2018 USFS Olympic team selection thoughts

[Mathman]

I think that no matter the arguments on each side, the USFSA is not going to try to put the genie back in the bottle. By steadily relaxing the "winner takes all" tradition over the last few years, they increase the influence of their Selection Committee. Committees are not in the business of reducing their own power. The USFSA will always want to be the final arbiter of who goes to the Olympics and World Championships.

I, for one, have gotten used to the current practice: Placement at Nationals is the most important factor, but recent success in International competition is also taken into account. This guarantees that, for better or for worse, there will always be plenty of wuz-robbing among fans.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I, for one, have gotten used to the current practice: Placement at Nationals is the most important factor, but recent success in recent International competition is also taken into account. This guarantees that, for better or for worse, there will always be plenty of wuz-robbing among fans.

As long as you don't view Nationals as the sole qualifying event, there shouldn't be any wuz-robbing complaint. Todd Eldridge and Nancy Kerrigan were reigning World and Olympic medalists, respectively. Michelle was Michelle. Ashley hadn't been defeated by an American skater for nearly three full seasons before bombing at the 2014 Nationals. Of those instances, only Ashley actually skated at Nationals.

Personally, I don't like having different qualifications for a medical bye to Worlds/Olympics versus a bye because you skated poorly at Nationals. I'd think you want to incentivize skaters to participate, not give them a reason to skip if there is any question as to whether they will be ready.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Wait, so US curling Olympic trials only include 4 or 5 teams duking it out for an Olympic spot?

I always thought curling would be my best shot of making an Olympic team. I've never done it, but how hard can it be?

 

[bevybean]

I always thought curling would be my best shot of making an Olympic team. I've never done it, but how hard can it be?

Actually, figure skaters and dancer tend to pick it up faster than others. Give it a try!

And, this time around there are only 3 women's teams and 4 men's teams duking it out for the spot. They also seem to have tweaked the rules and US Nats has nothing to do with qualifying. The selection committee also has the right to add discretionary teams. It's crazy, right?

So, maybe all should be grateful for the USFSA way of selecting.

 

[Mathman]

As long as you don't view Nationals as the sole qualifying event, there shouldn't be any wuz-robbing complaint. Todd Eldridge and Nancy Kerrigan were reigning World and Olympic medalists, respectively. Michelle was Michelle. Ashley hadn't been defeated by an American skater for nearly three full seasons before bombing at the 2014 Nationals. Of those instances, only Ashley actually skated at Nationals.

"Shouldn't be." In fact, all of these were vigorously wuz-robbed except Kerrigan. (We Michelle fans didn't have our act together yet in 1994. )

 

[TontoK]

Actually, figure skaters and dancer tend to pick it up faster than others. Give it a try!

And, this time around there are only 3 women's teams and 4 men's teams duking it out for the spot. They also seem to have tweaked the rules and US Nats has nothing to do with qualifying. The selection committee also has the right to add discretionary teams. It's crazy, right?

So, maybe all should be grateful for the USFSA way of selecting.

Curling would be fun, but my dream Olympic event would be bobsled. I don't want to drive, I just want to be one of the guys that rides down the track.

Of course, I know there's much more to it. But, dang, that looks like so much fun. I wonder how old you can be and still be allowed to do it. Just one ride!

On the other hand, those luge and skeleton people must be born crazy, because I don't see how any sane person can do that. LOL.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

"Shouldn't be." In fact, all of these were vigorously wuz-robbed except Kerrigan. (We Michelle fans didn't have our act together yet in 1994. )

I'm referring to Michelle in 2006. Probably the most controversial denial of a medical bye I can think of was Bobek in 1996. She was the reigning WBM and Button assumed she would be named to the team because stated this at the end of the Nationals telecast IIRC. Lipinski was picked, and I think the "official" reason was because Nicole participated in some non-sanctioned shows in December. However, Lipinski was coached then by Bobek's former coach Callahan, so maybe there was some behind-the-scenes lobbying there. Nonetheless, Bobek probably would have been the weakest to receive the bye, as she had only the one notable international result.

 

[LRK]

Curling would be fun, but my dream Olympic event would be bobsled. I don't want to drive, I just want to be one of the guys that rides down the track.

Of course, I know there's much more to it. But, dang, that looks like so much fun. I wonder how old you can be and still be allowed to do it. Just one ride!

On the other hand, those luge and skeleton people must be born crazy, because I don't see how any sane person can do that. LOL.

Well, Richard Hammond did it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RSn7OyBdhM

Of course, I don't know what age he was, but he certainly was a complete novice, so...

 

[concorde]

I have mixed feelings on whether or not placement order should be followed at Nationals.

Figure skating is a dying sport (very sad but true) and it really needs new fans. The only way you can attract new fans is by having a winning team. If the goal is to increase numbers, USFS needs to be looking at who has the best shot at winning. But that choice becomes subjective unless you stay with the placement order. When you have subjective scoring on top of subjective selections, you really get a mess.

