Post-GP/Pre-Nationals report, part 1.
Warning: This is really long to read. Feel free to just read the TL;DR part and move on.
TL
R:
Olympic spot contenders (in the order of likelihood according to me): Nathan Chen, Adam Rippon, Jason Brown, Max Aaron and Vincent Zhou
4CC spot contenders (again in the order of likelihood according to me): Alexei Krasnozhon, Ross Miner, Alexander Johnson, Grant Hochstein, Tim Dolensky
Top 10 possibilities/the rest of the field: Tomoki Hiwatashi, Andrew Torgashev, Sean Rabbit and Jordan Moeller.
The really likely junior men's winner: Camden Pulkinen
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I have a lot of numbers and calculations I’ve been tracking all season long. That’s in part 2. Namely, I think what you guys are seeking are the bottom line. For you data nerds, the numbers and crunching method is in the next part. Some of this report will feel a bit like a repeat, as I brought some of the stuff in my previous report with a few additional comments from GPF.
One thing is for sure, Nationals is going to be pretty exciting, dramatic and nailbitting!
The Olympic Team contenders (5)
Nathan Chen
If there was a lock on the U.S. Olympic team, Nathan’s it. He’s been undefeated this season. He has beat top men. Never say never (and things can happen ), but it is unlikely he would be in any position where he would lose out an Olympic team berth For Nathan, it’s about how he will score relative to the top men.
Nathan’s SP to Nemisis shows he’s capable of balancing difficult technical content with strong choreography and performance. At GPF he scored maximum GOE in the step sequence. Probably the most frustrating thing about Nathan is the free skate, which has the potential to be amazing. However, given Nathan’s ambitious technical content, which has been hit-or-miss in execution, we have yet to see the artistic vision that he has talked about in interviews. It is not out of the realm of possibility that one of the other men could beat him in the FS, though he should be able to rack up a lead in the SP to hold them off for his second national title.
Adam Rippon
Adam’s success this season has been astounding considering his past struggles. He came in this season with strong resolve and it’s showing in a big way. His GPF performance was less than impressive with several underrotations, including on his elusive 4Z. His best attempt of the jump was at NHK Trophy.
Adam probably had his worst performance this season at GPF, with under-rotated jumps in both the short program and the free skate, but I’m willing to cut him some slack given the crazy turnaround and the shoulder dislocation at Skate America. Out of all the U.S. men (besides Nathan), he’s shown a decent balance between TES and PCS scores, which has enabled to score well all season long.
Adam’s programs stand out to me mainly as they are the type of programs that is crafted to Adam’s strong performance ability. His free skate is a signature program and he was smart to keep it for the Olympic season.
What’s interesting is that the men’s free skate is on the day a year ago when he broke his leg and put himself out of contention for last year’s nationals/world team selection. Adam will be eager for Jan. 6 to be notable for a much more positive reason: the day he secures an Olympic berth.
Jason Brown
Jason’s previous strong traits were consistency and mental toughness. Both seem to be MIA for a good chunk of the GP season. At NHK Trophy, Jason was a ball of nerves, which could be been attributed to his sudden thrust as the leading contender after Yuzuru Hanyu and Patrick Chan withdrew from the competition.
His technical score in the free skate is, for a top contender for the Olympic team, is dismal. He has either URed half of his 3A attempts at all but one competition and after several good quad toes landed at Skate Canada practices, that jump has been MIA too.
That said, when he skates well, he will stand out. The short program shows Jason’s effervesce and joy for skating (not to mention his love of the Hamilton musical). The free skate shows complex choreography and flow that only he can do. And the judges agree. His PCS scores have been quite good and he’s been above 90 in 3 out of 4 of his competitions this season for the free skate.
At GPF, it seemed that Jason turned a corner in the SP with a wonderful performance of Hamilton. But then he struggled again in the FS, though he did score maximum GOE in both his famed half-biellman camel and his choreographed step sequence. However, we also know that Jason was breaking in new boots, which could have contributed to some of the issue.
He’s been quite open in his interviews this season of his frustration of not getting the quad under his belt and that may be seeping into his other jumps, such as the 3A and hitting his usual self-confidence and competitive mettle. Jason does tend to come through when there’s something major on the line; see last year’s Nationals and Worlds for reference. But the pressure of getting on a second Olympic team may be too much. We’ll see.
Max Aaron
During the last Olympic cycle, Max Aaron missed out on a berth by one placement, a major disappointment given that he was the reigning U.S. champion. This season he remains one of the top contenders for an Olympic berth, but he is much more in a dark horse position relative to the others in this group.
What is notable is Max’s solid consistency on his quads. The 4T has been a work in progress for a few years and it’s good to see him landing it regularly along with his solid 4S.
His programs are to warhorses, but Max seems to like skating to both programs and they feel far more natural than some of the other programs he’s skated to during the last four years.
Max’s major weakness is GOE. While he is landing jumps and completing elements, he is not getting major GOE on them, which enables someone with weaker technical content to catch-up. The judges have not quite warmed up to him PCS wise either.
However, I think Max is capable of capitalizing and getting an Olympic spot if he has stellar skates and we see NHK Trophy Jason or GPF Adam.
Vincent Zhou
Vincent is showing shades of Ashley Wagner with the inconsistent SPs and the need to make major comebacks in the free skate. He needs to conquer that SP demon if he wants a shot at making the Olympic team. Some of his quads seem to be hit-or-miss as far as inconsistency and he does have issues with under-rotations.
