2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[macy]

I don't think there's anything wrong with not competing much. To me it doesn't sound like Ashley respects her chosen field. If she wants to only do Worlds/Olympics ("Skate America doesn't matter, I only want to be national and Olympic champion") then she better well be skating like a phenom at everything she does do. It's funny because she, of all people, should know that everything now counts! Not just Nationals.

I think what she meant by this is she knows "body of work" is no longer part of the selection criteria USFS will use to get her on the team. she knows she didn't do stellar last year. she knows that was a one time deal and it's anyone's game at this point. she said this meaning nationals is largely what will determine if she's on the team or not, and she's right. she knows she needs to be healthy and put out 2 solid skates in January. she also is aware skate America is important too, which is why she tried to compete, but nationals is what will determine the Olympic team this time around. also keep in mind she most likely wasn't thinking completely straight when she was interviewed directly after coming off the ice.

 

[R.D.]

Does USFSA want to send a "woman" who winks at the crowd but currently scoring in the 180s or do they want someone who can break 200?

I think at the end of the day, they’ll be reasonable. After all, Sasha Cohen wasn’t sent to Vancouver.

 

[Icey]

any word as how long Asley's doctor says she should stay off the ice?

 

[LiamForeman]

She used to coach Megan Oster.

And Savannah Smith.

 

[Ares]

I think this Olympic year will need to be considered an investment in the future for the US Ladies. The problem is number of spots going forward (can't remember if Olympic spots are based on the previous Olympics or previous Worlds) but the more spots the better. Send Bradie to get that first Olympics under her belt just in case her jumps survive a growth spurt. I'm not an Ashley fan, but I've got no problem with a healthy Ashley going, as she usually manages to place well in terms of keeping spots for next time. The third in my mind is wide open. If somebody new goes gangbusters at Nationals and is somewhat grown, I have no problem sending her, again to get Olympic experience. The URers that I can think of have had plenty of time to at least make some progress, which they really have not. Frankly, has anybody ever consistently fixed this problem once they reach the elite level?

What kind of growth spurt for Bradie do you expect? I mean she's 19 for God's sake! It takes 5 seconds to find out how old she is.

How many skaters you can send for the Olympics in ladies (for example) essentially depends on the sum of placements in preceding World Championship not on their results in Winter Olympics 4 years before that so it does not matter here at all in this context.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Bradie is consistent but she is quite new to the scene and I don't think it's possible for her at the moment to be considered an "elite skater" When the top skaters fail, her consistency (provided that she is indeed consistent under real pressure too) helps her but without elite PCS she cannot do much since she will be facing the best technicians out there.

If Bradie is able to win Nationals, she will probably earn decent PCS scores in upcoming events, at least higher than what she earned at Skate America. She would probably need to do 4CC to have another good showing in front of international judges.

 

[leafygreens]

I think what she meant by this is she knows "body of work" is no longer part of the selection criteria USFS will use to get her on the team. she knows she didn't do stellar last year. she knows that was a one time deal and it's anyone's game at this point. she said this meaning nationals is largely what will determine if she's on the team or not, and she's right. she knows she needs to be healthy and put out 2 solid skates in January. she also is aware skate America is important too, which is why she tried to compete, but nationals is what will determine the Olympic team this time around. also keep in mind she most likely wasn't thinking completely straight when she was interviewed directly after coming off the ice.

Do you mean that USFSA will only use the criteria when it suits who they wanted to pick anyway? If they ignore selection criteria after they have published it, it doesn't make them look credible or fair to all competitors. Last quad they were vocal to reporters that nationals wasn't the end-all and even the winner was not guaranteed.

Here's a more recent article about the selection procedures.
http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2017/01/20/214003280/new-rule-impacts-world-team-selection-procedure

It references this article which complains about the "back rooom" and offers a solution.
http://www.iceskatingintnl.com/Competitions/2017Nationals/world%20team%20selection.htm

It would not be particularly difficult to construct a ranking method using the skaters' recent competition results, to determine team selection. Throughout the season, skaters would know where they stood in their quest to make the team, and going into Nationals (which would have the highest weighting in any rankings) they would know exactly how well they would have to do to make the team. This approach would allow selection of teams most likely to produce the best results, and still keep control of team selection primarily in the hands of the skaters through an unambiguous quantitative process, and not the qualitative opinions of a committee.

 

[macy]

Do you mean that USFSA will only use the criteria when it suits who they wanted to pick anyway? If they ignore selection criteria after they have published it, it doesn't make them look credible or fair to all competitors. Last quad they were vocal to reporters that nationals wasn't the end-all and even the winner was not guaranteed.

to clarify, I mean that Ashley actually had a very good "body of work" the last couple years going into 2014. it was clear she was the top US lady all the way up to nationals. last season and this season have been less than great for Ashley, and she doesn't have such a solid body of work to fall back on like she did last time. i'm sure she knows USFS can't/won't use body of work this time, because of her weaker results the last year or so. it's all or nothing at nationals.