Do you look at "bodies of work" and if so, what window should be considered? Let's be honest - an experienced skater with a good track record will always trump the newbie who has no or minimal track record whereas an experience skater that is always hit or miss will most likely be pushed down by the newbie with a positive track record.
Should the trajectory of both skaters be considered? If one is going up and the other is going down (or staying on par), I think the one on the way up should be bumped up. But what about if one is on a downward course and the other is a consistent skater, who is the better choice at that point in time?

Remember in financial investing the saying, "past results do not guarantee future earnings" and I think it has merit here.

Medical byes are slightly different but still no guarantee they will be fully recovered in the required window.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I have mixed feelings on whether or not placement order should be followed at Nationals.

Figure skating is a dying sport (very sad but true) and it really needs new fans. The only way you can attract new fans is by having a winning team. If the goal is to increase numbers, USFS needs to be looking at who has the best shot at winning. But that choice becomes subjective unless you stay with the placement order. When you have subjective scoring on top of subjective selections, you really get a mess.

I think you allude to a good point, which is that the process doesn't have to be so subjective, even taking into account other events. What caused the most controversy in 2014, I believe, was that the USFSA didn't articulate the selection process well enough. If they knew Ashley would be on the team no matter what, they should have announced that prior to the event. You would then have athletes vying for the two remaining spots at Nationals. Everyone would have accepted this outcome. Instead, they created a mess in which 4 skaters have a valid claim to be awarded a place on the team.

 

[TontoK]

Well, Richard Hammond did it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RSn7OyBdhM

Of course, I don't know what age he was, but he certainly was a complete novice, so...

What a fun video! He's a whippersnapper next to me, I'm afraid.

I'd still do it anyway.

 

[bevybean]

What a fun video! He's a whippersnapper next to me, I'm afraid.

I'd still do it anyway.

You can do a bobsled run in Lake Placid. I did it about 15 yrs ago when they still used the old track for that purpose. Now they put you on the new track in the newer sleds. You get and driver and a brakeman. They put you in the sled and only the driver and brakeman do the running push off. It was awesome!!!

 

[bevybean]

I think you allude to a good point, which is that the process doesn't have to be so subjective, even taking into account other events. What caused the most controversy in 2014, I believe, was that the USFSA didn't articulate the selection process well enough. If they knew Ashley would be on the team no matter what, they should have announced that prior to the event. You would then have athletes vying for the two remaining spots at Nationals. Everyone would have accepted this outcome. Instead, they created a mess in which 4 skaters have a valid claim to be awarded a place on the team.

I don't think Ashley should have been determined pre-nationals. If she had really bombed and landed in 6th place, then her track record should not have been enough to put her on the team anyway. However, I think more transparency from the committee would have been good in terms of explaining after the fact maybe. Then again, I also think they would have create less controversy if they had replaced Polina instead of Mirai, even though Polina placed higher. (Nothing would have eliminated the controversy, but it would have less.) The reason is that Polina had no other senior experience. Of course, in the fantasy world that is my brain, the committee would have sent Polina to 4CC and one of them would have spoken with her directly about the decision --explaining that USFSA supports her and is sure she will do great things going forward, etc. Not sure that that would have happened in real life.

 

[Mathman]

^ The ISU strictly followed its published rules, though. There was an official list of criteria in descending order of importance. Placement at U.S. Nationals was given the greatest weight, followed by various other achievements in the current and previous season. Mirai got third at Nationals, but did not check any of the other boxes. (Previous years worlds, grand prix final, etc.) Ashley got fourth at Nationals and got a lot of credit for success in international competition. I don't remember now if Polina got any credit for her exploits as a junior, but in any case her second place at Nationals would put her ahead of Mirai according to the rules.

As I recall, at the time USFSA officials thought that the decision was cut and dried and were somewhat surprised that anyone who had read the rules would object. (They don't knew us fans very well, if they really thought that. )

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

I don't think Ashley should have been determined pre-nationals. If she had really bombed and landed in 6th place, then her track record should not have been enough to put her on the team anyway. However, I think more transparency from the committee would have been good in terms of explaining after the fact maybe. Then again, I also think they would have create less controversy if they had replaced Polina instead of Mirai, even though Polina placed higher. (Nothing would have eliminated the controversy, but it would have less.) The reason is that Polina had no other senior experience. Of course, in the fantasy world that is my brain, the committee would have sent Polina to 4CC and one of them would have spoken with her directly about the decision --explaining that USFSA supports her and is sure she will do great things going forward, etc. Not sure that that would have happened in real life.

There would have been less of a controversy based a groundless accusation that the USFS didn't send Mirai to the Olympics because of Mirai's Asian heritage (and believe me, I usually don't dismiss accusations of institutional racism), but that wouldn't have made the situation any less unfair to Polina who like it or not deservedly beat Mirai and Ashley at Nationals. The new controversy would not have been about Mirai v. Polina, but sending 4th place Ashley over 2nd place Polina AND then instead of being able to paint her as a victim as her fans have been doing since like 2011, some fans will start questioning putting Mirai on the team over Polina. Mirai did not have a season that CLEARLY justified her leapfrogging over anyone who placed higher than her at Nationals. I mean I don't think mere participation should mean you qualify over someone who didn't compete at the same GP series. Either way, your fantasy world where the committee tells Polina how it supports her and any explanation in the world would be a cold comfort to Polina and would really have made Nationals wholly irrelevant.