Vincent’s PCS is quite low, even considering he’s coming out of juniors. His PCS scores are on par with the people who are in the bottom half of the top 10. He’s had to make some decisions and it seems he’s chosen to rack up the TES points as much as he can – and he does have the highest TES average out of all the men.
We’ve also seen Vincent emerge from a sub-par fall to completely dazzle everyone at Nationals and beyond, so I’m reluctant to write him off at this point.
4CC contenders (5)
Alexei Krasnozhon – Wow, this kid! He’s been on a slow-and-steady improvement all season long and he certainly capped it off with a super big win at JGPF. His 3A is arguably the best of ALL the men in this U.S. men’s field and he has some super awesome –3Lo combos in his arsenal. The 4Lo is still a work in progress and I don’t think we’ll see the 4S he’s been working on just yet, but he can rack up the TES points without both jumps, as his JGPF FS showed. Of course he can stand to work on non-jump elements and his PCS, but he’s a tough and gritty competitor and I think he has a great shot at reaching his goal of a top six finish and perhaps both a Junior Worlds and a 4CC berth. Keep in mind that Alexei is not a U.S. citizen, so would not be eligible for the Olympics.
Ross Miner – Oh Ross. There is so much to love about his skating. He has really nice basics and is a great performer. His Macklemore short program has the potential to be a huge standout program if he could land the jumps – but alas he actually has the lowest average TES of ALL the men here in the SP.
Ross seems to love Queen just as much, if not more, than the Shibutanis love Coldplay, but somehow people still enjoy watching him to skate to that music. Ross makes far too many technical errors for me to even consider him a dark horse for an Olympic spot, but I think he as a great shot of finishing his career with another top 6 finish and a trip to 4CC, which seems to be his good luck event – he medaled in the event (just behind Daisuke Takahashi and Patrick Chan) in 2012.
Grant Hochstein – Grant, in theory, should have been a dark horse for an Olympic spot, but his GP and challenge results have been dismal when you consider he’s finished in the top 4 two years in a row and turned in a top 10 performance at Worlds in 2016. But Grant does seem to improve as the season goes on and I won’t be surprised if he turns in two really good performances. With Adam and Jason both back on the field, I think another podium (i.e. pewter) finish will be challenging, but I think he’s a strong contender for 5th or 6th and a 4CC spot.
Alexander Johnson – Alexander also tends to dial it up for Nationals. He’s finished 6th for the last two years. He had a very impressive competition at Nebelhorn, turning in a new personal best and breaking 80 points in the short program. His performance at Golden Spin, which was this past weekend, was far less impressive, especially in the free skate. Alexander is another great performer and if he could get those jumps, including his really nice 3Z-1L-3F combo, in line, he can put himself in the position to go to his first ISU championship.
Timothy Dolensky – His last competition internationally was the U.S. International Figure Skating Classic. His performance there was quite poor in the free skate and he hasn’t been able to secure any other assignments since. He had good performances to win Eastern Sectionals. He does train with Alexei Krasnozhon in Dallas, which might prove beneficial from an improvement standpoint. He has great musicality and great programs (I’m glad to see his Mumford and Sons SP for another season) but like the rest of this field, save for Alexei, he needs to hit those jumps.
The rest of the field (4)
Tomoki Hiwatashi – After a solid JGP season that included two bronze medals, Tomoki won sectionals with a FS that included an impressive 4T-3T combo. Word on the street is that he’s switched coaches (from Kori Ade to ????) and now is training in World Arena. We’ll see if the switch yields him good results at Nationals. I am hoping he’ll keep his programs, choreographed by Rohene Ward, as I do think they showcase the improvements he did make while he was with Kori. I think Tomoki has a great shot at improving on his 15th place finish from last year and getting a junior worlds berth.
Andrew Torgashev – He’s injured, which resulted in some dismal performances lately, including a sub-100 free skate at JGPF. Andrew tweeted that he will come back strong at Nationals, so I’m hoping it’s not too severe. Torgashev has some nice skating qualities that judges do appreciate – he consistently scores higher PCS relative to his other junior competitors – but he has been struggling on jumps, especially the triple axel. He and Tomoki will like battle for a junior Worlds spot.
Sean Rabbit – He was at the U.S. Figure Skating Classic. Sean went back to last season’s programs, including his popular Perez Prado free skate, where he earned a new personal best (domestically) at last year’s Nationals. He won Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for Nationals. Sean’s continued to struggle with the 3A, so I think it will be tough for him to improve to even match his 8th place finish. Still, it is great to see Sean continue to improve in other ways, even at age 27.
Jordan Moeller – He was in Lombardia Trophy. He placed second in Midwestern sectionals behind Alexander Johnson. He seems to show signs of improvement on the 4S, but it’s not quite soup yet. He managed to get a top 10 finish at U.S. Nationals last season with two really good skates, but like Sean, I think that will be tough to repeat that result this season.
Edited
The likely junior men winner (1)
Camden Pulkinen: It occurred to me that I should mention Camden, especially in light of his very great JGPF result! I have actually been tracking his scores as well but found out he won't be in the senior's men field nationally. In any case his improvements since last season have been noteworthy. He looks good to get his junior men's title. Let me put it this way: Camden's season's worst score: 203.80. His season best: 217.10 The highest scoring junior man who qualified for sectionals: Alex Wellman, 189.47.
The biggest question is whether USFS will send Camden or simply the highest ranking seniors who are junior eligible. They went with Alexei Krasnozshon last year (last year's junior champ) so I think Camden has a great shot!
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