2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[skylark]

Someone should have advised Ashely to stop skating long before 5 concussions. Does she wear protective head gear during practice now?

2009 is not 2017. Ashley said that when she was a teen-ager skating at top levels, coaches expected you to go right back onto the ice even if you hit your head on the ice. It's just the difference in what has been learned in the last few years about the lasting effects of concussions.

I have no idea if she wears protective head gear. But I do know that figure skaters on this forum have said that every piece of gear you wear in practice can really throw a performance off when you don't wear it. Someone said that even wearing gloves in practice, then NOT wearing gloves in competitions, has that effect. You'll notice some of the Russian girls wear gloves in every performance. I noticed just today that Karen wore gloves in her FS in a color that blends with her skin color. She nearly always wears contrasting gloves in her SP.

 

[skylark]

Being in peak competitive shape becomes tougher and tougher as you age. Sure, Ashley could compete at the lesser events while NOT at her peak shape, but that won't do any favors to her confidence or the judges' perception of her.

At 26 she is far from old and physically should not have any more trouble being in peak shape than a few years ago.

I keep thinking about what John Coughlin said: that returning to figure skating at age 33 was probably less difficult for Deanna Stellato, because she'd been completely away from figure skating for 16 years, and consequently didn't have the high level of wear and tear on her body that she would've if she'd been competing all those years.

John knows what he's talking about. His injuries, surgery, recovery time meant he and Cadee Denney were out of nationals and worlds in the critical season running up to Olympics 2014. He was approaching 30 at the time.

Figure skating is an Extreme Sport. Sandra Bezic joked about Keegan Messing calling it that. But I wonder if he isn't right.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Karen is one of the most inconsistent top US ladies. The BBC guys said she has the whole package and can challenge for a medal. Everyone can see her potential.
If she puts together a decent showing, she will be on the team for sure.

The other girls are the one who need to show growth trajectory. They cannot rely on placing well at Nationals to earn a spot. Case in point, Mirai.

Not saying that Karen has it in the bag. She just doesn't have to worry about someone else taking her spot like all other girls.

Karen hasn't beaten Mirai, Ashley, or Courtney this season. She can make the Olympic team, but she hasn't done anything to earn it without a medal at Nationals.

 

[Moxiejan]

Perhaps Ashley's mindset is that she doesn't want a repeat of 2013-14, when she did extremely well in the GP events and then wasn't at her peak for Nationals. Though I'm sure she wants to be OK in her GPs, her whole schedule this year is likely geared toward peaking later in Jan-Feb instead of Nov-Dec. I don't think an early Senior B would have fit into that plan at all.

She now has nearly a month until Skate America. If she is meeting her trajectory, she should have more attack to the choreography of both programs. Really, I was more concerned about that than her URs, given the way the SC panel was calling. Heck, even Courtney got 2 in the LP.

 

[R.D.]

Which is why I think Ashley needs to compete more. She rarely goes to Challenger events or anything other than the Grand Prix, Nationals and Worlds. As someone who is a competitive athlete, 5 or 6 times a year is not enough to get used to the nerves and pressure. It is possible to learn to compete better but it takes a lot of practice.

I agree....to an extent. That said, I can understand wanting to hold back somewhat at her age to conserve energy specifically for later in the season - especially with her competitive history. It's a judgment call, but a tough one. I think there is a middle ground somewhere. Question then becomes, is Wagner walking that line or can she shift right a bit more? Personally, I don't think an extra comp or two could hurt to get her more consistent under pressure. But maybe Team Wagner feels differently.

Karen is one of the most inconsistent top US ladies. The BBC guys said she has the whole package and can challenge for a medal. Everyone can see her potential.
If she puts together a decent showing, she will be on the team for sure.

The other girls are the one who need to show growth trajectory. They cannot rely on placing well at Nationals to earn a spot.

Chen has her 4th place finish at last year's Worlds to lean on, where she bested Wagner. However - if Wagner is able to get herself into GPF and do well there, the advantage will shift over to Wagner, especially if Chen stagnates. Note that this is BEFORE Nationals.

 

[ask]

Karen hasn't beaten Mirai, Ashley, or Courtney this season. She can make the Olympic team, but she hasn't done anything to earn it without a medal at Nationals.

She will need to medal to go for sure. She just doesn't have to worry about placing 3rd and someone else will go in her place. That's what she has over all other girls.

 

[Mathman]

I can't ever remember a time when U.S. ladies were in such a state of flux approaching the Olympics. Nobody is a favorite, no one is out of the picture, in terms of making the Olympic team.

 

[R.D.]

I can't ever remember a time when U.S. ladies were in such a state of flux approaching the Olympics. Nobody is a favorite, no one is out of the picture, in terms of making the Olympic team.

I think 2010 might come close. That could have been any two among Nagasu, Flatt, Wagner, Czisny and Zhang. The only consistent one among the bunch was Flatt, but I don't even think it was a consensus that she was a done deal for that Team.

This season has just begun however. Don't know if the picture will become clearer, but I bet the Selection Committee is praying for that to happen.

 

[klutzy]

Well, if it's not clear by Nationals, then Nationals will end up being used as the Olympic trials. The whole "body of work" thing struck me as a way of making sure that a skater who did well otherwise, but bombed Nationals, would still be sent--i.e. Ashley over Mirai in 2012. If there's no stand-out, then Nationals rank will be the fallback. The U.S. champion will go and I'd expect second place as well. It's really one spot where I'd expect there to be leeway.

