US Team: 4CCs and Worlds (updated)

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think Jason is a safer bet because even when he performs below his standard (for good reason since he's recovering from injury) he can score about the same as Vincent who is attempting riskier and more ambitious jump content. Jason's floor is higher than Vincent's floor even if Vincent's ceiling is higher, there's no guarantee he'll reach it. Jason's floor seems to be good enough to get what we need for 3 spots.

This is what it's all about, IMO. Not who is likely to finish higher, but who is more likely to finish outside the top 10. No one is saying anything is guaranteed, but who is more likely to score well even on an off day.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Final placements are determined by total score, not just PCS. Vincent tends to score slightly higher in total points than Jason but Jason was given the slot. I have disagreed with that choice since the World's Team was announced.

Really, I think that what happened is that the USFSA wanted to have the assignments settled right after nationals. Vincent was not eligible for worlds at the conclusion of the event. Similarly, the USFSA never uses 4CC as a skate-off. Our Nationals occurs too late to have all the skaters on edge about whether they get to go to Worlds and only finding out a month before.

 

[snowflake]

I wonder what Vincent think about his assignments? Has he said anything? or his coach?

Anyway Nathan and Jason are chosen for worlds. Good for them to be able to make plans before the event. If healthy I’m sure they’ll do fine.

I think Vincent is in a good place training for junior worlds and at the same time preparing for senior worlds as an alternate.

 

[Tavi...]

Final placements are determined by total score, not just PCS. Vincent tends to score slightly higher in total points than Jason but Jason was given the slot. I have disagreed with that choice since the World's Team was announced.

If you look at overall trends, Jason's scores seems to have plateau'ed out but Vincent's scored seems to still be going up. That is why I think Vincent is really the better bet.

But USFS has selected Jason. Given the current state of men's skating, not sure if Jason can place high enough to get a third spot. Having said that, I have more confidence with Vincent but him placing high enough is not a given either.

Im wondering what overall trends you're referring to?

These are his ISU results this season:

Lombardia: 256.49 (Sep 11)
SLC: 254.04 (Sep 18)
SA: 268.38 (Oct 23)
NHK: 218.47(Nov 27)
4CC: 245.85 (Feb 19)

Based on this data, I would say he peaked at SA with a new PB, had a 50 point drop at NHK due to the then undiagnosed stress fracture, is not yet back to full strength, and is likely to score higher at Worlds (Mar 29) than he did at 4CC, unless he reaggravates the injury.

 

[concorde]

Jason has an injury that is preventing him from training 100%. I think the 3a falls are linked to that injury. For the last month I have questioned if he will be fully up and running by Worlds and I believe his 4cc showing proves this. I really doubt things are going to change in the next month.

And that is before you add in the lack of a quad.

 

[skatinggold]

Umm, no. Jason didn't and doesn't need to prove that he can outscore Vincent, except in your mind, and the minds of a few other posters who seemingly don't know or agree with the selection procedures, and have a great need to repeatedly bash him.

No matter how you try to spin it, this was not exactly a resounding "victory" for Vincent given that he attempted a total of 4 quads, fell on one, and was called for < or << on 5 jumps, including both of his quad sals in the FS. Not surprisingly, his total GOE for the entire competition was about 4 points lower than Jason's at 4CC. In short, it was not exactly a confidence inspiring performance.

With all these Mistakes he still beat Jason in score. That's says a lot already.

- - - Updated - - -

Jason has an injury that is preventing him from training 100%. I think the 3a falls are linked to that injury. For the last month I have questioned if he will be fully up and running by Worlds and I believe his 4cc showing proves this. I really doubt things are going to change in the next month.

And that is before you add in the lack of a quad.

If he is injured, why is he even competing?

 

[concorde]

Lots of elite athletes compete with injuries. At Nationals, I believe his team said he would be ready for 4cc. He did not achieve his pre-injury scores there.

Its a stress facture on this landing foot. That is really tough injury to heal if you are getting ready for Worlds, regardless of the skater.

 

[Tavi...]

Jason has an injury that is preventing him from training 100%. I think the 3a falls are linked to that injury. For the last month I have questioned if he will be fully up and running by Worlds and I believe his 4cc showing proves this. I really doubt things are going to change in the next month.

And that is before you add in the lack of a quad.

