2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

[Metis]

^ Sure, that’s absolutely fair! Just wanted to say I see things differently.

I’m still working on my Skate Canada live recap...I might post it before the start of the next GP, LOL, but I definitely came away feeling good about Mariah. I was unsure about her Celine Dion SP, but it was very well received by the audience, which may partially be because we were in the land of Celine. But I really enjoyed it, never the less.

I’m looking forward to reading the recap, whenever you have the time to write everything down and post it! [emoji106]

Yeah, the Celine is... I guess it reminds me of how old I am? In that Celine was dated and uncool when I was young, and MHWGO was mostly a cheese/nostalgia track played for the memories and the lulz. It’s like seeing juniors skate to Elvis — I can maybe believe you actually listen to this music for fun and picked it yourself, but mostly it screams “Someone a generation older selected my music,” as it’s hard to see how Celine, for example, was part of Mariah’s teenage music canon. Maybe she’s just really into Celine, in which case: you do you. But the music choice puts me on the wrong edge from the start, as it feels like a choice someone thirty or forty years older would make for a love song.

I found her free more enjoyable, in that it was pretty, but MamaMetis turned to me after Mariah struck her final pose and said, “So, what was that? It was pretty, but what else?” (MamaMetis is perhaps responsible for giving me the sharp tongue genes. [emoji38]) There was never a “moment” for me in that free skate. It was a very nice performance, but it was as if the performance volume was on the same setting the whole way through. It is a great music choice, though, and the programme could be ... more, but it wasn’t textured enough for me at SCI. Doesn’t mean it won’t ever be. I do think she’s a lock for the Worlds team, and barring consistency issues, probably the best of the US ladies at the moment — her technical abilities aren’t on par with Bradie’s, but she has more natural artistry and a quality that seems to endear audiences to her, whereas Bradie often comes across as cold (the packaging, choreo, and stiff knees don’t help).

I‘d be curious to hear your take on Mariah as a performer, as the experience of those at SCI seem to be overwhelming positive and suggest that Mariah has a natural charm and ability to win over the audience. Maybe it’s getting lost on a tablet screen.

 

[andromache]

I do think she’s a lock for the Worlds team,

Don't forget that the World team is only two ladies this year. (Not that you may have actually forgotten, but I know I do sometimes. )

Right now, it seems like Bradie and Mariah are the best bets. But we haven't seen Gracie yet, and Angela or Starr or Karen (or anyone else) could play spoiler at Nationals.

Will be interesting to see how USFS handles there only being two spots. If whoever comes in second at Nationals has a poor GP/CS season, we could see that person getting passed over for someone else.

(If Alysa Liu is National Champion, then USFS gets to handpick both ladies who get to go to Worlds....but USFS should probably stick with whatever two senior-eligible ladies place highest at Nationals.)

 

[Metis]

Don't forget that the World team is only two ladies this year. (Not that you may have actually forgotten, but I know I do sometimes. )

I tend to see USFS’s choices for Worlds teams as (1) one known quantity with a relatively high floor and (2) one person peaking at the right time and, when (3) is an option, whomever does well at Nats/has an outside chance/needs experience but isn’t our hope yet. I ... can’t imagine USFS sending Karen with only two spots (really one, since Bradie has one unless she’s injured or totally melts down), as she’s got that inconsistent rep, plus the drama, plus the new GOE range really killing her TES due to UR calls being a reduction in both lower BV and negative GOE.

As for Gracie, I would love to see her make a comeback and enjoy skating, but I would be surprised if she’s truly battle-ready this year. If she hits the ice running at Rostelecom, though, all bets are off.

Liu is also a factour... though unless Mariah has issues going forward, I think she should be second choice for Worlds, even if she finishes fourth at Nats. There needs to be an investment in building talent over the long term, not just throwing whomever peaks at Nats into the mix and hoping for the best. Especially with the new scoring system. (Which is another reason Karen makes me go “eeech,” as reputation is going to be an issue for GOEs, if we’re being honest.) Raf’s stock price is also at an all-time high with Nathan winning WC18 and SkAm while in university, which is arguably another point in Mariah’s favour.

I don’t think any of the US women are at risk of making the podium at Worlds, but assuming Mariah and Bradie stay relatively consistent, they might accidentally place well enough to earn back that third spot.

