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This article seems to assume Mirai is already selected for the team. Do they know something we don't?
https://www.popsugar.com/fitness/Who-Mirai-Nagasu-44370842
It's 95% likelihood that Mirai is going to the Olympics. It's not like we're overflowing with skating superstars at the moment.
95% is high, I wouldn't even put it at 50%. We aren't overflowing with superstars, but she typically does not skate her best at Nationals. I'd say, based on current form, Bradie is most likely to be on the podium, followed by Ashley. Mirai, Mariah, Karen, and a few others have legitimate shots at the podium, too. Mirai might be the slight favorite of that group but, again, she usually isn't at her best at Nationals. It's not hard to imagine her missing the 3A and then seeing the entire program fall apart.
I'm not a medical professional nor have I personally examined her. I've not heard of any official medical report, but in fairness I don't follow skaters' twitter accounts specifically. I do not know if the injury is serious, or if it is a typical "pains and aches" as you describe them, or if this is season threatening.
So, my statement, insofar as my personal knowledge of the situation is honest. She's claimed an injury. Read the rest of the sentence "and those take time to heal" which is an acknowledgement that I am taking her at her word.
Injury of any sort would be worrisome at this stage of the season, I imagine.
This article seems to assume Mirai is already selected for the team. Do they know something we don't?
https://www.popsugar.com/fitness/Who-Mirai-Nagasu-44370842
They call her a "hopeful", so no, I don't think they do
But the article says, that at the Olympics she will be the one to watch,
The only woman I'd give >50% is Bradie, and that's only based on her performances this season. She seems very consistent and relatively high-scoring compared to her competition. Everyone else is in a jumble of skaters, any of whom could skate well or bomb out. Or they could skate mediocre, and find that's good enough. Mirai is in that group, but I am personally rooting for her.
Based on everything over the past 1.5 seasons, I'd have them like this as to likelihood to make the team:
Bradie/Ashley
Karen/Mirai
Mariah/Courtney
Angela/Polina/Caroline/Amber/Starr/Emmy
Really, that's about half of the field competing. Amazing!
Why Courtney ahead of Angela? I thought Angela had one of the highest-scoring jumps of the season, but had a huge consistency problem (but so does Courtney). Otherwise, that seems about right. I don't think there's a sure bet anywhere in the field. Bradie's having a great year, but she'll have to medal at Nationals.
Based on everything over the past 1.5 seasons, I'd have them like this as to likelihood to make the team:
Bradie/Ashley
Karen/Mirai
Mariah/Courtney
Angela/Polina/Caroline/Amber/Starr/Emmy
I don't know how it's going to end up - it may be a surprise to everyone. But - it seems that Bradie is fast becoming a favorite. It may be that she'll have a stellar competition at Nationals or it may be she'll get the yips from all the attention and expectation. She's like so many skaters that have excelled when they weren't expected to and therefore have nothing to be nervous about. I'm seriously in "wait and see" mode with her.
I think Bradie and Ashley will be on the team, however, which one / both gets the team event / certain program of the team event intrigues me