2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[samson]

^I think a big difference to this season from last for Mirai is she has good performances from this season she can point to to help her trust her training.

Last season I remember a big part of Mirai's narrative through the fall was the frustration of having made changes to her training and working her harder than ever and seeing results in practice but not yet in competition.

She hasn't been perfect for sure this fall, but 134 and change and some rotated triple axels (even if with -goe) is nothing to sneeze at. Also her standings may not be particularly amazing, but her scores are much much higher than anything she's delivered in the grand prix before.

Of course, at this point all any of us can do is just speculate, hope her training goes well, and see what comes of it all come January, but she seems to be leaving Japan in good spirits, with good scores, and certainly in the context of the US Ladies Olympic Team Race, with some real momentum into nationals.

 

[temadd]

The range of marks have to cover a wide variety of abilities. Here are the marks given at 2017 Euros for the ladies LP: http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/ec2017/SEG004.HTM I see only one score below 5, a 4.96 for the 20th place finisher. You may not like certain skaters' interpretive abilities, but the judges don't use a large range of marks for top contenders.

Why have different categories in PCS? Really with the way judges use the system now they could give one number for PCS. It seems a waste of time and energy to have those categories if the judges give almost the same # for each.

 

[brightphoton]

Why have different categories in PCS? Really with the way judges use the system now they could give one number for PCS.

Hmmmmm you're onto something there, temadd. One number for general artistry ... the highest value of that artistry component could become an iconic number, like 5.0, or 8.0, or ...

ah, well, I don't think that could ever happen in figure skating.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Why have different categories in PCS? Really with the way judges use the system now they could give one number for PCS. It seems a waste of time and energy to have those categories if the judges give almost the same # for each.

I have mixed feelings about what you wrote. On the one hand, there is a lot of arbitrariness in the scoring, so why make it look like more things are being evaluated than they actually are? The marks probably reflect as much the reputation of the skater, the skate order, the make-up of the judging panel, and the geographic location of the event as much as they do the quality of the performance. However, I do think having the separate marks does force the judge to think a little bit about the various aspects of the program.

 

[beki]

Don't you ever find yourself correctly guessing the value of elements after you've watched enough? Without seeing the levels or the technical calls first. Oh, those twizzles look like an 8; that combo must be an 11. And sometimes I can do it for PCS too, just one number at the end, without breaking down any of the categories. If so-and-so's a 68, that other skater's a 75. I understand the intent behind separate components, and how they're used as justification for the scores, but in a way the old idea of placements feels more appropriate when it comes to artistry. I can only score it relatively, not absolutely. I'm no expert like a judge should be, but still. The mind works by comparison.

 

[R.D.]

Alissa's competitive career basically came to an end after she had that rough showing at Worlds in 2012. Some say that she was masking an injury and I think placed 22nd.....

Yeah, after falling on just about every jump. And she was injured, although she did not reveal it until afterward.

I think she is still around, doing the occasional show - thought I saw her in pics from Scott Hamilton’s ice show in Ohio.

 

[temadd]

I have mixed feelings about what you wrote. On the one hand, there is a lot of arbitrariness in the scoring, so why make it look like more things are being evaluated than they actually are? The marks probably reflect as much the reputation of the skater, the skate order, the make-up of the judging panel, and the geographic location of the event as much as they do the quality of the performance. However, I do think having the separate marks does force the judge to think a little bit about the various aspects of the program.

I agree with you 100% but unfortunately the judges don't seem to have the guts to judge how they see it. I would love to see scores that truly reflect the different aspects of the program but it just doesn't happen.

 

[chuckm]

Sorry to talk about a Russian here so this is my last comment: I'm referring only to the "performance" scores in the PCS and she had little to no expression or connection to the music and audience. If Polina T gives the same at SA, Ashley should have significantly higher performance numbers. But unfortunately judges don't seem to think it's ok to have 6's in one area of PCS and 8's in others.

Then the same thing should happen to Mirai, who shows even less connection to the music and audience, and indeed she did get lower PCS marks than Polina in both SP and FS at NHK. In the FS, Mirai got 8s in SS and PE but only 7s in TR CO and IN, while Polina got 8s in all of the components.

 

[Moxiejan]

It wasn't a bomb, but an UR 3-3 and Lo in the short at SC is pretty bad. When you have 3 jumping passes and 2 are UR . . . not good and I say this with love in my heart for Ashley.

