2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[Chris_E]

I wondered if anyone else heard that. Thanks, Moxiejan for mentioning it. Sometimes I wonder if I'm in a Twilight Zone situation here.

It only points out, again, that underrotations can be seen in different lights. UR calls are debatable among professionals. And some of the TEC callers don't call them as the rules specify. If a jump is less than 1/4 underrotated, it's meant to be called fully rotated.

The B.Esp commentators not only didn't see those two jumps as UR. They looked closely and judged them fully rotated, long before the scores came up.

Since IJS is supposed to clarify rather than obscure, it's a shame that URs, which are so often debatable and/or go uncalled for other skaters, are given so much weight in the scoring. Making certain skaters nervous about being called UR also can have an adverse effect on their performance, Mirai being the clearest example of that. Audiences are understandably confused and frustrated with such a system.

The US Ladies are being looked at under a microscope. Ashley gave them reason to take a closer look at the landings and they didn't hesitate to not give her the benefit of the doubt. I thought it would have been above Karen after she finished but thought it could be close depending on the levels of the spins. All in all, she doesn't need to be perfect at this competition and she does have a habit of skating her best short at her first Grand Prix and going down from there. I'm hoping for a comeback in the long program to pull up to a decent finish.

 

[andromache]

Even when she's performing well and if she can rotate her jumps, the lack of GOE will hold Ashley back - her jumps, spins, and footwork, even at Ashley's 2017 best, are not going to get the GOE she needs to surpass someone like Karen, unless Karen makes significantly more mistakes (which is definitely possible, of course). All of the top ladies have better jumps or spins than Ashley, and most are better in both areas.

That said, I do believe she is capable of ramping it up to be better by the Olympics and that is probably what she is trying to do. I hope it works.

I have an 8 hour D&D thing this afternoon so I'm going to miss basically all the skating. Fingers crossed for the American ladies! And everyone else!

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I'll admit I'm a little bummed to see less than perfect programs from Ashley and Karen yesterday, but both of them stayed on their feet and podium finishes are still possible. Hip hip chin chin being recycled doesn't bother me--it's a great all around program and I think we'll see it back to it's usual form soon. My only complain there this version of the black dress. C'mon, Ashley, you deserve to dazzle in some color with serious sparkle here!

I hope she gets a new dress, and I think she probably will. I really hope that it's not black--I want her to try something new! Like a deep green/blue or a deep purple. She'd look gorgeous in practically anything though...

 

[Eeyora]

I wonder if there’s more going on with Ashley than what’s been said... She tried so hard to sell that program and she just couldn’t. And she was so dead set on La La Land... if she didn’t feel the character she wouldn’t have picked the music in the first place..

I really really want her to make that Olympic team...

 

[BackSpiral]

They were hardly bordering on being <<, what are you looking at, really. Her Loop shouldn't have even been called < , it was only hit because of the unclean landing.

I was looking at the video obviously. They looked 1/4-1/2 short to me.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It was good for Ashley to get a medal with these performances. I probably would have given Courtney the edge, but I do understand that the judges are more familiar with Ashley and her accomplishments, which can boost her PCS substantially. I'm more bothered than I thought I'd be about her repeating two programs, though. There isn't anything drastically new or exciting about either her SP or LP, and her jumps are objectively worse than they've been in years past. As for Karen, I don't feel like this music complements her skating style, and she seemed somewhat lifeless in the LP. Karen had a mediocre GP last season then came to life by Nationals, so hopefully she does that again this year. However, US women are in a very disappointing state right now and it's sad to see that we have no realistic medal contender for the Olympics.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I was looking at the video obviously. They looked 1/4-1/2 short to me.

Well that doesn't say anything. There's an important range between 1/4 and 1/2 short, and this range is unfortunately where the entire judging system operates. Exactly 1/4 turn short is still a fully credited jump, whereas 1/2 short is a double penalty. Posting screen captures of the takeoff and landing points as you see them would be the best place to start a definitive discussion. I've already scrutinized her jumps in this manner and to me her toeloop combo, despite the swingy landing, was actually rotated a little better than she sometimes does it (quite a few times in the past she really has landed nearly "forwards" compared to takeoff point). The loop was not more than 1/4 short and thus should not have been called at all. If you post a video and screencap analysis, then I will meet you there and put the effort in to make my own visual analysis as well.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The US Ladies are being looked at under a microscope.

