NHK Trophy Preview

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Joe, if Mao finishes 2nd, then she's out and Rochette makes it. If Mao finishes 3rd and Fumie and Nakano go 1/2 ... then they're in and she's still out.

I agree. I said if Mao finishes 2nd which will knock off one of the other two as well as herself (and will let in Rochette) Much of this is dependent on Mao's finish! A veeeery interesting competition.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

Thanks for the additional numbers, Oscilla. That's interesting that Oda does five of his eight passes after the halfway mark.

Joe made a good point, too. Lambiel has to hit his triple Axel or he gives back a lot of his advantage in base value.

They both have excellent skills in other areas and are crowd favorites, so we'll see.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Even if he doubles his triple axel Lambiel is still ahead of Oda in jump value. He will outscore Oda in spins in footwork and PCS in the long program. If they are close after the short Lambiel will have to make alot of mistakes to lose, unless there is some home cooking judging.

 

[Mathman]

Even if he doubles his triple axel Lambiel is still ahead of Oda in jump value. He will outscore Oda in spins in footwork and PCS in the long program. If they are close after the short Lambiel will have to make alot of mistakes to lose, unless there is some home cooking judging.

That does not seem so clear to me. In spins, comparing Oda's Skate America LP with Lambiel's Skate Canada LP, they both did three level threes and one level four. Oda's spins were worth 11.80 base value + 1.8 GOE. Lambiel got 11.30 + 1.9.

In step sequences, Oda 6.20 -0.14, Lambiel 6.20 +1.10.

In prgram component scores, at Skate America Oda got 73.80 (Lysacek got 73.60 ), compared to Lambiel's 75.20 at Skate Canada. (That's about the difference between 7.50 and 7.25, which I think is about right -- although Lambiel is capable of higher with a perfect program.)

Even without home cooking, Oda may respond to the crowd (but the Japanese fans like Stephane, too.)

Put all this together -- I think Lambiel needs his two quads and a triple Axel to make sure.

 

[slutskayafan21]

That does not seem so clear to me. In spins, comparing Oda's Skate America LP with Lambiel's Skate Canada LP, they both did three level threes and one level four. Oda's spins were worth 11.80 base value + 1.8 GOE. Lambiel got 11.30 + 1.9.

In step sequences, Oda 6.20 -0.14, Lambiel 6.20 +1.10.

In prgram component scores, at Skate America Oda got 73.80 (Lysacek got 73.60 ), compared to Lambiel's 75.20 at Skate Canada. (That's about the difference between 7.50 and 7.25, which I think is about right -- although Lambiel is capable of higher with a perfect program.)

Even without home cooking, Oda may respond to the crowd (but the Japanese fans like Stephane, too.)

Put all this together -- I think Lambiel needs his two quads and a triple Axel to make sure.

Lambiel got higher on PCS at Skate Canada for a badly flawed program, and an old program, then Oda did at Skate America for a program with one mistake. With fewer mistakes the gap is much bigger.

Lambiel scored higher in step sequences at their first events as you just showed.

Lambiel had all level 4 spins in his short, he should have it in his long by NHK as well which he did not at Skate Canada. His spins also were below his usual standard at Skate Canada, which he was clearly unready for.

Yet Lambiel needs 6 additional points in jump value to win without mistakes according to you? You are crazy, unless there is the home cooking element I spoke of. Then again you are the same one who thinks Lysacek could have won Worlds last year with a clean short, that Lysacek could have scored the 80+ in the short to win Skate America this year with a clean short, and that Cohen deserved her PCS in the Olympic free skate last year so.......

 

[Mathman]

Nah, but Stephane is crazy if he goofs off on the jumps in the hopes that the judges will give him the gold medal because they like his pretty spins and footwork.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Nah, but Stephane is crazy if he goofs off on the jumps in the hopes that the judges will give him the gold medal because they like his pretty spins and footwork.