And where the heck has her 3Lo gone? It used to be her best jump.

The uber-strict tech calling at SC (for everyone, just not Ashley) was not typical. Let's see what happens at SA & hopefully the final.

 

[kimi492]

I guess I need someone smarter than me to explain it (LOL) but how is Mirai not a shoe-in at this point? Unless she completely bombs at Nationals. This is a genuine question if anyone could help explain it to me

 

[temadd]

The uber-strict tech calling at SC (for everyone, just not Ashley) was not typical. Let's see what happens at SA & hopefully the final.

Her 3 Lo has been on a downward slide since last year. I don't think it was the strict tech panel. She used to land it cleanly with out question. It has been a genuine issue not just a judging problem.

 

[NAOTMAA]

It's funny how Ashley dominates the conversation with people wondering how she'll fare here and there. What happens if its 2014 redux, this, that. Then its all about Mirai and all the worries and fears about her not standing up to the moment. There is even some Mariah thrown in here and there. Now we get people wondering about Polina. But what about the reigning national champ Karen Chen? What's going on with her and where does she stand? It's been a while since she has been mentioned

It seems like shes the one who, despite being the defending national champ and finishing fourth at last years worlds, is most vulnerable and not Ashley or Mirai. It's been nothing but downhill since while the other two have at least this season shown some positives. Polina at least has the injury comeback excuse.

What if Polina proves that she is improving and on the upward swing at TB while Karen continues her struggles at SA? Then at nationals the podium is 1. Ashley/Mirai 2. Ashley/Mirai 3. Polina 4. Karen. Who does the USFSA choose? Karen or Polina?

Will her fourth place at last years worlds hold more weight in the eyes of the USFSA then her continuing struggles this season if she finishes fourth to any of the other girls? Very early in the season it appeared the USFSA was full steam on the Karen Chen train, especially after Gracie took herself out, but who knows where it stands now. I think she has more pressure at her last event heading into nationals then any of the others

 

[Jammers]

I guess I need someone smarter than me to explain it (LOL) but how is Mirai not a shoe-in at this point? Unless she completely bombs at Nationals

Not sure how she's a shoe-in since she didn't come close to making the podium at either of her GP events. Even Gracie who struggled during the Olympic season heading into Nationals was not a total shoe-in even though she did medal in the GP and almost won Nationals the year before but Gracie had the advantage of if she was close to skating clean was going to be top 2 at Nationals and was a top 6 skater in the world when she was on but Mirai hasn't shown the potential that Gracie had in 2014 and she needed to prove herself during the GP.

 

[SarahSynchro]

Polina could totally show up at nationals and mop the floor with everyone else. Who knows? She's never really had a decent GP series, but she sure showed up to nationals in both 2014 and 2016 and shocked a lot of us.

 

[apgold]

At this point, three months out my bet for the Olympic team will be Ashley, Karen and Mirai, with Mirai having a good chance to grab the gold based on her latest outing, as long as she doesn't psych herself out like she did last year.

Ashley's tech has been on the downswing, but she still has good PCS. Mirai's tech is on the upswing, but she still faces challenges on the PCS side of things. Karen has been a mixed bag so far, but could still hit it for Nationals like she did last year.

I don't see Mariah bouncing back while reworking her technique. Polina isn't back to her old form even though I like her grown up style.

Skate America will answer a lot of questions on the ladies front. Ashley has the chance to get her tech score up, Karen can pull herself together and Bradie can also be a spoiler. We shall see.

 

[kimi492]

Not sure how she's a shoe-in since she didn't come close to making the podium at either of her GP events. Even Gracie who struggled during the Olympic season heading into Nationals was not a total shoe-in even though she did medal in the GP and almost won Nationals the year before but Gracie had the advantage of if she was close to skating clean was going to be top 2 at Nationals and was a top 6 skater in the world when she was on but Mirai hasn't shown the potential that Gracie had in 2014 and she needed to prove herself during the GP.

Okay but the situation is very different this year then the 2013-2014 Olympic season - no American lady is having a great year so far - and Gracie is not here - who are you suggesting they send instead?

 

[NAOTMAA]

Polina could totally show up at nationals and mop the floor with everyone else. Who knows? She's never really had a decent GP series, but she sure showed up to nationals in both 2014 and 2016 and shocked a lot of us.