Because they almost all have a reputation for under rotating jumps: Ashley, Mirai, Karen, Polina, etc. If you see how Courtney does her solo triples, there is never a debate here about whether she prerotates or lands anywhere close to 1/4 short. She pushes through the jumps and doesn't give the tech panel an opportunity to downgrade them. That's what these other women need to focus on.

 

[artsciboy]

Congrats to Ashley for winning the Bronze Medal and staying in the mix for a GPF slot. Solid skate. Totally disagree with why she's getting the "e" call on her lutz when its clearly on a flat - if she's getting called for it, then so should Kaetlyn and Evgenia. Not the best performance of Moulin Rouge, but the program is so strong and she's so passionate about it, that even with not a 100% performance of it, there are moments when I get chills. The audience agreed, which is why I totally support her decision to go back to this program.

 

[R.D.]

Potentially Unpopular Opinion Upcoming....


Ok. Wagner totally backed into that bronze medal. Totally. I thought her FS was completely uninspiring, not to mention watered-down tech-wise from what we've seen from her the past two years. PLUS she's reusing two programs?? Sorry, I expect more than that. Can't keep relying on others ahead of you to melt down. Come on man... STEP IT UP!!!


Chen, at least I thought her FS was decent enough performance-wise. But the jumps...aren't quite there yet. Still bothers me that she is so prone to UR...


Hicks did well for herself considering. But she typically does OK on the GP circuit and then just runs out of gas by Nationals...that pressure-cooker gets her every. time.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

What is happening???
Why do our ladies have such consistency issues???

Amazing that she pulled up to get on the podium.You know that Ashley’s bronze here will push the US to give her at least a silver at Skate America. I say they should send her to “the spin doctor”, or something! Or have her do runthroughs with all the spins and jumps.

IMO, Ashley’s skate here was very mute, very stale, the jumps and spins.....oy.....

 

[R.D.]

Amazing that she pulled up to get on the podium.You know that Ashley’s bronze here will push the US to give her at least a silver at Skate America.

In that instance she'd be put in her place at the Final, should she go. Like Nagasu, she is a SEASONED VETERAN and has shown decent SELF-AWARENESS in the past of what she needs to improve. I'm assuming she went back to two familiar programs to make it easier for her to make the needed improvements. If she doesn't (or can't, for whatever reason....) make them, well...this season will be a wasted effort on her part, considering her goals.

 

[artsciboy]

Potentially Unpopular Opinion Upcoming....


Ok. Wagner totally backed into that bronze medal. Totally. I thought her FS was completely uninspiring, not to mention watered-down tech-wise from what we've seen from her the past two years. PLUS she's reusing two programs?? Sorry, I expect more than that. Can't keep relying on others ahead of you to melt down. Come on man... STEP IT UP!!!


Chen, at least I thought her FS was decent enough performance-wise. But the jumps...aren't quite there yet. Still bothers me that she is so prone to UR...


Hicks did well for herself considering. But she typically does OK on the GP circuit and then just runs out of gas by Nationals...that pressure-cooker gets her every. time.

The only thing that's watered downed from Ashley's program is that she didn't go for the 3loop-.5 loop-3salchow. The landing on the first loop wasn't good, so what was the girl to do, force the backhalf knowing that she was going to fall? Please.

And you may not like her repeating the program, but a lot of people do. Its not like Ashley performed as if she was dead in the eyes or anything. Its a brilliant program. And at this point, she is still the best US lady on the GP. She's not aiming to be in Olympic shape in October - that would be ridiculous. This was a respectable start. She came away with a medal and legitimately beat some major contenders while doing so.

 

[BackSpiral]

Well that doesn't say anything. There's an important range between 1/4 and 1/2 short, and this range is unfortunately where the entire judging system operates. Exactly 1/4 turn short is still a fully credited jump, whereas 1/2 short is a double penalty. Posting screen captures of the takeoff and landing points as you see them would be the best place to start a definitive discussion. I've already scrutinized her jumps in this manner and to me her toeloop combo, despite the swingy landing, was actually rotated a little better than she sometimes does it (quite a few times in the past she really has landed nearly "forwards" compared to takeoff point). The loop was not more than 1/4 short and thus should not have been called at all. If you post a video and screencap analysis, then I will meet you there and put the effort in to make my own visual analysis as well.