I would absolutely agree that his injury impacted his ability to land his jumps and derailed the progress he was making on his quads. But unlike you, apparently, I do see a difference from what he did at Nats to what he did at 4CC. I have no idea if his training is now at 100%, but I'm sure he will continue to improve in the 5-1/2 weeks before Worlds. I really doubt USFS would have named him to the team if they felt he wouldn't progress significantly. And I'm equally sure that he will withdraw if his condition warrants it.

By the way, his international PB without attempting a quad is 263.17 - which would put him at #11 on the season's best list (#10 without Adam, who won't be at Worlds).

 

[Tavi...]

With all these Mistakes he still beat Jason in score. That's says a lot already.

- - - Updated - - -

Not really.

 

[karne]

With all these Mistakes he still beat Jason in score. That's says a lot already.

But Jason has proven he can score big under pressure at a big event. Vincent has not.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

But Jason has proven he can score big under pressure at a big event. Vincent has not.

Yes. And let's not forget that, although Nathan has been skating very well, he also is skating in his first Worlds and will be coming in with a ton of pressure. It's nice that we will have one skater with World and Olympic experience.

 

[skylark]

I agree with Karne. Though I would word it that Jason's mediocrity sans quad is still good enough for a top ten at worlds. With Nathan the Americans are back with three men.

Jason's skating isn't mediocre; his GOEs on everything prove that.

I'm a huge Jason fan, and I've found this discussion interesting to read, exaggerations and protestations notwithstanding.

But it's an over-calculation for any Jason fan to state categorically that he'll be 100% for worlds. No one can predict that, not even his doctors. Every human's body is individual and will heal according to its own clock and internal conditions. And it's his landing foot.

That said, I think even if he's not 100%, and if he continues to get better not worse, he'll very likely be in the top 10; should be no problem for 3 Oly spots if both he and Nathan are close to their usual standard. I wish him speedy healing and all the best in the next 5 or 6 weeks.

 

[Bonnie F]

Since it seems like everyone else on the forum has given their opinion of who should be on the world team, I'll give my two cents...
I think the correct people are going. Jason may not be able to match many of his competitors in terms of jumps but they aren't going to all go clean and so he'll place well on the basis of his PCS. If Nathan can make the podium (and he should without difficulty) I think the US will secure three spots. Now I think Jason has an up hill battle for one of those spots next year but that's another topic.
For the ladies, I love Mirai but she didn't deliver at nationals, she and Bell are both inconsistent so since Bell was named to the team bars on her bronze, she should go. Karen should not even be in question, the national champ should automatically go, no matter how inconsistent she is. Winning nationals should mean something and have the prize of a world spot attached, if not why even have nationals.

 

[hippomoomin]

I think we can look at Jason's tread in terms his pb in the past few years. He reached about 270 in 2015, though not at an ISU event. His PB at 2016 Skate America did not pass that. Unless adds two reliable quads, I don't see him score much high than 270, since he has been give credits for his pcs.

Vincent on the other hand, improves year after year, even with 2 years not competing prior to last season. He has some sort of injury too at the Nationals. He just did not make it so public. As long as Vincent stays healthy, he will probably beat Jason in every competition in two years. Well, Jason may retire by then.

Who should be sent to Worlds? Jason is probably the better choice since Vincent has been competing at the junior level all season. To stay healthy, he should not push himself too hard at 16. He performed pretty well after Nathan's record LP at nationals. So pressure should not be too much of a concern for him.

The argument that he has no world experience, therefore should not be sent there, is again, lame. Did Jason have worlds experience before he was sen for the first time?

Im wondering what overall trends you're referring to?

These are his ISU results this season:

Lombardia: 256.49 (Sep 11)
SLC: 254.04 (Sep 18)
SA: 268.38 (Oct 23)
NHK: 218.47(Nov 27)
4CC: 245.85 (Feb 19)

Based on this data, I would say he peaked at SA with a new PB, had a 50 point drop at NHK due to the then undiagnosed stress fracture, is not yet back to full strength, and is likely to score higher at Worlds (Mar 29) than he did at 4CC, unless he reaggravates the injury.

 

[Tavi...]

I think we can look at Jason's tread in terms his pb in the past few years. He reached about 270 in 2015, though not at an ISU event. His PB at 2016 Skate America did not pass that. Unless adds two reliable quads, I don't see him score much high than 270, since he has been give credits for his pcs.

Vincent on the other hand, improves year after year, even with 2 years not competing prior to last season. He has some sort of injury too at the Nationals. He just did not make it so public. As long as Vincent stays healthy, he will probably beat Jason in every competition in two years. Well, Jason may retire by then.