To be honest, the US lady I’m most excited about is Audrey Shin, but she needs to land the jumps. Her skating skills are quite good for her age, strong spins, the 2A was very Eteri-esque in terms of transitions, oodles of personality... but down on both triples with no combo. [emoji24][emoji24][emoji24]

 

[Ice Dance]

Well, during the GP seasons for the last two years, no one has seen Karen making the World team so that's nothing new but also not very helpful when it comes to accurate predictions. I just hope she comes back healthy from this recent injury. Her name keeps coming up on competition lists so at least she seems to be on the competitive track (as opposed to the "taking a break" track), and it does seem that USFS is ready to get her out there whenever she is ready.

I do not think U.S. Nationals is predictable at this point. (In any discipline). It does seem like Bradie and Mariah are off to a good start among the age-eligible senior ladies.

 

[macy]

I tend to see USFS’s choices for Worlds teams as (1) one known quantity with a relatively high floor and (2) one person peaking at the right time and, when (3) is an option, whomever does well at Nats/has an outside chance/needs experience but isn’t our hope yet. I ... can’t imagine USFS sending Karen with only two spots (really one, since Bradie has one unless she’s injured or totally melts down), as she’s got that inconsistent rep, plus the drama, plus the new GOE range really killing her TES due to UR calls being a reduction in both lower BV and negative GOE.

As for Gracie, I would love to see her make a comeback and enjoy skating, but I would be surprised if she’s truly battle-ready this year. If she hits the ice running at Rostelecom, though, all bets are off.

Liu is also a factour... though unless Mariah has issues going forward, I think she should be second choice for Worlds, even if she finishes fourth at Nats. There needs to be an investment in building talent over the long term, not just throwing whomever peaks at Nats into the mix and hoping for the best. Especially with the new scoring system. (Which is another reason Karen makes me go “eeech,” as reputation is going to be an issue for GOEs, if we’re being honest.) Raf’s stock price is also at an all-time high with Nathan winning WC18 and SkAm while in university, which is arguably another point in Mariah’s favour.

I don’t think any of the US women are at risk of making the podium at Worlds, but assuming Mariah and Bradie stay relatively consistent, they might accidentally place well enough to earn back that third spot.

To be honest, the US lady I’m most excited about is Audrey Shin, but she needs to land the jumps. Her skating skills are quite good for her age, strong spins, the 2A was very Eteri-esque in terms of transitions, oodles of personality... but down on both triples with no combo. [emoji24][emoji24][emoji24]

Alysa Liu isn't age eligible to compete internationally as a senior at all, so she will most likely be sent to jr. worlds.

I don't think its realistic to expect Gracie to come back guns blazing, opening a can of whoop-*** this season. she hasn't competed in almost 2 years, and wasn't training for a big chunk of that. this season will most likely be adjusting back into competing and getting her feet back under her. I don't expect her to have a full arsenal of triples back yet either. I'm just happy to have her back more than anything.

I do think if they don't have complete meltdowns at nationals we will see Bradie and Mariah go to worlds, unless someone surprises us. who knows if Karen will compete at all before Nats since she's injured, and if not, she won't have any competitive body of work behind her this season at all. Not to say that won't hold USFS back from selecting her if she does well at Nats over one of them.

 

[Metis]

I do not think U.S. Nationals is predictable at this point. (In any discipline). It does seem like Bradie and Mariah are off to a good start among the age-eligible senior ladies.

I have a feeling Karen will withdraw from Rostelecom, but who knows? After missing Worlds, the boot drama, and her withdrawals, I keep forgetting she hasn’t missed that much of this season — it just feels like longer since she hasn’t been active since the Olympics. On the other hand, I had no idea she was injured, so I assumed her absence was largely due to a decision to take a break. Please don’t rush your recovery, Karen.

Nats are definitely not predictable at this point, but it’s fun to look back and laugh at how wrong you were. Actually, I should go back to my plan of betting on tail-end outcomes... in which case, Bradie has a disaster skate at Nats after a less than stellar season and doesn’t make the Worlds team, but someone we’d never expect (Gracie? Liu? Karen?) places first and does. It’s that kind of timeline.

 

[oatmella]

Karen has withdrawn from like her last 4 competitions - so her name on competition lists doesn’t necessarily mean much.