She did win 4CC in 2015. Not as prestigious as the GP series or worlds but the competition was pretty decent so it is something

but you are right, nationals does seem to be her best competition each year. It brings out the best in her as it brings the worst in Mirai

 

[tosca]

At this point, three months out my bet for the Olympic team will be Ashley, Karen and Mirai, with Mirai having a good chance to grab the gold based on her latest outing, as long as she doesn't psych herself out like she did last year.

Ashley's tech has been on the downswing, but she still has good PCS. Mirai's tech is on the upswing, but she still faces challenges on the PCS side of things. Karen has been a mixed bag so far, but could still hit it for Nationals like she did last year.

I don't see Mariah bouncing back while reworking her technique. Polina isn't back to her old form even though I like her grown up style.

Skate America will answer a lot of questions on the ladies front. Ashley has the chance to get her tech score up, Karen can pull herself together and Bradie can also be a spoiler. We shall see.

I agree. This is how I look at the field so far:

Ashley
The uber Ashley fans say she is going to clean up the tech. The opposing side says she has been on a downward spiral. The truth of the matter is that she has been on a downward spiral since LY. She has been posting all these videos of her working on her spins but they are still so slow. BUT somehow Ashley always seems to peak with a home crowd. I firmly believe that she will clean up a bit for nationals AND will have some favorable calls from the tech panel. She has the MOST sponsors of the ladies and unless she lands lower than 4th, I cannot imagine the federation NOT sending her. My bet is that she lands in 3rd at nationals.

Polina
We haven't seen much of her - the next GP will be very telling but I will be surprised if she actually makes it higher than 5th at Nationals. I could even imagine a Mirai situation where she lands on the podium and they choose one of the other ladies over her. She has another cycle in her which might give the federation more reason to hold off on sending her this time especially if she has a poor outing in this next GP.

Mariah
She has beautiful qualities but reworking the technique this year was poorly timed and it looks like its affecting her confidence. All the commentators are saying it but she needs a coach that can actually focus on her. Kori was focused on Jason, Raf on Nathan, , , , Ashley, and Adam in that order. I cannot imagine her making the podium. And depending on who doesn't make the podium, if Mariah did, I also think the federation would choose another more prominent skater over her.

Mirai
I am personally biased (although she did exceed my prediction post for NHK!). Let's keep it real - the axel isn't a lock but the buzz is and she is riding that wave. The performance is not where it needs to be but she also has shown glimmers during NHK: a furrowed brow here, a smile there... I think NHK gave her a good confidence boost and she has timing on her hands. She has all this time to focus on training for nationals and yes, my girl Mirai is a head case but nobody can refute that she has been hitting that ice with a newfound determination. I think she is really taking ownership of her skating and I believe she has a really good shot of making the team.

Karen
The US is in a sea of head cases/inconsistencies. I think Karen (although it PAINS me to say it over my girl MN) has the highest potential to be in the final flight at the Olympics for the current crop of US ladies. She has the PCS when she is on and has the higher ceiling tech wise than Ashley. She has a chance to make once last case for herself at Skate America...

And just because people like to bring them out of the woodwork:

Bradie
It isn't going to happen.

Courtney
It isn't going to happen.

I might eat my words but at Skate America, no US lady will be higher than 2nd... but I honestly feel like it will be Karen in 2/3 and then Ashley one level below Karen. Said it.

Thats just my personal opinion but I feel like some die hards might come after me so if you do not hear from me again... It was nice posting 28 times.

 

[NAOTMAA]

How do you know Bradie Tennell isn't going to happen

Her total score at Lombardia Trophy (196.70) is higher then what any US lady has posted so far on the GP (including Mirai's NHK) and her other competition score at Philadelphia (184.98) is right up there in the mix as well.

If she continues to score that well and skates great at SA its foolish to discount her. Every skater has a break through season and so far Bradie is outdoing her past self by quite a bit. She's on the upswing at this moment while all the others are on a up and down trampoline

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I guess I need someone smarter than me to explain it (LOL) but how is Mirai not a shoe-in at this point? Unless she completely bombs at Nationals. This is a genuine question if anyone could help explain it to me

She has one top three finish in her last 6 nationals appearances. She has not won a GP medal since 2013. She made one appearance at Worlds in the last 7 years, where she finished 10th. On what basis is she a shoo-in?