He wont win if he misses a bunch of jumps but he can easily afford to double his triple axel if he does not make alot of other mistakes.

 

[Mathman]

The key word is sure. In men's figure skating the only way to be sure is to outjump the other guy by a substantial margin. Anything less, and you put your fate in the hands of the opinions of the judges. They might like you, they might not.

If Stephane doubles his triple Axel but otherwise they both hit everything, according to Oscilla's numbers this will put Lambiel ahead by only 1.72 points -- before GOEs.

Program component scores, spin levels -- maybe, maybe not.

To me, that's not enough to be sure.

 

[demarinis5]

I don't think Mao will skate 2 solid programs. My prediction is that Fumie will take Gold. Mao's SA botched free skate performance did outscore Fumie's SC score but only by a few points. What Fumie has the Mao does not is mental toughness and experience. JMO

 

[slutskayafan21]

The key word is sure. In men's figure skating the only way to be sure is to outjump the other guy by a substantial margin. Anything less, and you put your fate in the hands of the opinions of the judges. They might like you, they might not.

If Stephane doubles his triple Axel but otherwise they both hit everything, according to Oscilla's numbers this will put Lambiel ahead by only 1.72 points -- before GOEs.

Program component scores, spin levels -- maybe, maybe not.

To me, that's not enough to be sure.

Oda never scores as high as Lambiel in PCS in the long program. Also keeping in mind I said without alot of mistakes, which means you can throw comparing the SA and SC scores of the two out the window as Lambiel made alot of mistakes at SC, the PCS would show a clear difference between the two.

Lambiel at Skate Canada had 4 major jump errors at Skate Canada ASIDE from doubling the triple axel. He fell on his quad, got no credit for the triple toe after the quad and did not insert it elsewhere, doubled a triple flip late, and semi-fell on the second quad. Oda had 1 major jump error at Skate America. Yet Lambiel's no triple axel program, with 4 other major mistakes was only 3 points behind Oda's 1 major jump mistake performance at Skate America.

If Lambiel needs the triple axel in the long program, assuming he makes limited number of mistakes in the short and long to win NHK then there is definitely some home cooking going on.

Lambiel also can add a double loop onto one of his jumps, gain another 1.5.

 

[chuckm]

You are forgetting the home ice factor. That can have a lifting effect on both PCS and GOE. Oda is a big favorite at home, and that will work to his advantage.

If Asada finishes second and that puts Joannie Rochette in and Asada and Meissner out, I think the ISU should re-evaluate the tiebreak formula. It would make MUCH more sense to go by TOTAL POINTS first, and then if there is a tie, go for the highest placement.

Joannie Rochette and Sarah Meier would have made the final instead of the 2006 Worlds and 2005 GPF Champions simply because they won one event, while Meissner and Asada will have medaled at both their much more competitive events, but did not win one. Meanwhile, Rochette and Meier finished 4th in their other event. Skate Canada and CoR , where Rochette and Meier won their gold medals, were much easier events competitor wise than Skate America and TEB, where Asada and Meissner won their bronze medals. Asada and Meissner both beat Meier at Skate America, and Meissner beat Rochette at TEB. Neither Meier nor Rochette ever beat Asada or Meissner during the GP series.

 

[slutskayafan21]

You are forgetting the home ice factor. That can have a lifting effect on both PCS and GOE. Oda is a big favorite at home, and that will work to his advantage.

I thought COP was supposed to eliminate that sort of thing. Funny how the more things change the more things stay the same though.

Also IIRC last year didnt Lysacek skate 2 clean programs, and lose to Oda who fell in his long program? Especialy given where Oda's presentation skills were at that point in time that seems very fishy to me.

 

[R.D.]

If Asada finishes second and that puts Joannie Rochette in and Asada and Meissner out, I think the ISU should re-evaluate the tiebreak formula. It would make MUCH more sense to go by TOTAL POINTS first, and then if there is a tie, go for the highest placement.

