The odds are in everyone's favor if they deliver. Because the odds are that most of them don't deliver.
We all know a poll can't tell us who will.
Thoughts:
Hanyu gets both marks, no matter what program he skates to these days and loads of credit from the judges even when he doesn't deliver. He often doesn't deliver when everyone assumes he will. But he's coming from behind after 4CCs and that may be what he needs to finally attack a full two programs at Worlds. If he does, likely no one can stop him. Though I don't think his free skate is very good this season. The short will sell if he hits it, and he may have another seemingly unstoppable lead after it. (Though he may not. He is being outjumped, especially in the short).
Javier likes being the underdog. I don't think he trained like he can this fall or that the GP is representative of his potential. But Europeans was worrying. He could have made a strong statement there, and he didn't. Elvis is OK, and he's getting huge components even when he doesn't deliver these days. But the program doesn't feel like it matches Javi's persona as much as I expected it to, and Malaguena--if anything--feels less powerful than last season. Still, he's in Europe and the crowd will love him if he delivers. He has to deliver because he's not trying the harder quads. We haven't seen him deliver this season.
Shoma has a great free skate. Maybe the best free program of the season. It's powerful. It suits him. And the footwork sequence really works. He's added a LOT of difficulty since last year, including the loop after the GPF. He's getting to the point where he can afford mistakes and still score high. But can he eliminate the mistakes in the big pressure situations? I keep predicting him to fly in under the radar and win something over the guys favored above him--have been doing it for two years now--and am starting to wonder if the answer may be no. But he has the cards to place higher than he has thus far in his career.
Nathan is a competitor. I feel like we've been waiting ever since Plushenko's retirement for a competitor to step up in the men's field, and Nathan is it. He's young. It's his first Worlds. He's trying more difficulty than anyone else. The short program is great, the free not as strong. He won't get the PCS of the more decorated athletes regardless. But he's not relying on it. He's outjumping the field. There are all kinds of reasons to doubt he will win this; and if he doesn't deliver, it will probably be on the axel. But every time I predict him to finish somewhere, he exceeds it. I don't think this field is used to dealing with someone who delivers, and I think they will have to deliver themselves to keep him at bay.
Jin actually has a stellar short program, IMO. One with the potential to get Javi-like crowd applause if he hits it and enough difficulty to score huge. His free has more holes, and his jumps have been questionable in it all season. If he hits the lutz combo like he was last season, then his GOE will go up. But we don't know if he's going for the loop or if he can do it if he does. We know he hands over a lot of PCS points to the the field. He's been too inconsistent this season for me to pick him for the podium; but there's a lot of untapped scoring potential here that we haven't seen from him during the season. He's a dark horse that could definitely surprise if he finally delivers here. Han Yan pulling out isn't good for Jin. It adds pressure.
Patrick does know what it's like to surprise, and we have seen him perform clean free skates enough times in his life that I know better than to count him out. But there's no reason to expect him to hit the salchow; and at this point, I feel like there's good reason to expect that he needs it to win. His axel is just as unpredictable as Nathan's. I actually think Patrick's free skate holds up very well as a vehicle for him. Can't get over the tweeting birds in the short, but of course, the judges don't mind. He's a darker horse than Jin, I think, at this stage; but less pressure is always good for Patrick. And like Hanyu, it's to our advantage if Patrick's fighting spirit comes out. Can Patrick beat a clean Nathan Chen with two clean programs? No, I don't think he can. Can he beat one with a jittery first Worlds. Yes. But Nathan, Shoma, and Hanyu? That's a big ask.