 

[Impromptu]

I don't really think that the USFSA props up the prettiest skaters for the sake of marketability. I think it is the other way around. A skater distinguishes him- or herself at competitions, then the federation uses that person to market the sport. Nathan Chen will be the face of U.S. figure skating this season.

THe USFSA has been salivating over Chen and promoting him since he was 10 years old. They must be thrilled that the finally bet on the right horse.

 

[concorde]

I watched Nathan practice for the Micheal Weiss ice show at our rink 5-6 years ago. He was truly amazing to watch (wow - his spinning!) and no one knew his name. It is not surprising to me that USFS has been promoting him for so long since the potential was so obvious even at an early age.

 

[ice coverage]

^ The ISU strictly followed its published rules, though. There was an official list of criteria in descending order of importance. Placement at U.S. Nationals was given the greatest weight, followed by various other achievements in the current and previous season. Mirai got third at Nationals, but did not check any of the other boxes. (Previous years worlds, grand prix final, etc.) Ashley got fourth at Nationals and got a lot of credit for success in international competition. I don't remember now if Polina got any credit for her exploits as a junior, but in any case her second place at Nationals would put her ahead of Mirai according to the rules.

As I recall, at the time USFSA officials thought that the decision was cut and dried and were somewhat surprised that anyone who had read the rules would object. (They don't knew us fans very well, if they really thought that. )

I do not doubt that the USFS committee used its published selection criteria for Sochi and 2014 Worlds.

But given the selection criteria, I do not agree that for a Sochi slot, Polina's second place automatically would have put her ahead of Mirai's third place.
Mirai *did* in fact check another significant box from the Sochi criteria -- with a 2013 GP medal.
I think the selection committee had a judgment call to make, and it made it.

Looking at the Sochi criteria:

The athlete selection procedure for the 2014 Olympic Winter Games is as follows:
Team members will be selected by U.S. Figure Skating’s International Committee, taking into consideration the results of events in the following order of importance:
2014 Prudential U.S. Figure Skating Championships
2013 ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final
2013 ISU World Figure Skating Championships
2013 ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating events
2013 Four Continents Championships
2013 Prudential U.S. Figure Skating Championships
2013 World Junior Figure Skating Championships
2013 ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final
Skaters who do not compete at these events due to injury or illness, but who meet the other criteria, may also be considered for selection.

Mirai: third at 2014 Nats + third at 2013 Rostelecom + eighth at 2013 NHK + seventh at 2013 Nats

Polina: second at 2014 Nats + first in Junior Ladies at 2013 Nats + fourth at 2013 JGPF​

A not unreasonable case could have been made that the combination of Mirai's third at 2014 Nats plus her 2013 GP medal was "worth" more than the combination of Polina's second at 2014 Nats + her junior accomplishments (criteria of lower importance than GP results).

The committee went with Polina, which also was not unreasonable.

Just sayin' that I do not think that Polina's silver at 2014 Nats should have made it a no-brainer to give her a Sochi slot over Mirai.
Applying the criteria in this case should have required putting thought into reaching a decision.
The committee's job is to make judgment calls, if necessary, and it made one.

---

2013 GPs and 2013 Nats were not included in the USFS criteria for the 2014 Worlds team, so giving Polina the slot for Worlds would have been a more clear-cut decision.

The athlete selection procedure for the 2014 World Championships is as follows:
The winner in each discipline (ladies, men’s, pairs and ice dance) at the 2014 Prudential U.S. Figure Skating Championships, Jan. 5-12, in Boston, will earn an automatic spot on the 2014 World Team. The remaining team members in each discipline will be selected by U.S. Figure Skating’s International Committee, taking into consideration the results of events in the following order of importance:
2014 Prudential U.S. Figure Skating Championships
2013 ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final
2013 ISU World Figure Skating Championships
2013 ISU Four Continents Figure Skating Championships
2013 ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships
2013 ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final
Skaters who do not compete at the 2014 U.S. Championships due to injury or illness, but who meet the other criteria, may also be considered for selection.

Mirai: third at 2014 Nats

Polina: second at 2014 Nats + fourth at 2013 JGPF​

 

[Moxiejan]

Yes to all of the above.

I have always maintained that the 2014 selection wasn't Ashley in place of Mirai; it was Polina instead of Mirai.
That's why Mirai immediately texted congratulations to Ashley and why she has always pushed back against her fans who have spoken badly of Ashley.

 

[skylark]

I watched Nathan practice for the Micheal Weiss ice show at our rink 5-6 years ago. He was truly amazing to watch (wow - his spinning!) and no one knew his name. It is not surprising to me that USFS has been promoting him for so long since the potential was so obvious even at an early age.

:agree:
Totally agree. Also, when Nathan was 10, I believe he won the Novice Men's division at Nationals, against competitors who were 16 or 17 at the time. So there's that.