 

[chuckm]

Caroline skated last week at Tallinn and was 4th behind Stanislava Konstantina, Alisa Fedichkina and Nicole Schott (10th at CoR and 7th at TDF).

SP: 6. 56.35 (29.71+26.64) 6.85 6.55 6.70 6.60 6.60 0.00 3f, 3lo<+3lo<, 2a
FS: 3. 114.47 (58.31+56.16) 7.20 6.60 7.15 7.10 7.05 0.00 3f+2t, 3ze, 3t, 3lo+3lo<, 3f+2t+2lo, 2a, 2a

Her PCS scores were really low, probably because of her lack of speed.

Karen Chen, Bradie Tennell and Starr Andrews are scheduled to skate at Golden Spin next week. The main competition there is similar to what Zhang faced at Tallinn: Konstantinova, Fedichkina, Schott and Tuktamysheva.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Do you mean that USFSA will only use the criteria when it suits who they wanted to pick anyway? If they ignore selection criteria after they have published it, it doesn't make them look credible or fair to all competitors. Last quad they were vocal to reporters that nationals wasn't the end-all and even the winner was not guaranteed.

I think the main issue is that, based on the selection criteria, no one has an edge. Bradie has had the best season but had a bad Nationals. Karen had the best showing at Nationals and Worlds but has not beaten any of the Nationals podium contenders this season in multiple events. Ashley had the second best Nationals and Worlds but only completed one event this season. Mirai has the 3A but her results haven't changed much from past seasons. None of these women can make a good case to bump a podium finisher if they come in 4th.

 

[chuckm]

to clarify, I mean that Ashley actually had a very good "body of work" the last couple years going into 2014. it was clear she was the top US lady all the way up to nationals. last season and this season have been less than great for Ashley, and she doesn't have such a solid body of work to fall back on like she did last time. i'm sure she knows USFS can't/won't use body of work this time, because of her weaker results the last year or so. it's all or nothing at nationals.

Ashley still has an overall better body of work than anyone else when it comes to US Nationals + GP + International results over the past 3 seasons, including this one. She has medaled in the GP every year, finished in the top 3 at Nationals (including one US Championship), and finished in the top 7 at Worlds, including one silver World medal.

Karen has finished top 3 at Nationals two years (including one US Championship) out of the past 3 and top four at Worlds once, but has never medaled in the GP.

Mirai has not finished top 3 at Nationals in the past 3 years, has not medaled in the GP in the past 3 years, and has been to Worlds once, where she finished tenth.

Mariah has finished top 3 at Nationals once, medaled in the GP once, and went to Worlds once, where she finished 12th.

Bradie Tennell won the Junior Championship in 2015, finished 6th at the US Championships in 2016, and 9th in 2017. She was 7th at JW 2017. She won a medal at her first GP event this year.

 

[sinnerspinner]

As much as I adored Ashley's skate at the 2016 World's, and as much as I love following her career, she should not get a ticket to the Olympics if she doesn't crack top 3 at Nationals. Period. And I hope she's scored realistically there and not given the unhelpful inflation she usually gets.

Agreed 100%. I hope they dont send Ashley based on starpower. She should have to earn a top 3 spot at nationals. Id love to see Mirai go to the Olympics.

 

[deneuved]

I actually think the US federation will send Ashley regardless of how she does in Nationals. She has secured spots for the US in the past years, and the year 2018 will most probably be her last, and it's kind of a "good bye and thank you" gift. The other two spots - I don't know. Bradie seems a good idea, as she is fresh and new, and showed she can score in Skate America. I'd personally give the third spot to Karen - she CAN be great I never got Mirai, I think her programmes are duller than dull always and to me, she has no charisma at all.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

As much as I adored Ashley's skate at the 2016 World's, and as much as I love following her career, she should not get a ticket to the Olympics if she doesn't crack top 3 at Nationals. Period. And I hope she's scored realistically there and not given the unhelpful inflation she usually gets.

Agreed. This season for her was very different than her GPF season when she won a silver and a gold on the Grand Prix and a bronze at the GPF. So far, none of the American ladies have broken out from the pack, and it should be anyone's game with no body of work considerations.

Ideally though, there would be some sort of mechanism where the National champion gets an Olympic spot and 2nd-4th go to Four Continents to battle for the remaining 2 spots, although that might be way too close to the Olympics. But that's how I would do it.

 

[R.D.]

I never got Mirai, I think her programmes are duller than dull always and to me, she has no charisma at all.

Biggest problem with Nagasu is that she doesn’t rotate her jumps. Full stop

______

USFS better be real careful about how they handle Wagner this time around. I see again that the two parties share at least one sponsor; that already makes the optics look poor (not to mention the obvious conflict of interest).