Who should be sent to Worlds? Jason is probably the better choice since Vincent has been competing at the junior level all season. To stay healthy, he should not push himself too hard at 16. He performed pretty well after Nathan's record LP at nationals. So pressure should not be too much of a concern for him.

The argument that he has no world experience, therefore should not be sent there, is again, lame. Did Jason have worlds experience before he was sen for the first time?

I'm not quite sure why you're bringing this up. The selection was made in January and won't change unless Jason withdraws.

Jason was 20 at his first Worlds, had already competed for 2 full seasons as a senior, and had been to the Olympics. Vincent is 16, has never competed internationally as a senior, and didn't have great results this season.

As to your theory that Jason has plateaued around 270: (1) that's an extraordinarily good score without a quad, which would have put him 4th at the GPF; and (2) at SA, he lost about 15 points because neither program was clean. Had he gone clean, he would have scored 283-285 with one quad in each program.

As to whether Vincent will beat Jason at every competition for the next two years: nice that you have a crystal ball, but I wouldn't count on it. Vincent's PB is more than 20 points lower than Jason's and given his chronic underotation problems and much lower PCS, it's questionable how he'll close the gap. Landing a quad lutz doesn't do you much good if you give away lots of points elsewhere.

 

[babyskate]

The Jason trashing really has to stop. It was US Figure Skating's decision to send him. He had no say. To constantly criticize an elite athlete who we all knows works so hard is wrong. I admire and respect what Nathan and Vincent can do but no one moves me in a skating competition more than Jason.
I was sitting next to a lovely Japanese woman at Skate America this year who was clearly there for Shoma. After Jason's performance she turned to me and said she couldn't stop crying he was so beautiful. That is art and sport.
Let's not forget Riverdance which brought US skating to a new place due to the viral video.
I think both our male skaters will put out their best at Worlds and we will be in for an exciting season next year.

 

[andromache]

Yes. And let's not forget that, although Nathan has been skating very well, he also is skating in his first Worlds and will be coming in with a ton of pressure. It's nice that we will have one skater with World and Olympic experience.

Idk, I understand and sometimes support the "experience" argument, especially in regards to allowing new skaters to get some high-pressure experience under their belts, but sometimes I do think it is a little overrated. You see the young Russian ladies with very little/no Worlds/Olympics experience dominate - like Evgenia. Then again, one could argue that lots of JW experience - like the young Russian ladies get - is equally valuable. Vincent, OTOH, has only attended one JW, where he kind of underperformed.

I'm excited to see what Vincent does at JW. He's going in as a medal favorite, and it's pretty vital that he does well for his perception going into the senior GP next season.

 

[Skater Boy]

I think Jason will do fine at the worlds. I admit though in the past, of course different rules now, you would only expect world medal skaters to be put on the team when they didn't make it or were injured so to speak (didn't make the podium) or at least a world medal threat ie Kerrigan. We've gone down the list to with Brown who didn't skate at last year's worlds or sk/k. its in the rules though; it just seems a bit odd. As for Nathan - the guy is a rock and he has a good h ead on his shoulders. He is built for this sport and puberty has been kind. OGM is looking good or at least an oly medal.

 

[Mrs. P]

They also granted a Worlds spot for Denney (Caydee, Haven's sister) and Coughlin in 2013 when they did not compete at Nationals. They ended up not taking it cause she wasn't fully healed in time, but wanted to point out that the Knierms aren't the first.

 

[Yatagarasu]

You see the young Russian ladies with very little/no Worlds/Olympics experience dominate - like Evgenia. Then again, one could argue that lots of JW experience - like the young Russian ladies get - is equally valuable. Vincent, OTOH, has only attended one JW, where he kind of underperformed.

That's not entirely true though. I'd say in general Evgenia's an outlier, for Russian skating and overall, when it comes to mental composure. Sotskova would be a more realistic person to use here; she had a good GP season, good Nationals and yet Masha kind of melted down during the Europeans. Considering Vincent hasn't had a good season at all, his PB is less than Jason's by quite a bit, he is yet to perform well at any Senior big event, I'd say it's a pretty good argument in terms of experience in this case.

He can show at JW that he's a good Junior and all that he has plus learn to handle the pressure because even there, it's big and I agree with you that Junior experience on that level is quite valuable. And yet still, by the time they hit Seniors, it may never translate into any significant success.