I don’t know if US Nationals is that unpredictable at this point in every discipline - seems that there are clear frontrunners in mens and ice dance.

 

[chuckm]

Alysa Liu isn't age eligible to compete internationally as a senior at all, so she will most likely be sent to jr. worlds.

Alysa isn't even age eligible to compete at JUNIOR Worlds 2019 or any other junior event. She would have had to be 13 by July 1, 2018 and of course she wasn't, or she would have been on the JGP this year. She's had to compete as an ADVANCED NOVICE this season, because that's the only level for which she's eligible.

I can't see Alysa winning the Senior title under those circumstances, since she can't compete at any ISU championship event.

 

[Ice Dance]

Karen has withdrawn from like her last 4 competitions - so her name on competition lists doesn’t necessarily mean much.

No, it doesn't. Which is why, to me, it is more important that Karen returns healthy than worrying about whether she will make this year's World team. Rostelecom, after all, has been booked since June. But I do think it is interesting that she is now listed for Tallinn Trophy also.

ETA: Alysa could possibly get an invite for a second international event in advanced novices. The Greens had two the year they were too young to compete internationally in juniors.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

No, it doesn't. Which is why, to me, it is more important that Karen returns healthy than worrying about whether she will make this year's World team. Rostelecom, after all, has been booked since June. But I do think it is interesting that she is now listed for Tallinn Trophy also.

I could see her wanting to do a smaller event if it's her first back from a major injury. The GPs are high profile in the skating community and people would remember a disappointing performance there a lot longer than somewhere like a Senior B.

 

[Ice Dance]

It's not unusual for Karen to do a late-season Challenger. She's been at Tallinn before, even when skating a full GP. But it's also possible USFS has signed her up in the hope that she will be able to compete then, and she still might not be ready for the competition. Still, if there was no hope, I wouldn't think they would sign her up. If she is healthy & ready, she could do Rostelecom and fly straight to Tallinn. (Thereby, at least having a shot at some world standing points for the regular season).

 

[MarinHondas]

I tend to see USFS’s choices for Worlds teams as (1) one known quantity with a relatively high floor and (2) one person peaking at the right time and, when (3) is an option, whomever does well at Nats/has an outside chance/needs experience but isn’t our hope yet. I ... can’t imagine USFS sending Karen with only two spots (really one, since Bradie has one unless she’s injured or totally melts down), as she’s got that inconsistent rep, plus the drama, plus the new GOE range really killing her TES due to UR calls being a reduction in both lower BV and negative GOE.

As for Gracie, I would love to see her make a comeback and enjoy skating, but I would be surprised if she’s truly battle-ready this year. If she hits the ice running at Rostelecom, though, all bets are off.

Liu is also a factour... though unless Mariah has issues going forward, I think she should be second choice for Worlds, even if she finishes fourth at Nats. There needs to be an investment in building talent over the long term, not just throwing whomever peaks at Nats into the mix and hoping for the best. Especially with the new scoring system. (Which is another reason Karen makes me go “eeech,” as reputation is going to be an issue for GOEs, if we’re being honest.) Raf’s stock price is also at an all-time high with Nathan winning WC18 and SkAm while in university, which is arguably another point in Mariah’s favour.

I don’t think any of the US women are at risk of making the podium at Worlds, but assuming Mariah and Bradie stay relatively consistent, they might accidentally place well enough to earn back that third spot.

To be honest, the US lady I’m most excited about is Audrey Shin, but she needs to land the jumps. Her skating skills are quite good for her age, strong spins, the 2A was very Eteri-esque in terms of transitions, oodles of personality... but down on both triples with no combo. [emoji24][emoji24][emoji24]

Audrey is a nice artistic skater. The short program you linked was REALLY not her best. I quite enjoyed her long from that competition. It was better jump wise and showed off her lyrical skating. Looks like it was taken down though as I can't find it anywhere.
She has some solid skating skills as you mentioned and is very musical. Just checked and she won North Atlantic Junior ladies regionals and skated a long with two 3-3's. Both second 3t's were called UR. She seems to struggle with under-rotations and has Karen's coach so I don't expect them to be fixed, unfortunately.
(Little fun fact: she also already has gotten sponsorships and ads. She's an Under Armour ambassador. Here's her commercial- https://twitter.com/AudreyShin4/status/1048059614221164544 )

 

[Sjs5572]

Alysa isn't even age eligible to compete at JUNIOR Worlds 2019 or any other junior event. She would have had to be 13 by July 1, 2018 and of course she wasn't, or she would have been on the JGP this year. She's had to compete as an ADVANCED NOVICE this season, because that's the only level for which she's eligible.

