think Shibs have no. 1 pretty clear now andif they beat CB at worlds it is a done deal. Now if D and W come back there is no doubt H/D is gone.
 
Actually she didn't repeat that skate. She had some understating in her free and short. She scored about 13 points lower at worlds. I think she would've done better if she knew she was going ahead of time and it was in the same arena where she experienced the saddest moment of her life.

Hmm not sure if it was the saddest moment of her life she may have lost a loved one or something. But I don't think losing 3 spots is a reality. With Canada so inconsistent (although granted in the mix now) and really the Russian third lady vulnerable or maybe both 2nd and 3rd though Anna is geting competitive tough and the Japanese having an injured no.1 now in Satoko and no Mao you would think US was safe (add to a possible Kostner melt down though maybe she is more consistent now???).
 
Hmm not sure if it was the saddest moment of her life she may have lost a loved one or something. But I don't think losing 3 spots is a reality. With Canada so inconsistent (although granted in the mix now) and really the Russian third lady vulnerable or maybe both 2nd and 3rd though Anna is geting competitive tough and the Japanese having an injured no.1 now in Satoko and no Mao you would think US was safe (add to a possible Kostner melt down though maybe she is more consistent now???).

Anna
Satoko
Zhenya
Ashley
Masha
Caro
Kaetlyn

Will probably break 200 and compete for a top 7

Leaving us

Gabby
Mai
Mariah
Karen
Wakababy

Who could potentially break 200 but I'm not betting on it, competing three spots left for a top ten.


Who am I missing?
 
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Satoko
Zhenya
Ashley
Masha
Caro
Kaetlyn

Will probably break 200 and compete for a top 6

Leaving us

Gabby
Mai
Mariah
Karen
Wakababy

Who could potentially break 200 but I'm not betting on it, competing for a top ten.


Who am I missing?
Anna
 
She did not skate well at Nationals. She bombed in both programs.

Didn't she score higher than Mirai did at 4CC? 63 and 134 for a 197? If that's bombing then please give me your honest review of Mirai at 4cc :popcorn:
 
;) Audiences enjoyed Jeremy's artistic programs, in particular Exogenisis. He went to two Olympics, finishing ninth and twelfth. What was he the second coming of?

I saw his skating in Finlandia Trophy very early in his career and liked him at once. And we should not forget that he won GPF once, although it is not a major competition. Of course after that more was expected from him and perhaps he started to feel pressure.... Abbott was just wonderful in interpreting music and I really miss his skating!!!
 
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Actually she didn't repeat that skate. She had some understating in her free and short. She scored about 13 points lower at worlds. I think she would've done better if she knew she was going ahead of time and it was in the same arena where she experienced the saddest moment of her life.

Mirai was first alternate and had to train right up to Worlds just in case she had to go. USFS would have kept her advised that Polina was likely to withdraw and she would have known this long before the announcement was made.

I saw 4CC last year, and was at Worlds in Boston, and I can say that she skated just as well at both competitions. There were, of course, different callers at the two competitions, and that is probably what accounted for the differences in scoring.

At 4CC, she got no calls in the SP, but at Worlds, she got 3f+3t<. Her SP scored 66.06 at 4CC and 65.74 at Worlds--not much difference. But while she was 3rd after the SP at 4CC, she was 10th at Worlds, where 8 ladies scored 67 or higher in the SP.

Here were the scores and calls for the FS:

4CC: 127.80 66.01 61.79 7.68 7.50 7.86 7.86 7.71 0.00 3f+3t, 3ze, 3s, 2a+3t+2t, 3lo, 3lo+2t, 2a

16W: 120.91 60.97 59.94 7.57 7.21 7.50 7.50 7.68 0.00 3f+3t, 3z<, 3s, 2a+3t+2t, 3lo<, 3lo+2t, 2a

The 4CC caller hit Mirai hard for her flutz, while the Worlds caller ignored the flutz but called URs on the lutz and the loop.

Mirai's PCS scores were lower at Worlds, but not that much different from the 4CC scores. Mirai focuses mainly on technical execution and doesn't put much energy into selling her program or in audience contact. She needs PCS scores in the 8s if she wants to be a top-tier skater, and to do that, she needs to develop more outgoing performance skills.