Agreed. :agree: And I think the ISU really needs to sit down and re-think the formula of the GP. With the new Cop system many things can be changed (like having the highest point totals be the tiebreaker, for instance). Or even having the 6 skaters with the highest point totals independent of event making the GPF.

 

[Kasey]

Total points, Meier would probably still be in. And all this stuff about more and less competitive events....it's kind of bollocks. A TRUE competitor will rise to their best form despite the actual competition. But that's just my opinion, of course.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Total points, Meier would probably still be in. And all this stuff about more and less competitive events....it's kind of bollocks. A TRUE competitor will rise to their best form despite the actual competition. But that's just my opinion, of course.

If Meier was in the kind of fields they had at Skate America, Skate Canada, or Eric Bompard would it have mattered whether she rose to the occasion or not really? Likewise for Meissner and Asada, if they were not in such strong fields in their initial events would it have mattered that they didnt as much as it hurts them now?

 

[R.D.]

Exactly. If you tally up the point totals for the weak competitions, without spoiling any results the points simply can't compete with those in the "stronger" fields.

 

[Mathman]

I like the selection criteria for the Grand Prix final just fine. The original idea was to have the the winners of the six separate events square off against each other in the final. The current tie-breaking convention preserves that spirit.

Talking about what Meissner might have done if she had not done what she did, or about how strong the field might have been if it had not been the strength that it actually was, or about what might have happened if what happened hadn't happened -- well, OK, whatever rocks your boat.

The fact of the matter is -- you show up, you skate, you win, you're in the finals.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Even if he doubles his triple axel Lambiel is still ahead of Oda in jump value. He will outscore Oda in spins in footwork and PCS in the long program. If they are close after the short Lambiel will have to make alot of mistakes to lose, unless there is some home cooking judging.

SF - There is a move on among some fans to dump Lambiel for whatever reason. He has been branded as a skater without a 3A which has suddenly become the most important jump in Men's figure skating. They wont acknowledge that the quad is more difficult because he is more than adequately consistent with that powerful jump. The evil horns continue to point at the 3A. Unfortunately, he will get a downgrade of a 3A even if he lands it perfectly because his nonfans want it that way, They have built his entire performance on the 3A and nothing else.

Oda is quadless but he is like Tara, a cute bouncy type around the arena, and that in itself can win the hearts of the judges. He will also hit the most important jump, the 3A because he does not have a quad. The 3A is important when Lambiel is in the mix, not the quad. I believe reflections of higher points in other areas will occur for a perfect 3A.

I don't buy comparing points of individual elements from competition to competition because judges have individual preferences. That is obvious in looking at protocols from one competition to another.

I don't expect Lambiel to win here for several reasons. I am just hoping he gets the proper share of the points He will be in the GPF and back in Europe.
The contest then becomes the two Euros v. the Two Japanese with Evan as the dark horse.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

If Meier was in the kind of fields they had at Skate America, Skate Canada, or Eric Bompard would it have mattered whether she rose to the occasion or not really? Likewise for Meissner and Asada, if they were not in such strong fields in their initial events would it have mattered that they didnt as much as it hurts them now?

Meier was in Skate America and her slow careful moving style almost beat Mao!!
Who was held up?

Joe

 

[Mathman]

They wont acknowledge that the quad is more difficult because he is more than adequately consistent with that powerful jump.

Quad toe = 9.0 points. Triple Axel = 7.5 points. Over and out.

Unfortunately, he will get a downgrade of a 3A even if he lands it perfectly because his nonfans want it that way,...

I'm not sure what you are saying here. Do you think that the Technical Specialists downgrade Lambiel's triple Axels because Lambiel's non-fans want them to? Or are you saying that the Technical specialists are non-fans who are just waiting for a chance to pounce on him?

IMHO, the reason that a quad gives you such a tremendous advantage over a skater who does not have a quad is quite simple. You can do a quad AND a triple Axel and blow your opponent away. That way you don't have to worry about all those judges who are hell bent on picking on you.