I can't see Alysa winning the Senior title under those circumstances, since she can't compete at any ISU championship event.

I agree. TPTB will provide Bradie a huge PCS cushion of about 20 points over the sp/lp to ensure that she overtakes Alysa. To get the gold, Alysa needs two clean programs with a few 3A's and a 4Lz, and Bradie will need to somewhat falter

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I agree. TPTB will provide Bradie a huge PCS cushion of about 20 points over the sp/lp to ensure that she overtakes Alysa. To get the gold, Alysa needs two clean programs with a few 3A's and a 4Lz, and Bradie will need to somewhat falter

I'm not sure. The judging at US Nationals tends to not reflect the PCS gaps we see internationally. Bradie of course will (and deserves to) have a cushion, but if Alysa skates well I think her marks would be closer than they would be in a non-domestic event.

 

[Sjs5572]

I'm not sure. The judging at US Nationals tends to not reflect the PCS gaps we see internationally. Bradie of course will (and deserves to) have a cushion, but if Alysa skates well I think her marks would be closer than they would be in a non-domestic event.

I hope you're right!

 

[Ice Dance]

I'm not sure. The judging at US Nationals tends to not reflect the PCS gaps we see internationally. Bradie of course will (and deserves to) have a cushion, but if Alysa skates well I think her marks would be closer than they would be in a non-domestic event.

Out of curiosity, how close do you think their TOTAL scores would be in a non-domestic event if she, perchance, did two triple axels? PCS gap included. That's what I'm wondering. (I've heard this discussion about PCS before, but I'm not hearing the people who are discussing it discuss the TES comparison). I would also expect Bradie's score, itself, to be higher than it would be internationally.

I'm expecting Alysa to probably have some technical challenges in her very first competition at Senior Nationals. Both because she may take a lot of risk and because it will be her very first competition at Senior Nationals. I am not sure what she would be capable of earning if she went clean in an international competition. Nor is anyone else as there is no way for us to know when she is not allowed to compete two senior programs internationally.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Out of curiosity, how close do you think their TOTAL scores would be in a non-domestic event if she, perchance, did two triple axels? PCS gap included. That's what I'm wondering. (I've heard this discussion about PCS before, but I'm not hearing the people who are discussing it discuss the TES comparison).

I'm expecting Alysa to probably have some technical challenges in her very first competition at Senior Nationals. But I am not sure what she would be capable of earning if she went clean in an international competition. Nor is anyone else as there is no way for us to know when she is not allowed to compete two senior programs internationally.

I think if she wins over the crowd, she could win over the judges. This is one of the reasons I believe Courtney struggles at Nationals. Her skating checks all the boxes that makes the international judges happy, but she is overshadowed by skaters here who have less intricate but more crowd-pleasing programs. It seems to have been like this a long time; Naomi Nari Nam had a great LP to win the silver medals at Nationals years ago, but technically it was far inferior to the skaters finishing just behind her.

 

[vesperalvioletta]

Wait, what?? The US allows skaters who aren't even junior eligible yet to skate at senior nationals? I'm so lost.

 

[Sjs5572]

Wait, what?? The US allows skaters who aren't even junior eligible yet to skate at senior nationals? I'm so lost.

Yes. The skater needs to pass his/her senior test, rank top 4 at senior regionals at then top 4 at senior sectionals.

 

[Ice Dance]

Wait, what?? The US allows skaters who aren't even junior eligible yet to skate at senior nationals? I'm so lost.

Alysa won Junior Nationals last year. She is 13. The same age Beatrisa Liang was at her first nationals. I was thinking Michelle Kwan was also 13, but per wikipedia, Michelle was only 12. (Alysa competed as a senior at home this summer & at regionals. I believe she has won everything she has entered this season, but I'm not sure if the events I have followed are everything she has entered. She also won her international assignment at the Asian Open in Advance Novices, and she is the first novice lady to have a triple axel ratified in international competition). She has come up through the national ranks with Pooja and Ting, who will both be debuting at Senior Nationals as well.