I'll take your word for it. I don't know how to post screencaps. Her toepick looks like it comes down almost 1/2 short at :46 here when I slow the speed down to .25...https://youtu.be/e3K8itxtFMk?t=46s

Here is the loop. It looks better here than from the other angle I saw: https://youtu.be/e3K8itxtFMk?t=2m9s

 

[concorde]

I'll take your word for it. I don't know how to post screencaps. Her toepick looks like it comes down almost 1/2 short at :46 here when I slow the speed down to .25...https://youtu.be/e3K8itxtFMk?t=46s

Here is the loop. It looks better here than from the other angle I saw: https://youtu.be/e3K8itxtFMk?t=2m9s

It only matters what the judges see and each judge has a slightly different angle. Only one camera records the event and all slow motions come from that one camera which is probably a different angle from your TV camera.

My point - just because it looks good on your video does not mean it is good on what the judges are viewing. The only way to guarantee full credit is to clearly land fully backward. Anything less is risky.

 

[Blades of Passion]

"Judging angle" is such an excuse. All jumps exist within a circle. No matter which direction you place your protractor on a circle and measure the degree between two points, it is always going it be the same. That's called math. Problem is, many tech specialists don't even know where to place the protractor to begin with. Obviously we are judging only with our eyes in the current state of the sport, there is no video analysis technology being used in competitions to measure the degrees, but a GOOD caller should have exceptional spational awareness and be able to make a consistent call regardless what angle they see a jump from, as long as the video is high quality.

 

[qwerty]

I think Mariah Bell has the best jump technique (least likely to UR) vs. Ashely, Karen, and Mirai. I had discounted Bell after Salt Lake, but after a mediocre start to the GP series from all the US women, I think she's still seriously in the mix.

Mostly, I'm nostalgic for Fall 2015 when the trajectory was so optimistic for the US women.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

In that instance she'd be put in her place at the Final, should she go. Like Nagasu, she is a SEASONED VETERAN and has shown decent SELF-AWARENESS in the past of what she needs to improve. I'm assuming she went back to two familiar programs to make it easier for her to make the needed improvements. If she doesn't (or can't, for whatever reason....) make them, well...this season will be a wasted effort on her part, considering her goals.

Her only shot at at a major-event medal is in the Olympic team event, and I'm starting to think she might not be a great choice there. If she can't rotate the 3-3, she'd be buried in the SP and her triples don't seem consistent enough for a high LP placement, either. Having said that, there probably aren't going to be better choices among the 3 women who make the team.

 

[Sydney Rose]

Because they almost all have a reputation for under rotating jumps: Ashley, Mirai, Karen, Polina, etc. If you see how Courtney does her solo triples, there is never a debate here about whether she prerotates or lands anywhere close to 1/4 short. She pushes through the jumps and doesn't give the tech panel an opportunity to downgrade them. That's what these other women need to focus on.

These other women are most likely trying desperately to fix their under rotations. They probably just aren't succeeding at it. As many have already said, figure skating is not popular in the US and is also an extremely expensive sport to pursue at the elite level. So the chances of finding someone with the genetic gifts of a Gracie Gold are very slim. The pool of available candidates is just too small.

 

[R.D.]

Her only shot at at a major-event medal is in the Olympic team event, and I'm starting to think she might not be a great choice there.

No, she wouldn't be. But let's step back a moment: honestly, who else have we got?

Chen? Perhaps, but she's just as prone to UR - and she is also shaky, particularly in the FS.

Nagasu? Inconsistent and UR, 'nuff said. So no, unless you like Russian Roulette.

Bell? Let's just say no.

Having said that, there probably aren't going to be better choices among the 3 women who make the team.

Harsh, but.....appears true early on here in the season. At the end of the day, some other posters here have got a point: At this CURRENT stage in time, Wagner, with ALL her flaws, *appears* to be the best of the worst here. It's a race to the bottom. The loss of Gracie Gold WILL BE FELT very quickly by the Program and by the Federation, make no mistake.

Let's hope SOMEONE, whether it is Wagner, one of the others, or some combo of/ALL of them, finds their footing - fast.