 

[Figure 8's]

She will need to medal to go for sure. She just doesn't have to worry about placing 3rd and someone else will go in her place. That's what she has over all other girls.

The season is still very early. Most Skaters are worried about peaking too early.

 

[corynna]

I can't ever remember a time when U.S. ladies were in such a state of flux approaching the Olympics. Nobody is a favorite, no one is out of the picture, in terms of making the Olympic team.

I think Ashley is a lock for the Olympic team. From the current US ladies she is the only one with a World silver medal, she was on the podium at her first GP and with her skating skills she will score big if clean. So I don't think the federation will risk not sending her, regardless what will happen at nationals.
The other 2 spots are a big question mark at this moment.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The season is still very early. Most Skaters are worried about peaking too early.

While this is true, the Russian women are already in top shape. The US women need to step up so they are viewed as medal contenders. Karen, in particular, needs to start having better international outings so her PCS gets up out of the lower 60s in the LP.

 

[Tolstoj]

Karen hasn't beaten Mirai, Ashley, or Courtney this season. She can make the Olympic team, but she hasn't done anything to earn it without a medal at Nationals.

Even the others aren't doing amazing things: Ashley was on the podium at SC, good but both her programs were far from ideal.

Mirai was disappointing at the Rostelecom Cup, Mariah same type of performances from last season (she is not going to compete for a top spot)... the door is open for everyone.

Honestly i was hoping to see Courtney ahead of Ashley: first America needs to have a new Ashley for the future after the Olympics, and it might be Courtney, while Ashley needs to understand that she was lucky at Skate Canada because for example at the Rostelecom Cup she would have finished off the podium behind Higuchi and Sakamoto, so she needs more stable jumps and spins.

And everyone should do the summer camp to mishin or go to some other technician because no one is struggling with URs more than the american ladies this season: Ashley, Karen, Mirai, Polina Mariah... the only one who isn't is Courtney right now.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Honestly i was hoping to see Courtney ahead of Ashley: first America needs to have a new Ashley for the future after the Olympics, and it might be Courtney, while Ashley needs to understand that she was lucky at Skate Canada because for example at the Rostelecom Cup she would have finished off the podium behind Higuchi and Sakamoto, so she needs more stable jumps and spins.

I would have liked to see Courtney ahead of Ashley as well, but I'm ok with the result because Courtney's LP music is really awful for her. Courtney's SP shows that she is artistically more versatile than many of us thought, but that LP is very uninspired. Also, I'd like to see an American in the GPF and, unlike Courtney, Ashley has two events to qualify.

 

[mrrice]

While this is true, the Russian women are already in top shape. The US women need to step up so they are viewed as medal contenders. Karen, in particular, needs to start having better international outings so her PCS gets up out of the lower 60s in the LP.

Have we seen any clips of Gracie practicing? Until I get a chance to see her and Polina later in the season, it's too early for me to make a good guess. I think Ashley's a lock after moving up the way she did in Canada. At this point, I think the committee would put her on the team like they did in 2014. If Mirai skates well in her GP's I think it will do a lot for her confidence and with her new and improved jumps, I think she'll make it too. Unlike some others, I think the US having a 3rd spot is crucial....After seeing Courtney Hicks, Angela Wang, and Bradie, there's a chance that we'll see a new medalist at Nationals. Karen Chen, Mariah Bell are great skaters but, I'm not a fan of either of their programs.

 

[frida80]

I worry about Ashley going the GPF. The potential line up will be Evgenia, Kaetlyn, Mai, Wakaba, Alina and Carolina. Ashley should sneak in over Mai or Wakaba. What ever the case, there are some very heavy hitters who've scored very high. Ashley could land in sixth place easily. It would not even the statement she would want to make before nationals.

I almost wish she could end her fall with SA so she could have a triumphant win going into nationals and build on that momentum.

 

[Mathman]

I almost wish she could end her fall with SA so she could have a triumphant win going into nationals and build on that momentum.

And a triumphant win at Skate America is not guaranteed.

 

[SkaterX]

I worry about Ashley going the GPF. The potential line up will be Evgenia, Kaetlyn, Mai, Wakaba, Alina and Carolina. Ashley should sneak in over Mai or Wakaba. What ever the case, there are some very heavy hitters who've scored very high. Ashley could land in sixth place easily. It would not even the statement she would want to make before nationals.

I almost wish she could end her fall with SA so she could have a triumphant win going into nationals and build on that momentum.

I think being a US lady right now and making it to the GPF at all would be a huge boon.

 

[frida80]

And a triumphant win at Skate America is not guaranteed.

No it is not. But if Ashley is sufficiently fired up, the home soil advantage would raise her PCS scores to 9 to 9.25. It should push her over the edge. That is unless Karen really out skates her in the short and she someone lands behind Bradie. But Ashkey always does well in the underdog position. I’m not sure how she can lose this unless she just isn’t in it mentally. This is her’s to lose.

 

[mrrice]

And a triumphant win at Skate America is not guaranteed.

Well, she doesn't really need to win for her performance to be considered triumphant by the fans. As long as she gives the home crowd a thrill, it will be great for her confidence and keep her at the front of the US pack.