BTW, the difference between her 4CC score and her Worlds score was 7.21 points, not 13 points:

193.86 4CC - 186.65 Worlds = 7.21
 
Mariah and Karen deserve the boot. They've both shown they are extremely inconsistent internationally but MIRAI has shown 2 seasons in a row that she peaks towards the end of the season and she definitely deserves to go. To be honest I'd even send Gracie because at least there's always the slim chance Gracie could place a top 10 or top 8 where as at this point Mariah and Karen have shown that they are unable to skate 2 decent programs this season other than at nationals.

And three other competitions that Mariah Bell medaled at this season.

She has has a great season actually. Not a perfect season, but nothing to be embarrassed by. She also is one that never gives up and keeps fighting. She often moves up in the free and never stops performing even after bobbles. So I think she is the type who will build on her 4CC experience and do better at worlds. I think she can apply it as a learning experience for worlds. Karen has been to 4CC and has not improved her standings, so id have more faith in Mariah.
 
Mirai's PCS scores were lower at Worlds, but not that much different from the 4CC scores. Mirai focuses mainly on technical execution and doesn't put much energy into selling her program or in audience contact. She needs PCS scores in the 8s if she wants to be a top-tier skater, and to do that, she needs to develop more outgoing performance skills.

BTW, the difference between her 4CC score and her Worlds score was 7.21 points, not 13 points:

193.86 4CC - 186.65 Worlds = 7.21

It is also worth remembering that Mirai lost a practice session at worlds due to her boot ripping... again. So her FS was likely a little conservative for an arguably logical reason. I think she would do better on healthy boots.
 
Didn't she score higher than Mirai did at 4CC? 63 and 134 for a 197? If that's bombing then please give me your honest review of Mirai at 4cc :popcorn:

You are comparing national inflation to a real competition? Are you that daft? Do you think she can score 134 with her skate here?
 
I think a third spot would be cool even if the person who gets it is not a serious factor for the podium. I wouldn't mind seeing either Vincent Zhou or Grant Hochstein at the Olympics, backing up Jason and Nathan.

I have the feeling that it will be Chen and Zhou at the Olympics, if there are only 2 slots. And we should remember that the Russians and Fernandez are not competing in 4CC, but will be at Worlds...
 
After the 4CC ladies event this week, my guess is that the USFSA will start delaying the announcement of the world team. Mirai, Marai and Karen are all not models of consistency, but I do now think that Mirai on the World team would give the US the best chance of keeping three spots. I'm not optimistic at all that these ladies can hang on to three. With questions surrounding Satoko's injury and Kaetlyn's unfortunate showing here, I do think Ashley might have a better chance at repeating as a medalist at Worlds. My new prediction for ladies at in Helsinki:
1. Evgenia
2. Anna
3. Ashley
4. Satoko
5. Kaetlyn
6. Maria
7. Mai
8. Gabby
9. Laurine
10. Wakaba
Maria and Karen somewhere around 11-12. Le sigh...
 
Agree with Jaana. I don't see Jason making it to the Olympics next year. Vincent will keep working on his quads and his artistry and he will be formidable competition at Nationals. If he has a great showing in the GP next year and beats Jason by an even greater margin than this year (9 points), it will be hard for USFS to make a case for denying Vincent the spot on a basis of body of work, especially if Jason bombs at 2017 4CC and Worlds. Jason's injuries have kept him from establishing a good performance record over the past two years.
 
After the 4CC ladies event this week, my guess is that the USFSA will start delaying the announcement of the world team. Mirai, Marai and Karen are all not models of consistency, but I do now think that Mirai on the World team would give the US the best chance of keeping three spots. I'm not optimistic at all that these ladies can hang on to three. With questions surrounding Satoko's injury and Kaetlyn's unfortunate showing here, I do think Ashley might have a better chance at repeating as a medalist at Worlds. My new prediction for ladies at in Helsinki:
1. Evgenia
2. Anna
3. Ashley
4. Satoko
5. Kaetlyn
6. Maria
7. Mai
8. Gabby
9. Laurine
10. Wakaba
Maria and Karen somewhere around 11-12. Le sigh...

Carolina Kostner??? Where does this judges' favorite fit in your calculations?

And USFS has already announced the World team. Unless one of the ladies withdraws, that is it.
 
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Carolina Kostner??? Where does this judges' favorite fit in your calculations?

Oooh, I totally forgot about her. If she shows up with a lutz, I'd guess maybe 5th and drop everybody else down one. She's a really tough one to predict.
 
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