If for whatever reason they coddle her, expect the 2018 backlash to be even more vicious than 4 years ago.

 

[chuckm]

Agreed. This season for her was very different than her GPF season when she won a silver and a gold on the Grand Prix and a bronze at the GPF. So far, none of the American ladies have broken out from the pack, and it should be anyone's game with no body of work considerations.

Ideally though, there would be some sort of mechanism where the National champion gets an Olympic spot and 2nd-4th go to Four Continents to battle for the remaining 2 spots, although that might be way too close to the Olympics. But that's how I would do it.

Neither the USFS nor the USOC would ever agree to such a solution. And 4CC is much too close to the start of the Olympics to expect skaters to do both / perform well at both.

I agree with what a few posters have said: if it comes to a choice between Mirai and Ashley, I'd go with Ashley. Ashley didn't have such a good season last year, yet she managed to finish 7th at Worlds. You never know what you're going to get with Mirai, and now that she insists on doing the 3a, her results are even more unpredictable.

At least Ashley gives a performance and earns high PCS scores even if her tech isn't perfect. Mirai concentrates only on her tech, which is never perfect anyway, and her performances are flat, so she gets low PCS even when she skates fairly cleanly.

I'd much prefer performers like Ashley, Karen and Bradie. But that's just me.

I can just hear the screaming now if it's Mirai who gets left off the team again. :scard8:

 

[andromache]

No one has been a standout since Ashley won silver at Worlds. No GPF medals or even trips. A GP event medal here and there. USFS is crazy if they send anyone to the Olympics but the top 3 at Nationals, even if the podium ends up being something totally crazy. For Worlds spots in an Olympic season, I'd take 4-6 at Nationals and send them to 4CCs to see how they do there before making any decisions. Because Worlds placements determine spots for the next year, you should be a little more deliberative. With Olympics, you can afford to be more reckless, especially when no one is a standout.

Phil Hersh referred to Ashley as a "one-eyed goddess in a land of the blind" and he's totally right, sadly.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

If for whatever reason they coddle her, expect the 2018 backlash to be even more vicious than 4 years ago.

I don't think the USFSA can bye her onto the team with her record this last year, relative to her peers. She would have lost to Bradie (and maybe Karen) at SA, and probably should have lost to Courtney at SC. If she doesn't skate well at Nationals, the only way to get her on the team would be to manipulate the marks by ignoring her under rotations and lutz edge, while making those calls on other skaters. However, I think she can give a steady performance and make it on her own merits because none of the women besides Bradie are competing well.

 

[qwerty]

Biggest problem with Nagasu is that she doesn’t rotate her jumps. Full stop

Not a problem unique to Mirai among the US women, unfortunately. In fact, I think Mirai's 3-3 is less dubious than Ashley and Karen's at this point.

 

[IndependentObserver]

Churckm - always consistent with dogging Mirai. I see in your previous post, you conveniently left off her two previous 4CC's medals, beating your preferred performer Karen - who I'd say is now more wildly inconsistent currently than Mirai and only 'performs' at her best when she hits her jumps. I'll give you the fact Ashley will sell a performance and go down with the ship, no matter if the jumps are there. Let's face it, Ashley lucked into that bronze at Skate Canada, because the rest of the field below her also underperformed or imploded.

And when looking at season's best scores, Mirai is second best in the total and LP among US ladies (below Bradie), and in the SP - 3rd (to Karen).

Yes - we get it chuckm - Mirai is a zombie and you don't like her performance skills, but don't sweep her accomplishments under the rug to diminish her. Rewatch her skates from NHK, especially the short program. Lots more face and emotion than ever before - which I know isn't much for you, but's a ton more than previous performances.

The reality is there's no US ladies skater with a consistent, complete package. Bradie has beautiful jumps, but some of the choreography could be improved and more natural, especially in the LP. Ashley can perform, but the jumps lately are MIA and often filled with carrots. Karen is fantastic when she hits her jumps, but loses her performance ability when she doesn't hit. Mirai needs to work on presentation, but is technically on par or above the other US ladies. It's not like any of them are sure bets for the final flight at the Olympics.

Neither the USFS nor the USOC would ever agree to such a solution. And 4CC is much too close to the start of the Olympics to expect skaters to do both / perform well at both.

I agree with what a few posters have said: if it comes to a choice between Mirai and Ashley, I'd go with Ashley. Ashley didn't have such a good season last year, yet she managed to finish 7th at Worlds. You never know what you're going to get with Mirai, and now that she insists on doing the 3a, her results are even more unpredictable.

At least Ashley gives a performance and earns high PCS scores even if her tech isn't perfect. Mirai concentrates only on her tech, which is never perfect anyway, and her performances are flat, so she gets low PCS even when she skates fairly cleanly.

I'd much prefer performers like Ashley, Karen and Bradie. But that's just me.

I can just hear the screaming now if it's Mirai who gets left off the team again. :scard8: